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Quinnipiac University Polling Institute - Download as DOC

VIEWS: 9 PAGES: 11

									Peter Brown, Assistant Director,
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
(203) 582-5201

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.
Public Relations
Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026

 FOR RELEASE: MARCH 3, 2010

  CORBETT LEADS UNKNOWNS IN PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR’S RACE,
              QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
            VOTERS OPPOSE RENDELL SALES TAX PLAN
 Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett has a 43 – 5 percent lead over State Representative
 Sam Rohrer for the Republican nomination for governor and holds double-digit leads over the
 top Democratic candidates, all of whom who are virtual unknowns even to their own party
 members, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
        “Don’t know” leads the field for the Democratic nomination with 59 percent, followed by
 Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato with 16 percent, State Auditor General Jack Wagner
 with 11 percent, 2004 U.S. Senate nominee Joel Hoeffel at 10 percent and State. Sen. Tony
 Williams at 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
        Gov. Ed Rendell remains unpopular with voters as he completes his final year in office,
 as voters disapprove 49 – 43 percent of the job he is doing, unchanged from December 17.
        Voters say 49 – 6 percent Gov. Rendell’s plan to increase state spending next year by 4.1
 percent was too much rather than too little. Another 35 percent say it’s about right.
        By a 53 – 40 percent margin, voters oppose the Governor’s plan to raise more money by
 cutting the state sales tax but expanding items covered by it.
        “The Democratic candidates for Governor are almost invisible men as far as the voters
 are concerned. One of them will win the nomination, but at this point they are so closely
 bunched together and such mystery men to the vast majority of primary voters that any result is
 possible, given that the primary is little more than 10 weeks away,” said Peter Brown, assistant
 director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “In a four-candidate race, the possibilities
 are endless.”
                                               -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/March 3, 2010 – page 2
       Onorato and Wagner are the best known of the four Democrats and 64 or 65 percent of
Democrats don’t know enough about them to have an opinion. Hoeffel is unfamiliar to 73
percent and Williams to 93 percent.
       Corbett isn’t a household name by any stretch, but at least half of voters statewide have
an opinion about him, and by 43 – 7 percent it is favorable, which explains his lead in the polls.
For Rohrer, 91 percent don’t know enough about him.
       If the election were held today Corbett would defeat Onorato 42 – 32 percent, Wagner
42 – 30 percent and Hoeffel 41 – 30 percent.
       Gov. Ed Rendell, who is barred from seeking a third term by law, is well known to
Pennsylvania voters and not all that favorably, as his 49 – 43 percent disapproval continues an
eight-month negative streak.
       Rendell’s rating looks pretty good compared to the State Legislature, which gets a
59 – 29 percent disapproval rating from the voters, better than 64 – 25 percent December 17.
        “Rendell’s budget plan strikes Pennsylvania voters as too generous in tough times.
Almost half, 49 percent, say his spending plans are too much, while only 6 percent think the state
should be spending more money. A third, 35 percent, think it’s about right.”
       Democrats back Rendell’s proposed changes to the sales tax with a bare 51 – 41 percent
majority, while independent voters oppose it 53 – 40 percent and Republicans overwhelmingly
oppose it 66 – 28 percent.
       Another Rendell tax plan to tax energy companies drilling in the state’s Marcellus Shale
on the value of the natural gas they produced gets plurality support, 49 – 41 percent.
       “Such narrow support for a tax on energy companies – a traditional political whipping
boy – is an indication of the general anti-tax mood of the electorate,” said Brown.
       From February 22 – 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,452 Pennsylvania voters, with
a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 649 Democrats, with a
margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, and 605 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4
percentage points.
       The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the
nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
follow us on Twitter.




                                                                                                     2
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held
today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams and Joe Hoeffel,
for whom would you vote?

                     REGISTERED DEMS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom

Onorato              16%   16%    16%
Wagner               11    13      9
Williams              2     1      2
Hoeffel              10    13      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1     1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2     1      3
DK/NA                59    55     61

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were
being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams,
and Joe Hoeffel, for whom would you vote?

                     REGISTERED DEMS...............
                     Mar 3   Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21
                     2010    2009    2009    2009

Onorato              16     14      14      16
Wagner               11      7      11      16
Williams              2     na      na      na
Hoeffel              10      8      12      na
Knox                 na      5       5      13
Doherty              na      6       8      na
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1       3       1
DK/NA                59     59      46      54


3. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held
today and the candidates were Tom Corbett and Sam Rohrer, for whom would you vote?

                     REGISTERED REPS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom

Corbett              43%   47%    39%
Rohrer                5     6      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -     -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2     3      1
DK/NA                49    44     55

TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being
held today and the candidates were Tom Corbett and Sam Rohrer, for whom would you vote?

                     REGISTERED REPS...............
                     Mar 3   Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21
                     2010    2009    2009    2009

Corbett              43     38      42      31
Rohrer                5     na      na      na
Gerlach              na     12      13      13
Meehan               na     na      na       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1       -       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2       2       -
DK/NA                49     47      43      48

                                                                                           3
4. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were
Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   HsHolds

Onorato              32%      3%   64%       23%   28%   36%   32%
Corbett              42      77    15        40    50    34    42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1     -         1     1     -     -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       -     1         2     1     1     1
DK/NA                24      19    19        33    20    28    25

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Onorato              57%     56%   21%       23%   25%   40%   21%
Corbett              31      16    46        45    53    42    50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1     -         2     -     -     1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1     2         1     3     1     1
DK/NA                10      26    31        29    18    17    27

TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were
Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30
                     2010     2009      2009

Onorato              32       30        28
Corbett              42       45        47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        1         1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1        1         1
DK/NA                24       22        24


5. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were
Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   HsHolds

Wagner               30%      4%   63%       19%   30%   30%   36%
Corbett              42      76    14        40    48    36    38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1     -         1     1     1     -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       -     1         2     -     2     1
DK/NA                26      19    22        37    20    32    25

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Wagner               39%     51%   25%       26%   30%   30%   23%
Corbett              35      17    42        45    50    46    48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1     -         2     1     -     1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       1     1         -     -     1     1
DK/NA                22      29    32        27    19    22    28




                                                                                         4
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were
Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30
                     2010     2009      2009

Wagner               30       33        29
Corbett              42       43        44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        1         1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1        1         1
DK/NA                26       23        25

6. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were
Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                               Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   HsHolds

Hoeffel              30%      3%   61%       20%   27%   32%   34%
Corbett              41      75    15        39    49    34    39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1     -         1     1     -     -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       -     1         2     2     1     2
DK/NA                27      21    23        37    21    33    25

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Hoeffel              31%     57%   22%       37%   21%   19%   22%
Corbett              40      10    43        40    52    49    48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1     -         2     -     -     -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1     1         1     4     1     1
DK/NA                28      31    33        20    23    30    28

TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were
Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Mar 3    Dec 17
                     2010     2009

Hoeffel              30       30
Corbett              41       46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1        1
DK/NA                27       23

12. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds

Favorable            20%     10%   29%       17%   19%   20%   22%
Unfavorable           8      11     5         9    10     7     9
Hvn't hrd enough     71      78    64        73    70    71    69
REFUSED               1       1     1         1     1     2     -

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable            65%     11%   10%        9%   25%   39%    6%
Unfavorable          24       1     1         4    15    24     3
Hvn't hrd enough      9      86    86        87    57    36    90
REFUSED               1       1     3         -     2     1     1

                                                                                          5
TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30     Jul 21
                     2010     2009      2009       2009

Favorable            20       18        17         16
Unfavorable           8        9        11          6
Hvn't hrd enough     71       72        71         78
REFUSED               1        1         2          1


13. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                                                                    Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men   Wom   HsHolds

Favorable            20%     14%   29%       18%        23%   18%   19%
Unfavorable           7       8     4         7          8     6     6
Hvn't hrd enough     71      76    65        74         68    74    73
REFUSED               2       3     2         1          2     3     2

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable            41%     17%   14%       12%        19%   29%   18%
Unfavorable          19       1     3         5         12     7     4
Hvn't hrd enough     38      79    79        82         64    64    75
REFUSED               2       2     3         1          5     1     2

TREND: Is your opinion of Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30     Jul 21
                     2010     2009      2009       2009

Favorable            20       22        22         18
Unfavorable           7        5         6          4
Hvn't hrd enough     71       72        71         76
REFUSED               2        1         1          1


14. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                                                                    Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men   Wom   HsHolds

Favorable            15%      9%   20%       15%        16%   14%   23%
Unfavorable           7       8     5         6         10     4     6
Hvn't hrd enough     77      81    73        78         72    81    71
REFUSED               1       1     1         1          1     1     1

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable            11%     28%   11%       29%         8%    9%    7%
Unfavorable           4       7     5        16          8     2     4
Hvn't hrd enough     85      62    80        54         82    88    88
REFUSED               -       2     3         1          1     -     1


                                                                                           6
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30
                     2010     2009      2009

Favorable            15       13        13
Unfavorable           7        7         7
Hvn't hrd enough     77       79        80
REFUSED               1        1         1


15. Is your opinion of - Tony Williams favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                                                                    Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men   Wom   HsHolds

Favorable             3%      1%    5%        2%         3%    2%    3%
Unfavorable           2       2     1         2          2     2     1
Hvn't hrd enough     95      96    93        96         94    95    96
REFUSED               1       1     1         1          1     1     -

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable             -       6%    1%        5%         2%    1%    2%
Unfavorable           3       -     -         2          6     1     1
Hvn't hrd enough     97      93    96        92         90    98    96
REFUSED               -       -     3         1          2     -     1


16. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                                                                    Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men   Wom   HsHolds

Favorable            43%     62%   32%       39%        53%   35%   46%
Unfavorable           7       3    11         9          8     7    12
Hvn't hrd enough     48      35    55        50         39    55    40
REFUSED               2       -     2         2          1     2     1

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable            47%     24%   37%       41%        53%   50%   49%
Unfavorable           7       7    10         8          4     5     9
Hvn't hrd enough     46      67    49        51         41    44    41
REFUSED               1       2     4         1          2     1     1

TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30     Jul 21
                     2010     2009      2009       2009

Favorable            43       43        43         38
Unfavorable           7        6         7          6
Hvn't hrd enough     48       50        49         55
REFUSED               2        1         1          1


                                                                                           7
17. Is your opinion of - Sam Rohrer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

                                                                              Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men        Wom        HsHolds

Favorable             5%      7%    3%        4%         6%         4%         6%
Unfavorable           3       4     2         3          4          3          2
Hvn't hrd enough     91      87    94        93         89         93         91
REFUSED               1       2     1         1          1          1          -

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Favorable             2%      5%    2%        3%         1%         4%         9%
Unfavorable           2       -     -         5          5          3          5
Hvn't hrd enough     96      95    94        91         91         93         85
REFUSED               -       -     4         1          4          -          1


18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

                                                                              Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men        Wom        HsHolds

Approve              43%     26%   60%       42%        40%        46%        42%
Disapprove           49      70    27        52         55         43         48
DK/NA                 8       3    14         6          5         11         10

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve              34%     68%   41%       62%        31%        33%        32%
Disapprove           48      26    53        30         63         60         61
DK/NA                18       6     6         8          6          7          7

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as
Governor?

                                                              APPROVE.......        DIS...
                                                              High    Low           High
                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30     Jul 21     Feb 7   Jul 21        Jul 21
                     2010     2009      2009       2009       2007    2009          2009

Approve              43       43        42         39         61         39         39
Disapprove           49       49        51         53         30         53         53
DK/NA                 8        7         6          8          9          8          8

19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                                                                              Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men        Wom        HsHolds

Approve              29%     23%   41%       24%        26%        32%        30%
Disapprove           59      67    47        62         65         53         60
DK/NA                12      10    12        14          9         15         10

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve              29%     39%   26%       36%        24%        25%        25%
Disapprove           56      44    63        56         61         62         63
DK/NA                15      17    11         8         15         13         12

                                                                                             8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                                                                         APPROVE.....
                                                                         High    Low
                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30     Jul 21     May 28     Apr 10 Dec 17
                     2010     2009      2009       2009       2009       2003    2009

Approve              29       25        27         27         42         49     25
Disapprove           59       64        64         57         40         24     64
DK/NA                12       11         9         15         18         27     11


23. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania
today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very
dissatisfied?
                                                               Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds

Very satisfied        2%      1%    3%        -          1%         2%     2%
Smwht satisfied      37      23    55        34         35         39     39
Smwht dissatisfied   37      42    29        38         37         36     37
Very dissatisfied    23      33    12        28         26         21     22
DK/NA                 1       1     1         -          -          1      1

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Very satisfied        1%      1%    3%        2%         3%         2%     -
Smwht satisfied      49      46    40        44         29         26     30
Smwht dissatisfied   32      37    29        35         42         44     39
Very dissatisfied    16      16    27        18         24         27     29
DK/NA                 2       1     -         1          -          -      1

TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania
today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very
dissatisfied? (*Low also 39% Sep 2009)
                                                             VERY+SMWHT....
                                                             High    Low
                     Mar 3   Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 Jun 5       Mar 3
                     2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2002    2010

Very satisfied        2        4         2          3          6          8      2
Smwht satisfied      37       38        37         38         50         60     37
Smwht dissatisfied   37       38        36         35         29         22     37
Very dissatisfied    23       19        23         22         13          8     23
DK/NA                 1        2         1          1          2          3      1

26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?

                                                                          Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men        Wom    HsHolds

Approve              36%     19%   52%       34%        35%        37%    35%
Disapprove           53      72    36        54         56         51     54
DK/NA                11       8    12        11          9         13     11

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Approve              26%     72%   35%       50%        22%        23%    25%
Disapprove           62      23    55        37         68         68     63
DK/NA                12       5    11        12         10          9     13

                                                                                         9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?

                     Mar 3    Dec 17    Sep 30     Jul 21     Mar 25     Feb 12
                     2010     2009      2009       2009       2009       2009

Approve              36       38        34         33         44         42
Disapprove           53       54        60         60         43         47
DK/NA                11        8         7          7         14         11


34. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust
more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign – Dan Onorato,
Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel?

                     REGISTERED DEMS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom

Onorato              19%     19%   20%
Wagner               15      21    11
Williams              4       3     4
Hoeffel              14      16    13
NO DIFF(VOL)          5       4     5
DK/NA                43      37    47


35. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe
most shares your values - Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel?

                     REGISTERED DEMS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom

Onorato              18%     17%   18%
Wagner               14      20    10
Williams              4       4     4
Hoeffel              13      16    11
NO DIFF(VOL)          3       3     4
DK/NA                48      40    54


36. Governor Rendell has proposed a state budget for next year that would raise spending
by four point one percent next year. Do you think the increase is too much, not enough or
about right?

                                                                              Union
                     Tot     Rep       Dem   Ind        Men        Wom        HsHolds

Too much             49%     62%   33%       53%        53%        45%    46%
Not enough            6       5     7         6          6          6      9
About right          35      23    49        31         32         37     35
DK/NA                11       9    11        10          9         12      9

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Too much             47%     30%   48%       44%        54%        57%    56%
Not enough            6      12     6         5          7          3      5
About right          33      48    36        41         30         31     28
DK/NA                14       9    10        11          9          9     11




                                                                                        10
37. Governor Rendell has proposed cutting the state sales tax from six percent to four
percent but extending it to cover many items that are not currently taxed. In all, the
taxes are aimed at raising about an additional five hundred million dollars in revenue.
Do you support or oppose this change in the state sales tax?

                                                              Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind   Men    Wom    HsHolds

Support              40%   28%    51%    40%    40%    40%    43%
Oppose               53    66     41     53     54     52     51
DK/NA                 7     7      7      7      6      9      6

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Support              43%   47%    31%    45%    30%    38%    40%
Oppose               49    41     64     46     67     59     53
DK/NA                 8    12      6      9      4      3      7


38. Governor Rendell has proposed that energy companies drilling for natural gas in
Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale pay a new tax based on the value of the energy they
produce. Do you support or oppose this new tax?

                                                              Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind   Men    Wom    HsHolds

Support              49%   38%    60%    52%    53%    45%    57%
Oppose               41    51     29     40     40     41     34
DK/NA                10    11     10      9      6     14      9

                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Support              50%   54%    45%    58%    33%    42%    50%
Oppose               42    32     44     31     56     49     41
DK/NA                 7    14     10     10     11      9      9




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