SPC Statisticians 13 by keara


									                                                                               SPC/STATS 13/Information Paper 1
                                                                               25 August 2003

                                                                               Original: English

                               SECRETARIAT OF THE PACIFIC COMMUNITY

                            (Nouméa, New Caledonia, 15–19 September 2003)


                                         (Paper presented by the Secretariat)


1.      The importance of the Millennium Declaration to all aspects of development is incontestable: when
147 heads of state and Government – representing 191 nations including all 189 member states of the UN –
signed the declaration in September 2000 it became an integral part of global development activities. In
particular, the Millennium Declaration identified:

·        eight broad Development Goals (MDGs);
·        18 associated targets; and
·        48 underlying indicators (with more to be developed)1 .

2.     The adoption of these MDGs, targets and indicators had obvious and immediate implications for
development in the Pacific region, with particular relevance for development of the national statistical
systems (NSSs) providing information for the measurement of these indicators.

3.      The link between the MDGs and NSSs is well illustrated by the phrase "if you can't measure it, you
can't manage it". The importance of measuring the state of national development against MDG targets, both
now and in the future, flows on to a need for national statistical systems that can produce timely and reliable
information related to the underlying indicators. This paper aims briefly to assess the present capability of
the region's NSSs to measure those indicators, how that capability has developed in recent years, and the
prospects for improvement in areas where there are still significant deficiencies.

 The full list of goals and targets adopted in 2000 and their associated indicators is reproduced at the end of Annex 1: An
assessment of the region's statistical capacity to measure the MDG indicators
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4.       The conclusion is that many MDG indicators are either already being produced or can be derived
from existing data sources. However, this is due to the commonality of those indicators with existing
national statistical priorities, and is not the result of any concerted move by national statistics offices (NSOs)
in the region to target the production of data for MDG indicators. This lack of NSO focus on MDGs reflects
the fact that Pacific Island NSOs have generally not been involved to any significant extent in the
development and adoption of the MDG indicators - indeed, in early 2003 many were still not aware of the
detailed list of indicators. As an inevitable result of that lack of consultation, many NSOs in the region do not
have an underlying commitment to target those MDG indicators which are not already available, and there
will be no reason for them to do so until convinced otherwise.

5.       In summary, if the MDGs are to be measured as fully and effectively as possible, then there are two
major challenges to overcome. The first and more immediate of the two, is to convince the NSSs of the
region, and NSOs in particular, of the on-going need to integrate relevant MDG indicators into existing
collections and priorities. The second will be to secure additional resources where those additional indicators
can only be measured at some marginal cost to NSSs.

The general capability of the region's national statistical systems

6.      The timing of the Millennium Declaration came close on the heels of FEMM 2000 in Niue, where
the importance to the Pacific region of comprehensive, reliable and timely statistical was discussed as a key
issue. The Ministers stated:

        “20.     We agreed on the need for substantial improvements in statistical collection, analysis and
        dissemination to strengthen policy development and monitoring, increase transparency, and foster
        private sector development in Forum island countries through:
                (i)      institutional strengthening of national statistical offices, where appropriate, with
                         improved capacity through staff training and other forms of technical and financial
                         assistance; and

                 (ii)     greater efforts to establish a core set of priority data compatible with the
                          international formats and standards established by the IMF's General Data
                          Dissemination System (GDDS) and the UN's Minimum National Social dataset
                          (MNSDS). This would also include mechanisms for the regular registration of vital
                          events, including births, deaths and marriages, as well as timely analysis of records
                          of central and local government agencies as a basis for improving social data

  Although the statement did not specifically mention migration statistics it is worth noting that this is a major concern
for some PICTs, with the relative ease of international movement for some countries (eg, between Cook Islands and
NZ) causing major difficulties in the compilation of reliable and up-to-date population estimates.
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7.       This statement implicitly recognised that the general level of official statistics in the region was
significantly less than what was required. But it also provided a morale boost for many NSOs, who had
collectively and often stated the view that a lack of recognition of the importance of their output was a key
factor in their general lack of resources. In many cases NSOs consider that they are facing a "Catch 22"
situation, where a perceived lack of resources has restricted their capacity for statistical collection, analysis
and dissemination, and that has led in turn to a poor assessment of their capacity to utilise additional

8.       The statement from FEMM 2000 was seen by many NSOs as the first step towards improving their
resources, conditions, and public profiles. Since that statement was issued there has been a continuing
dialogue on the importance of statistics, and there is no doubt that improvements can be seen in particular
countries and particular areas. But, despite that progress, some MDG indicators remain at best an
improbability for many NSOs, and at worst they do not appear to be a realistic possibility by the target date
of 2015. In the context of monitoring MDGs this is an area of major concern, and one that is unlikely to be
fully resolved in many countries without significant assistance and encouragement to the NSSs.

9.     On a more optimistic note, some major statistical projects have been established in recent years and
are now beginning to yield significant improvements to regional statistical capacity. These projects and other
major on-going activities of relevance are presented in Annex 2, along with views on the likelihood of them
improving the development, analysis and dissemination of MDG-related information.

Co-operation within national statistical systems

10.      There is a clear need for close and effective co-operation between all agencies involved in the
collection and dissemination of information, and this is particularly true for those involved in the
measurement of items that flow though to the MDG indicators. Resources for regional statistical
development are scarce relative to the overall needs, so it is essential that duplication is avoided and that the
standards, concepts and definitions used in data collection are as consistent and as relatable as possible. The
need for co-operation is particularly evident in relation to those MDG indicators which are measured in the
form of ratios derived from different data sources. For example, if Ministry of Health data for number of
births attended by skilled health personnel covered only those births in hospitals and health-care centres, then
the scope is much narrower than the total population estimates compiled by the NSO. In a case such as this
the ratio will be understated due to inconsistencies in the component measures. If the Health Ministry had no
plans to expand the coverage of its records then a possible solution would be for the NSO to add an
appropriate question to any future demographic and health surveys (DHS), and to do so in close consultation
with the Health Ministry.
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11.     Where measures do bring together data from different agencies there is a very strong need for close
co-operation, not only between the national agencies involved but also including international organisations.
There is a risk of inconsistencies developing where international organisations have formal links with
agencies other than the NSOs - in such cases they can and do get involved quite properly with statistical
work with those agencies, but without necessarily involving the NSO eg, WHO has formal links with
national Health Ministries, and generally works directly with them. Such arrangements are entirely
appropriate, and it is the responsibility of NSOs to minimise the potential for data conflict by developing and
maintaining an active national network including all agencies involved in statistical work. If the importance
of the MDGs is acknowledged then such networks should have a strong emphasis on including all agencies
producing information relating to MDG indicators. This recommendation is consistent with the on-going
encouragement by both SPC and PFTAC for NSOs to implement and maintain national statistical advisory
bodies, comprising all key agencies and preferably reporting to a senior Minister.

12.      There may also be potential problems with intra-regional comparisons of items which are assumed to
be easily definable eg, land area. As an example, mangrove swamps may be treated as part of total land area
in some countries but not in others. Similarly, some countries may define "land area" to include beach areas
(ie, non-arable) that represent a far higher proportion of national land area in small island states than they do
elsewhere3. In cases such as this NSOs can play an important role in examining national practices against
international standards, and liaising with national and international agencies to identify and quantify
differences where appropriate.

13.     Some of the differences cited may appear trivial on a global scale, but in small economies they can
impact on the comparability of what appear at first inspection to be clear-cut measures. This underlines the
importance of having all aspects of Pacific Island national statistical systems co-ordinated to the greatest
extent that is appropriate in the collection and estimation of components of the MDG indicators, and a
widespread awareness of any differences that do exist4.

Measuring MDG indicators - looking ahead

14.     The Pacific region has collectively committed to the ideals of the MDGs, and that commitment will
inevitably flow through to pressure on NSOs and other agencies to produce information on the associated
indicators. But many NSOs do not yet feel any ownership of the list of indicators, and until that is resolved
they will have a natural reluctance to add another set of "international" requirements to their existing lists of
national goals and objectives. Clearly this can be addressed to some extent by formal direction from the
responsible Ministers, but it would be far more effective if NSOs and related agencies were to develop their
own commitment to measuring the MDG indicators.

  Consider for instance the case of Tuvalu, where one-seventh of the land mass of the main island, Funafuti, was lost
during a storm several years ago.
  The term "appropriate" is included to recognise the need to take account of national information priorities in targeting
the production of MDG indicators, something that is clearly recognised in the UN's MDGR Guidance Note issued in
October 2001.
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15.      The first step in this process will be the recognition that the indicators associated with MDGs are
already an integral part of national statistical priorities throughout the region: all FICs have signed up to the
Millennium Declaration, and that official commitment carries with it the responsibility for NSSs to provide
support in measuring MDG indicators as fully as possible. But if NSOs and other national agencies are to
meet these additional targets, then it must also be recognised that they will either require additional resources
or else need to change their existing priorities and collections. This issue is critical to the chances of success
in measuring the full range of indicators, and it needs to be addressed if NSOs and other agencies are to
develop a realistic commitment to supporting the MDGs.

16.    Briefly, the steps outlined below suggest one path by which NSOs and related agencies might
develop a workable commitment to the MDGs:

        (a)     NSOs to take the lead nationally in determining which agency has prime responsibility for
                producing official estimates of each component of the MDG indicators;
        (b)     Carry out a detailed national assessment of current capacity to produce reliable and regular
                estimates of those components;
        (c)     Determine which if any of the recommended indicators cannot be produced by 2015, or
                which need to be adapted to meet national needs;
        (d)     Develop an integrated national action plan that would enable the (adapted) list of indicators
                to be produced effectively to a realistic timetable, including a detailed assessment of
                additional resources and/or changes to existing priorities needed to achieve the production of
                those indicators; and
        (e)     In consultation with national planning and financing agencies, determine if that action plan is
                both feasible and appropriate for national priorities.

17.     The steps outlined above would constitute a major undertaking, and NSOs are unlikely to be easily
persuaded of the need for such an exercise. Although the next triennial meeting of heads of statistics
(RMHS13) meeting is not scheduled until September 2003, it is almost certainly the most appropriate forum
in which to present these issues to a large number of key stakeholders. It is already being proposed that the
draft agenda for RMHS13 will have a very strong focus on the MDGs and their implications for NSSs, and a
wide range of relevant agencies will be invited to participate in those discussions. It is intended that this will
provide NSOs in particular with a much greater awareness of both the purpose and the detail of the MDGs
than they have been given to date, and thus provide them with an opportunity to determine their commitment
to developing additional measures as required.
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18.      The eight MDGs, their 18 targets, and the associated 48 indicators have been developed with the
highest of aims, and that is evidenced by the uniformity with which they have been endorsed. But if
development assistance is to target them effectively then it must be planned on the basis of reliable and
timely information. That aim can only be achieved if national statistical systems are fully aware of MDG-
related needs as well as the expectations their national governments have of them, and have access to
resources that will enable them to meet those needs and expectations. But there are warning signs that
national statistical systems, and NSOs in particular, are not yet fully aware of goals which are being
developed for them, mainly because they have played little or no part in associated discussions. This is a
situation which should be resolved as quickly as possible, principally through the involvement of NSOs in all
national and regional planning for the adoption of MDGs. If this is done then it is far more likely that NSSs,
and NSOs in particular, will work effectively towards the measurement of MDG indicators than if they are
simply directed to do so. But even if NSSs do develop a strong commitment to MDG goals, they will still not
be able to achieve the desired results without adequate resources.

19.     Developing national systems in any field is of necessity a slow process, and is particularly resource-
intensive in specialised fields such as statistics where the skills required are far from intuitive and need to be
built up over time. However, many NSOs have not seen any significant improvement in their resources and
conditions in recent years, and regard this as a major reason for limited progress at the national level towards
the "substantial improvements in statistical collection, analysis and dissemination" sought by the FEMM.
Fortunately, some recent developments - particularly the major ones outlined in Annex 2 - are beginning to
yield significant benefits for NSOs and related agencies, and will continue to do so in the near to medium
future. The challenge now facing us all is to ensure that the adoption of MDGs provides a boost that helps
regional statistical systems to develop further, rather than simply adding another burden which holds us back.
As always, that can only be achieved with full consultation and co-operation of all those involved in regional
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                                                                                                            ANNEX 1

                               TO MEASURE THE MDG INDICATORS

Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

20.      The UN Report Millennium Development Goals: Progress during the 1990s5 stated that "East Asia
and the Pacific is the only region on a path to meet the income poverty target of reducing by half the
proportion of people in extreme poverty by 2015 – a goal the region has come close to meeting in one
decade, before the financial crisis in the region set in." But East Asia has a far greater population than the
Pacific, and lifestyles and economic structures in the two "sub-regions" are markedly different and should be
analysed separately.

21.      Almost no data is available within the Pacific region for the designated indicator, and no NSO is
currently producing official measures of national per capita consumption adjusted for purchasing power
parities (PPP) as recommended. This is a very complex process, and requires considerable effort if it is to be
done properly. If there is any concerted move to improve the regional capacity to produce this indicator
themselves it would almost certainly be better done as a regional project rather than on a country by country
basis, and should very definitely be done in consultation with all agencies involved in providing statistical
assistance to the region.

22.      To increase the regional awareness of PPP the concepts and the uses of such measures will be
presented to NSOs during the Regional Meeting of Heads of Statistics (RMHS13) at SPC in Nouméa,
September 15-19 2003, and the country delegates will be invited to recommend to what extent this should be
a priority area for statistical assistance.

23.      Almost all countries have carried out relatively recent national surveys of household income and
expenditure, and those that have not are intending to do so in the near future. Estimates of share of poorest
quintile in national consumption are readily available from such surveys.

24.     Prevalence of underweight children would need to be done in co-operation with Health Ministries.
There is some scope for this to be addressed during national household surveys and censuses, although this
would require additional interviewers (possibly from Health agencies) and may not capture a representative
sample of the target population.

    The full report is available at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/mi/mdg_report.pdf
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25.     Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption is potentially
available from household expenditure surveys: NSOs would need to develop and apply conversion factors in
consultation with national nutrition experts.

Goal 2. Achieve universal primary education

26.    Net enrolment ratio in primary education is readily available from national population censuses and
most national education departments.

27.     Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 is not the most directly applicable measure in
the Pacific, where most primary schools go to grade 6 - changing to this as a more appropriate indicator
would make it significantly easier to measure through education-related questions in national censuses. This
indicator is also potentially available from the administrative records of most national education systems in
the region.

28.     Literacy rate of 15-24 year olds is generally considered to be available from education-related
questions in national censuses, but it is not often measured directly. In many countries this reflects the rigour
with which compulsory education is monitored and enforced, such that a minimum level of education is
generally assumed.

Goal 3. Promote gender equality and empower women

29.      Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education is readily available from national
population censuses, although the tertiary measure would be inaccurate in many countries where there is no
national university and students go overseas for tertiary studies eg, to USP campuses in Fiji and Vanuatu as
well as to Australia, New Zealand and USA.

30.    Ratio of literate females to males of 15-24 year olds, and Share of women in wage employment in
the non-agricultural sector are both readily available from national population censuses, although the
determination of "literate" will generally be based on assumptions.

31.     Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament is a matter of public record. However it is
worth noting that the indicator as specified may be a somewhat narrower measure than was probably
intended in countries which have significant other bodies of national influence eg, the Great Council of
Chiefs in Fiji.
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Goal 4. Reduce child mortality

32.     Under-five mortality rate, Infant mortality rate, and Proportion of 1 year old children immunised
against measles are almost certainly derivable from administrative records in national health systems, and are
often supplemented by data from vehicles such as national Health and Demographic Surveys (HDSs) and
population censuses. Once NSOs are fully aware of these indicators the design of any HDSs will no doubt be
structured to target them specifically wherever they are not already available.

Goal 5. Improve maternal health

33.     Maternal mortality ratio is available from administrative records in national health systems.
Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel is available from administrative records in some
national health systems, but there is as yet no clear standard that would ensure intra-regional comparability.
There is scope for collecting information on this indicator through national censuses and HDSs, but the
respondents in many cases - outer rural in particular - might not be aware of the level of formal training of
the person assisting at the birth.

Goal 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

34.     HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women, Contraceptive prevalence rate, and Number
of children orphaned by HIV/AIDS are not available from NSSs, and there are no known plans that might
lead to their general compilation and availability. It is extremely unlikely that that they could be targeted
effectively by national censuses. There may be some scope for including related questions in national HDSs,
but NSOs would have to consider very carefully whether the sensitivity of these issues would have a
significant negative impact on the quality of responses to other questions. It appears that the best hope for
quantifying these indicators rests with national health systems, and their ability to adapt administrative
processes to include the necessary information.

35.     Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria and Proportion of population in malaria risk areas
using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures are among specific indicators already being
developed by the SPC Health Programme in co-operation with national and international agencies. The
Programme also includes a project specifically targeting tuberculosis and the associated DOTS (Directly
Observed Treatment Short Course) programmes, and is developing data on Prevalence and death rates
associated with tuberculosis and Proportion of TB cases detected and cured under DOTS. That project
presently covers only six countries, but is providing a framework for similar work throughout the region.
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Goal 7. Ensure environmental sustainability

36.     Proportion of land area covered by forest, Land area protected to maintain biological diversity, GDP
per unit of energy use (as proxy for energy efficiency) and Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) are
measures that fall within the responsibilities of the South Pacific Regional Environment Program (SPREP)
and the South Pacific Applied Geo-science Commission (SOPAC). At the national level these are indicators
which involve data from a range of agencies, and it is essential that all related aspects of data collection be
co-ordinated as fully as possible - this is discussed in more detail above.

37.     Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source, Proportion of people
with access to improved sanitation, and Proportion of people with access to secure tenure are all available in
approximate form from national census tabulations. However, the specific concepts underlying these MDG
indicators are not yet established as standards for population census questionnaires. This will be a point for
discussion by heads of NSOs during the MDG session at RMHS13 in September 2003.

Goal 8. Develop a global partnership for development

38.     Most MDG indicators for Market access and Debt sustainability are not available from NSSs in the
region, and appear unlikely to be derivable in the medium future. The one exception is Debt service as a
percentage of exports of goods and services which is readily derivable in almost all countries. However, this
ratio may well be made more relevant by expanding exports of goods and services to include other current
external receipts, most notably the personal remittances which represent a major and regular source of
foreign exchange for a number of Pacific Island economies.

39.     Unemployment rate of 15-24 year olds can in theory be measured directly by population censuses
and household surveys, but there is considerable debate within the region about the definition of the term
"unemployment". Most countries in the region do not have unemployment benefits so there is no formal
system of enrolments, and the general distinction between "employed" and "unemployed" is far less clear in
the Pacific Islands than it is in developed economies. The definition of the term "unemployment" will be
another key point for discussion by heads of NSOs at RMHS13 in September 2003.

40.     Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis is not
presently available from NSSs, and it is unlikely to be developed as part of any NSO activities. Household
surveys can and do provide related information on expenditures on health care items, but the specific
measure being targeted could only be developed in co-operation with national health professionals.

41.     Information on Telephone lines per 1000 people is generally available from population censuses as
well as from national telecom providers. Some countries have begun to include questions in surveys that will
provide information on Personal computers per 1000 people and it is highly likely that the frequency of such
questions will increase as household computer usage becomes increasingly significant. The impetus for
further improvement in technology-related statistics will be strengthened by the rapidly growing regional
network of information technology and communications professionals.
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Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

Goals and Targets from the Millennium Declaration       Indicators for monitoring progress

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Target 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the             1. Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day
proportion of people whose income is less than one
                                                        2. Poverty gap ratio [incidence x depth of poverty]
dollar a day
                                                        3. Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

Target 2: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the             4. Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of
proportion of people who suffer from hunger             age

                                                        5. Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary
                                                        energy consumption

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere,    6. Net enrolment ratio in primary education
boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full
                                                        7. Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5
course of primary schooling
                                                        8. Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and     9. Ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary
secondary education preferably by 2005 and to all       education
levels of education no later than 2015
                                                        10. Ratio of literate females to males of 15-24 year-olds

                                                        11.   Share   of   women    in   wage   employment        in   the
                                                        nonagricultural sector

                                                        12. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Target 5: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and        13. Under-five mortality rate
2015, the under-five mortality rate
                                                        14. Infant mortality rate

                                                        15. Proportion of 1 year-old children immunised against
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Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Target 6: Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and    16. Maternal mortality ratio
2015, the maternal mortality ratio
                                                        17. Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Target 7: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse      18. HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women
the spread of HIV/AIDS                                                                                             b
                                                        19. Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate
                                                        20. Number of children orphaned by HIV/AIDS

Target 8: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse      21. Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria
the incidence of malaria and other major diseases
                                                        22. Proportion of population in malaria risk areas using
                                                        effective malaria prevention and treatment measures

                                                        23. Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis

                                                        24. Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured
                                                        under directly observed treatment short course (DOTS)

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable       25. Proportion of land area covered by forest
development into country policies and programmes and
                                                        26. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to
reverse the loss of environmental resources
                                                        surface area

                                                        27. Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP (PPP)

                                                        28. Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) and consumption
                                                        of ozone-depleting CFCs (ODP tons)

                                                        29. Proportion of population using solid fuels

Target 10: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people     30. Proportion of population with sustainable access to an
without sustainable access to safe drinking water       improved water source, urban and rural

Target 11 By 2020, to have achieved a significant       31. Proportion of urban population with access to improved
improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum   sanitation
                                                        32. Proportion of households with access to secure tenure
                                                        (owned or rented)
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Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
                                                                   Some of the indicators listed below are monitored separately for
Target 12: Develop further an open, rule-based,
                                                                   the least developed countries (LDCs), Africa, landlocked countries
predictable,   non-discriminatory               trading     and
                                                                   and small island developing States.
financial system
Includes a commitment to good governance,
development, and poverty reduction – both                          Official development assistance
nationally and internationally                                     33. Net ODA, total and to LDCs, as percentage of OECD/DAC
                                                                   donors’ gross national income
Target 13: Address the special needs of the least
developed countries                                                34.    Proportion   of   total   bilateral,   sector-allocable   ODA of
                                                                   OECD/DAC donors to basic social services (basic education,
Includes: tariff and quota free access for least
                                                                   primary health care, nutrition, safe water and sanitation)
developed      countries'      exports;            enhanced
programme      of   debt    relief        for     HIPC      and    35. Proportion of bilateral ODA of OECD/DAC donors that is
cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more                  untied

generous ODA for countries committed to poverty                    36. ODA received in landlocked countries as proportion of their
reduction                                                          GNIs

                                                                   37. ODA received in small island developing States as proportion
Target 14: Address          the special            needs      of
                                                                   of their GNIs
landlocked countries and small island developing
(through the Programme of Action for the                           Market access
Sustainable    Development           of     Small         Island
                                                                   38. Proportion of total developed country imports (by value and
Developing States and the outcome of the twenty-                   excluding arms) from developing countries and LDCs, admitted
second special session of the General Assembly)                    free of duties

Target 15: Deal comprehensively with the debt                      39. Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural
problems of developing countries through national                  products and textiles and clothing from developing countries
and international measures in order to make debt                   40. Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as
sustainable in the long term                                       percentage of their GDP
                                                                   41. Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity
                                                                   Debt sustainability
                                                                   42. Total number of countries that have reached their HIPC
                                                                   decision points and number that have reached their HIPC
                                                                   completion points (cumulative)

                                                                   43. Debt relief committed under HIPC initiative, US$

                                                                   44. Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services
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Target 16: In co-operation with developing              45. Unemployment rate of 15-24 year-olds, each sex and total
countries, develop and implement strategies for
decent and productive work for youth

Target 17: In co-operation with pharmaceutical          46. Proportion of population with access to affordable essential
companies,       provide   access    to   affordable,   drugs on a sustainable basis
essential drugs in developing countries

Target 18: In co-operation with the private sector,     47. Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 population
make available the benefits of new technologies,
                                                        48. Personal computers in use per 100 population and Internet
especially information and communications
                                                        users per 100 population

The Millennium Development Goals and targets come from the Millennium Declaration signed by 189 countries, including
147 Heads of State, in September 2000 (www.un.org/documents/ga/res/55/a55r002.pdf - A/RES/55/2). The goals and
targets are inter-related and should be seen as a whole. They represent a partnership between the developed countries
and the developing countries determined, as the Declaration states, “to create an environment – at the national and
global levels alike – which is conducive to development and the elimination of poverty.”
    For monitoring country poverty trends, indicators based on national poverty lines should be used, where available.
     Amongst contraceptive methods, only condoms are effective in preventing HIV transmission. The contraceptive
prevalence rate is also useful in tracking progress in other health, gender and poverty goals. Because the condom use
rate is only measured amongst women in union, it will be supplemented by an indicator on condom use in high risk
situations. These indicators will be augmented with an indicator of knowledge and misconceptions regarding HIV/AIDS
by 15-24 year-olds (UNICEF – WHO).
    To be measured by the ratio of proportion of orphans to non-orphans aged 10-14 who are attending school.
    Prevention to be measured by the % of under 5s sleeping under insecticide treated bednets; treatment to be measured
by % of under 5s who are appropriately treated.
    OECD and WTO are collecting data that will be available from 2001 onwards.
    An improved measure of the target is under development by ILO for future years.
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                                                                                                    ANNEX 2


42.     The FEMM 2000 outcomes included a directive to the Forum Secretariat to work with other
        appropriate organisations in the region towards:
        (i)     "establishing a coherent reform strategy for statistical operations in the region based on a
                systematic assessment of country needs and priorities and taking the IMF's GDDS and UN's
                MNSDS as the starting point.
        (ii)    exploring the scope for establishing a regional capacity to co-ordinate and conduct and/or
                provide enhanced technical assistance for national censuses, and large scale social and
                economic surveys.
        (iii)   encouraging the use of twinning arrangements between national statistics offices in FICs to
                aid in the development of greater capacity.
        (iv)    improving quality and co-ordination of the variety of regional databases already in existence.

43.      While the regional capacity to service key information needs is still in need of development - a
situation which cannot realistically be resolved in the short term - there have been a number of significant
statistical developments during the last few years, many of them very closely aligned with the specific
directives from FEMM. It is beyond the scope of this paper to list all statistical activities since FEMM 2000,
but some key examples of statistical development are presented below under four broad headings covering
the FEMM directive.

Assessment of country needs and priorities

44.      The Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) Statistics and Demography Programmes ask every
regional NSO each year to list their training and technical assistance needs, and then plan their statistical
activities for the next year around those stated needs. In addition, Programme staff use in-country missions to
provide ad hoc assistance where required, including to staff from relevant agencies other than the NSOs.
This wider assistance will be of particular benefit where it can facilitate co-operation between agencies
compiling data needed for the MDG indicators. This on-going assessment and addressing of national needs is
reinforced by the triennial RMHS meetings of heads of statistics, where the activities of both Programmes
are reviewed, and priorities and directions are set by the countries for the next three year period.
SPC / STATS 13 /Information Paper 1
Page 16

45.     The Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC) has actively promoted the use of the
GDDS as a framework for "gap analysis" to assess national statistical needs, and their work in this area has
also involved the SPC Statistics Programme, the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA),
the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Statistics New Zealand (SNZ). Eight PIF countries have now
signed up to the GDDS, and PFTAC has begun planning a range of technical assistances in areas identified
by assessment against the GDDS framework. With the expansion of the GDDS in 2001 to include social and
demographic data (joining the "real", "financial", "fiscal" and "external" sectors) it is now a far more
complete statistical system than previously, and better suited to the measurement of MDG indicators.
Although the MDGs are not specifically identified in the GDDS they are implicit in the broad headings
covered under "socio-demographic": Population; Health; Education; and Poverty.

46.      The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has a number of statistical projects in the region, all based on
meeting needs stated by the countries involved. Some are specific to one country, others span a number of
countries eg, ADB TA-6009 targets the improvement of economic statistics in PNG, Fiji, Tonga, Cook
Islands, Vanuatu and Samoa.

47.     Importantly, the full range of agencies engaged in providing statistical assistance have been
communicating and co-ordinating their efforts much more closely, both formally and informally. This has
significantly strengthened the regional statistical network and is proving invaluable in ensuring the increased
effectiveness of assistance activities through integration and lack of duplication.

A regional capacity for national censuses, and large scale social and economic surveys.

48.     The SPC's Statistics and Demography Programmes have continued to provide specialised assistance
with the design, conduct, processing and analysis of population censuses and household surveys in a number
of FICs. During the 2000 round of censuses, SPC’s Demography Programme provided census assistance to
most countries, and collaborated with NSO staff in 14 PICTs in publishing national population profiles for
planners and policymakers. As part of their core functions both programmes provide on-going assistance and
specialist advice on census and survey matters to 21 NSOs in the Pacific region.

49.     Currently the two programmes are collaborating in an AusAID-funded project in Nauru: the
Demography Programme assisted with the conduct of a national census in 2002, it will follow up with
processing and analysis assistance in 2003, and this will then be followed by a household income and
expenditure survey (HIES) to be designed and carried out with assistance from the Statistics Programme. In
another recent example, the Statistics Programme provided expert assistance to Niue in the design, conduct
and analysis of a national HIES in 2002.
                                                                       SPC / STATS 13 /Information Paper 1
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50.     In association with FEMM 2000 PFTAC prepared and circulated a discussion paper on the need to
establish a regional capacity to assist countries with national censuses and surveys. There has been no
significant response from donors and countries to that paper - hopefully this can be interpreted as denoting
regional satisfaction with the services being provided, particularly by agencies such as SPC and the US
Bureau of the Census.

51.      In a move that will significantly enhance the regional capacity for analysis of census and survey data
the SPC Demography Programme is currently also hosting a major Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
project funded by the UK's Department for International Development (DFID). This project will significantly
improve the analytic tools available to NSOs and national planners, including through the linking of area-
based population census data to other national databases eg, education, health, agriculture. Significantly,
countries which have full GIS capability will be far better able to undertake detailed poverty and related
analysis, particularly in terms of identifying communities in particular need by cross-classifying a number of
variables including MDG indicators where they are available. The GIS project is targeting a number of
countries initially, and will be showcased to all NSOs and a wide range of agencies at RMHS13 in
September 2003.

Twinning arrangements between national statistics offices in FICs

52.     The need for better sharing of skilled human resources between NSOs in the region was discussed at
RMHS12 in September 2000, and has led to a number of developments: during 2002 the SPC Demography
Programme engaged staff from the NSOs of PNG and Fiji to provide specialist assistance with computer
processing to Samoa and Tuvalu respectively; the SPC Statistics Programme's website includes a register of
"Pacific Islander experts" and this will be carried forward into the PRISM project now under development
(discussed in more detail below); and the ADB project being led by the SPC Statistician to improve
economic statistics in six FICs includes specific funding for NSO staff to work in other countries to gain
relevant experience.

53.      There are also a number of opportunities for NSO staff to undertake training attachments outside
their home country: the SPC Statistics and Demography Programmes regularly host training attachments in
Nouméa; SNZ provide two training attachments for Pacific Islanders each year; and PFTAC provided
funding for two training attachments at both ABS in 2001 and 2003 and are committed to maintain assistance
in this area.
SPC / STATS 13 /Information Paper 1
Page 18

Improving quality and co-ordination of regional databases already in existence.

54.      The SPC Statistics Programme is hosting the Pacific Regional Information System (PRISM) project
funded by DFID. The PRISM project is assisting every NSO in the region to develop and/or improve its
national statistical website, all of them linked to a central Internet database at SPC and with links to a very
wide range of other agencies, both national and international. PRISM will provide for the first time a
coherent and easily accessible set of official statistical information covering all Pacific Island countries and
territories. The project is focusing initially on NSOs, but it also aims to bring in all other agencies with links
to national statistical systems, with particular emphasis on health, education and environment. The project is
on track to meet its target of having at least 15 national statistical websites fully operational before the end of

55.     As an early part of PRISM development an initial set of "core" data items has been defined in close
consultation with NSOs and other agencies. All MDGs were included in the list of items considered: those
that NSOs considered would be available now or in the near future were included in the list of items to be
used as a standard in the first round of website development, the others have been held back for the second
phase of the database development. In addition to the "core" items all NSOs will have complete control over
what other items they decide to publish on their website, including data from other agencies and links to
other websites.

56.      In the lead-up to the ICPD in Cairo 1994, SPC’s Demography Programme developed a regional
database on key population and development indicators. That database continues to be regularly updated, and
is freely accessible via the Programme's website or in hard copy (poster format, updated every three years).
All updates are done in collaboration with NSOs, and the database is widely used by UN agencies in their
own database products.

57.      The general level of information available throughout the region will also be significantly enhanced
by the rapidly developing provision of "metadata" which provides users with more information about the
information they are accessing eg. details of the underlying sources and methods, classifications, definitions,
key assumptions and limitations, frequency of release, and expected developments. The increased
availability of such information will greatly assist users in assessing the comparability and consistency of
data used for intra-regional comparison and analysis. The storage and dissemination of metadata is a very
strong component of the IMF's GDDS, and a wide range of metadata for countries who sign to the GDDS
will be available from the IMF's website. The development of the PRISM project also embodies a very
strong commitment to better informing users about all aspects of the data being published, and the national
statistical websites being developed throughout the region will all have very significant storage capacity for
whatever additional information NSOs decide to make available eg. fully detailed national classification
systems, work programs, major reports and publications, and links to other national websites.


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