Christianity in Global Context: Trends and Statistics

Christianity in Global Context: Trends and Statistics Todd M. Johnson, Ph.D., Director, Center for the Study of Global Christianity, Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary Prepared for the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life Over the past 100 years, Christianity has experienced a profound southern shift in its geographical center of gravity. Whereas in 1900 over 80% of all Christians lived in Europe and Northern America, by 2005 this proportion had fallen to under 40%, and will likely fall below 30% before 2050. Table 1 shows the meteoric rise of Christianity in the South and its corresponding decline in the North. Table 2 illustrates this major shift by highlighting the cultural traditions of Christianity. Europeans (including Americans of European descent), in the vast majority one hundred years ago, are now in the minority. Today, Africans, Asians and Latin Americans are more typical representatives of Christianity than Americans or Europeans. Table 3 lists the top 10 Christian countries by size. In 1900, with the exception of Brazil, the top 10 were all Western countries; by 2050, only the U.S. will make the list. Table 4 lists the top 10 Muslim countries for the same dates. It is interesting to note that, beginning in 2005, India and Nigeria are common to both lists. Map 1: Trajectory of the Statistical Center of Global Christianity, AD 33-2100 What might it mean for the future of Christianity that its center of gravity continues From Todd M. Johnson and Sun Young Chung, “Tracking Global Christianity’s Statistical Centre of Gravity, to move south and east? Three key factors bear AD 33-AD 2100,” International Review of Mission, Vol. 93, No. 369 (April 2004), pp. 166-181. watching: (1) whether Southern Christians will challenge Northern Christianity’s 1,000-year dominance in theology and ecclesiology by producing their own reflections and practices, hearkening back to the earliest Christian centuries when they were in the majority; (2) whether the dominant languages of Christianity will continue to shift south (already by 1980, Spanish was the leading language of church membership in the world, and Chinese, Hindi, and Swahili are increasingly important languages of Christianity); and (3) whether the closer geographic proximity between Christians and Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists will on balance result in greater conflict or dialogue. With all three factors, the central question remains: “How well will the new global Christianity navigate its increasingly diverse composition and southern majority?” Table 1. Christians by UN region, 1900 to 2050 1900 Pop (millions) % Xn % of all Xns Pop (millions) 1970 % Xn % of all Xns Pop (millions) 2005 % Xn % of all Xns Pop (millions) 2025 % Xn % of all Xns Pop (millions) 2050 % Xn % of all Xns Africa Asia Europe Latin America Northern America Oceania Total 10 22 381 62 79 5 558 9 2 95 95 97 78 35 2 4 68 11 14 1 100 143 101 492 269 212 18 1,234 40 5 75 95 91 93 33 12 8 40 22 17 1 100 411 351 553 517 275 26 2,134 46 9 76 93 83 80 33 19 17 26 24 13 1 100 621 503 535 629 306 30 2,626 48 11 77 92 78 76 33 24 19 20 24 12 1 100 899 621 480 694 356 34 3,083 50 12 76 90 80 73 35 29 20 16 22 12 1 100 Table 2. Global population and Christians by major cultural tradition, 1900 and 2005 1900 Cultural tradition AFRICAN (Bantu, Nilotic, Sudanic) AFRO-AMERICAN (USA Black, Creole) ASIAN (Chinese, Indo-Malay, Korean) EUROPEAN (Caucasian, Germanic, Slav) INDO-IRANIAN (Dravidian, Iranian, North Indian) LATIN AMERICAN (Mestizo, Amerindian) MIDDLE EASTERN (Arab, Berber, Ethiopic) OCEANIC (Fijian, Melanesian, Papuan) WORLD POPULATION Population % world (millions) pop 68 22 684 441 302 48 52 3 1,620 4 2 42 27 19 3 3 * 100 Christians (millions) 2 23 35 440 7 44 9 1 562 2005 % of all Population % world Christians (millions) pop * 4 6 79 1 8 2 * 100 591 148 2,437 938 1,528 390 404 17 6,454 9 2 38 15 24 6 6 * 100 Christians (millions) 320 128 369 685 79 362 63 14 2,020 % of all Christians 16 6 18 34 4 18 3 1 100 Table 3. Top 10 Christian countries, 1900 to 2050 1900 Country USA Russia Germany France Britain Italy Ukraine Poland Spain Brazil Christians (millions) 73 62 42 41 37 33 29 22 19 17 Country USA Brazil Germany Russia Mexico Britain Italy France Philippines Spain 1970 Christians (millions) 191 92 70 50 50 48 48 43 34 33 Country USA Brazil China Mexico Russia Philippines India Germany Nigeria 2005 Christians (millions) 251 167 111 102 84 74 68 62 61 53 Country USA Brazil China Mexico India Philippines Nigeria 2025 Christians (millions) 280 193 174 123 107 96 95 91 85 67 Country USA China Brazil 2050 Christians (millions) 329 218 202 145 137 131 130 112 104 95 Congo-Zaire India Mexico Nigeria Philippines Ethiopia Uganda Congo-Zaire Russia Ethiopia Congo-Zaire Table 4. Top 10 Muslim countries, 1900 to 2050 1900 Country India China Pakistan Bangladesh Indonesia Turkey Iran Egypt Russia Afghanistan Muslims (millions) 32 24 21 19 16 11 10 9 7 5 Country India Pakistan Bangladesh Indonesia Turkey Egypt Iran China Nigeria Morocco 1970 Muslims (millions) 63 60 54 51 36 29 28 21 21 15 Country Pakistan India 2005 Muslims (millions) 155 134 133 122 71 68 64 55 32 31 Country Pakistan 2025 Muslims (millions) 238 185 167 138 89 87 86 82 44 43 Country Pakistan 2050 Muslims (millions) 332 228 188 141 111 110 101 95 84 67 Bangladesh India Indonesia Egypt Iran Turkey Nigeria Afghanistan Yemen Bangladesh India Indonesia Nigeria Egypt Iran Turkey Yemen Afghanistan Bangladesh Indonesia Turkey Iran Egypt Nigeria Algeria Morocco Note: Figures may not sum to the total due to rounding. Source: World Christian Database (www.worldchristiandatabase.org), following the methodology of the World Christian Encyclopedia, 2nd ed. (2001) and World Christian Trends (2001).