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					                                                                                                                                                                                                 Regression Analysis
                                                                                                              Last Update:     3/23/2009
  Regression Analysis is a tool to help in determining the timing of changes to the duration of the assets (or liabilities) of a
 financial Institution. Although this analysis does not necessarily PREDICT interest rates, it does help to understand the rate
                                   cycle, i.e. when rates are "relatively high", or "relatively low".
                          Red Lines = 3 Std (99.5%); Blue Lines = 2 Std (96.4%); Green Lines = 1 Std (66.5%).

                                                                10.00                                                                      2Y Trsy Regression
                                            +2 StD    5.25%
Current Rates are between ONE and TWO                            8.00
 standard deviations BELOW the mean,        +1 StD    3.80%      6.00
  suggesting that portfolio durations be
          gradually shortened.                                   4.00
                                              Mean    2.36%
                                                                 2.00

                                            -1 StD    0.91%      0.00




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                                            Current   0.87%     -2.00
                                            -2 StD    -0.53%
                                                                -4.00



                                                               9.00                                                                        5Y Trsy Regression
                                            +2 StD    4.85%
                                                               8.00
Current Rates are between ONE and TWO
                                                               7.00
 standard deviations BELOW the mean,        +1 StD    3.89%
  suggesting that portfolio durations be                       6.00

          gradually shortened.                                 5.00
                                              Mean    2.92%
                                                               4.00
                                                               3.00
                                            -1 StD    1.96%
                                                               2.00
                                            Current   1.64%    1.00
                                            -2 StD    0.99%
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                                                                8.00                                                                              10Y Trsy Regression
                                            +2 StD    4.77%
                                                                7.00
Current Rates are between ONE and TWO
                                                                6.00
 standard deviations BELOW the mean,        +1 StD    4.17%
  suggesting that portfolio durations be                        5.00
          gradually shortened.
                                              Mean    3.56%     4.00

                                                                3.00

                                            -1 StD    2.96%     2.00
                                            Current   2.61%
                                                                1.00
                                            -2 StD    2.36%
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                                                               8.00
                                            +2 StD    4.82%                                                                              30Y Trsy Regression
                                                               7.00
Current Rates are between ONE and TWO
 standard deviations BELOW the mean,        +1 StD    4.47%    6.00
  suggesting that portfolio durations be
                                                               5.00
          gradually shortened.
                                              Mean    4.11%
                                                               4.00

                                            -1 StD    3.76%    3.00

                                            Current   3.64%
                                                               2.00
                                            -2 StD    3.40%
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      Prepared by:
      Country Club Bank, n.a.                                                                                                                                                                                      Confidential