Christianity in Global Context: Trends and Statistics
Todd M. Johnson, Ph.D., Director, Center for the Study of Global Christianity, Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary Prepared for the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life
Over the past 100 years, Christianity has experienced a profound southern shift in its geographical center of gravity. Whereas in 1900 over 80% of all Christians lived in Europe and Northern America, by 2005 this proportion had fallen to under 40%, and will likely fall below 30% before 2050. Table 1 shows the meteoric rise of Christianity in the South and its corresponding decline in the North. Table 2 illustrates this major shift by highlighting the cultural traditions of Christianity. Europeans (including Americans of European descent), in the vast majority one hundred years ago, are now in the minority. Today, Africans, Asians and Latin Americans are more typical representatives of Christianity than Americans or Europeans. Table 3 lists the top 10 Christian countries by size. In 1900, with the exception of Brazil, the top 10 were all Western countries; by 2050, only the U.S. will make the list. Table 4 lists the top 10 Muslim countries for the same dates. It is interesting to note that, beginning in 2005, India and Nigeria are common to both lists.
Map 1: Trajectory of the Statistical Center of Global Christianity, AD 33-2100
What might it mean for the future of Christianity that its center of gravity continues From Todd M. Johnson and Sun Young Chung, “Tracking Global Christianity’s Statistical Centre of Gravity, to move south and east? Three key factors bear AD 33-AD 2100,” International Review of Mission, Vol. 93, No. 369 (April 2004), pp. 166-181. watching: (1) whether Southern Christians will challenge Northern Christianity’s 1,000-year dominance in theology and ecclesiology by producing their own reflections and practices, hearkening back to the earliest Christian centuries when they were in the majority; (2) whether the dominant languages of Christianity will continue to shift south (already by 1980, Spanish was the leading language of church membership in the world, and Chinese, Hindi, and Swahili are increasingly important languages of Christianity); and (3) whether the closer geographic proximity between Christians and Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists will on balance result in greater conflict or dialogue. With all three factors, the central question remains: “How well will the new global Christianity navigate its increasingly diverse composition and southern majority?”
Table 1. Christians by UN region, 1900 to 2050
1900
Pop (millions) % Xn % of all Xns Pop (millions)
1970
% Xn % of all Xns Pop (millions)
2005
% Xn % of all Xns Pop (millions)
2025
% Xn % of all Xns Pop (millions)
2050
% Xn % of all Xns
Africa Asia Europe Latin America Northern America Oceania Total
10 22 381 62 79 5 558
9 2 95 95 97 78 35
2 4 68 11 14 1 100
143 101 492 269 212 18 1,234
40 5 75 95 91 93 33
12 8 40 22 17 1 100
411 351 553 517 275 26 2,134
46 9 76 93 83 80 33
19 17 26 24 13 1 100
621 503 535 629 306 30 2,626
48 11 77 92 78 76 33
24 19 20 24 12 1 100
899 621 480 694 356 34 3,083
50 12 76 90 80 73 35
29 20 16 22 12 1 100
Table 2. Global population and Christians by major cultural tradition, 1900 and 2005
1900
Cultural tradition AFRICAN (Bantu, Nilotic, Sudanic) AFRO-AMERICAN (USA Black, Creole) ASIAN (Chinese, Indo-Malay, Korean) EUROPEAN (Caucasian, Germanic, Slav) INDO-IRANIAN (Dravidian, Iranian, North Indian) LATIN AMERICAN (Mestizo, Amerindian) MIDDLE EASTERN (Arab, Berber, Ethiopic) OCEANIC (Fijian, Melanesian, Papuan) WORLD POPULATION Population % world (millions) pop 68 22 684 441 302 48 52 3 1,620 4 2 42 27 19 3 3 * 100 Christians (millions) 2 23 35 440 7 44 9 1 562
2005
% of all Population % world Christians (millions) pop * 4 6 79 1 8 2 * 100 591 148 2,437 938 1,528 390 404 17 6,454 9 2 38 15 24 6 6 * 100 Christians (millions) 320 128 369 685 79 362 63 14 2,020 % of all Christians 16 6 18 34 4 18 3 1 100
Table 3. Top 10 Christian countries, 1900 to 2050
1900
Country USA Russia Germany France Britain Italy Ukraine Poland Spain Brazil Christians (millions) 73 62 42 41 37 33 29 22 19 17 Country USA Brazil Germany Russia Mexico Britain Italy France Philippines Spain
1970
Christians (millions) 191 92 70 50 50 48 48 43 34 33 Country USA Brazil China Mexico Russia Philippines India Germany Nigeria
2005
Christians (millions) 251 167 111 102 84 74 68 62 61 53 Country USA Brazil China Mexico India Philippines Nigeria
2025
Christians (millions) 280 193 174 123 107 96 95 91 85 67 Country USA China Brazil
2050
Christians (millions) 329 218 202 145 137 131 130 112 104 95
Congo-Zaire India Mexico Nigeria Philippines Ethiopia Uganda
Congo-Zaire Russia Ethiopia
Congo-Zaire
Table 4. Top 10 Muslim countries, 1900 to 2050
1900
Country India China Pakistan Bangladesh Indonesia Turkey Iran Egypt Russia Afghanistan Muslims (millions) 32 24 21 19 16 11 10 9 7 5 Country India Pakistan Bangladesh Indonesia Turkey Egypt Iran China Nigeria Morocco
1970
Muslims (millions) 63 60 54 51 36 29 28 21 21 15 Country Pakistan India
2005
Muslims (millions) 155 134 133 122 71 68 64 55 32 31 Country Pakistan
2025
Muslims (millions) 238 185 167 138 89 87 86 82 44 43 Country Pakistan
2050
Muslims (millions) 332 228 188 141 111 110 101 95 84 67
Bangladesh India Indonesia Egypt Iran Turkey Nigeria Afghanistan Yemen
Bangladesh India Indonesia Nigeria Egypt Iran Turkey Yemen Afghanistan
Bangladesh Indonesia Turkey Iran Egypt Nigeria Algeria Morocco
Note: Figures may not sum to the total due to rounding. Source: World Christian Database (www.worldchristiandatabase.org), following the methodology of the World Christian Encyclopedia, 2nd ed. (2001) and World Christian Trends (2001).