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					 The WBCSD Sustainable
Mobility Project – A Status
                     Report
          Presentation by George C. Eads
            Charles River Associates, Inc.
                 Project Lead Consultant
                           August 8, 2002
    Project Sponsors




2
    Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable
    Mobility Project

         Part 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility
          and its sustainability at the end of the
          twentieth century

         Part 2 – Development of vision(s) of how
          mobility can be made sustainable in the future
          and of strategies for the attainment of this
          (these) vision(s)




3
    Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable
    Mobility Project

         Phase 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility
          and its sustainability at the end of the
          twentieth century – Mobility 2001, released
          October 2001

         Phase 2 – Development of vision of how
          mobility can be made sustainable in the future
          and of strategies for the attainment of this
          vision



4
    Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable
    Mobility Project

         Phase 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility
          and its sustainability at the end of the
          twentieth century – Mobility 2001, released
          October 2001

         Phase 2 – Development of vision of how
          mobility can be made sustainable in the future
          and of strategies for the attainment of this
          vision – now underway; Sustainable Mobility
          2030 to be completed by December 2003


5
    Outline of today’s presentation


           Summary of Mobility 2001
             Scope of report
             Major influences on the sustainability of
               mobility
             Sustainability “scorecards” for the
               developed and developing worlds
             “Grand challenges” to achieving sustainable
               mobility
           Description of work underway in Part 2
             Additional details on fuels-related work




6
    Scope of Mobility 2001


         Addresses multiple dimensions of
          sustainability

         Focuses on urbanized areas of both the
          developed and developing worlds

         Includes all transportation modes

         Includes freight mobility as well as personal
          mobility



7
    Study team

           MIT academic departments and research units
            represented:
                Center for Transportation Studies
                Energy Laboratory
                Materials Systems Laboratory
                Department of Urban Studies and Design
                Sloan Automotive Laboratory
                Department of Mechanical Engineering
                Laboratory for Energy and the Environment
                Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
                Center for Technology Policy and Industrial Development
                Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

           CRA representation:
                Senior research staff of CRA’s Transportation Practice




8
    Major influences on the sustainability of
    worldwide mobility

         Evolving patterns of human settlement and
          economic activity
         Dominant role played by the personal road
          vehicle in providing personal mobility in the
          developed world
         Certain regularities in personal travel
          patterns
         Enormous growth in freight transportation
         Transport’s almost total dependence on
          petroleum-based fuels
         CO2 and “conventional” emissions from
          transport
         Rapid urbanization and motorization of
          urbanized areas in the developing world
9
     I.        Evolving patterns of human
               settlement and economic activity

          Two phenomena are shaping this evolution
          1.   Urbanization – “the most powerful
               anthropogenic force on earth”
          2. “Suburbanization” -- reduction in population
               density of urbanized areas
               Neither could be occurring to the extent they are without the
                   mobility improvements of the post WWII era
               Both have important implications for the sustainability of mobility




10
             Population living in urban areas
              – 1950, 1975, 2000, and 2030(p)


              1950                       1975                         2000                                2030
                                                                                                          2030
      Total pop. 2.5 billion     Total pop. 4.1 billion                2000
                                                              Total pop. 6.1 billion              Total pop. 8.1 billion
          30% urban                       1975
                                     38% urban                    47% urban                        0.20
               1950                                                                                    60% urban
                                                                  0.28
                                      0.31                                                                1.01
     0.30   0.37               0.81                                       0.90
                                                           1.94
                                            0.73                                                             1.01
              0.3 0.45                   0.81 0.73                               0.9       3.88
               0.45                                                                                              0.2
                                                                  1.94              0.28
     1.41            0.37                           0.31
                                                                                                  3.88     3.02
                                      2.22                         2.93
            1.41
                                             2.22                                                                 3.02
                                                                                 2.93
            Urban developing

            Urban developed


            Rural developing

            Rural developed

     Source: UN (1999).




11
     Urban population densities are falling
      Data for illustrative developed world urban areas
                                          pop/sq km (1960) pop/sq km (1990)           % chg. (1960-1990)
      Tokyo                                    8,565              7,097                     -17%
      New York                                 2,878              2,086                     -28%
      Paris                                    6,860              4,614                     -33%
      London                                   6,539              4,232                     -35%
      Detroit                                  1,970              1,275                     -35%
      San Francisco-Oakland                    1,640              1,602                      -2%
      Washington                               2,046              1,373                     -33%
      Melbourne                                2,028              1,491                     -26%
      Hamburg                                  6,827              3,982                     -42%
      Vienna                                   9,141              6,830                     -25%
      Brisbane                                 2,095               978                      -53%
      Copenhagen                               4,952              3,467                     -30%
      Amsterdam                                9,973              5,591                     -44%
      Zurich                                   5,998              4,708                     -22%
      Frankfurt                                8,722              4,661                     -47%

      Data are for ―urbanized area‖ as defined by local and/or national authorities

      Source: Demographia (2001).




12
     II.                     Auto* ownership has been rising
                             throughout most of the developed
                             world
     700
                                                                                  *Vehicle ownership per 1000 population
     600                                                                                                                                                                                                       1960

     500                                                                                                                                                                                                       1980

                                                                                                                                                                                                               1995
     400

     300

     200

     100

       0
                             Italy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Turkey
                                     Germany




                                                                                                                        Norway
                                                        Australia




                                                                                  Austria




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Japan

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Greece
                                                                                                                                                                                             Denmark
             United States




                                                                                                                                                                       Netherlands

                                                                                                                                                                                     Spain
                                                                                                                                            United Kingdom

                                                                                                                                                             Finland
                                               Canada




                                                                                            France




                                                                                                               Sweden




                                                                                                                                 Portugal
                                                                    Switzerland




                                                                                                     Belgium




     Note: Data not available for Iceland, Ireland, Luxemburg, and New Zealand.
     Source: Updated database, based on Schafer (1998).


                         *Auto = all light-duty, personal use vehicles
13
     So has the utilization of autos*

      Annual auto passenger-km/person
      20,000
      18,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                           1960
      16,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                           1980
      14,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                           1995
      12,000
      10,000
       8,000
       6,000
       4,000
       2,000
            0
                                  Italy




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Turkey
                                          Germany




                                                                                                                    Norway
                                                    Australia




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Japan
                                                                              Austria




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Greece
                                                                                                                                                                                         Denmark
                  United States




                                                                                                                                                                   Netherlands

                                                                                                                                                                                 Spain
                                                                                                                                        United Kingdom

                                                                                                                                                         Finland
                                                                                        France



                                                                                                           Sweden



                                                                                                                             Portugal
                                                                Switzerland




                                                                                                 Belgium




      Note: Data not available for Canada, Iceland, Ireland, Luxemburg, and New Zealand.
      Source: Updated database, based on Schafer (1998).



       *Autos = all personal use light duty vehicles
14
     The auto now dominates personal travel
     in most developed-world urbanized areas
      Passenger-km/person/year
      18,000

      16,000                                            Rail+Tram
                                                        Bus
      14,000
                                                        Car
      12,000

      10,000

       8,000

       6,000

       4,000

       2,000

            0
               Amsterdam Copenhagen         Frankfurt    London     New York San Francisco      Vienna     Zurich
                      Brisbane        Detroit     Hamburg     Melbourne     Paris       Tokyo     Washington, DC

      Source: Kenworthy and Laube (1999).




15
     Public transport share has been declining

                      Public transport share of motorized passenger kilometers
     90%

     80%
                                                                                                                        1960

     70%
                                                                                                                        1990
     60%

     50%

     40%

     30%

     20%

     10%

     0%
       Amsterdam           Copenhagen           Frankfurt    London     New York              San              Vienna      Zurich
                                                                                           Francisco
                    Brisbane           Detroit         Hamburg    Melbourne        Paris               Tokyo     Washington, DC

           Source: Kenworthy and Laube (1999)
16
     The auto also dominates long-distance
         travel in the developed world

           Share of intercity passenger-kilometers; Britain (1990) and the Netherlands
           (1990)

                              Britai                                       Netherlan
                              n                                            ds
                                                    Car
                                                   54%       Air
           Air                                               29
           36                                                %
           %
                                                                                          Car
                                                                                         58%


                                                              Bus
                 Rai                                          and
                 l                                            Rail
                 7%     Bu                                    13%
                        s
                        3%
           Source: Updated database based on Schafer (2000); calculations by
           study team.




17
              III.            Regularities in personal travel across
                              different countries and times
                                            Kilometers traveled            Hours per day                     Travel cost, %
                                            per person, per day
                                            Kilometers traveled            spent traveling
                                                                           Hours per day                 of disposable income
                                                                                                             Travel cost, %
  United States (1995)                      per person, per day            spent traveling               of disposable income
  United States (1995)
   Netherlands
   Netherlands (1995)
        Norway (1992)
        Norway (1986)
       Australia (1992)
       Australia(1977)
  United States (1986)
   Netherlands (1977)
  United States (1985)
   Netherlands (1985)
        Norway (1985)
        Norway (1985)
    Switzerland (1994)
                 (1994)
   Switzerland (1984)
  Great Britain (1995)
   Switzerland (1984)
  W. Germany (1995)
  Great Britain (1976)
                 (1989)
  W. Germany (1976)
  W. Germany (1989)
          Japan (1992)
          Japan (1992)
  Great Britain (1976)
  Great Britain (1976)
     Singapore (1991)
     Singapore (1991)
 Ghana Villages (1988)
 Ghana Villages (1988)
  Tanzania Vill. (1986)
  Tanzania Vill. (1986)
                                 0        20         40     60    80 0   0.5      1          1.5   2 0   5       10       15    20
                                 0        20         40
     Source: Database updated based on Schafer (2000).
                                                            60    80 0   0.5      1          1.5   2 0   5       10       15    20
     Source: Database updated based on Schafer (2000).




18
     Commuting data for US – 1990 and 2000




                                 Source: US Census




19
                             IV.    Growth in freight transportation – all
                                    modes except ocean freight
                                    Worldwide tonne-kilometers, 1970-1994; All modes except ocean freight


                             16.0
                                                              Pipeline

                                                              Coastal Shipping       Total = 13.4
                             14.0

                                                              Inland Water
                                                                                         2.1
                             12.0
                                                              Rail
     Trillions of tonne-km




                                                                                         1.4
                             10.0                             Road
                                                                                         1.2
                                                Total = 7.5
                              8.0
                                       0.9
                              6.0                1.1                                     5.4
                                       0.7
                              4.0
                                                 3.5
                              2.0
                                                                                         3.3
                                                 1.3
                              0.0
                                                1970                                    1994




20
     Growth in ocean freight
                                        Worldwide tonne-kilometers, 1975-1995; Ocean freight
                               35.0
                                        General Cargo (containerized)
                                                                                               New
                                        General Cargo (non-containerized)                      Mode
                               30.0     Dry Bulk Cargo                                  2.0
                                        Crude Petroleum and Petroleum Products
                                                                                        4.6
                               25.0
       Trillions of tonne-km




                                                         4.5

                                                                                                      Note: Red numbers
                               20.0                                                     9.4           show total freight
                                                         5.0                                          movements except
                                                                                                      for ocean freight
                               15.0
                                                                                 13.4

                               10.0                      15.7

                                      7.5                                               15.0

                                5.0



                                0.0
                                                      1975                              1995




21
     Road freight has been growing everywhere
      Tonnage figures understate value of freight hauled by road
      Billions of freight tonne-km/yr
      1400

      1200

                                                                                      1970       Early 1990s
      1000

       800

       600

       400

       200

          0
                  Western            Russia       Un ited States   Can ada   Mexico     Ch ina         Jap an
                  Europe

                              250–51.
      Source: BTS (1997), pp. 250–51.
      Note: Early 1990s—varies by country (1991, 1993, or 1994).




22
     Rail freight traffic growing in a few regions
      Tonnage figures overstate value of freight hauled by rail
      Billions of freight tonne-km/yr
      2500



      2000
                                                                                      1970       Early 1990s


      1500



      1000



       500



          0
                  Western            Russia       Un ited States   Can ada   Mexico     Ch ina         Jap an
                  Europe

                              250–51.
      Source: BTS (1997), pp. 250–51.
      Note: Early 1990s—varies by country (1991, 1993, or 1994).



23
     V.       Transportation’s almost total
              dependence on petroleum-based
              fuels
             96% of fuel used in transportation is petroleum-based
              (gasoline, diesel, residual fuel oil, jet fuel)

             Transport uses just over half of all petroleum

             Presently, two-thirds of transport fuel is used in
              industrialized countries, but industrializing country use
              is climbing fast; by 2020, projected to be almost equal




24
      VI. Emissions from transportation – CO2

      Share of worldwide C02 emissions from the combustion of fuel, by sector -- 1998

                                                            Commercial and other
                                                                             6%

                                      Residential
                                      8%



     Of which:                                                               Production of Energy
                                Transport                                                    41%
     Road (passenger
                                26%
       and freight) = 16.9%
     Rail, domestic air, and
       inland waterway = 6.1%
     International air = 1.4%
     International water = 1.7%

                                            Manufacturing and
                                            Construction
                                            19%

                               Source: IEA 2000a.




25
          Emissions of “conventional” pollutants

     Transport and road vehicles as a share of total emissions of pollutant (%)

                          US (1999)                                     EU 15 (2000)
     Pollutant All Transport Road Vehicles All Mobile Sources                       Road Vehicles
     CO            79%                  56%                     62%                        52%
     NOx           53%                  35%                     39%                        29%
     VOC           44%                  30%                     26%                        19%




                         Source: US Data – Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 21 – 2001
                                EU 15 Data – ACEA, “Commentary on the TERM 2001 Report”




26
     VII. The rapid urbanization and
          motorization of the developing*
          world
         The twin forces of urbanization and motorization are
         threatening to overwhelm whatever improvements in
         mobility that citizens in a number of developing
         countries have begun to enjoy in recent decades


       * includes “emerging” economies of Eastern Europe




27
     As incomes have risen, vehicle ownership rates in some
     developing world countries have begun to approach Western
     European and Japanese rates of 30-40 years ago
                                 Vehicle ownership per 1000 population
     350

     300
                                                                                                                     1960
                                                                                                                     1980
     250
                                                                                                                     1995

     200

     150

     100

      50

        0




                                                                                                                                   Malaysia
              Czechoslovakia




                                         Poland


                                                  FSU




                                                                    Brazil
                               Hungary




                                                                             Mexico




                                                                                                     China


                                                                                                             India
                                                        Argentina




                                                                                                                     South Korea
                                                                                      South Africa




                                                                                                                                              Taiwan


                                                                                                                                                       Thailand
     Source: Ward’s/Pemberton, World Vehicle Forecasts and Strategies: The Next 20 Years, 1996.

28
     Lower income groups in developing world countries are heavily
     dependant on public transport

                                   Data for Santiago
           Percentage of all trips
            80

                                       Walking             Auto          Public transport

            60




            40




            20




             0
            <$117                     $208–$316                    $494–$750                $1,160–$2,865
                       $117–$208                     $316–$494                    $750–$1,160               >$2,865

                                              Monthly income (1991 US$)
                                                                     included.
                                                                           e
           Note: Santiago does not add to 100%; not all modal shares include d.




29
     Traffic fatalities and serious injuries are an
     especially serious problem
              Traffic fatalities in selected regions
                                                   Traffic       Fatalities/       Fatalities/
                                     Year         Fatalities   100,000 People   10,000 Vehicles
              Brazil                 1995          27886            18.3             11.0
              Bombay                 1986               NA           NA              11.6
              Bogota                 1996              1073         16.8             18.9
              Mexico City            1993              2179         12.8              6.1
              Santiago               1994               394          7.2              6.3
              Bangalore              1995               678         16.1             10.4
              Delhi                  1993              1783         21.3             8.55
              Durban                 1996               637         29.7             16.0
              Johannesburg          1991/92             524         33.3              NA
              Harare                 1998               391         23.0              9.8
              Memo: G-7              1996                        0.6-1.6          1.5-2.9
              Sources: Hamed et al. (1998); Vasconcellos (1999); Vasconcellos (1996);
              COMETRAVI
              (1999), vol. 1; Zegras and Litman (1997); Sachdeva (1998), p. 508; Chakravarty and
              Sachdeva (1998), pp. 60–61; Durban Metro (2001); Mbara (2000), pp. 10–11;
              Guruprasad (2000), p. 478; Granne et al. (2000), p. 906.
              Notes: For Mexico City, Delhi, and Santiago the fatalities per vehicle includes all
              vehicles; for other cities not entirely clear in source. For Delhi, autos/thousand
              includes 2-wheelers and
              3-wheelers. For Bangalore autos/thousand includes all vehicles.




30
     Accidents victims aren’t just vehicle
     occupants


                 -Mode share and road accidents in Delhi, 1994


                                      Mode Share        Fatalities   Ratio (fatalities/
                     Mode                (%)              (%)         mode share)
          Car/taxi                            5            2               0.6
          Bus                                42           10               0.2
          Motorized 2-wheelers               12           27               2.3
          Bicycle                             5           14               2.8
          Pedestrian                         32           42               1.3
          Source: Mohan and Tiwari (1999).




31
     Motor vehicle-related air pollution an
        especially serious problem in many
        urban areas contribution of total air pollutants in selected developing
            Table 4-8. Motor vehicle                                         -
                   country cities

                              City       Year       CO       HC        Nox      SO2      SPM
                    Beijing               1989      39       75        46        NA       NA
                                          2000      84       NA        73        NA       NA
                    Bombay                1992      NA       NA        52        5         24
                    Budapest              1987      81       75        57        12       NA
                    Cochin, India         1993      70       95        77        NA       NA
                    Delhi                 1987      90       85        59        13        37
                    Lagos, Nigeria        1988      91       20        62        27        69
                    Mexico City           1990      97       53        75        22       35
                                          1996      99       33        77        21       26*
                    Santiago              1993      95       69        85        14       11
                                          1997      92       46†       71        15       86‡
                    São Paulo             1990      94       89        92        64        39
                    Sources: WRI (1996); West et al. (2000); CONAMA (1998); Fu and Yuan (2001)
                                                                                            .
                    * PM10.
                    † Does not include evaporative emissions from refueling.
                    ‡ PM10, includes fugitive road dust.
                    NA: Data not available


32
     What are the implications?
     Mobility 2001’s sustainability
     “scorecards”




33
     Developed world
                                                           Level   Direction
        Measures to be increased
        Access to means of personal mobility                          +
        Equity in access                                              –
        Appropriate mobility infrastructure                           –
        Inexpensive freight transportation                            +
        Measures to be reduced
        Congestion                                                    –
        “Conventional” emissions                                      +
        Greenhouse gas emissions                                      –
        Transportation noise                                          +
        Other environmental impacts                                   –
        Disruption of communities                                     –
        Transportation-related accidents                              +
        Transportations' demand for nonrenewable e nergy              +
        Transportation-related solid waste                            +




34
     Developing world
                                                            Level   Direction
        Measures to be increased

        Access to means of mobility                                    +
        Equity of access                                               ?
        Appropriate mobility infrastructure                            –
        Inexpensive freight transportation                             +
        Measures to be reduced

        Congestion                                                     –
        “Conventional” emissions                                       –
        Greenhouse gas emissions                                       –
        Transportation noise                                           –
        Other environmental impacts                                    –
        Disruption of communities                                      –
        Transportation-related accidents                               –
        Transportations’ demand for non -renewable energy              +
        Transportation-related solid waste                             ?



35
     The “grand challenges” identified by
     Mobility 2001




36
      Group 1

     • Adapting the personal use motor vehicle to the future
        accessibility needs/requirements of the developed and
        developing worlds

     • Drastically reducing carbon emissions from the
        transportation sector

     • Providing mobility for those not having access to
        personal motor vehicles in both the developed and
        developing worlds




37
     Group 2


     • Resolving the competition for access to infrastructure
        between personal and freight transportation

     • Dealing with growing problem of congestion in inter-
        city personal and goods transportation




38
     Group 3

     • “Reinventing” the process of planning, developing,
         financing, and managing mobility infrastructure

     • Improving institutional capability to identify, build
         consensus about how to solve, and implement
         approaches that promote sustainable mobility

     And, while doing all of this:

     • Ensuring that our transportation systems continue to
         play their essential role in economic development and,
         through the mobility they provide, serve essential
         human need and enhance the quality of life




39
     From Mobility 2001 to Mobility 2030


          Mobility 2001 provides us with a “situation
           analysis”

          How do we now develop a “vision of
           sustainable mobility” and “pathways” for
           reaching it?




40
     Developing Mobility 2030


          Work has been divided into ten separate tasks,
           or “work streams”

          Purpose of each work stream – to provide a
           major piece of the information and analysis




41
     Work Stream #1 -- Indicators


         “We will agree upon a set of sustainability indicators
          that will enable the project to develop an operational
          definition of sustainable mobility.”

      Action team being chaired by Norsk Hydro; recommendations
        presented to Working Group in mid-July meeting




42
     Why indicators?


       1. To permit individual action teams to know how the
          information they are producing will be used;

       2. To permit the project as a whole to assure that it is
          focusing on the most relevant issues;

       3. To permit those involved in the later work streams to
          measure the impact of potential actions; and,

       4. To assure that our “vision” is grounded in reality and
          addresses the major challenges to achieving
          sustainable mobility.




43
     Work stream #2 – transport vehicle
     design and technology

       “We will assess the potential impact on sustainability
         of mobility of developments in transport vehicle
         technology and design”

       Action Team being chaired by VW; preliminary report to be
           presented to Working Group in September




44
     Range of transport vehicles
          Passenger vehicles
               1-2 passenger (including mopeds, etc.)
               3-6 passenger (“conventional” cars)
               6-15 passenger (small vans, etc.)
               buses (city, suburban, intercity)
          Goods-hauling vehicles
               Light, local use
               Medium, local use
               Heavy, local use
               Medium, intercity use
               Heavy, intercity use
          Multi-purpose vehicles
               Purpose-built vans
               Car-derived vans
               Vans derived from pickups or similar vehicles

       Information to cover both developed and developing worlds



45
     Range of performance attributes

        Powertrain types, their fuel requirements, and their
         performance characteristics
        Materials used in vehicle construction
        Safety performance
               Occupant protection
               Crash avoidance
               Interaction with pedestrians, etc.
          Emissions performance
               Conventional
               Greenhouse gas
          Recyclability
          Potential for use of on-board electronics



46
     Work stream #3 – transport fuels

       “We will identify the potential impact on sustainability of
        fuels used in transportation
       Objectives:
             Develop a shared understanding of fuel pathways which can
              contribute to sustainability goals by 2030
             Identify enablers and blockers for each pathway
             Ensure that regional differences are taken into account, ensure
              adequate focus on developing world issues.”

      Action team being chaired by Shell and Toyota




47
     Work stream #4 – infrastructure

          “We will assess the infrastructure requirements resulting
           from the developments in transport technology and design
           and by the impact of the changes in fuels used by transport
           analyzed in Work Streams 2 and 3. We also will assess the
           potential impact on sustainable mobility of addressing – and
           of failing to address – these and other infrastructure
           requirements.”

       Action team being chaired by GM




48
     Work stream #5 – demand for personal
     mobility

          “We will assess the impact on the demand for personal
           mobility of (a) the developments identified in transport
           vehicle design and technology, fuels used in transport,
           and associated transport infrastructure requirements,
           and (b) expected developments in population, urban
           form, growth in per capita income, changes in income
           distribution, etc.”

       Action team being chaired by Ford and Honda




49
     Work stream #6 – goods and services
     mobility
          “We will assess the impact on the demand for goods
           and services mobility of (a) the developments we have
           identified in transport vehicle design and technology,
           fuels, and infrastructure, and (b) expected
           developments in population, urban form, growth in per
           capita income, changes in the composition and
           structure of industry, changes in logistics requirements,
           etc.”

       Action team being chaired by DaimlerChrysler




50
     Work stream #7 – policy instruments
     and institutional issues
          “We will identify the range of policy measures that
           appear to be available to influence the demand for
           personal mobility and the demand for goods and
           services mobility, indicate what is known about their
           effectiveness in various situations, identify institutional
           barriers to their use as well as the institutional barriers
           to the implementation of other actions showing promise
           for improving the sustainability of mobility, and suggest
           how these institutional barriers can be overcome and the
           consequences for achieving sustainable mobility if they
           are not.”

       Action team leadership not yet assigned




51
     Work stream #8/#9 – mobility in the
     urban and long-distance context
         “We will assess how personal mobility and goods and
          services mobility may evolve over the next 30 years in
          the urbanized areas of the developed and developing
          worlds, assess the impact of this evolution on the
          sustainability of mobility, and identify actions that
          could render mobility more sustainable. We will make
          the same assessment for long-distance personal and
          goods and services mobility.”

      Action team co-chaired by Nissan and VW




52
     Work stream #10 – scenario design,
     “vision” development, coordination
          We will assess the cumulative impact of anticipated
           changes in urbanized area and long-distance personal
           and goods mobility on the sustainability of mobility and
           assess the impact of various possible actions on the
           sustainability of mobility

       Action team being chaired by Shell and Ford




53
     Coverage of fuel-related issues


          At least three workstreams logically have some
           role in addressing fuels-related issues
             WS2 – Vehicle technology
                 Vehicle fuel use and on-vehicle fuel storage
             WS3 – Fuels

                 Fuel production and distribution
             WS4 – Infrastructure
                 Local siting issues (NIMBY)


       Some “boundary” issues still under discussion




54
     WS3 --Fuels and primary sources

           Final Fuels      Primary Sources

           •   Diesel       •   Crude oil
           •   Gasoline     •   Natural gas
           •   Methanol     •   Crops
           •   Ethanol      •   Geothermal
           •   Hydrogen     •   Wind
           •   LPG          •   Hydro/wave
           •   Methane      •   Solar
           •   Bioethanol
           •   Biodiesel




55
     Issues being addressed by WS3

          Fuels for transportation in 2030 – sources and
           availability
          Production technique prospects – infrastructure, costs,
           environmental impact
          Customer acceptance issues
          Sustainability of the fuel
          Route to “end game” and implications
          “Quick win” options in different regions
          Variances between urban and long distance/rural travel
           for the optimal fuel options
          “showstoppers” for various options in the different
           regions
          Categorization of niche and mainstream options
          Actions to bring most promising sustainable fuels to
           reality in different regions
          Regional variations for the above issues
          Potential fuels for non-road transport and implications
           for road transport fuels
56
     Contractor for WS3* presently conducting
     interviews with wide range of stakeholders

          Renewable and non-renewable fuel producers including
           industrial gases
          Vehicle/power train manufacturers
          NGOs including transport assocations, consumer groups,
           fuel associations (i.e., OPEC), World Bank, etc.
          Regulatory bodies

       * Frost & Sullivan




57
     Emerging themes from interviews


          Significant reliance on oil based fuels at least
           through 2030
          Political pressure for change
          Widespread support for “Well-to-Wheel”
           analysis
          Unanimous support for hydrogen in long term




58
     Some suspicion of unanimity re.
     hydrogen
          WS10 undertaking formal scenario analysis
             GBN is the contractor

          Scenario analysis designed to assure that we
           are examining an appropriate range of future
           political and economic conditions
             Bears on “robustness” of likelihood of hydrogen




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