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					   FUTURES STUDIES
  Causal Layered Analysis
            Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine
            Coast University,
           www.metafuture.org
Six Pillars of Foresight

 • Mapping the future

 • Anticipating the future

 • Timing the future

 • Deepening the future

 • Creating alternatives

 • Transforming the future
DEEPENING THE FUTURE
  Causal layered analysis
                       The “Litany” official public description of issue
        Problem


      Causes              Social Science Analysis: - Systemic Short-
                          term historical facts uncovered. Solution values
                           with structures
   Social, Economic,
        Cultural
                                    Discourse Analysis: World-
                                    view solution often in
  Worldviews
                                    consciousness transformation


Metaphors and Myths                   Myth/Metaphor Analysis:
                                      Solution can rarely be rationally
                                      designed
•   Litany:
      - visible
      - disconnected news events

•   Systemic:
      - social, technological, economic, environmental
    and political causes

•   Discourses:
    - stakeholders
    - ideologies
    - worldviews

•   Myths-metaphors:
     - stories
     - legends
     - myths of trauma and transcendence
                Causal Layered Analysis




                                                             Superficial
                                                             Public
                  Newspaper headlines, superficial, common
Litany
                  public perceptions


Social causes      STEEP analysis




                                                             Deep Meaning
                                                              Unconscious
Worldview         Cultural/social/religious perspective or
                  worldview


   Myth           Emotional, images or deep meanings
                Causal Layered Analysis
Level        Issue / Problem             Solution              Who is                Source
                                                            responsible to
                                                                fix it

Litany      Problem seems too        Short term            Governments / I       Television/
(Visible)   difficult to solve       approaches            cant do anything      Newspapers
                                                           about it

Systemic    Problem because of       Integrated            Partnerships          Policy Journals,
            short term historical    approaches –          between sectors of    editorials
(Causes)
            factors or it is a       systemic solutions    society –
            process or system                              Government plus
            issue                                          industries

Worldview   Constituted by frame     Transform, rethink    Writers,              Peripheral
            of analysis, deep        self and others,      philosophers, those   journals,
            structures of belief &   change paradigm       outside the
            assumption                                     dominant language



Myth /      Constituted core         Alternative stories   Collective            Work of artists,
            myths / stories                                unconscious often     visionaries,
Metaphor
                                                           guided by visions
                                    CLA
 “real”
                      Litany
          R
          E                    Social system
          A                    & structure
          L
          I                              Worldview
          T
          Y                                          Myth &
“imagined”                                           Metaphor


              Short
                                TIME                 Long
              term                                   term
CLA - Stakeholders




                             L
                             O
              Stakeholders   N
                             G

                             T
                             E
                             R
                             M
CLA - Ideologies




                           L
                           O
              Ideologies   N
                           G

                           T
                           E
                           R
                           M
CLA - Worldviews




                          L
                          O
             Worldviews   N
                          G

                          T
                          E
                          R
                          M
CLA - Epistemes




                           L
                           O
            Conventional   N
                           G
             Epistemes
                           T
                           E
                           R
                           M
METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE
    CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX




      Litany

Social causes

  Worldview

      Myth

                Scenario 1   Scenario 2   Scenario 3   Scenario 4

				
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posted:3/4/2010
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