"INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE"
Our research looks beyond individual technologies to analyze developments at the intersections of biotech, information technology, and materials science. We evaluate discoveries and discontinuities that are likely to have major impacts on organizations, ordinary people, and innovators over the next 3–10 years. Our approach to technology forecasting puts humans at the center of the technology horizon, looking beyond technical feasibility to identify the value of new technologies, forecast their adoption and diffusion patterns, and discern new market opportunities and threats. We combine a deep understanding of technological and societal forces to identify and map innovations—helping companies develop insights and strategic tools to better position themselves for the future. In 2010, using our core research on Context-aware Environments, Blended Reality, and Programmable Everything as our compass, we’ll look broadly at how a host of emerging technologies will transform everyday experiences, at both the human scale and the environmental scale. We will take a deep dive into the future of persuasion, forecasting the role of technology and design in five key zones shaping behavior, thought, and action: Learning, Advertising, Politics, Management, and Health. We will also map new directions in automation and robotics. And we will paint a portrait of the next-generation brain, developing the implications of disruptive neurotech for organizations, communities, markets, and individuals. institute for the future teChnoLoGY horizons ProGram Avoid being blindsided by Reduce uncertainty, and Gain an insider’s view of the disruptive technologies ultimately costs, when making many innovations—technical, with our trusted, your technology and new business model, social, and independent forecast of product investment decisions. organizational—emerging in emerging technologies. California’s Silicon Valley, the Identify future, non-obvious San Francisco Bay Area, and large-market opportunities other innovation hot spots. for discontinuous growth as well as competitive risks: Expand your outside “Where’s the market that I network by interacting with don’t currently see?” and learning from individuals from a broad range of industries. researCh aGenDa Humans in a DesigneD WorlD Over the next decade, we will find ourselves living in a world in which everything is programmable. In this world social networks, organizations, and even the human body will be customized to desired specifications. Machines will be programmed as extensions of our minds; tools like nanotechnology, advanced simulations, and reconfigurable robots will reprogram matter and possibly even repair our ailing planet. In 2010, our research tasks will focus on the human and environmental scale implications of this increasingly complex, high-resolution system. The Future of Persuasion “Never before has the ability to automate persuasion been in the hands of so many.” –B.J. Fogg, Director of the Stanford University Persuasive Technology Lab In 2010, the Technology Horizons Program will B.J. Fogg’s pioneering work on persuasive technologies has explore three core research themes: described the use of computers and software to trigger active behavior change. This task will forecast the evolution of 1. The Future of Persuasion persuasion as it becomes transformed by mobile supercomputing for the masses, augmented reality (AR) overlays, connected 2. The Mind in a Designed World collective groups, and real-time data tools over the next 3. Automated for the People decade. What will be the new toolkit for designing persuasive experiences in the work, the home, or the retail environment? How can design interventions be used to make a better future? How can new programming and visualization tools enable us to engineer our behaviors for peace, health, and sustainability? The research report and conference will forecast how new persuasive techniques will shape engagement and action in five key domains: management in the workplace, learning, political action, personal health, and advertising. Additionally, our public blog, the Future of Persuasion, will collect and analyze global examples of design interventions that spurred behavior change, and as a result reconfigured the future. The blog will keep clients abreast of our research as it progresses—keeping them well informed of what we are learning and the impacts of our findings. We are interested in the tools and experiences that change the way we do basic things like drive, eat, or make a phone call, and reorient us toward a better future for the planet and ourselves. The mind in a Designed World regional open meetings: Community & implications This task will describe the tools, technologies, and businesses Building on our 2009 Everything is Programmable, Future of that will define the field of neuroscience and technology in the Video, and Lightweight Innovation research, we will engage coming decade. These innovations are increasing our ability large groups of people to expand the range of perspectives that to modify behavior, treat disorders, interface with machines, inform our forecasts and the implications we draw from them. integrate intelligent prosthetics, build more intelligent artificial During the spring and summer of 2010, we will host a series of intelligence, and illuminate the mysteries of consciousness. regional gatherings that will tap into the collective intelligence of a range of experts and stakeholders in technology. Using an automated for the People open meeting format, we will ask our participants to work with our forecasts and identify strategic implications for stakeholders. After years of speculation, robots that serve a broad array of These meetings, which will take place in locations such as functions are emerging from laboratories and factories to invade Washington, D.C., Chicago, New York, and Silicon Valley, will our houses and organizations. Advances in machine learning provide Technology Horizons members with new opportunities will transform both mobile and fixed autonomous systems into to work with IFTF forecasts and interact with IFTF researchers a dynamic and flexible fabric for efficiency, capacity, safety, and networks. convenience and functionality. Meanwhile, autonomous mega- scale infrastructures for energy, information, transportation and waste will provide new frameworks for configuring societies. In this research task, we’ll create a map of automation and robotics, from mega- to nano-scale, and describe how automation will dramatically alter society, industry, and everyday life. 2010 researCh aGenDa DeLiVeraBLes oVerVieW The Future of Persuasion: a report This theme report will delve into how new persuasive techniques will be used to shape engagement and action for management, learning, politics, advertising, and health. The Future of Persuasion: an interactive Website Our interactive website will include global examples of design interventions that create behavior change and, as a result, reconfigure the future challenges and pathways toward transformation. The mind in a Designed World: a report This report will outline the tools, technologies, and businesses that will define the field of neuroscience and technology in the coming decade. automated for the People: map A ten-year forecast map of automation and robotics, from the mega- to the nano-scale. Proprietary Website > Technology Horizons blog 2010 DeLiVeraBLes > Members-only access to past reports and content member Conferences > Two cross-industry conferences: • Spring 2010: Future of Persuasion • Fall 2010: Automated for the People > Annotated PowerPoint slides and material from conference presentations > A series of regional Open Meetings .Program Cost The Technology Horizons Program is an ongoing, cost-shared research effort. Each member pays $65,000 per year. a sample of deliverables from our 2009 research agenda ProGram memBershiP PROGRAM MEMBERS as of January 2010 Gap naTIonal InTellIGenCe sHaw Hallmark CounCIl Tekes HunGary nCCIT naTIonal semIConduCTor walT dIsney InTel nokIa krafT foods p&G lyn Jeffery mathias Crawford Program Director research manager lyn Jeffery is a cultural anthropologist with an a.B. in History of science whose research focuses on the from Harvard College, mathias is changing nature of identity and reality interested in the conditions in which in a blended digital physical world, scientific knowledge is produced and with special interests in real-time data verified, and in how technologies and in the Chinese-language Internet. develop in response to, and exert she also works with corporate and influence on, social, political, and government clients on mobility, social individual concerns. mathias’ interests media, and the future of work. lyn are mirrored in his work as research has led the Global ethnographic manager for the signtific at the network, a multi-year ethnographic Institute. prior to joining the Institute, research program that experiments mathias worked as an Intellectual with reflective personal forecasting property legal research assistant in methodologies with families in new york City. Brazil, russia, India, China, and mathias received a Thomas T. Hoopes silicon Valley, in order to integrate prize for outstanding scholarly their voices more fully into IfTf’s research for his senior thesis, “The forecasts. additional methodological uncivilized Camera: Television interests include group processes for Technology and the Vietnam war.” collaborative creativity and analysis, online ethnography, and participatory lyn Jeffery, Director community forecasting. Jake Dunagan Technology Horizons Program lyn is fluent in mandarin. In the mid- research Director 1990s she was awarded a fulbright Jake’s research examines the role of doctoral dissertation grant and in 2001 emerging technologies in transforming she received a ph.d. in anthropology subjectivity, culture, and governance, at the university of California, santa and he has been leading explorations Cruz, where her research explored into new methods for communicating the cultural construction of Chinese foresight. Jake is currently completing capitalism. In addition, she taught his phd at the manoa school of futures classes in globalization and the studies on neuropolitics, neuropower, the ProGram team anthropology of contemporary China. she is the co-editor of China urban: and alternative futures for the extended mind. ethnographies of Contemporary Before joining IfTf, Jake was a Culture, as well as author of articles on researcher at the Hawaii research post-socialist entrepreneurialism and Center for futures studies, leading and Chinese network marketing. participating in major foresight projects with the city of Honolulu, state of Hawaii, and the republic of south korea. at the university of Hawaii, he taught courses in visual anthropology and futures studies, and co-organized the Honolulu futures salon. In 2007, along with stuart Candy, Jake launched foundfutures, a series of public multimedia interventions that tangibly manifest alternative futures and create meaningful encounters with possibility. Besides distributed installations such as the “postcards from the future” project, foundfutures has exhibited at well-known galleries in Hawaii and California. Jake holds an ma from Temple university, and a Ba from auburn university, both in Visual anthropology. Tessa Finlev mike liebhold mani Pande Jason Tester Program manager, Distinguished Fellow research manager research & Design manager Technology Horizons Program mike liebhold’s work at IfTf focuses a native of new delhi, India, mani, Jason comes to IfTf with a background since joining IfTf in June of 2008 on proactive, context-aware, and brings an international perspective to in human–computer interaction and Tessa has developed two clear focus ubiquitous computing, as well as social IfTf. she is the quantitative expert has long been interested in both areas. she has been working to further implications and technical evolution at IfTf—her primary responsibilities researching and designing for the develop a knowledge base around of a geospatial web. previously, mike include design, implementation, effects of technology on society. He african issues as well as working to was a visiting researcher at Intel and analysis of surveys. she recently holds a B.s. in human–computer bringing futures thinking to youth. labs, working on a pattern language conducted a survey that looked at interaction design from stanford based on semantic web frameworks future expectations of today’s youth. university, where he helped found Tessa moved to the Bay area from for ubiquitous computing. He’s also she has taught courses on research the stanford persuasive Technology denmark at the age of 7. after earning a co-author of proactive Computing methods and gender. she has also lab, the only research and design her bachelors degree in anthropology through patterns of activity and place. conducted ethnographic work in India group focused on the new field of from university of California, santa most recently, mike has been helping studying women working in the software persuasive technologies. Jason Cruz, Tessa joined the peace Corps. to design and stage collaborative industry. Her research interests include was then in the founding class of she lived in oloitokitok, kenya, mapping workshops with the locative the future of quantitative analysis in students at the Interaction design a village on the slopes of mount media lab, a loosely affiliated network social sciences, global competition Institute in Ivrea, Italy, for a master’s kilimanjaro, where she worked along of geospatial hackers and artists. mike in science and technology, gender, degree also in interaction design. at side locals to implement community publishes his occasional thoughts about and demography. she worked with Ivrea he undertook the “accelerated projects ranging from public health to micro-local and geospatial computing The Times of India and The pioneer democracy” project, a series of community development. on his blog at www.starhill.us. in new delhi as a journalist for five scenarios that uniquely illustrate as program manager for both the years where she wrote about crime, potential futures for technological Technology Horizons and Ten-year education, political, and media issues. voting. This project has been widely Jane mcgonigal forecast programs Tessa is energized Her work has also been featured in featured in the press and formed the by the creative atmosphere surrounding research affiliate & resident The far eastern economic review, basis for his focus on innovating new the brilliant researchers at IfTf and game Designer an international business magazine. methods for integrating design with grateful for her daily invitation to an Jane mcGonigal is a game designer and she also worked with unICef as a long-term futures research. at IfTf, intellectual buffet. a games researcher who specializes in copywriter in new delhi. she has a Jason has focused on three areas: networked experiences for real-world ph.d. in sociology, with specialization research efforts into how people use spaces. as a lead designer for 42 in quantitative analysis. emerging technologies, the application marina gorbis entertainment, she uses ubiquitous of design to futures research, and executive Director, iFTF computing technologies and metaphors facilitating groups using foresight to David Pescovitz a native of odessa, ukraine, marina to explore new social architectures and stimulate insights and implications. research Director is particularly suited to see things create massively scaled, collaborative from a global perspective. she has play. as a researcher, she focuses on david pescovitz is the writer-in- directed international programs and residence for university of California, anthony Townsend the ways in which collective gaming led international development projects has long-term and persistent impacts Berkeley’s College of engineering and Director, for srI (formerly stanford research on the cognitive frameworks, social the Berkeley sciences, and co-editor Technology Development Institute) in China, Japan, Vietnam, relations, public participation, and of the popular weblog BoingBoing. anthony has been researching the India, and eastern europe. marina personal identities of players in net. He is also special projects editor implications of new technology on has also authored publications on their everyday lives. Her games have for make: magazine. In 1996, cities and public institutions for international business and economics, been recognized by awards from pescovitz co-wrote the book reality over a decade. at IfTf, anthony’s with an emphasis on regional the International Game developers Check (hardwired, 1996), based on work focuses on several inter-related innovation and competitiveness. In association and the International his long-running futurist column in topics: pervasive computing, the addition to serving as IfTf’s executive academy for digital arts and sciences, wired magazine where he is still a urban environment, economics and director, marina leads the Technology and in 2006, she was named by mIT contributing writer. pescovitz has demographics, public and nonprofit Horizons program, focusing on the Technology review as one of the top also written for scientific american, organizations, and the media industry. innovation at the intersection of new 35 young innovators changing the popular science, Business 2.0, the prior to joining IfTf, anthony enjoyed technologies and social organization. world through technology. she has a new york Times, the washington post, a brief but productive academic career she has initiated a Global ethnographic ph.d. in performance studies from the salon, and new scientist, among many at new york university, where he network (Gen), a multi-year university of California, Berkeley, and other publications. In 2002, he won directed research sponsored by the ethnographic research program which has taught at university of California, the foresight prize in communication, national science foundation and the tries to develop an understanding Berkeley and san francisco art recognizing excellence in educating department of Homeland security. of daily lives of people in Brazil, Institute. she is also the node runner the public and research community anthony is active in international russia, India, China, and silicon world Champion of 2003. about nanotechnology and other futures research networks, and received Valley, in an attempt to integrate their emerging technologies. pescovitz holds a fulbright scholarship in 2004 to voices into IfTf’s forecasts. she has a Bachelor of fine arts in electronic study the social impacts of broadband also led several major private client media from the university of Cincinnati in south korea. He was one of the engagements at IfTf, the most recent and a master’s in journalism from original founders of nyCwireless, a being a global science & Technology university of California, Berkeley. pioneer in the municipal wireless forecast for the uk Government’s movement. anthony received his ph.d. department of science & Technology. in urban and regional planning from she holds an m.p.p. from the university massachusetts Institute of Technology of California, Berkeley, a certificate in 2003. in international business from the university of london, and a B.a. in industrial psychology, also from the university of California, Berkeley. * ABOUT THE INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE BEcOME A MEMBER TOdAy The Institute for the Future is an independent, nonprofit strategic For more information about the Institute for the Future research group celebrating 41years of forecasting experience. please visit our Web site at www.iftf.org or contact: The core of our work is identifying emerging trends and Sean Ness discontinuities that will transform global society and the global at 650-233-9517 marketplace. We provide our members with insights into business or email@example.com strategy, design process, innovation, and social dilemmas. Our research generates the foresight needed to create insights that lead to action. Our research spans a broad territory of deeply transformative trends, from health and health care to technology, the workplace, and human identity. The Institute for the Future is insTiTuTe For THe FuTure based in Palo Alto, CA. 124 university avenue, 2nd floor palo alto, Ca 94301 *Image source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080103161531.htm 650.854.6322 www.iftf.org