Introduction Roadmap Workshop of the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight 22 & 23 January 2004
1) The Roadmap workshop’s role in the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight At the Scenario Workshop at the University in Reykjavik we discussed the external conditions around the hydrogen society. That concerned general issues that we cannot affect but that are likely to affect introduction of H2 Energy in the Nordic energy system. The Scenario workshop produced three scenario sketches for Nordic H2 energy introduction. At the Vision Workshop at FOI in Stockholm we brainstormed about hydrogen technology visions for the hydrogen society. Opposite the scenario workshop the vision workshop addressed issues that can be affected. Also at the Vision Workshop we did a first preliminary focusing on the most important issues – those with the highest technical feasibility today and the largest future Nordic market potential. This was based on a questionnaire on the vision list developed in a brainstorming session. At the Roadmap Workshop at Risø in Roskilde we will outline the sequence of implementation and mutual interdependence of the hydrogen technology visions from today and until 2030. Furthermore, we will discuss barriers and carriers for realizing the visions. These barriers might be in relation to science, education, business creation (equipment markets), energy markets and general societal and policy issues. The roadmaps will outline key issues and challenges in hydrogen and fuel cell energy development and suggest paths (roads) that Nordic industry, energy companies, academia and governments can take to expand the use of hydrogen and fuel cell based energy. Roadmap reports from other countries (primarily from the USA) are very detailed on the technological and economical achievements - i.e. reduction of US$/kW of equipment or reduction of the weight of onboard H2 storage. Such data are extensively used in this Nordic project’s systems analysis part. But this project aims at linking such technical and economical performance data to overall targets and market sizes in a Nordic context.
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The roadmaps will be the backbone for the next step of the foresight process – a coordinated and focused effort at Nordic level to be developed in the Action Workshop in Finland later in 2004. Also the roadmaps will guide systems analysis simulations of market sized and other economical consequences of introducing hydrogen energy in the Nordic energy systems. The US National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap was also initiated at a two day Workshop – but with 200 participants from science and industry. And all key issues were elaborated in a 4 – 5 pages chapter in the roadmap report. This is far beyond the frames of our Nordic project. Hence, it is not the aim of the workshop (or the project) to develop a very detailed roadmap for the hydrogen society. The aim and the challenge is to develop a manageable number of ambitious but realistic visions and paths for hydrogen in the Nordic countries and arrive at recommendations for further activities for industry, science communities and policy makers. One guideline is that the visual presentation of each roadmap (each for production, transport and stationary use) must be compressed to one page.
2) Process the Technology Roadmap Workshop At the workshop three groups will be formed: 1. Production and distribution (or at least production related transmission) of hydrogen 2. Hydrogen used in the transport sector (also including related distribution and retail) 3. Stationary use of hydrogen (also including related distribution and retail) The fourth group has been considered on portable user of H2/FC systems in Tasks of the three workgroups consumer electronics. At the Vision 1. Stipulate the sequence of Workshop this fourth area was implementation and the interemphasised as one with a strong Nordic dependence of the hydrogen interest. On the other hand the workshop technology visions from today and organisers suggest that this field be until 2030. The groups are asked to handled otherwise. There are two outline these sequences (roads) under reasons for this. First, the technology the assumption of the P2 scenario. and solutions on consumer electronics are believed to be of such a different 2. Discuss business opportunities for kind that there will be very limited spillNordic equipment industry. over effects or early market effects affecting transport and stationary (heat & 3. Discuss energy market opportunities for the energy firms in the Nordic power) use of H2 and fuel cells. Second, countries. the use of H2 and fuel cells in consumer electronics will only have a marginal effect on the overall energy systems. The key issue here is not concerning energy but concerning functionality.
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The first task for the groups is to stipulate the sequence of implementation and the interdependence of hydrogen technology visions from today and until 2030. The groups are asked to outline these roads under the assumption of the scenario: “Primacy of Politics – Undisputable CO2 problems”. Attached to this introduction is a short sketch of this scenario. Afterwards the core group will determine variations in the roadmaps according to two other scenarios. But if time allows, the workgroup is could discuss variations in the two other scenarios. To facilitate the group work some preliminary roadmaps are presented.
Some terms By a vision we mean desired future state (or a state worth striving for). Hydrogen technology visions are future-oriented statements concerning useful/desired ways of utilising hydrogen based energy technologies in the Nordic context. Put together according to their interdependency these technology visions create socio-technical visions. Technologies and technology visions do not exist in a vacuum. They also have specific societal, economical and industrial components. For example the vision of hydrogen/fuel cell driven cars also comprises production and retail of hydrogen, manufacturing of cars and other equipment, comprehensive new legislation, standardisation etc. Even changed consumer behaviour might be included in that vision.
So far we have only discussed issues on a technology level (H2 production technologies and processes, transmission and distribution infrastructure, storage technologies, conversion to power and/or heat, user in transport, etc.) The second task is to discuss: What business opportunities will this create for Nordic industry? - Business opportunities - Business development in the match between technologies and markets, finance, industrial standards). The third task is to discuss: What energy market opportunities will this create for the energy firms in the Nordic countries? - market mechanisms, and - end use markets for hydrogen energy. At the workshop’s second day barriers and drivers (or “needs”) will be discussed along the themes of • Research, development and education • Technology • Markets (Energy markets and industrial markets) • Regulation and public concern
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3) Workgroup on production and distribution of hydrogen At the vision workshop a total number of 23 hydrogen technology visions were listed under the headline of production and distribution of hydrogen. To help the readers, a simple clustering of the vision statements was done by the workshop co-ordinators.
Production technologies 101 Gasification of coal, sequestration & H2 pipeline 103 Methane by high temp catalysis in fuel cells 105 Distributed H2 production based on fermentation 106 Distributed H2 production based on celluloses 108 H2 Production via photolysis 109 H2 production via biological processes 111 Wind power for H2 112 H2 from reform of natural gas 113 High term water splitting 114 Industry waste & by-products 116 Electrical production from photovoltaics 117 H2 production by artificial photosynthesis 118 Energy production based on renewable energy
119 Gasification of biomass 120 H2 from human waste 122 Biobased H2 123 Solarbased H2 Transport 110 Ship transport of H2 115 Large-scale transport of H2 to storage Distribution 102 10% H2 in natural gas grid from local sources 104 H2 filling stations from local production Storage 107 Large scale/long-term storage as national/regional buffer
At the vision workshop the preliminary focusing pointed at four important issues:
Technical feasibility today
Production and distribution of H2 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Nordic market potential 2030 112 111 119 116 114 123 102 115 104 110 122 101120 113 103107 105 106 108 109 117 118
111 Wind power for H2 112 H2 from reform of natural gas 118 Energy production from RE 119 Gasification of biomass
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During the following brainstorm two further issues were mentioned under high temperature water splitting:
Nuclear thermo-chemical water splitting Geothermal water splitting
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The following brainstorm at the vision seminar also created the following bullets: • Nordic H2 pool (like the NordPool for electricity) • H2 pipeline distribution • Fusion based H2 • H2 from municipal waste • H2 from nuclear power • Generation of H2 from hydropower surplus in Canada, Russia • Smooting RES-buffer 4
Workgroup on production and distribution of hydrogen - continued The key question here is to outline the road to the production of H2 fulfilling the “Big Visions” of the three scenarios: • 15% for both the E1 and the P2 scenarios • 7% of all energy in the Nordics through hydrogen for the B3 scenario and Will we start with H2 from natural gas or from electricity (or from biomass)? And what will the sequence of implementation of technologies be from the production of today to the production of the scenarios in 2030. As in other international hydrogen roadmap projects a key question is the balance (and order of appearance) between H2 from natural gas (or other fossils) and H2 from renewables. Also the likely role of nuclear energy must be considered. Below we have outlined an indicative roadmap to inspire the group work.
Production and distribution
Technology
119 Gasification of biomass H2 from artificial photo synthesis
105 Distributed H2 production based on fermentation 111 H2 from electrolysis based on wind power 113 High term water splitting 103 Methane by high temp catalysis in fuel cells 112 H2 from reform of natural gas 101 gasification of coal, sequestration & H2 pipeline ?? 115 Large scale transport of H2 to storage Phase out ??
Equipment business
Markets for equipment
Energy markets
Markets for energy 107 large scale/longterm storage as nat/regional buffer
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4) Workgroup on hydrogen used in the transport sector At the vision workshop a total number of 17 hydrogen technology visions were listed under the headline of hydrogen used in the transport sector. To help the readers, a simple clustering of the vision statements was done by the workshop co-ordinators.
Busses 201 H2 driven FC/electric city buses Cars 203 H2 FC/electric drives in new private cars 214 FC in private vehicles 215 Public transport on oil, private on H2 216 FC fleet public transport/taxi Special cars / functionality markets of H2/FC 204 H2 FC/electric drives for small specialty vehicles Trains 217 H2 FC driving trains for non-electrified distances Ships 209 methane driven FC/electric engines for ships Aviation 213 H2 for civil aviation H2 storage 205 pressurised tanks for H2 in transport 206 storage of H2 as methane or methanol for transport 207 solid state (hydrides) storage of H2 for transport 208 H2 storage in nanotubes Drive trains and fuel cells 210 H2. INIC - engine (new hybrid) 211 Metal air FC 212 Hybrid ICE Cars
At the vision workshop the preliminary focusing pointed at following important issues:
202 H2 driven FC/electric city buses 203 H2 FC/electric drives in new private cars 204 H2 FC/electric drives for small specialty vehicles (Fork lifters, golf cars) 205 Pressurised tanks for H2 in transport 206 Storage of H2 as methane or methanol for transport 209 methane driven FC/electric engines for ships 216 FC in fleets/public transport/taxi
Technical feasibility today
H2 in transport 5 4 3 215 2 208 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Nordic market potential 2030
202 205 204201 206216 212 209 214 210 207 203 217 213 211
The following brainstorm at the vision seminar also comprised the following bullets: • Introduction of fuel cells in taxi and other fleet vehicles • Niche markets of 100 000 cars in 2020-2030. • FC/H2(or equivalent) for aux. power in ships reaching 50% market share 2030 • Short sea ships/cruisers 20-30% 2030? • 50% on hydrogenated fuels in 2030 • 25% of the Nordic fleet (aviation?) is running on H2 in 2030
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Workgroup on hydrogen used in the transport sector - continued Again the key question here is how to arrive at transport’s part of the H3 vision for 2030. We do not yet know transport’s part relative to stationary use’s part. That might be an outcome of the workshop or of the following systems analysis. The sequence of hydrogen technology vision must comprise the timeframes of introducing niche applications of special vehicles, cars and busses – if realistic also ships and aviation. The timeframe and sequence of technology implemented in cars, busses etc for a wider audience is also needed. It is quite clear that Nordic industry will play a minor global role in the design and manufacturing of H2/FC driven cars, busses, trains etc. The US National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Workshop mentions the following milestones: • CARB ZEV mandate for bus fleets: 15% of all vehicles in 2008 • ZEV Fleet demos (cars): <100 immediately • ZEV Fleets (cars?): 5000+ by 2008-2012. Indicatively, the vision workshop focused on infrastructure equipment as the most likely business opportunity. The workshop is therefore asked to outline business opportunities for Nordic industry. The third question is then about the energy market opportunities will this create for the energy firms in the Nordic countries. This is closely linked to the energy market considerations of the “production and distribution”. But here we might focus on energy for transport – for example filling stations. Below we have outlined an indicative roadmap to inspire the group work.
Transport
Technology
201 H2 driven FC/electric city buses 204 H2 FC/electric drives for small specialty vehicles 216 FC fleet public transport/taxi 203 H2 FC/electric drives in new private cars 209 methane driven FC/electric engines for ships
205 pressurised tanks for H2 in transport
206 storage of H2 as methane or methanol for transport 207 solid state (hydrides) storage of H2 for transport
Equipment business
Energy markets
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5) Workgroup on stationary use of hydrogen At the vision workshop a total number of 26 hydrogen technology visions were listed under the headline of stationary use of hydrogen. To help the readers, a simple clustering of the vision statements was done by the workshop co-ordinators.
Power Backup 306 H2 FC power back-up Micro CHP and Stand-Alone 301 Natural gas driven FC for domestic heat & power 302 Natural gas/H2 driven FC as part of load management 310 ICT-based flexible termo-economic controlling 314 retail H2 w. small hydrid stor. for multifunct. small FCs 315 highly dispersed energy systems 311 combinat. small-scale en. prod. (FC, battery, solar) 312 summer cottage demos - H2 close to people 313 stand-alone H2 for el. and heat (export idea) 319 mobile power plants for extr. Conditions 317 mobile H2 power plants for schools - H2 in education Grid connected CHP 303 central CHP plants based on H2 320 H2 used for stationary combustion engines
321 intelligent dec. H2 energy systems grid connected 322 decentralized CHP plants Other issues 304 available capital for investments 305 LH2 expansion for cooling 307 effective methods for using demoexperience 308 nat.gas + SOFC to pure CO2 and/or condense 309 what energy consumption cannot be filled by H2 316 small scale sequestration of CO2 Portable use (Consumer electronics) and functionality markets 318 minituarized H2 based technologies 323 power sources for mobile communication 324 market opportunities for portable electronics 325 H2 FC replaces batteries 326 H2 for tools and small boats with ICE
At the vision workshop the preliminary focusing pointed at following important issues:
Technical feasibility today
Stationary use of H2 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Nordic m arket potential 2030 303 305 316 322 324 320306 323 314 307315 312 308301 302 311 317319 313 318325 309 321 326 304 310
301 Natural gas driven FC for domestic heat & power 322 Decentralized CHP plants 323 Power sources for mobile communication 324 market opportunities for portable electronics
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Workgroup on stationary use of hydrogen - continued Again the key question here is how to arrive at stationary heat and power’s part of the H3 vision for 2030. We do not yet know stationary heat and power’s part relative to transport’s part. That might be an outcome of the workshop or of a following systems analysis. The sequence of the hydrogen technology vision must comprise the timeframes of introducing niche applications such as H2/FC power back up systems plants. A key question concerns the transition from natural gas and traditional burners to hydrogen and fuel cells. Which road will this transition follow?. The timeframe and sequence of technology implemented in domestic CHP, decentral CHP etc. is also needed. The participants of the Vision workshop judged this area to be the most interesting for Nordic industry. Therefore, a discussion of the actual market possibilities here are of key interest. Already now a number of Nordic fuel cell manufactures are active – but in also very small service and maintenance firms in the domestic heating sector have shown surprising interest. The following brainstorm at the vision seminar also comprised the following bullets:
Paths to stationary use of H2
Technology
310 ICT-based flexible termo-economic controlling 306 H2 FC power back-up 301 Natural gas driven FC for domestic heat & power 312 summer cottage demos - H2 close to people 322 H2 driven decentralized CHP plants
Equipment business
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Appendix. Short introduction to the scenarios
The fundamental logic of the Nordic H2 introduction scenarios is as follows: First a Nordic policy strategy is posited – an initial scenario. It is assumed that Nordic decision-makers in the near term decide to aspire for as internationally leading a position in H2 as reasonable. Then this original policy commitment is set against each of the three first-period scenarios (—2015): B – Big Business is Back; E – Energy Entrepreneurs and Smart Policies; and P – Primacy of Politics in the form of new sections on Nordic developments in H2 energy 2003-2015. Thirdly three second-period scenarios (2015—30) are set against each of the firstperiod scenarios: 1 – Hydrocarbon security-of-supply problems due to political disturbances; 2 – Undisputable CO2 problems; and 3 – A smooth path to the future, which is, perhaps, not so smooth for hydrogen. Combining the first- and secondperiod scenarios we end up with nine scenario sketches (Figure 1). In the Stockholm vision workshop only three of these were explored: B3 – a sort of worst-case scenario; E1 – an intermediate case; and P2 – arguably a “best-case” scenario. First-period scenarios (—2015:) P – Primacy of Politics This future is a Europe-centric economy characterised by co-operation between governments and big business and with a great interest in large-scale investment in, e.g., energy and transport systems. There is some interest for global environmental issues. Oil prices are high due to security-of-supply problems and an important driver for energy sector change. General societal developments 2003-2015 The 9/11 terrorist attacks and the ensuing War on Terrorism meant a long period of decline in the world economy. Low intensity warfare in the Middle East and Central Asia and frequent outbursts of catastrophic terrorism in particular meant an insecure and expensive supply of oil and gas. Notably sea lines of communication were hard to defend against terrorist attacks. The rift between US and the “Old Europe” led by Germany and France starting with the diplomatic clash preceding the Iraq campaign remained and deepened. This in combination with the poor performance of the US dominated world economy led to arguments for a more “European” approach building on cooperation between governments and industry organisations for creating stable conditions: While this may be a less successful strategy in highly innovative phases, these are typically of limited duration and the moderately fast follower, who carefully evaluates the innovators’ wild ideas and resolutely invests according to these evaluations, tends to win out in the long run when the world settles down to a new equilibrium. Also stable conditions favour modernisation when it comes to slow-moving infrastructure, e.g. energy and transport systems. In contrast the American entrepreneurial approach tends to lead to trying to reap fast gains à la Enron.
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And in fact this European strategy of la longue durée seems to work. From around 2010 the new Wirtschaftswunder of the “Old Europe” is an apparent aspect of the world economy. The more “Americanised” European economies, e.g. the Nordic countries, were less successful – as the US itself, and tended to move towards the more hands-on policy approach of France and Germany. The European leadership role of France and Germany is also mirrored in culture and values, e.g. in terms of more people learning their languages and going there to study or work. Technology and innovation 2003-2015 Major RDT programmes in close collaboration between governments and established industries have emerged as the main European instrument for industrial policy with the express purpose of translating the Airbus concept to other sectors of the economy, i.e. establishing world-leading Pan-European firms in established high-tech industries. SMEs are seen as suppliers to the big firms (rather than independent engines of innovation) and are supported by a well-functioning knowledge infrastructure primarily aimed at constantly improving their productivity. Settlement and mobility 2003-2015 In addition to the high price of oil also the problematic traffic situation in European conurbations is an important driver of European policy. The main approach is more effective public transit plus congestion charging. The settlement pattern is going more and more towards the multicentricity of Randstad in the Netherlands, The Öresund region and the East Middle Sweden region now integrated by regional rapid rail extending to Linköping, Örebro and Gävle. Telecommuting and teleshopping grow, but at a moderate pace. Also in European freight transport there is a strong trend towards rail. Alternative fuels are a big issue worldwide. The agricultural lobby tends to win support for ethanol – both in Europe and the US. In the US alternative hydrocarbons like tar sands also have strong proponents. Energy sector developments 2003-2015 There are significant European investment programmes for all types of large-scale non-fossil energy production, e.g. nuclear and wind power parks. Nordic developments in H2 energy –2015 There was a tough fight among European countries and regions over the energy research Euro invested by European programmes and industry in large-scale facilities across the continent from the late 00’s onwards. While this dirigiste approach to energy innovation was perhaps not the preferred alternative by Nordic actors – more used to deregulation and market-based approaches that most in Europe – it still turned out that the bottom-up coordination approach was helpful in finding good RTD niches for the Nordic countries in the overall European consort. Niches that effectively exploited the fact that several big energy companies are head-quarted in the Nordic countries – an obvious strength according to the prevailing approach. But Nordic policies were also put in place to
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harness the innovative power of SME:s active in the small commercial niches for H2 and other new energy technologies. This differed from the more Establishmentoriented Pan-European policies and led in fact to the Nordic countries being particularly good at exploiting new solutions that failed to satisfy the requirements for large-scale use – but that still could be perfectly useful for niche applications. Developments 2015–2030: Development 2. Undisputable CO2 problems 2015–30. The political unrest leading to oil and gas shortages remained until around 2015 when a strong modernist movement in Moslem countries, starting in Iran, swept away Islamic extremism. Around 2020 it became untenable to dispute CO2 problems – even in the States. In Europe this problematique had already replaced the failing security-of-supply problems as the main argument for the big energy innovation programme, already supported by strong vested interests. H2 energy now became the political buzzword of the day and strong political backing led to a considerable market penetration for large-scale H2 energy in Europe – and of course in the Nordic countries – already by 2030. Assessment of ease of introduction by scenario Before the Vision Workshop a matrix was presented featuring a first assessment of the ease of H2 introduction for the 3*3 context scenarios arising from combining the three 2003-15 scenarios with the three 2015-30 developments. Based on the multiperson thought experiment of the Vision Workshop, and the ensuing back-office work some changes are motivated.
Developments 2015-30 External scenarios 2003-15 B – Big Business Is Back Red Green Red 1. Hydrocarbon security-ofsupply problems 2. Undisputable CO2 problems 3. A smooth path to the future
B3 6–7%
Green Green Yellow
E – Energy Entrepreneurs and Smart Policies P – Primacy of Politics
E1 14 – 16%
Yellow Green Yellow
P2 16 – 19 %
Figure 1: The 3*3 external scenarios with assessed ease of H2 introduction colour coded (green – easy, yellow – intermediate, red – difficult). B3, E1 and P2 where the scenarios used at the Vision Workshop. The figures indicates Vision Workshop’s estimate of the overall potential in the Nordic countries in 2030.
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