NE NW Projections 2012 by liwenting

VIEWS: 24 PAGES: 28

									                             What’s Expected?
Employment Projections for NW, Wisconsin & NE, Minnesota.



 Beverly Gehrke & Matthew Schoeppner
                 Regional Labor Market Analysts


            State of Wisconsin
   Department of Workforce Development
                Department of
            Workforce Development

             Office     of

              Economic
               Advisors
                    Northwest WI Labor Force &
                   Population Projections to 2030
      250,000


      200,000                       188,414         191,386        193,409         193,964     193,024
                    184,489
                                                                                                         Growth: 4.6%

      150,000



      100,000

                                                                                                           Growth: -5.5%
                         50.9%          52.3%           51.0%
        50,000                                                         49.0%           47.1%
                                                                                                 45.9%

               0
                       2005            2010            2015            2020           2025       2030
                                                               Year
             Population                   Labor force
Source: WI Demographic Services and DWD special tabulation by Office of Economic Advisors
                    Northeast, MN Labor Force &
                   Population Projections to 2030
      400,000                                                                     370,600
                                                           356,500      364,200
                                                347800                                      Growth: 11.0%
                    329,800           338,500


      300,000




      200,000
                                                                                             Growth: 3.4%


      100,000           50.8%           50.8%     49.6%         48.2%     47.1%     46.7%



               0
                       2005             2010     2015           2020      2025      2030
                                                         Year
            Population                   Labor force
Source: MN State Demographic Center
           Percent Change in Northwest, WI
          Projected Population by Age Group
                                           (2005-2015)
                                                        Age Group

             "Future Workforce                             Declining Pool of   The "Baby Boom" & Older
                  Entrants"           The "Echo Boom"      "Skilled Workers"          Population

           5-9   10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74       75+
  60.0%

  50.0%

  40.0%

  30.0%

  20.0%

  10.0%

   0.0%

 -10.0%

 -20.0%

 -30.0%

 -40.0%


Source: WI State Demographic Center
          Percent Change in Northeast, MN
         Projected Population by Age Group
                                             (2005-2015)
                                                        Age Group

           "Future Workforce                               Declining Pool of   The "Baby Boom" & Older
                Entrants"             The "Echo Boom"      "Skilled Workers"          Population

         5-9   10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74         75+
60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

 0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%



Source: MN State Demographic Center
What do you Plan to do in Retirement?

         Retire! - Not Work                        Never Retire! 5.0%
          for Pay, 30.0%
                                                                        Work Full-Time in
                                                                            Similar
                                                                        Occupation, 5.0%




Work Part-Time in                                                Work Part-Time in
    Different                                                         Similar
  Occupation,                                                      Occupation,
     23.0%                                                            25.0%


          Work Full-Time in                             Start Own
             Different                               Business / Work
          Occupation, 2.0%                            for Self, 10.0%


  Source: AARP Working in Retirement Study, 2003
                            Northwest Wisconsin
                    Employment Projections: Annual Openings
                                        Management                                                    New jobs
                              Business and Financial Operations                                       Replacement jobs
                                 Computer and Mathematical
                                  Architecture and Engineering
                               Life, Physical, and Social Science
                                Community and Social Services
                                              Legal
Occupation Groups




                                 Education, Training, and Library
                    Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
                            Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
                                      Healthcare Support
                                        Protective Service
                            Food Preparation and Serving Related
                    Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance
                                   Personal Care and Service
                                         Sales and Related
                                Office and Administrative Support
                                 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
                                     Construction and Extraction
                             Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
                                            Production
                              Transportation and Material Moving

                                                                       0        100       200   300   400   500
                    Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections
                            Northeast, Minnesota
                    Employment Projections: Annual Openings
                                        Management                                                     New jobs
                              Business and Financial Operations                                        Replacement jobs
                                 Computer and Mathematical
                                  Architecture and Engineering
                               Life, Physical, and Social Science
                                Community and Social Services
                                              Legal
Occupation Groups




                                 Education, Training, and Library
                    Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
                           Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
                                     Healthcare Support
                                       Protective Service
                           Food Preparation and Serving Related
                    Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance
                                   Personal Care and Service
                                         Sales and Related
                                Office and Administrative Support
                                 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
                                     Construction and Extraction
                             Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
                                            Production
                              Transportation and Material Moving

                                                                     0   100   200   300   400   500    600   700
                         Source: MN DEED, Employment Projections
             Northwest Wisconsin
        Occupations with Most New Jobs!
   • Truck Drivers, heavy-long haul                          • Office Clerks, General
   • Nursing Aides                                           • Bartenders
   • Registered Nurses                                       • Maids/Housekeeping Cleaners
   • Cashiers                                                • Sales Reps., Whlsl. & Mfg.
   • Retail Salespersons                                     • General & Operations Mgrs.
   • Waiters/Waitresses                                      • Maintenance/Repair Wrkrs, General
   • Comb. Food Prep/Servers (incl.                          • Elementary School Teachers, not
     fast food)                                                special education
   • Carpenters                                              • Teacher Assistants
   • Personal & Home Care Attd.                              • Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery
   • Janitors & Cleaners                                     • 1st-line Supervisors/Mgrs. of Retail
                                                               Sales Workers

Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections, 2002-2012
              Northeast, Minnesota
         Occupations with Most New Jobs!
     • Nursing Aides                                 • Food Preparation & Service
     • Home Health Aides                               Workers (incl. fast food)
     • Personal & Home Care Aides                    • Waiters & Waitresses
     • Registered Nurses                             • Janitors & Cleaners
     • LPNs                                          • Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners
     • Medical Assistants                            • Office Clerks/General
     • Social & Human Service                        • Accountants
       Assistants                                    • General & Operations Mgrs
     • Cashiers                                      • Truck Drivers
     • Retail Salespersons                           • Carpenters
     • Customer Service Representatives              • Welders


Source: MN DEED, Employment Projections, 2002-2012
         Northwest Wis. Occupations with
          Most Replacement Openings!
    •   Cashiers                                            • Nursing Aides/Orderlies/Attendants
    •   Waiter/Waitresses                                   • Registered Nurses
    •   Retail Salespersons                                 • Carpenters
    •   Comb. Food Prep/Servers (incl.                      • Janitors & Cleaners
        fast food)
    •   Bartenders                                          • Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners
    •   Laborers-Freight/Stock/Material                     • Sales Reps., Whlsl. & Mfg.
        Movers, Hand                                        • Elementary School Teachers, not
    •   Truck Drivers, heavy/long haul                        special education
    •   Office Clerks, General                              • Secondary School Teachers, not
    •   Team Assemblers                                       special or vocational ed.
    •   Stock Clerks/Order Fillers                          • Food Preparation Workers
                                                            • Tellers

Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections, 2002-2012
          Northeast, MN Occupations with
           Most Replacement Openings!
     •   Nursing Aides                               • Food Preparation & Service
     •   Registered Nurses                             Workers (incl. fast food)
     •   LPNs                                        • Waiters & Waitresses
     •   Child Care Workers                          • Janitors & Cleaners
     •   Teachers…                                   • Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners
         (Elementary, Secondary,
         & Post-Secondary)                           • Office Clerks/General
     •   Stock Clerks                                • Accounting & Bookkeeping Clerks
     •   Cashiers                                    • General & Operations Mgrs
     •   Retail Salespersons                         • Truck Drivers
     •   Tellers                                     • Laborers and Freight Movers
     •   Protective Service Workers

Source: MN DEED, Employment Projections, 2002-2012
                      Truck Drivers, Heavy-Long Haul

                      Nursing Aides/Orderlies/Attds

                                  Registered Nurses

                                            Cashiers

                                 Retail Salespersons

                                Waiters/Waitresses
Detailed Occupation




                       Comb Food Prep/Srvrs, inc. FF

                                          Carpenters
                                                                                             New jobs
                         Personal & Home Care Aides
                                                                                             Replacement jobs
                                  Janitors & Cleaners

                               Office Clerks/General

                                          Bartenders

                          Maids/Housekpng Cleaners                                      Northwest Wis.
                                 Sls Reps. Whlsl-Mfg                                   Occupations with
                         General and Operations Mgrs                                  Most Projected Total
                        Maint/Repair Wrkrs/General                                     Annual Openings!
                      Elemen Schl Tchrs Ex Special Ed


                                                        0         25                  50     75         100
     Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections, 2002-2012
                                     Home Health Aides

                      Social & Human Service Assistants

                                      Registered Nurses

                                    Retail Salespersons

                      Food Preparation & Serving Workers

                                               Cashiers
Detailed Occupation




                      Customer Service Representatives
                                                                          New jobs
                                          Nursing Aides

                             Personal & Home Care Aides                   Replacement jobs
                                   Waiters & Waitresses

                         General & Operations Managers

                         Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners
                                                                        Northeast, MN
                                           Office Clerks
                                                                       Occupations with
                                     Janitors & Cleaners
                                                                      Most Projected Total
              Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer

                           Managers of Retail Sales Work
                                                                       Annual Openings!
                                      Child Care Workers


                                                           0   10 0      200            300
          Source: MN DEED, Employment Projections
                              Home Health Aides 50.0%

                              Personal Care Aides 45.0%


                               Social Serv. Assits 36.0%

                               Registered Nurses 29.2%                        Northwest Wis.
                              Preschool Teachers 28.0%
                                                                             Occupations with
   Detailed Occupation



                                     Electricians 27.6%
                                                                             Greatest 10-Year
                             Recept. & Info. Clrks 26.5%
                                                                             Projected Annual
                              Bus Drivers, School 25.8%
                                                                               Growth Rate!
                              Child Care Workers 25.0%


                          Counter & Rental Clerks 25.0%
                                                                           New Jobs (Annual)
                             Plumbers/Pipefitters 25.0%

                                                                           Replacement Jobs (Annual)
                                  Cosmetologists 23.8%

                                     Carpenters 22.8%

                             Truck Drivers, Heavy 21.1%


                                   Nursing Aides 20.7%

                         Fam./School Social Wrkrs 19.0%


                                 Food Prep Wrkrs 18.8%

                          Comb Food Prep/Serv Wrk/Incl
                                  Fast 18.6%


                                                           0   25     50            75            100
Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections
     Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems, 62.4%

                   Social and Human Service Assistants, 60.8%

                         Personal and Home Care Aides, 51.5%


     Detailed                       Home Health Aides, 51.1%


    Occupation                  Rehabilitation Counselors, 51%

                                     Medical Assistants, 50.7%

   Medical Records and Health Information Technicians, 42.6%
                                                                                New Jobs (Annual)

               Interviewers, Except Eligibility and Loan, 35.9%                 Replacement Jobs (Annual)
               Medical and Public Health Social Workers, 33.9%

                                     Physical Therapists, 33.7%                 Northeast, MN
          Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists, 33.3%               Occupations with
         Computer and Information Systems Managers, 32.7%                      Greatest 10-Year
         Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators, 31.6%              Projected Growth Rate!
                                                                            (Greater than 70 Total Hires between 2002 and 2012)
                    Medical and Health Services Managers, 30%

               Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers, 27.5%

                  Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services, 27%

                     Customer Service Representatives, 26.4%

                                             Pharmacists, 26%


                                                                   0   25          50         75         100         125
Source: MN DEED, Employment Projections
                    A look at 2012!
 Projected Distribution of Occupations in
          Northwest, Wisconsin
                         Transportation
                          and Material
                                        Business and
                            Moving
                                        Management        Other
                             9.3%
                                            6.4%       Professional
       Maintenance &                                       6.2%
        Production
           15.2%                                             Education
   Natural                                                     6.5%
Resources and
 Construction
    5.7%
                                                             Healthcare
                                                              Related
                                                               8.3%
      Office and
    Administrative                                     Other Service
       Support                                             9.2%
        13.6%      Sales Related
                       9.3%                   Food Service
                                                 10.2%
                       A look at 2012!
   Projected Distribution of Occupations in
            Northeast, Minnesota
                              Transportation
                               and Material
   Maintenance &                 Moving           Business and
    Production                    5.8%            Management          Other
       14.9%                                          8.7%         Professional
                                                                       6.6%


     Natural
                                                                         Education
  Resources and
                                                                           5.9%
   Construction
      6.1%
                                                                     Other Service
                                                                         1.5%

  Office and
Administrative                                                     Healthcare
   Support                                                          Related
    14.7%                                                            14.3%

                                                            Protective
                  Sales Related                              Service
                                               Food Service
                      10.6%                                   2.3%
                                                  8.6%
                     Northwest Wis. Median Wage
                        by Occupation Group
                                                           Regional      Regional                  Wage Range
                    Occupation Group                      Median Wage   Employment
                                                                                          (10th, 50th, 90th percentiles)
                                                                                     $0   $10   $20    $30    $40    $50   $60
    Management Occupations                                  $27.98          2,460
    Legal Occupations                                       $24.01            320
    Architecture and Engineering Occupations                $22.46            780
    Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations          $20.05            620
    Computer and Mathematical Occupations                   $20.00            400
    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations      $19.99          2,630
    Business and Financial Operations Occupations           $19.85          1,500
    Education, Training, and Library Occupations            $18.88          5,320
    Community and Social Services Occupations               $17.67            940
    Construction and Extraction Occupations                 $16.40          3,410
    Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations       $16.14          3,020
    Protective Service Occupations                          $15.33          1,580
    Production Occupations                                  $13.81         10,730
    Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations              $13.27            150
    Transportation and Material Moving Occupations          $12.84          6,930
                                                            $11.74
    Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations                530
    Office and Administrative Support Occupations           $11.66         10,340
    Healthcare Support Occupations                          $10.70          2,080
    Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations $9.67         2,400
    Personal Care and Service Occupations                     $8.85         2,150
    Sales and Related Occupations                             $8.85         7,270
    Food Preparation and Serving-Related Occupations          $7.73         7,480
    Total all occupations                                   $12.71        136,000


Source: WI DWD, OES, 1Q 2006
                     Northeast, MN Median Wage
                        by Occupation Group
                                                          Arrowhead                  Wage Range
                        Occupation Group                 Median Wage        (10th, 50th, 90th percentiles)
                                                                       $0   $10   $20   $30   $40   $50      $60

    Management Occupations                                 $32.60
    Legal Occupations                                      $25.97
    Computer and Mathematical Occupations                  $24.76
    Architecture and Engineering Occupations               $24.16
    Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations     $22.82
    Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations         $22.29
    Business and Financial Operations Occupations          $21.16
    Construction and Extraction Occupations                $21.04
    Education, Training, and Library Occupations           $20.99
    Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations      $19.31
    Protective Service Occupations                         $17.59
    Community and Social Services Occupations              $15.86
    Production Occupations                                 $15.64
    Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations             $15.48
    Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occ     $14.85
    Transportation and Material Moving Occupations         $13.17
    Office and Administrative Support Occupations          $12.78
    Healthcare Support Occupations                         $10.87
    Personal Care and Service Occupations                   $9.81
    Sales and Related Occupations                           $9.13
    Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occup.        $9.06
    Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations        $7.52
    Total, All Occupations                                 $14.28



Source: MN DEED, OES, 1Q 2006
NW WI - High-demand, High paying jobs (ranking)
(% change & openings > average for region & Median $ > region’s median $)

•      Chief executives ($144,910)                                        Bachelor’s or higher + work exp.
•      Lawyer ($86,240)                                                   First professional degree
•      Health specialties teacher ($83,800)                               Master’s degree
•      Pharmacist ($83,700)                                               First professional degree
•      Computer/info. system mgr ($83,630)                                Bachelor’s or higher + work exp.
•      Ed. administrator ($76,680)                                        Bachelor’s or higher + work exp.
•      Sales manager ($76,480)                                            Bachelor’s or higher + work exp.
•      General & operation mgr. ($75,900)                                 Bachelor’s or higher + work exp.
•      Financial manager ($74,180)                                        Bachelor’s degree
•      Computer system analyst ($66,940)                                  Bachelor’s degree


    Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections
NE MN - High-demand, High paying jobs (ranking)
(% change & openings > average for region & Median $ > region’s median $)


•    Chief executives ($108,579)                   Bachelor’s or Higher + Work Exp.
•    Pharmacist ($99,170)                          First Professional Degree
•    Computer/Info. System Mgr. ($78,213)          Bachelor’s or Higher + Work Exp.
•    Medical & Health Services Mgr. ($70,621)      Bachelor’s or Higher + Work Exp.
•    Computer Software Engineers ($67,547)         Bachelor’s Degree
•    General & Operation Mgr. ($66,347)            Bachelor’s or Higher + Work Exp.
•    Physical Therapists ($59,960)                 Master’s Degree
•    Computer Systems Analyst ($57,613)            Bachelor’s degree
•    Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg. ($56,762)        Over 12 Months Training
•    Clinical and School Psychologists ($54,684)   Doctoral Degree

    Source: MN DEED, Employment Projections Tool
NW WI - High-demand (ranking), High paying jobs
(% change & openings > average for region & Median $ > region’s median $)


•   Registered nurse ($48,300)                                            Assoc. or Bachelor’s degree
•   Truck driver, Hvy./tractor-trailer ($35,300)                          1-12 mos. Training
•   Sales rep, wholesale & mfg. ($46,310)                                 1-12 mos. Training
•   Sec. school teacher ($42,020)                                         Bachelor’s degree
•   Gen. & operations mgr. ($75,900)                                      Bachelor’s plus work exp.
•   Carpenter ($35,070)                                                   Over 12 mos. Training
•   Accountant & auditor ($49,550)                                        Bachelor’s degree
•   Computer systems specialist ($66,940)                                 Bachelor’s degree
•   Electrician ($45,060)                                                 Over 12 mos. Training
•   Plumber, Pipefitter, steamfitter ($45,710)                            Over 12 mos. training



    Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections
NE MN - High-demand (ranking), High paying jobs
    (% change & openings > average for region & Median $ > region’s median $)

•     Registered nurse           ($53,904)                       Associates or Bachelor’s Degree
•     General & Operations Mgrs.                    ($66,347)    Bachelor’s or Higher + Work Exp.
•     Sales Reps, Wholesale & Mfg.                   ($56,762)   Over 12 Months Training
•     Accountants & Auditors              ($47,453)              Bachelor’s degree
•     Welders, Cutters, Solders              ($39,506)           Over 12 Months Training
•     Police and Sheriffs Officers              ($44,866)        Over 12 Months Training
•     Family & School Social Workers ($52,345)                   Bachelor’s Degree
•     Correctional Officers and Jailers ($39,233)                Over 12 Months Training
•     Insurance Sales Agents ($54,274)                           Bachelor’s Degree
•     Medical & Health Services Mgrs ($70,621)                   Bachelor’s or Higher + Work Exp.



     Source: MN DEED, Employment Projections Tool
                                               State of Wisconsin
                                      Department of Workforce Development


                                         Beverly Gehrke
  Matthew Schoeppner                    Labor Market Analyst
                                         Northwest, Wisconsin
     Labor Market Analyst
                                      Office of Economic Advisors
      Northeast, Minnesota
                                         Phone: (715) 634-5289
Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit
                                                 Email:
      Phone: (218) 723-4775         Beverly.Gehrke@dwd.state.wi.us
             Email:
 matthew.schoeppner@state.mn.us
                                      DWD OEA Web Site
                                     www.dwd.state.wi.us/oea
  DEED LMI Web Site
                                                  Department of
 www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi                     Workforce Development

                                               Office     of

                                                Economic
                                                 Advisors

								
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