The Mexican Cattle and Beef Industry by kmw34260

VIEWS: 408 PAGES: 9

									   The Mexican Cattle and Beef                                                                   Background
            Industry                                                  •   Climate and Geography
                                                                      •   Population and Economic Growth
                                                                      •   Urban versus Rural Issues
                                                                      •   Domestic and International Politics
                                                                      •   Cultural Differences
                                                                      •   International Trade and Market Forces
          Derrell S. Peel
Professor and Livestock Marketing
            Specialist                                                                  “There are Many Mexicos”
    Oklahoma State University




                                                                          Forces of Change in the Mexican
                                                                              Cattle and Beef Industry
                                                                      •   Consumer Demand
                                                                      •   Food Retailing
                                                                      •   International Trade
                                                                      •   Animal Health Issues
                                                                      •   Food versus Feed Production
                                                                      •   Regional Integration/Specialization
                                                                      •   Unusual Market Factors
                                                          VERACRUZ




       Previous Work: Graduate Students                               Selected Publications

• Cunningham, M.E. “Estimated Impacts Of Mexican Regional Trade       •   “Beef Cattle Marketing and Opportunities for Value Added Marketing in Mexico.” 2006
  Restrictions Associated With Bovine Health Campaigns.” MS thesis,   •   “Economic Impacts of Restricted Animal Movements Due to Enhanced Animal
                                                                          Mexican Regional Bovine Health Criteria.” 2006
  Oklahoma State University, 2006                                     •   “The Mexican Cattle and Beef Industry: Demand, Production and Trade.” 2005
                                                                      •   “Animal Health Implications of Evolving Mexican Beef and Cattle Markets.” 2003
• Beardsley, T.J. “Analysis of Potential Factors Affecting Beef       •   “Implications of Mexican Beef Demand Change on Cattle Beef Production in Mexico
                                                                          and U.S.-Mexican Cattle and Beef Trade.” 2003
  Consumption in Five States of Mexico.” MS thesis, Oklahoma State    •   “A Summary of the Impact of Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) on the Mexican Beef
  University, 2003.                                                       Cattle Industry and U.S./Mexican Cattle and Beef Trade.” 2003
                                                                      •   “Implications of Mexican Beef Demand Change on Cattle and Beef Production in
                                                                          Mexico and U.S.-Mexican Cattle and Beef Trade.” 2003
• Hayes, L.D. “An Evaluation of the Mexican Beef Cattle Industry.”    •   “The Role of U.S. Beef in the Mexican Market.” 2002
  MS thesis, Oklahoma State University, 1999.                         •    “Major Factors Affecting the Mexican Beef and Cattle Industry: What to Expect in
                                                                          the Coming Years.” 2002
                                                                      •   “Future Mexican Cattle and Beef Production and U.S./Mexico Cattle and Beef Trade
• Cockerham, L.L. “The Impact of the North American Free Trade            Patterns.” 2000
  Agreement on the U.S. Feeder Cattle Market.” MS thesis, Oklahoma    •   “Estimated Impacts of Improved Management Technology on Mexican Cattle and
  State University, 1995                                                  Beef Production.” 2000
                                                                      •   “U.S. Price Impacts of Feeder Cattle Imported From Mexico.” 1995




                                                                                                                                                                1
 GANAMEX MODEL: Ganadería Mexicana

• Spatial Linear Programming
   – 9 Production Regions
   – 10 Feedlot Regions
   – 7 Consumption Regions
• Production and Slaughter Systems
   –   4 Cow types
   –   2 Stocker systems
   –   4 Finishing systems
   –   2 Slaughter systems
• Beef Demand
   – 4 Meat types
   – Quantity and Quality by Region
• Trade
   – Cattle and Beef Imports and Exports
• Forage Resources
                                                     VERACRUZ




                                                     DURANGO




                                           DURANGO   CHIHUAHUA




                                                                 2
                        TLAXCALA
CHIHUAHUA




            OAXACA      PUEBLA




                        VERACRAZ
               OAXACA




                                   3
      EXPORTS
                                     Cattle Production Systems
                                     • Traditional
                                       – Weaning > Extensive Stocker > Grass Finish
                                       – Slaughter Age: 36 - 48 months
                                     • Semi-Intensive
                                       – Weaning > Extensive Stocker> Feedlot
                DISTRITO               – Slaughter Age: 26 - 36 months
                FEDERAL
                                     • Intensive
                                       – Weaning > Intensive Stocker > Feedlot
MEXICAN
                                       – Slaughter Age: 18 - 26 month
CATTLE AND
BEEF MARKET
REGIONS




                                                                                 BAJA
                                                                                 CALIFORNIA
                           DURANGO




                                                                         DURANGO




                                                                                              4
                                                             VERACRUZ
JALISCO




          VERACRUZ   VERACRUZ




                                Mexican Beef Demand

                     • Quantity
                                Kgs/Year
                        – Total Kgs/Year
                     • Consumption Profile
                                                Engorda, Tradicional,
                        – Carne Norte, Carne de Engorda, Tradicional,
                          Carne de Vaca
                     • Regional Consumption Index
                       – Different Tastes and Preferences
                     • Population




                                                                        5
                Mexican Beef Types
• “Carne Norte” (Northern Style)
   – Quasi-American style, more fat and some marbling
• “Carne de Engorda” (Mexican Fed Beef)
   – Finishing in feedlots or on pasture with supplementation
   – Little fat (but white) and no marbling
• “Carne Tradicional” (Traditional Beef)
   – Grass finished
   – Little fat (yellow) and no marbling
• “Carne de Vaca” or “Carne de Desecho”
   – Cull cow and bull beef



                                                                JALISCO




                                                                CHIHUAHUA




                                                                            6
                                                                                                                                            CHIHUAHUA




                                                           Supply of Slaughter Cattle and Carcasses in Mexico City,
                                                                    Head/Month, April 2000 – August 2006

                                                                  60000

                                                                  55000
                                                                  50000
                                                                  45000
                                                                  40000
                                                           Head




                                                                  35000
                                                                  30000
                                                                  25000

                                                                  20000
                                                                  15000
                                                                  10000
                                                                                   01




                                                                                               02




                                                                                                             03




                                                                                                                           04




                                                                                                                                      05




                                                                                                                                                      06
                                                                                 20




                                                                                             20




                                                                                                           20




                                                                                                                         20




                                                                                                                                    20




                                                                                                                                                    20
                                             MEXICO CITY




                Slaughter Cattle Price, Mexico City
                  Monthly, Jan 2000 – Sep 2006                                           CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO
                                                                                                             Annual
           22
                                                                  Thou. Head
                                                                  1800
           20                                                     1600
                                                                  1400
Pesos/KG




           18                                                     1200
                                                                  1000
           16                                                      800
                                                                   600
           14                                                      400
                                                                   200
                                                                          1980    1983    1986      1989   1992   1995      1998   2001    2004
           12
                                                                                                                                                   I-N-17
                   01




                          02




                                 03




                                        04




                                               05




                                                      06




                                                                                                                                                  12/13/06
                 20




                        20




                               20




                                      20




                                             20




                                                    20




                                                                                                                                                             7
                                                                                                                                                                           Mexican Imports of U.S. Meat
                                   U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MEXICO
                                                   Carcass Weight, Monthly
                                                                                                                                                             70000
 Mil. Pounds
                                                                                                                                                             65000
 80                                                                                                                                                          60000
                                                                                                                                                             55000
                                                                                                                                                             50000
 60                                                                                                                                                          45000
                                                                                                                                                             40000




                                                                                                                                                        KG
                                                                                                                                                             35000
 40                                                                                                                                                          30000
                                                                                                                                                             25000
                                                                                                                                                             20000
 20                                                                                                                                                          15000
                                                                                                                                                             10000
                                                                                                                                                              5000
   0                                                                                                                                                             0
       1998          1999          2000          2001          2002          2003          2004          2005          2006




                                                                                                                                                                 00




                                                                                                                                                                             01




                                                                                                                                                                                     02




                                                                                                                                                                                                  03




                                                                                                                                                                                                                04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      06
                                                                                                                                                               20




                                                                                                                                                                           20




                                                                                                                                                                                   20




                                                                                                                                                                                                20




                                                                                                                                                                                                              20




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20
                                                                                                                                      I-N-35
 Livestock Marketing Information Center                                                                                              01/11/07
                                                                                                                                                                                          Beef         Pork          Broilers




                                                                                                                                                       Supply of Slaughter Cattle and Carcasses to
                                          CATTLE EXPORTS TO MEXICO                                                                                                Mexico City by Source
                                                                         Annual
                                                                                                                                                         100%
   Thou. Head                                                                                                                                             90%
   300
                                                                                                                                                          80%
                                                                                                                                                          70%
                                                                                                                                                          60%
   200
                                                                                                                                                          50%
                                                                                                                                                          40%
                                                                                                                                                          30%
   100
                                                                                                                                                          20%
                                                                                                                                                          10%
                                                                                                                                                           0%
        0
              1980          1983          1986          1989          1992          1995          1998          2001          2004                                                2002                                     2006
                                                                                                                                      I-N-14             VER         QTO    JAL   MEX     AGS          PUE     OAX       CHIS     ZAC      GTO
                                                                                                                                     12/13/06
                                                                                                                                                         HGO         SLP    TAM   TAB     YUC          SIN     NL        COAH     DUR      OTROS




                              Cattle Exports by Source                                                                                                   Unusual Mexican Market Factors

100                                                                                                                                                    • Use of Beta-agonists
 90                                                                                                                                             Jal
                                                                                                                                                Zac
                                                                                                                                                             – Clenbuterol, Zilmax, OptaFlexx
 80
 70                                                                                                                                             Cam    • Impact of “Narcotraficos”
 60                                                                                                                                             Sin
                                                                                                                                                Ver
 50
                                                                                                                                                Tam
 40
                                                                                                                                                NL
 30
                                                                                                                                                Coah
 20
                                                                                                                                                Dgo
 10                                                                                                                                             Son
  0                                                                                                                                             Chih
                     2001/2002                                 2004/2005                                   2005/2006




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   8
                                              Percent of Slaughter Cattle by Type in Mexico City
                                                   Monthly, April 2000 – September 2006                                                   Summary
                                                                                                                 Changes In Beef Demand
                                            100
                                                                                                                  • Growth In Fed Beef Consumption
                                            90                                                                    • Less Grass-fed And Cow Beef Consumption
                                                                                                                  • Differentiation By Quality And Cut
Percent of Total Slaughter Plant Arrivals




                                            80
                                                                                                                 Competition With Other Meat Industries
                                            70
                                                                                                                 Mexico Has A Comparative Advantage In Cow-calf Production
                                            60                                                                    • More Intensive Production Systems
                                            50                                                                    • Productivity Growth?
                                            40                                                                    • Growth In Cow-calf And Stocker Production
                                                                                                                  • Limited Growth In Feedlot Production
                                            30
                                                                                                                 International Trade
                                            20                                                                    • Cattle Exports And Meat Imports Are Positively Related
                                            10                                                                    • South American Imports?
                                              0
                                                                                                                 Regional/National Market Integration
                                                                                                                  • Internal Animal And Product Flows
                                                                                                                  • Equilibrium Between U.S. And Mexican Markets
                                                     01




                                                             02




                                                                          03




                                                                                    04




                                                                                            05




                                                                                                      06
                                                  20




                                                          20




                                                                       20




                                                                                 20




                                                                                         20




                                                                                                   20
                                                                                                                 Changes In Marketing System
                                                                  Grass-fed    Feedlot   Cows    Source: SNIIM    • More Points Of Price Discovery
                                                                                                                  • Feeder Cattle Price Reporting




                                                                                                  TLAXCALA




                                                                                                                                                                             9

								
To top