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					                            ACTION FINANCIAL SERVICES (INDIA) LIMITED
                                    Technical Analysis Review & Recommendations
                                              VOL –01 ISSUE-DATE- 10/10/2009

BSE SENSITIV-Dly .22/09/09-15/10/09 I-1                  TREND
Price S M A(30) S M A(60) S M A(200)
                                                        T 15/10/09              22 Sept 09 – 15 Oct 09
                                               17000
                                                        O    17274                  Three weeks
                                               16000    H
                                                        L
                                                             17350
                                                            17093     EXCH     OPEN     HIGH     LOW                CLOSE
                                               15000
                                                        C
                                                        V
                                                             17195
                                                            653856
                                                                      NSE       4977     5110     4904               5108
                                               14000
                                                        S
                                                        S
                                                             16505
                                                             15930
                                                                      BSE      16805 17350 16606                    17195
                                                        S    12702

                                               13000

Volume
                                              4000000
                                                        V 3802550
                                              3750000
                                              3500000
                                              3250000
  09     24   29   O   6   8   12   15        3000000


                           Dow Theory                                              Elliot Wave Theory
Market touched a new 2009 high of 17195 & has corrected              MOVEMENTS WERE ALONG EXPECTED LINES. WE EXPECT
about 3 %. However the up move lacks technical strength.             SENSEX TO BE IN 15600 – 17200 RANGE FOR SEVERAL
WE RECOMMEND BOOKING SOME PROFIT & HOLDING SOME                      WEEKS. WE FEEL THAT THE UPMOVE IS NEARING
CASH ESPECIALLY FOR MEDIUM TERM INVESTORS. WE                        COMPLETION & EXPECT A SHARP BREAK OF THE SIX MTH
RECOMMEND `HOLDS’ FOR BALANCE PORTFOLIO WITH A                       TRENDLINE.THE CURRENT TOUCH POINT IS ABOUT
MARKET STOPLOSS OF 16100 AND INDIVIDUAL STOP LOSSES,                 16600. (REPEAT) WE FEEL THAT A MULTI-YEAR BULL
AS INDICATED. Any sharp fall below 16600 will mean a                 MARKET IS UNDERWAY .IF ONE GOES BY HISTORY, EVEN
break of a 6mth trend line. Such a correction can lead to a          NOW, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A WORST CASE SCENARIO
further 1000- 1200 points fall. WE RECOMMEND PORTFOLIO               OF INDEX HITTING 11000 ON SOME BAD NEWS.IF THIS
REVIEW NOW.                                                          HAPPENS, STRONG BUYING IS RECOMMENDED.


   1. (REPEAT) The US stock markets have continued there up moves, with increasing levels of optimism. TWO
   ELLIOT WAVE EXPERTS HAVE PREDICTED THAT THE US MARKETS MAY CRASH TO ALMOST 50% OF CURRENT
   LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. THEY HAVE BEEN PROVED INCORRECT SO FAR, WITH MARKET MAKING NEW
   HIGHS.
   2      US economic news was mixed. Opinion is sharply divided, if the recovery will falter (W shaped
          recovery) or will continue (U shaped recovery)
   3      The Indian economic news has been negative /neutral. SW Monsoon has failed. However there have been
          very bullish forecasts about high economic growth over the next 10-15 years. India, as per these reports,
          has reached a critical per capita GDP, leading to a virtuous cycle of more money, investment,
          consumption etc. Skills & young population (& political stability for at least 4 yrs) are also positive factors.
   4      Technical analysts are somewhat cautious about their medium term predictions. AN INDIAN ELLIOT WAVE
          SPECIALIST, WITH A GOOD TRACK RECORD, IS PREDICTING A STEEP FALL OF MORE THAN 3000 POINTS, IF
          SENSEX BREAKS 16500 SHARPLY.
   5      Despite huge FII flows, the up move has not been strong in terms of volume & width. MARKET HAS NOT
          RESPONDED TO GOOD CORPORATE NEWS. RIL & INFOSYS ARE RECENT EXAMPLES. MARKET HAS FALLEN ON
          MANY DAYS, THOUGH GLOBAL CUES WERE POSITIVE. WE THEREFORE FEEL THAT A SUBSTANTIAL
          CORRECTION IS UNDERWAY.
   6      In technical parlance, the up move from March 09 low of Sensex @ 8000 has formed a 7 mth-trend line.
          This is moving up @ 300 points per week & the current touch point is around 16600. If this holds, sensex
          can be around 20,000 by Dec 09/Jan10 & 24000 by April/May10. THIS DOES APPEAR VERY OPTIMISTIC. We
          feel that the trend line will break & the market will undergo correction /consolidation for several weeks.
   7. (Repeat) Larger Elliot wave patterns & longer range expectations: We have been able to fit market
   movements from April 03 (Sensex 2900) to Jan 08 (Sensex 20300) & from Jan08 to March 09 (Sensex 8000).
   These have been irregular patterns, which are unusual but acceptable. As per Elliot wave theory, Indian
              markets are again in a multi year bull run. There is a possibility that the market may go down to Sensex
              11000. This will not change the longer-term view. Approximate targets are: 19000 within 4 months, 21000
              within 15 months.
              8. WE RECOMMEND BOOKING PROFIT (OR SMALL LOSS) IN PETRONET LNG & FORTIS HEALTHCARE. BOTH
                 HAVE PROPOSED LARGE RIGHTS ISSUES & MAY REMAIN SUBDUED FOR NEXT FEW MTHS
              9. WE RECOMMEND HOLD WITH REVISED STOP LOSSES IN THE CASE OF COROM FERT (T-225,
                SL 180), DCM SHRIRAM CONS (T-100, SL -55). WE RECOMMEND BOOKING LOSSES IN ION EXCHANGE (T –
                160, SL 120) AS STOP LOSS HAS BEEN HIT. T –TARGET, SL – STOP LOSS.
              10. Market moved above 17000 & has corrected. Please watch out for the following negative indicators,
              which may signal an intermediate top:

                            Lower closing for 4 continuous days. (Has not yet happened)

              Market has not responded to good local and/or global news. THIS IS A NEGATIVE SIGN

              Market breaks the trend line in a sharp way. The touch point is at 16600 & moving up
                   @ 300 points per week. CURRENTLY THE MARKET IS AT THE TOUCH POINT

              Market has stayed ABOVE THE 50DMA, which is currently at 15900. Market is very much ABOVE THE 150 DMA
              CURRENTLY AT 13700.




                                                              REVIEW
                                                   OUR RECOMMENDATIONS ARE:

        LONG TERM INVESTORS – PLEASE REVIEW PORTFOLIO PERIODICALLY SAY EVERY SIX MONTHS. ADD GOOD QUALITY
        SHARES IN SMALL LOTS. DO HAVE SOME CASH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DIPS/ VOLATILE MOVES. WE RECOMMEND `
        HOLD’ IN GOOD QUALITY SHARES.

        DESPITE ALL THE NEGATIVE NEWS, WE HAD EXPECTED THE MARKET TO RALLY UPTO 16000 BY JUNE 09. WE
        RECOMMEND A PORTFOLIO REVIEW AS THE INDEX HAS REACHED 17000 LEVELS.

        MEDIUM TERM INVESTORS – WE RECOMMEND PARTIAL BOOKING OF PROFITS & HOLD WITH STOP LOSSES FOR BALANCE
        PORTFOLIO.

TO
                                                            AUTO
     Scrips                    Risk         Recom.          CMP        Stop          Target              Remarks
                                                          15/10/09     Loss
     MAH & MAH               Medium     Hold LT/BPP              962     820               940   Target met
     ASHOK LEYLAND           Medium     Sell                   44.50                     38/42   Targets met
                                                        AUTO ANCILLARY
     Scrips                    Risk         Recom.          CMP        Stop          Target              Remarks
                                                                       Loss
     Bharat Forge            Medium     BPP/ Hold LT          294.40     240               260   Targets met
     Hind Motors             High        Sell                  22.85      21                     Weakness
                                                           BANKING
     Scrips                    Risk          Recom.          CMP       Stop          Target              Remarks
                                                                       Loss
     HDFC Bank               Medium     BPP/Hold LT              1724   1550        1500/1700    Target 2 met
     OBC                     Medium     Hold LT/BPP            256.60    218      200/220/250    Targets 3 also met
VIJAYA BANK       High      Sell                    51.30       38       44/48    Revised targets met
                                                CEMENT
Scrips              Risk           Recom.        CMP          Stop    Target               Remarks
                                                              Loss
Ambuja Cem.       Low       Hold LT                      94.5   100    110/125    Steady at SL level
NCL               High      Hold LT/BPP                36.10     41         48    SL hit
                                         FERTILIZERS & CHEMICALS
Scrips              Risk        Recom.            CMP         Stop    Target               Remarks
                                                              Loss
BASF              Medium    Hold LT/BPP               358.95    285    320/360    Target 2 also met
Tata Chem         Medium    Hold MT/LT                291.90    265    265/340    Small up move
GSFC              Medium    Hold LT                   185.30    163        190    SL revised
                                                   FMCG
Scrips              Risk        Recom.            CMP         Stop    Target               Remarks
                                               15/10/09       Loss
ITC               Medium    BPP/Hold LT              255.85     215    240/275    Target 1 met again
HUL               Low       BPP/Hold LT                  288    265    290/324    Target 1 met again
Colgate           Medium    Hold LT/BPP                  682    590        700    Close to target once more
                                                     I.T
Scrips              Risk        Recom.            CMP         Stop    Target               Remarks
                                                15/10/09      Loss
Prithvi           Medium    Hold MT/ Sell              75.45     67     84/125    Steady
                            on rally
Infosys           Low       Hold LT/BPP             2215.65    2100       2500    Fall after good results
TCS               Low       Hold LT/BPP               582.45    500    400/525    Small fall




                                              ENGINEERING
Scrips              Risk           Recom.        CMP         Stop     Target               Remarks
                                               15/10/09      Loss
HCC               Medium    Hold LT /BPP               139     115      130/170   Target 1 met
Sunil hi-tech     Medium    Hold LT/BPP               182    150       190/210    Target 1 met
Larsen & Toubro   Low       Hold LT/BPP              1691   1540          1700    Met target & correction
                                            OIL /PETROLEUM
Scrips              Risk           Recom.        CMP       Stop       Target               Remarks
                                                           Loss
Chennai Petro     Medium    Sell                     235               180/225    Target exceeded
PETRONET LNG      Medium    Hold LT/BPP                76       71        85/95   Watch stop loss
ONGC              Low       Hold LT/MT               1253     1050    1250/1300   Small break out
RELIANCE          Low       Hold LT/BPP              2171     1950         2300   Correction despite bonus
                                                                                  announcement
                                              PIPES/TUBES
Scrips              Risk           Recom.        CMP         Stop     Target               Remarks
                                                             Loss
Welspun Guj        Medium   Hold LT/BPP            278.85      220         310    Steady
Rajendra Mech       High    Hold MT                 27.55                40/58    Steady
                                             CAPITAL GOODS
Scrips              Risk           Recom.        CMP       Stop       Target               Remarks
                                                           Loss
Siemens           Low       Hold LT/BPP            592.10    540            550   Target met
BHEL              Low       Hold LT/MT            2494.75   1900      2300/2600   Small break out
                                                PHARMA
Scrips              Risk           Recom.        CMP       Stop       Target               Remarks
                                                           Loss
Ranbaxy           Low       Sell /Hold LT             392    335           350    Steep fall after touching
BIOCON            Medium    S
                            Hold MT/LT                261    240           300    411 up move
                                                                                  Good
JUPITOR BIO       Medium    Sell on rally              80     70        90/120    Steady
                                                         POWER
Scrips                    Risk         Recom.            CMP       Stop      Target                Remarks
                                                                   Loss
Reliance Infra         Low         Hold LT/BPP            1276      1180    1300/1500     Target 1 hit again
NTPC                   Low         Hold LT/MT              217       196      240/270     Steady
Tata Power             Low         Hold LT/BPP            1368      1180         1400     Steady
                                                     TEXTILES
Scrips                    Risk         Recom.         CMP          Stop      Target                Remarks
                                                    15/10/09       Loss
Alok Industries        Medium      Hold LT               21.80                   29/38    Weakness once more
                                                     FINANCE
Scrips                  Risk           Recom.         CMP          Stop      Target                Remarks
                                                    15/10/09       Loss
LIC HSG.              Medium       Hold LT/BPP             795       700      To be set   Up move continues
IDFC                  Low          Hold LT/BPP             158       135      140//160    Touched 157 & correction
HDFC                  Low          Hold LT/BPP            2771      2300     2600/2900    Touched 2800 & correction




                                                         HOTEL

Scrips                  Risk           Recom.         CMP          Stop      Target                Remarks
                                                    15/10/09       Loss
Taj gvk               Medium       Sell /Hold LT           149       103           140    Fresh break out
Indian Hotel          Medium       Hold LT                  81                   75/98    Target 1 met
Royal Orchid          Medium       Sell                     74                   60/70    Target 2 met
                                                      METALS
Scrips                  Risk           Recom.         CMP          Stop      Target                Remarks
                                                                   Loss
TISCO                 Medium       Hold LT/BPP               574     470       500/650    Steady above target 1
                                                                                          Steady
                      Medium       Hold LT/BPP               184     150       180/220
SAIL
                                   Hold LT/BPP                                            Steady
Hindalco              Medium                                 135      94       110/130
Hind Zinc             Medium       BPP/ Hold LT              865     660       600/750    Steady
                                                         OTHERS
Scrips                   Risk          Recom.            CMP       Stop      Target                Remarks
                                                                   Loss
Su-Raj Diamond        High         Hold LT/BPP                51      35         45/55    Correction after hitting
                                                                                          target
TNPL                  Medium       Hold MT                    81      75        95/115    Steady
Shipping Corp.        Medium       Sell                      141     130           155    Steady
Balrampur             Medium       Hold MT/BPP               134     120           145    Small break out

            TARGET PRICE: SELL PART HAVE HOLDING DURING RALLY
            ENTRY PRICE: BUY SMALL LOTS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT

            Note:
            BPP              – Book Partial Profits        Technical Analysis / Supported by
            NO RECO          – Watch list                         P.Ramani / Milan Parekh
            LT / MT          - Long Term / Medium Term

            The recommendations are based on technical trends and are for medium term and long-
            term investment. The investor could add on fundamental information to get better
results. As a principle one should apply stop loss limits on the investments
recommended. Depending on the strength of the charts, Investors could send their
queries to us at parekhmilan444@yahoo.co.in



                                 IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
Investment in equity shares has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present
the right investment perspective but we take no responsibility whatsoever for any
financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendation above.

                     ACTION FINANCIAL SERVICES (INDIA) LIMITED
         31, Rajgir Chambers, 12/14, Shahid Bhagatsingh Road, Mumbai-400001
                                    Ph- 40624444.

				
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