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					CHARTING Hamilton’s Labour Market:
Past, Present and Future




                                I N PA R T N E R S H I P W I T H




         JANUARY 2010
                                      P R E PA R E D B Y
                         SUMMARY               CHARTING Hamilton’s Labour Market:
                                                       Past, Present and Future
n Major Trends
§ The focus of attention for this study is the demand for and supply of labour in the City of Hamilton over the period from
  2006 to 2016. Despite the temporary negative impacts of the recent recession on the demand for workers in the
  area, the near term (to 2016) and longer term (to 2031) pressures for growth in the area will be strong.
§ Strong underlying demand for workers – coupled with growing rates of retirement – means many new workers will be required in the area
  between now and 2016.
§ Total employment in the City will increase by almost 29,000 people between 2006 and 2016, from just over 197,000 in 2006 to 226,000 in
  2016, due to economic growth.
§ Some 21,000 of the people holding jobs in Hamilton in 2006 could retire by 2016.
§ Thus the City needs more than 50,000 new workers between 2006 and 2016 to fill the 29,000 new jobs created through economic
  expansion and the more than 21,000 made available due to retirements.
n The Demand for Labour in Hamilton
§ In 2006 employers provided a total of 197,180 jobs in the City of Hamilton. C4SE’s breakdown indicates that 45,245 of those jobs (or 23
                                                                                                                          1
  percent) represented economic-base jobs with the remaining 151,935 (or 77 percent) representing community-base jobs.
§ The primary sector (mostly agriculture in Hamilton) and mining (most likely quarrying in Hamilton) accounts for 7 percent of Hamilton’s
  economic-base jobs and manufacturing for 73 percent. Thus the traditional economic-base sectors together account for 80 percent of
  Hamilton’s economic-base employment. The remaining 20 percent is accounted for by regional services (a total of 9,160, including 2,834
  in education and 6,326 in health). The share of jobs offered by Hamilton’s employers in the future will gradually shift away from the primary
  and manufacturing sectors, toward services in general, especially toward health care and social services.

n The Demand for Labour by Major Occupation Group in Hamilton
§ Exhibit S-1 reveals that in absolute terms between 2006 and 2016 the largest occupational gains by major category – including demand due
  to economic expansion and to retirements – are in elemental sales and service occupations (more than 5,700), clerical occupations (almost
  5,300), intermediate sales and service occupations (almost 5,200), professional occupations in health (almost 4,800), and professional
  occupations in social science, education, government services and religion (almost 4,700).
§ These 5 categories together account for almost 26,000 of the City’s new requirements or for more than half the City’s total requirements
  across all 26 occupation groups.
§ Across all occupations the projected turnover rate – that is, requirements stemming both from growth in demand and from retirements
  between 2006 and 2016 expressed as a percent share of the total number of jobs in 2006 – is 26 percent.
§ By major occupation category the highest turnover rate is faced by professional occupations in health at 51 percent, followed by 44 percent
  in assisting occupations in support of health services and 41 percent in technical and skilled occupations in health. The next highest
  turnover rates are faced by paraprofessional occupations in law, social services, education and religion (41 percent), senior management
  occupations (39 percent), skilled administrative and business occupations (35 percent) and professional occupations in business and
  finance (31 percent).
§ The above projections do not take account of the occupational requirements that might result from the expansion of some or all of the
  targeted industries revealed in the City’s Economic Development Strategy. The City’s economic development strategy – which identifies
  future growth opportunities in the areas of advanced manufacturing, Clean-Tech products and services, goods movement, Bioscience
  products and services, Agri-business products and creative industry products and services – all build on inherent strengths in the City and
  seize on rapid shifts occurring world-wide.
§ Successful implementation of the EDS would reap major job benefits in manufacturing, in business services and in transportation-
  warehousing-logistics.

1
 Economic-base (or export-base) industries produce goods that are shipped to markets outside the community (agriculture, manufacturing, etc.), or they provide services to visitors to the community (hotels,
specialized hospitals, etc.) or to businesses outside the community (specialized financial, professional, scientific and technical services). Community-base industries produce services that meet the needs primarily
of the local residents in the community (retail, most medical, primary and secondary education, etc.). Growth typically occurs in a region only if its export-base is expanding.




                                          C H A R T I N G H A M I LT O N ’ S L A B O U R M A R K E T: PA S T, P R E S E N T A N D F U T U R E
               Exhibit S-1
               City of Hamilton Employment by Place of Work by Occupational Group Projections
               Actual in 2006, Net New Positions 2006 to 2016, Potential Retirees 2006 to 2016




                   SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA AND C4SE




n The Demand for Labour by Detailed Occupation in Hamilton
§ Exhibit S-2 summarizes our projections for the 25 largest detailed occupations in 2006.
§ The top 25 occupations in 2006 – out of a total of 520 detailed occupations altogether – will account for almost 15,000 of the new jobs
  created through economic expansion, or for close to half the total number of jobs created in that manner.
§ The top 25 occupations in 2006 account for almost 8,000 – or 37 percent – of the expected retirements between 2006 and 2016.
§ Thus the top 25 occupations in 2006 account for almost 23,000 – or 47 percent – of the positions that will need to be filled between 2006
  and 2016 due to both economic expansion and retirements. By way of comparison, these top 25 occupations accounted for 39 percent of
  all the jobs available in the City in 2006.
§ The top 25 in 2006 account for 19 of the top 25 new requirements (due to both economic expansion and retirements) between 2006 and
  2016.
§ The top 5 occupations in 2006 were retail salespersons and sales clerks; registered nurses; food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and
  related occupations; cashiers; and retail trade managers. These 5 accounted for 15 percent of all the jobs in Hamilton in 2006.
§ The top 5 new occupational requirements between 2006 and 2016 – including those due to both economic expansion and retirements –
  includes registered nurses (more than 2,800); retail salespersons and clerks (almost 2,500); nurse aides, orderlies and patient service
  associates (almost 1,500); food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations (more than 1,400); and retail trade managers
  (more than 1,200). These five account for 19 percent of the total requirements for new workers in the City between 2006 and 2016.
§ The top 5 in 2006 are almost identical to the top 5 gainers between 2006 and 2016. The difference is that cashiers are among the top 5 in
  2006 but not among the top 5 gainers between 2006 and 2016. Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates is the occupation not
  found in the top 5 in 2006 but found among the top 5 gainers between 2006 and 2016.




                           C H A R T I N G H A M I LT O N ’ S L A B O U R M A R K E T: PA S T, P R E S E N T A N D F U T U R E
                                                                                                                                        § Several occupations in the top 25 in
                                                                                                                                          2006 fall well outside of the top 25
                                                                                                                                          new requirements from 2006 to
                                                                                                                                          2016. The list includes welders and
                                                                                                                                          related machine operators (17th in
                                                                                                                                          number in 2006 but 514th in new
                                                                                                                                          requirements from 2006 to 2016);
                                                                                                                                          material handlers (24th to 54th);
                                                                                                                                          grocery clerks and shelf stockers
                                                                                                                                          (25th to 35th); customer service,
                                                                                                                                          information and related clerks (22nd
                                                                                                                                          to 33rd); and post-secondary
                                                                                                                                          teaching and research assistants
                                                                                                                                          (13th to 29th).
                                                                                                                                        § The demand for community-base
                                                                                                                                          workers will expand significantly in
                                                                                                                                          the Hamilton area as pressure for
                                                                                                                                          growth in the population of the City
                                                                                                                                          mounts. Rapid job expansion in the
                                                                                                                                          communities west of Toronto – most
Actual in 2006, Net New Positions 2006 to 2011 and 2006 to 2016, Potential Retirees 2006 to 2016




                                                                                                                                          notably in Peel, Halton, Waterloo, etc.
                                                                                                                                          – guarantees that the City’s
                                                                                                                                          population will grow, thus propelling
                                                                                                                                          growth in community-base activities.

                                                                                                                                        n The Supply of Labour in
                                                                                                                                         Hamilton
                                                                                                                                        § Though we expect participation rates
City of Hamilton Employment by Place of Work by Occupation Projections




                                                                                                                                          among those 55 and over to increase
                                                                                                                                          in the years ahead many of the City’s
                                                                                                                                          Baby Boomers will nevertheless
                                                                                                                                          retire, a process that starts in 2011
                                                                                                                                          and completes in 2031.
                                                                                                                                        § The City does not have a home-grown
                                                                                                                                          population of younger people large
                                                                                                                                          enough to fill the jobs expected to be
                                                                                                                                          created between 2006 and 2016,
                                                                                                                                          especially if the City’s EDS is
                                                                                                                                          successful in expanding the
                                                                                                                                          economic-base opportunities
                                                                                                                                          available in the area.
                                                                                                                                        § That means migrants, and
                                                                                                                                          increasingly migrants from abroad,
                                                                                                   SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA AND C4SE




                                                                                                                                          will be required to fill the roles
                                                                                                                                          vacated by the Boomers and the new
                                                                                                                                          roles created by economic expansion.
                                                                                                                                        § The challenge across most
                                                                                                                                          occupations and occupational groups
                                                                                                                                          from potential retirements will be
Exhibit S-2




                                                                                                                                          almost as great as the challenge from
                                                                                                                                          economic expansion.