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DELL & CompuDirect.ru relation
Prepared by
Matthieu Déjardins
Managing Director
Confidential
Matthieu Dejardins
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DELL EDB Geographical
Coverage vs. EMEA
Dell’s European Distribution Business (EDB) works with partners in the Emerging Markets of Russia, Eastern Europe, Mediterranean , the Middle East and Africa
EMEA: 103 countries
21 Direct (9 ex-indirect) 77 Indirect 5 Prohibited countries
122 Distributors
April 2005
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Russian Market
Q1’05 assumptions
2% 10%
88%
Other Tier 1: HPQ, IBM, Fujitsu Siemens, Toshiba, Acer
Key facts:
Local Brand DELL Other Tier 1
- White box dominates across all form factors with 88.5 % of the total market
- Dell will only represents around 1.5 % of the market vs. 1 % last quarter
April 2005
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Q4'03 Q4'04 Share Units Share Growth y/y Growth Gap
Units by Formfactor – Russia
IDC Q4'04 Finals
SV
DT
Dell HP IBM FSC ACER Toshiba White Box Total
Units
4,900 36,338 13,000 8,829 620 1,137,358 1,201,045
Q4'03
0.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 94.7%
6,810 36,249 12,810 2,595 8,349 1,446,589 1,513,402
Q4'04
0.4% 39.0% 13.0% 2.4% -0.2% -26.3% 0.8% -1.5% -27.5% 0.2% -70.6% -96.6% 0.6% 1246.6% 1220.6% 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 95.6% 27.2% 1.2% 26.0%
Growth Share y/y Growth Gap
100%
NB
80
60
DT
NB
Dell HP IBM FSC ACER Toshiba White Box Total
Units
Share
Units
6,110 8,992 3,750 5,445 3,414 9,884 52,873 90,468
Q4'03
6.8% 9.9% 4.1% 6.0% 3.8% 10.9% 58.4%
10,950 13,259 5,912 10,655 21,254 15,908 163,159 241,097
Q4'04
4.5% 5.5% 2.5% 4.4% 8.8% 6.6% 67.7%
79.2% -87.3% 47.5% -119.0% 57.7% -108.8% 95.7% -70.8% 522.6% 356.1% 60.9% -105.6% 208.6% 42.1% 166.5%
Growth Growth Gap
40
Market
20
SV
Dell HP IBM FSC ACER Toshiba White Box Total
Units
Share
Units
Share
y/y
0
410 6,533 2,738 182 126 15,028 25,017
Q4'03
1.6% 26.1% 10.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 60.1%
450 6,831 3,597 193 100 17,414 28,585
Q4'04
1.6% 23.9% 12.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 60.9%
9.8% -4.5% 4.6% -9.7% 31.4% 17.1% 6.0% -8.2% -20.6% -34.9% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15.9% 1.6% 14.3%
Growth Growth Gap
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
SV
100%
80
NB
All
Dell HP IBM FSC ACER Toshiba White Box Total
Units
Share
Units
Share
y/y
60
11,420 51,863 19,488 14,456 4,160 9,884 1,205,259 1,316,530
0.9% 3.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 91.5%
18,210 56,339 22,319 13,443 29,703 15,908 1,627,162 1,783,084
1.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 91.3%
59.5% 8.6% 14.5% -7.0% 614.0% 60.9% 35.0% 35.4%
24.0% -26.8% -20.9% -42.4% 578.6% 25.5% -0.4%
40
Dell
DT
20
Key facts:
- Dell is not well represented on the “desktop
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
market” with only 43 % mix on a segment that represents Matthieu Dejardins April 2005 91 % of total market = OPPORTUNITY
4
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Desktop Market - Russia
IDC Q4'04 Finals
Whitebox vs Tier 1 Suppliers
100%
Tier 1 Vendor
80
Key facts:
- Penetration is decreasing for Tier 1 suppliers
White Box
60
- Potential increase of the market is coming from
40
LCA and Home markets
20
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
Market Segments
100%
PUB
q/q Growth y/y Growth 50.0% 30.9% 22.5% 100.9%
80
LC
60
SMB
17.4%
5.6%
40
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
Home
20
49.2%
59.3%
April 2005
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5%
Desktop Vendor Share- Russia
IDC Q4'04 Finals
q/q Growth y/y Growth
Key facts:
Market Share
4
- Tier 1 Desktop market is decreasing, except for DELL and Fujitsu-Siemens
3 HP 2 IBM ACER Dell FSC -45.9% 12.7% 68.6% 38.0% -1.5% 1,246.6% 39.0% -70.6% 10.8% -0.2%
1
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
April 2005 Note: Only covers Tier Matthieu Dejardins 1 Vendors, not White Box Vendors
6
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Notebook Market - Russia
IDC Q4'04 Finals
Whitebox vs Tier 1 Suppliers
100% 80
White Box
60
Tier 1 Vendor
40
20
Key facts:
- Whitebox are very active on the notebook
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
Market Segments
100% q/q Growth y/y Growth
PUB
LC
market and are gaining market share on Tier1 brands.
- SMB and Home are the fastest growing
59.5% 39.7%
140.1% 87.0%
segments for notebooks. Public Administration as well.
80
60
SMB
66.0%
149.7%
40
20
Home
77.4%
257.6%
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
April 2005
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20%
Notebook Vendor Share- Russia
IDC Q4'04 Finals
q/q Growth y/y Growth
Market Share
Key facts:
15
- Notebooks are growing fast in Russia, but Dell has experienced a share drop in the last few quarters that should be compensated by next quarter sales (15,000 units sold).
10
ACER HP Dell FSC IBM TOSHIBA
48.8% 25.1% 223.0% 55.5% 14.4% 26.5%
522.6% 47.5% 79.2% 95.7% 57.7% 22.9%
5
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
April 2005 Note: Only covers Tier Matthieu Dejardins 1 Vendors, not White Box Vendors
8
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Server Market - Russia
IDC Q4'04 Finals
Whitebox vs Tier 1 Suppliers
80
Tier 1 Vendor
100%
60
40
White Box
Key facts:
- Tier 1 is slowly winning some market shares.
20
0
- SMB is the only segment of growth =
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
OPPORTUNITY
Market Segments
100%
PUB
q/q Growth y/y Growth 22% 19%
LC
-19% 2%
80
60
40
SMB
33%
32%
20
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
April 2005
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40%
Server Vendor Share- Russia
IDC Q4'04 Finals
q/q Growth y/y Growth
Key facts:
Market Share
30
- Huge increase for IBM, good one for DELL and considerable loss of market share for Acer.
HP 20 IBM 10 Dell FSC Acer
28.2%
4.6%
5.1% 181.3% -35.2% -86.0%
31.4% 9.8% 6.0% -20.6%
0
Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 Q2'04 Q3'04 Q4'04
April 2005 Note: Only covers Tier Matthieu Dejardins 1 Vendors, not White Box Vendors
10
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RF Internet Market
PCs & Adult Internet Users as %
6 0 .0 0 % 2 5 .0 0 %
PCs (% of Adults)
5 0 .0 0 %
Adult Internet Users (% of Adults)
2 0 .0 0 %
4 0 .0 0 % 15 .0 0 %
3 0 .0 0 %
10 .0 0 % 2 0 .0 0 %
5 .0 0 % 10 .0 0 %
0 .0 0 % 19 9 8 19 9 9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F
0 .0 0 %
April 2005
Source: Intel Matthieu Dejardins
11
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RF Internet Market
RF Internet Usage
9,000,000
Moscow Users
8,000,000
St.Pete Users Total Regional Users
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
12
2004
2005F
2006F
2007F
2008F
2009F
April 2005
Source: Intel Matthieu Dejardins
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RF Internet Market
Retail Sales (% of GDP)
2009F 2008F 2007F 2006F 2005F 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
13
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
April 2005
Source: Intel Matthieu Dejardins
http://www. dejardins.com
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RF Internet Market
Retail e-Commerce
1.00% 0.90% 0.80%
Retail e-Commerce (% of GDP) Retail e-Commerce (% of Retail Sales)
0.70% 0.60%
0.50% 0.40%
0.30% 0.20%
0.10% 0.00% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F
April 2005
Source: Intel Matthieu Dejardins
14
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RF Internet Market
Russian e-Commerce Retail Market
$2,500
Retail e-Commerce (US$M) Adult Internet Users
16 14 12 10 8
Millions
$2,000
$1,500
US$M
$1,000
6 4
$500 2 $1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
15
0 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F
April 2005
Matthieu Dejardins
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Mapping of DELL EDB partners
DELL
DELL System
Croc
Trinity
Merlion
R
Compudirect
R
Gov/LCA
GS
SMB
Home
April 2005
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16
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