Introduction to the Baseline Risk Analysis Ch. 62-302, FAC

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					Introduction to the Baseline Risk Analysis Ch. 62-302, FAC
Steve Roberts, Ph.D.

In 1995, the legislature created the requirement that FDEP and FDACS prepare a Risk Impact Statement (RIS) for any rule proposed for adoption or approval that establishes or changes standards or criteria based on human health (Section 120.54, Florida Statutes). The RIS is used to inform the public and other stakeholders regarding the affect of the rule on public health risks. Conducting an RIS involves some assessment of baseline risks (before the rule action) and the change in risk anticipated to occur as a result of the rule.

Ch. 62-302 Workshop, September 18, 2003

“Guidelines for Risk Analyses Undertaken in Conjunction with Rule-Making” Florida RiskBased Priority Council, December, 1996. Several recommendations:
RIS process should occur during formulation of the rule to guide rule development. There should be broad stakeholder involvement. The RIS should undergo scientific/technical peer review.

Ch. 62-302 Workshop, September 18, 2003

Steps in Baseline Risk Assessment
Problem formulation: Conducted through a series of stakeholder workshops Developed a conceptual model and list of risk hypotheses Formulation of approach to risk assessment Scope and boundaries Basic technical approach (e.g., use probabilistic assessment). Final product of this process was a Risk Analysis Work Plan.
Ch. 62-302 Workshop, September 18, 2003

Conducting the Analysis
Some aspects clearly laid out, others were based on preliminary analyses specified in the Work Plan. A draft analysis was prepared and subjected to external peer review. Dr. Dale Hattis, Clark University Dr. Phil Goodrum, Syracuse Research Corp. Dr. Paul Price, The LifeLine Group Modifications were made to the analysis, resulting in the report presented today. Change in derivation of fish ingestion distribution and inclusion of dermal and inhalation exposure while showering.
Ch. 62-302 Workshop, September 18, 2003

Using the Risk Analysis Tool
• Estimates of baseline risks – those associated with current Chapter 62-302 standards – are presented. - From this, a determination can be made whether those risks are acceptable. • The risk analysis tool can also be used to estimate risks associated with any proposed new surface water standards. • Ultimately, if new surface water standards are adopted, a comparison of risks between the “baseline” and proposed new standards will be the principal basis for constructing the RIS.
Ch. 62-302 Workshop, September 18, 2003

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