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					    International Conference on Modeling Forest Production
                    Vienna, April 19-23, 2004


Analysis of Adaptive Forest Management
     Practices under Climate Change
 Petra Lasch1, Franz-W. Badeck1, C. Fürstenau1, Dietmar Jäger2,
         Manfred Lexer2, Marcus Lindner3, Felicitas Suckow1
    1Potsdam    Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
 2University   of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences
                            (BOKU), Vienna
        3European    Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland


                   Email: lasch@pik-potsdam.de
   Introduction: Research Questions

Effects of a variety of management programs (STP)
on management objectives under climate change
Evaluation of STPs by different user groups
(stakeholder) under climate change
Trade-off between maximization of carbon
sequestration and maximization of timber
production/ income
C - sequestration potential of adaptive forest
management under climate change
              Introduction: Work Scheme

                  Current Climate    Climate Change Scenario

Management Treatments

                             Forest Dynamics Model 4C

                                                Wood Product
                                                   Model
Stakeholder Preferences


                              Multiple Criteria Analysis
         Material and Methods: Model 4C

4C - FORESt Ecosystems in a changing    physiologically
     Environment                         based
                                        for simulation of
                                         managed and non-
                                         managed stands
                                        simulates C-, N-
                                         and water balance
                                        sensitive to
                                         environmental
                                         conditions
                                         (climate/weather,
                                         CO2, N)
Material and Methods: 4C – Management Model

                                    Stand age < threshold 1
                              Yes                                 No

            Dominant height < threshold 2                       Stand age < rotation age
           Yes                   No                                 Yes             No
                               Thinning                       Shelterwood
      Tending                   regimes                                           Clear-cut
                                                              management


     Directional   From below From above Selective
                                                                Natural
       felling                                                                     Planting
                                                              regeneration

      Variety of thinning methods, thinning intensity, rotation length
      Different harvesting methods with planting/ natural regeneration
      grading module: classification of timber yield and standing volume into
       timber grades
    Material and Methods: Multiple Criteria
               Analysis (BOKU)
Evaluation of alternative adaptive forest management
strategies with regard to multiple management objectives
Method
•    Application of multiple attribute utility theory (MAUT)
•    Additive utitlity model
Material and Methods: Objectives and Criteria

                       Overall utility (stand level)



   Timber                            Ground water             Carbon
                   Biodiversity
 production                            recharge            sequestration


        NPV             Dead wood            Percolation             C seq.
                                                                in forest, soil,
     Mean timber                                                 dead wood,
      increment                                                   products,
                                                                     landfill
     St. Volume
     Material and Methods: Utility function
Objective                   Priority             Criterion       Priority

                Forest     Priv. forest   NGO
                manag.        owner
Timber            0.61        0.67        0.25        NPV         0.43
production                                            MAI         0.43
                                                  St. volume      0.14
Carbon sequ.      0.05        0.17        0.25    Total carbon      1

Biodiversity      0.12         0.11       0.25    Dead wood         1

Groundwater       0.12        0.04        0.25    Percolation       1
recharge

                                                       4
Utot = p1 * UTP + p2 * UCS + p3 * UBD + p4 * UGWR ;
                                                       pi  1
                                                      i 1
     Material and Methods: Multiple Criteria
                Analysis (BOKU)
Method
•   Application of multiple attribute utility theory (MAUT)
•   Parameterisation of utility functions by Saaty‘s
    Eigenvalue method applied in the Analytical Hierachical
    process (AHP)
•   User defined preference functions (UMAI, UNPV, USV, UCS, UBD, UGWR)
Carbon sequestration                   Biodiversity                  Mean volume incr.
       1                                  1                             1
     0.8                                0.8                           0.8
     0.6                                0.6                           0.6
     0.4                                0.4                           0.4
     0.2                                0.2                           0.2
       0                                  0                             0
           -65    135   335    535            2    22     42    62       1.80     2.80       3.80
                 C sequestr. [tC/ha]              deadwood [tC/ha]        mean volume inc.I [tC/ha]
       Material and Methods: Stand Treatment
                   Programs (STP)
Site            Age of        Rotation    Thinning      Thinning/
                stands        length      intensity     Harvesting
Chorin/         17, 48, 100            heavy (0.6)
Scots pine                  80,120,160 mod. (0.8) thinning from
Grillenburg/    31, 68, 100            slight (1.0) below & clear
                                                    cut
Norway spruce

Simulation Experiments:
 3 stand initialisations x
9 STPs + conservation strategy x
 3 climate scenarios
        90 simulation runs per site, 100 years simulation time
     Material and Methods: Stand Treatment
                 Programs (STP)


Application of data from long-term management trials
  Evaluation of STP depends on initial stand age
  Averaging of three age classes is not adequate
  Results are mainly presented for one of three stand initializations
  Consideration of normal forest is necessary for
    an evaluation of STP independently on initialization age
           Material and Methods: Climate

Current climate: 100 years from 1961-1990 CRU
Greenhouse emission scenario: IS92a
ECH: ECHAM4 simulation 1990 –2090 (MPI, Hamburg)
HAD: HadCM2 simulation 1990 –2090 (Hadley Centre)

 Site                 Mean annual              Mean annual
                    temperature [°C]      precipitation sum [mm]
                  CC     ECH      HAD       CC      ECH      HAD
 Chorin           8.5    11.3     10.6     519       519     546

 Grillenburg      7.4    10.5      9.8     824       756     829

 temperature increase: 2.1 – 3.1 K, precipitation change: -9 % - + 5 %
Results: Carbon Sequestration & Climate Change

 CSall: Net carbon flow in the forest, wood product pool, landfill over
 100 years, pole stand
                         Pine, pole stand                          CC                            Spruce, pole stand                            CC
                                                                   ECH                                                                         ECH
                                                                   HAD           700                                                           HAD
         700
         600                                                                     600
         500                                                                     500




                                                                         tC/ha
 tC/ha




         400                                                                     400
         300                                                                     300
         200                                                                     200
         100                                                                     100
           0                                                                       0
                                                                  NM




                                                                                                                                          NM
               80
                    80
                         80
                              120
                                    120
                                          120
                                                160
                                                      160
                                                            160




                                                                                       80
                                                                                            80
                                                                                                 80
                                                                                                      120
                                                                                                            120
                                                                                                                  120
                                                                                                                        160
                                                                                                                              160
                                                                                                                                    160
                                    STP                                                                     STP



   Climate change: increase in net carbon flow for both climate scenarios
   Maximum CSall: STP 10 (no management)
          Results: Stand Level Utility (Spruce)
Pole stand, current climate
Utilities for 3 stakeholders    Partial utilities for CS, TP, BD, GR
              Spruce                          Spruce

    0.8                               1
    0.7
                                    0.8
    0.6
    0.5                              0.6
    0.4
    0.3                              0.4
    0.2                              0.2
    0.1
      0                                0




                                             80 0_h
                                             80 m
              80 h
                _m
                  _




                                         12 0_ s
                                            0 h
                                                _
          12 _s
               80




                                           12 _

                                        12 _m
                                               8
        12 _h




                                                            U UG
       12 m
             80




                                       16 0_s
      16 s
             0




                                     16 0_h
           0_




                                                         U B W
           0_

    16 _h




                        NG




                                    16 _m
    16 m




                                                       UC TP D R
                         FM
         s
         0




                                          s
       0_


     NM
      0_



                          FO




                                       0_
                                      NM
                           O




                                        0
                                                         Sa
                                                           l



 STP 7 (160_h): max. stand utility FM & FO
 STP 10 (no manag.): high value of UBD (dead wood) + high value
                      UCS  high stand level utility (NGO)
         Results: Stand Level Utility (Pine)
Pole stand, current climate
 Utilities for 3 stakeholders   Partial utilities for CS, TP, BD, GR
              Pine                             Pine

   0.8                               1
                                    0.8
   0.6
                                    0.6
   0.4
                                    0.4
   0.2                              0.2

    0                                 0




                                           80 0_h
                                        12 0_ m
          80 _h




                                       12 0_ s
          80 m




                                           8 _

                                             h
       12 _s




                                                             UG




                                       12 0_m
                                            8
           80



     12 0_h
            _




                                                       UTUBD W
     12 _m




                                    16 0_ s
    16 0_s




                                       0 h
                                      16 0_
   16 0_h




                                    16 _m
                                                      UC P
   16 _m




                       NG
        0




                                     NM s
                                                                R
        s



                        FM




                                      0_
    NM

                         FO
     0_




                                                        Sa
     0




                          O




                                                           l


Max. Utility
forest owner & forest manag.: STP 9; NGO: STP 10
Results: Stand Level Utility & Climate Change
Forest owner, pole stand
             Pine                          Spruce
  0.8                               0.8
  0.7                               0.7
  0.6                               0.6
  0.5                               0.5
  0.4                               0.4
  0.3                               0.3
  0.2                               0.2
  0.1                               0.1
    0                                 0




                                         80 0_h
         80 _h




                                         80 m
         80 m




                                       12 _s
                                        0 h
      12 _s




                                           _
          80



    12 0_h




                                     12 _m
           _




                                     12 0_
                                          8




                                    16 0_s
    12 _m




                                     0 h
   16 0_s




                                                    FO _E
                                   16 _m
  16 0_h




                                   16 0_

                                        s



                                                     FO
                     FO _E
  16 _m




                                       M

                                                     FO
       0




                                     0_
                      FO
       s
      M

                       FO




                                                      _H CH
    0_




                                     N
                        _H CH
    0

    N




                                                        AD
                          AD




        Max. Utility                 Max. Utility
CC: STP 9 ECH/HAD: STP 8        CC/ECH/HAD: STP 7 (160_h)
                        Results: Timber Production vs. Carbon
                           Sequestration vs. Income (Pine)

                                          CC                        CS Pine, pole
                                                                    NPVPine, pole        CC
                                                                                         CC
                          TP Pine, pole
                                          ECH                                            ECH
                                                                                         ECH
                                          HAD                                            HAD
                                                                                         HAD
               1                                               1
                                                               1
             0.8                                              0.8
                                                              0.8




                                                 preference
preference




                                                 preference
             0.6                                              0.6
                                                              0.6
             0.4                                              0.4
                                                              0.4
             0.2                                              0.2
                                                              0.2
               0                                               0
                                                               0




                                                                   _m
                         _m




                                                              12 m




                                                              16 m
                                                              12 ss
                          m




                     16 m
                    12 s




                                                               80 h
               _h




                                                                  NM
                        NM




                                                                      s




                                                                      s
                    16 s




                           s




                                                                     h
                    12 h




                    16 _h




                                                                   _m




                                                                   _m
                                                              12 _h




                                                              16 _h
                                                              16 s




                                                                     s
                                                                  _m




                                                                  NM
                                                                   _h



                                                                    _
                          _




                                                                  0_




                                                                  0_
                        0_




                        0_




                                                                    _
                       0_




                                                                   _
                                                                  0_


                                                                  0_
                                                                  0_


                                                                  0_
                      0_




                      0_




                                                                 0_




                                                                 0_
                                                                 80
                      80




                                                                80
              80




                       0




                                                                60
                                                                80
                                                                80
                   80




                                                                80




                                                               12




                                                               16
                     12




                               STP                                       STP
                                                                         STP


Max. TP                                         Max. CS                             Max. NPV
CC: STP 9 (160/1.)                              CC & ECH & HAD:                     CC & ECH & HAD:
ECH: STP 8 (160/0.8)                            STP 10/NM                           STP 7 (160/0.6)
HAD: STP 8 (160/0.8)
               Results: Timber Production vs. Carbon
                 Sequestration vs. Income (Spruce)

                                    TP Spruce, pole                                          CC                                        CS Spruce, pole
                                                                                                                                       NPVSpruce, pole                                          CC
                                                                                                                                                                                                CC
                                                                                             ECH                                                                                                ECH
                                                                                                                                                                                                ECH
              1                                                                              HAD                 1                                                                              HAD
                                                                                                                                                                                                HAD
             0.8                                                                                                0.8
preference




                                                                                                   preference
             0.6                                                                                                0.6
             0.4                                                                                                0.4
             0.2                                                                                                0.2
              0                                                                                                  0
                                                120_m




                                                                        160_m




                                                                                                                                                   120_m




                                                                                                                                                                           160_m
                          80_m




                                                                                        NM




                                                                                                                             80_m




                                                                                                                                                                                           NM
                                        120_h




                                                                160_h




                                                                                                                                           120_h




                                                                                                                                                                   160_h
                                                        120_s




                                                                                160_s




                                                                                                                                                           120_s




                                                                                                                                                                                   160_s
                   80_h




                                                                                                                      80_h
                                 80_s




                                                                                                                                    80_s
                                                   STP                                                                                                STP



 Max. TP                                                                                           Max. CS         Max. NPV
 CC & ECH & HAD:                                                                                   CC & ECH & HAD: CC & ECH & HAD:
 STP 7 (160/0.6)                                                                                   STP 10 /NM      STP 4 (120/0.6)
    Marginal Costs of Carbon Sequestration
Flow summation concept:
CSall – net carbon flow (forest, wood products, landfill)
        over 100 years
NPV – net present value (interest rate 4%)

                   250       STP 10
                                                             STPBL
                   200
  CSall [t C/ha]




                              CS
                   150                                        STPNPV
                   100
                    50                 NPV                                       NPV
                                                                           MC 
                     0                                                             CS
                         0          200       400      600           800
                                          NPV [€/ha]
Marginal Costs of Carbon Sequestration (Pine)

Max. carbon sequestration: STP 10 (NM)
Base line STP: STP 5 (120/0.8)
Marginal costs [€ / t C]               NPV (STP10 )  NPV (STP 5)
                                                   MC 
                                                          CSall (STP10 )  CSall (STP 5)

What is the potential loss in income if STP 10 is chosen ?
                    Pine, actual MC                                    additional CSall under act. MC

                                                                       250
          70




                                                      tC/ha over 100
          60                                                           200
          50




                                                          years
                                                                       150
   €/tC




          40
          30                                                           100
          20                                                            50                             mature
          10                              mature                                                     pole
                                        pole                              0
           0                                                                                       juvenile
                                      juvenile                                CC
               CC     ECH                                                          ECH HAD
                             HAD
Marginal Costs of Carbon Sequestration (Pine)

Base line (STP5)                                                      STP with max. NPV  Base line (STP 5) 
max. Csall (STP 10)                                                    max. Csall (STP 10) STP with max. NPV
                                       Pine, actual MC                                                                                                                           Pine, real op. MC
                                                                                                                  Pine, MC

                                                                                                                                                                      70
                         70                                                                                                                                           60
                                                                                                      70
                         60                                                                                                                                           50
                                                                                                      60
                                                                                                                                                                      40
                         50                                                                           50




                                                                                                                                                           €/tC
                                                                                                                                                                      30
          €/tC




                                                                                               €/tC
                         40                                                                            40                                                              20
                         30                                                                                                                                            10
                                                                                                       30
                                                                                                                                                                        0
                         20                                                                            20                                                             -10                                 mature
                         10                                   mature                                   10                           mature                            -20
                                                                                                                                                                                                        pole
                                                            pole                                                                  pole                                -30
                          0                                                                             0                                                                                            juvenile
                                                         juvenile                                                              juvenile                                     CC
                                  CC                                                                         CC                                                                     ECH
                                         ECH                                                                      ECH                                                                       HAD
                                                HAD                                                                     HAD




                                                                                                                                                                    additional CSall under real op. MC
                          additional CSall under act. MC                                              additional CSall under act. MC

                                                                                                                                                                     100
                         300                                                                   300




                                                                                                                                             tC/ha over 100 years
                                                                        tC/ha over 100 years
  tC/ha over 100 years




                         250                                                                   250                                                                    50
                         200                                                                   200
                                                                                                                                                                       0
                         150                                                                    150
                         100                                                                    100                                                                   -50
                                                                                                  50                                                                                                      mature
                          50                                  mature                                                               mature
                                                                                                                                                                     -100                               pole
                                                            pole                                      0                          pole
                              0                                                                                                                                             CC                        juvenile
                                                          juvenile                                                             juvenile                                              ECH
                                  CC                                                                        CC    ECH                                                                       HAD
                                          ECH    HAD                                                                    HAD
              Conclusions/ Outlook

MCA demonstrates the conflicting objectives of forest
management under current climate and climate change
STPs maximizing carbon sequestration/ overall stand utility
are adapted to climate change
Economic evaluation: Marginal costs (MC) of carbon
sequestration decrease under assumed climate change


Stakeholders:
 improvements of the timber grading, objectives, criteria,
 priorities, and preference functions
New evaluation: MCA with normal forest simulations
Thank you