Get documents about "action financial services _india_ limited
Document Sample
ACTION FINANCIAL SERVICES (INDIA) LIMITED
Technical Analysis Review & Recommendations
VOL –01 ISSUE-DATE- 10/10/2009
BSE SENSITIV-Dly .22/09/09-15/10/09 I-1 TREND
Price S M A(30) S M A(60) S M A(200)
T 15/10/09 22 Sept 09 – 15 Oct 09
17000
O 17274 Three weeks
16000 H
L
17350
17093 EXCH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
15000
C
V
17195
653856
NSE 4977 5110 4904 5108
14000
S
S
16505
15930
BSE 16805 17350 16606 17195
S 12702
13000
Volume
4000000
V 3802550
3750000
3500000
3250000
09 24 29 O 6 8 12 15 3000000
Dow Theory Elliot Wave Theory
Market touched a new 2009 high of 17195 & has corrected MOVEMENTS WERE ALONG EXPECTED LINES. WE EXPECT
about 3 %. However the up move lacks technical strength. SENSEX TO BE IN 15600 – 17200 RANGE FOR SEVERAL
WE RECOMMEND BOOKING SOME PROFIT & HOLDING SOME WEEKS. WE FEEL THAT THE UPMOVE IS NEARING
CASH ESPECIALLY FOR MEDIUM TERM INVESTORS. WE COMPLETION & EXPECT A SHARP BREAK OF THE SIX MTH
RECOMMEND `HOLDS’ FOR BALANCE PORTFOLIO WITH A TRENDLINE.THE CURRENT TOUCH POINT IS ABOUT
MARKET STOPLOSS OF 16100 AND INDIVIDUAL STOP LOSSES, 16600. (REPEAT) WE FEEL THAT A MULTI-YEAR BULL
AS INDICATED. Any sharp fall below 16600 will mean a MARKET IS UNDERWAY .IF ONE GOES BY HISTORY, EVEN
break of a 6mth trend line. Such a correction can lead to a NOW, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A WORST CASE SCENARIO
further 1000- 1200 points fall. WE RECOMMEND PORTFOLIO OF INDEX HITTING 11000 ON SOME BAD NEWS.IF THIS
REVIEW NOW. HAPPENS, STRONG BUYING IS RECOMMENDED.
1. (REPEAT) The US stock markets have continued there up moves, with increasing levels of optimism. TWO
ELLIOT WAVE EXPERTS HAVE PREDICTED THAT THE US MARKETS MAY CRASH TO ALMOST 50% OF CURRENT
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. THEY HAVE BEEN PROVED INCORRECT SO FAR, WITH MARKET MAKING NEW
HIGHS.
2 US economic news was mixed. Opinion is sharply divided, if the recovery will falter (W shaped
recovery) or will continue (U shaped recovery)
3 The Indian economic news has been negative /neutral. SW Monsoon has failed. However there have been
very bullish forecasts about high economic growth over the next 10-15 years. India, as per these reports,
has reached a critical per capita GDP, leading to a virtuous cycle of more money, investment,
consumption etc. Skills & young population (& political stability for at least 4 yrs) are also positive factors.
4 Technical analysts are somewhat cautious about their medium term predictions. AN INDIAN ELLIOT WAVE
SPECIALIST, WITH A GOOD TRACK RECORD, IS PREDICTING A STEEP FALL OF MORE THAN 3000 POINTS, IF
SENSEX BREAKS 16500 SHARPLY.
5 Despite huge FII flows, the up move has not been strong in terms of volume & width. MARKET HAS NOT
RESPONDED TO GOOD CORPORATE NEWS. RIL & INFOSYS ARE RECENT EXAMPLES. MARKET HAS FALLEN ON
MANY DAYS, THOUGH GLOBAL CUES WERE POSITIVE. WE THEREFORE FEEL THAT A SUBSTANTIAL
CORRECTION IS UNDERWAY.
6 In technical parlance, the up move from March 09 low of Sensex @ 8000 has formed a 7 mth-trend line.
This is moving up @ 300 points per week & the current touch point is around 16600. If this holds, sensex
can be around 20,000 by Dec 09/Jan10 & 24000 by April/May10. THIS DOES APPEAR VERY OPTIMISTIC. We
feel that the trend line will break & the market will undergo correction /consolidation for several weeks.
7. (Repeat) Larger Elliot wave patterns & longer range expectations: We have been able to fit market
movements from April 03 (Sensex 2900) to Jan 08 (Sensex 20300) & from Jan08 to March 09 (Sensex 8000).
These have been irregular patterns, which are unusual but acceptable. As per Elliot wave theory, Indian
markets are again in a multi year bull run. There is a possibility that the market may go down to Sensex
11000. This will not change the longer-term view. Approximate targets are: 19000 within 4 months, 21000
within 15 months.
8. WE RECOMMEND BOOKING PROFIT (OR SMALL LOSS) IN PETRONET LNG & FORTIS HEALTHCARE. BOTH
HAVE PROPOSED LARGE RIGHTS ISSUES & MAY REMAIN SUBDUED FOR NEXT FEW MTHS
9. WE RECOMMEND HOLD WITH REVISED STOP LOSSES IN THE CASE OF COROM FERT (T-225,
SL 180), DCM SHRIRAM CONS (T-100, SL -55). WE RECOMMEND BOOKING LOSSES IN ION EXCHANGE (T –
160, SL 120) AS STOP LOSS HAS BEEN HIT. T –TARGET, SL – STOP LOSS.
10. Market moved above 17000 & has corrected. Please watch out for the following negative indicators,
which may signal an intermediate top:
Lower closing for 4 continuous days. (Has not yet happened)
Market has not responded to good local and/or global news. THIS IS A NEGATIVE SIGN
Market breaks the trend line in a sharp way. The touch point is at 16600 & moving up
@ 300 points per week. CURRENTLY THE MARKET IS AT THE TOUCH POINT
Market has stayed ABOVE THE 50DMA, which is currently at 15900. Market is very much ABOVE THE 150 DMA
CURRENTLY AT 13700.
REVIEW
OUR RECOMMENDATIONS ARE:
LONG TERM INVESTORS – PLEASE REVIEW PORTFOLIO PERIODICALLY SAY EVERY SIX MONTHS. ADD GOOD QUALITY
SHARES IN SMALL LOTS. DO HAVE SOME CASH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DIPS/ VOLATILE MOVES. WE RECOMMEND `
HOLD’ IN GOOD QUALITY SHARES.
DESPITE ALL THE NEGATIVE NEWS, WE HAD EXPECTED THE MARKET TO RALLY UPTO 16000 BY JUNE 09. WE
RECOMMEND A PORTFOLIO REVIEW AS THE INDEX HAS REACHED 17000 LEVELS.
MEDIUM TERM INVESTORS – WE RECOMMEND PARTIAL BOOKING OF PROFITS & HOLD WITH STOP LOSSES FOR BALANCE
PORTFOLIO.
TO
AUTO
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
15/10/09 Loss
MAH & MAH Medium Hold LT/BPP 962 820 940 Target met
ASHOK LEYLAND Medium Sell 44.50 38/42 Targets met
AUTO ANCILLARY
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
Bharat Forge Medium BPP/ Hold LT 294.40 240 260 Targets met
Hind Motors High Sell 22.85 21 Weakness
BANKING
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
HDFC Bank Medium BPP/Hold LT 1724 1550 1500/1700 Target 2 met
OBC Medium Hold LT/BPP 256.60 218 200/220/250 Targets 3 also met
VIJAYA BANK High Sell 51.30 38 44/48 Revised targets met
CEMENT
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
Ambuja Cem. Low Hold LT 94.5 100 110/125 Steady at SL level
NCL High Hold LT/BPP 36.10 41 48 SL hit
FERTILIZERS & CHEMICALS
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
BASF Medium Hold LT/BPP 358.95 285 320/360 Target 2 also met
Tata Chem Medium Hold MT/LT 291.90 265 265/340 Small up move
GSFC Medium Hold LT 185.30 163 190 SL revised
FMCG
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
15/10/09 Loss
ITC Medium BPP/Hold LT 255.85 215 240/275 Target 1 met again
HUL Low BPP/Hold LT 288 265 290/324 Target 1 met again
Colgate Medium Hold LT/BPP 682 590 700 Close to target once more
I.T
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
15/10/09 Loss
Prithvi Medium Hold MT/ Sell 75.45 67 84/125 Steady
on rally
Infosys Low Hold LT/BPP 2215.65 2100 2500 Fall after good results
TCS Low Hold LT/BPP 582.45 500 400/525 Small fall
ENGINEERING
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
15/10/09 Loss
HCC Medium Hold LT /BPP 139 115 130/170 Target 1 met
Sunil hi-tech Medium Hold LT/BPP 182 150 190/210 Target 1 met
Larsen & Toubro Low Hold LT/BPP 1691 1540 1700 Met target & correction
OIL /PETROLEUM
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
Chennai Petro Medium Sell 235 180/225 Target exceeded
PETRONET LNG Medium Hold LT/BPP 76 71 85/95 Watch stop loss
ONGC Low Hold LT/MT 1253 1050 1250/1300 Small break out
RELIANCE Low Hold LT/BPP 2171 1950 2300 Correction despite bonus
announcement
PIPES/TUBES
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
Welspun Guj Medium Hold LT/BPP 278.85 220 310 Steady
Rajendra Mech High Hold MT 27.55 40/58 Steady
CAPITAL GOODS
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
Siemens Low Hold LT/BPP 592.10 540 550 Target met
BHEL Low Hold LT/MT 2494.75 1900 2300/2600 Small break out
PHARMA
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
Ranbaxy Low Sell /Hold LT 392 335 350 Steep fall after touching
BIOCON Medium S
Hold MT/LT 261 240 300 411 up move
Good
JUPITOR BIO Medium Sell on rally 80 70 90/120 Steady
POWER
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
Reliance Infra Low Hold LT/BPP 1276 1180 1300/1500 Target 1 hit again
NTPC Low Hold LT/MT 217 196 240/270 Steady
Tata Power Low Hold LT/BPP 1368 1180 1400 Steady
TEXTILES
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
15/10/09 Loss
Alok Industries Medium Hold LT 21.80 29/38 Weakness once more
FINANCE
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
15/10/09 Loss
LIC HSG. Medium Hold LT/BPP 795 700 To be set Up move continues
IDFC Low Hold LT/BPP 158 135 140//160 Touched 157 & correction
HDFC Low Hold LT/BPP 2771 2300 2600/2900 Touched 2800 & correction
HOTEL
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
15/10/09 Loss
Taj gvk Medium Sell /Hold LT 149 103 140 Fresh break out
Indian Hotel Medium Hold LT 81 75/98 Target 1 met
Royal Orchid Medium Sell 74 60/70 Target 2 met
METALS
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
TISCO Medium Hold LT/BPP 574 470 500/650 Steady above target 1
Steady
Medium Hold LT/BPP 184 150 180/220
SAIL
Hold LT/BPP Steady
Hindalco Medium 135 94 110/130
Hind Zinc Medium BPP/ Hold LT 865 660 600/750 Steady
OTHERS
Scrips Risk Recom. CMP Stop Target Remarks
Loss
Su-Raj Diamond High Hold LT/BPP 51 35 45/55 Correction after hitting
target
TNPL Medium Hold MT 81 75 95/115 Steady
Shipping Corp. Medium Sell 141 130 155 Steady
Balrampur Medium Hold MT/BPP 134 120 145 Small break out
TARGET PRICE: SELL PART HAVE HOLDING DURING RALLY
ENTRY PRICE: BUY SMALL LOTS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT
Note:
BPP – Book Partial Profits Technical Analysis / Supported by
NO RECO – Watch list P.Ramani / Milan Parekh
LT / MT - Long Term / Medium Term
The recommendations are based on technical trends and are for medium term and long-
term investment. The investor could add on fundamental information to get better
results. As a principle one should apply stop loss limits on the investments
recommended. Depending on the strength of the charts, Investors could send their
queries to us at parekhmilan444@yahoo.co.in
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
Investment in equity shares has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present
the right investment perspective but we take no responsibility whatsoever for any
financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendation above.
ACTION FINANCIAL SERVICES (INDIA) LIMITED
31, Rajgir Chambers, 12/14, Shahid Bhagatsingh Road, Mumbai-400001
Ph- 40624444.
