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STROUD STORY

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STROUD STORY Powered By Docstoc
					  Produced by the Gloucestershire County Council
    Environment Directorate Research Team for




            T ew kesbu ry
            Borough Council




The Tewkesbury
     Story
               2004




                        1
                                CONTENTS




                                                       Page


SUMMARY                                                3


1. SUPPORTING A BUOYANT ECONOMY
   A   School Age Education                            8
   B   Adult Education                                 11
   C   Labour Supply and Demand                        14
   D   Affordable Housing                              16
   E   Agriculture                                     18
   F   Unemployment                                    20


2. A SAFE, CLEAN & CARED FOR COMMUNITY
   A    Safer Communities                              21
   B    Recycling                                      24


3. IMPROVING ACCESS TO SERVICES
   A    Meeting Local Transport Needs Effectively      25
   B    Black and Minority Ethnic Groups               28


4. PROVIDING SUPPORT AND INVESTMENT IN THE COMMUNITY

   A     Managing and Enhancing the Environment        29
   B     Young People                                  31
   C     Older People                                  34
   D     Health                                        38




                                     2
                                        SUMMARY

Introduction:
Tewkesbury district is a medium sized district with a relatively small population, which is
expected to grow rapidly over the next 20 years. It is relatively prosperous in economic
terms and has low unemployment. A considerable proportion of the population
commute to neighbouring areas, relying heavily on the car for transport. The location of
the town of Tewkesbury itself, on the M5, makes it a good location for commuting to the
nearby towns of Gloucester and Cheltenham, and also Birmingham to the north.

Educational attainment for both school age and the adult population are above average.
The health of the local population is generally good and crime levels are very low.

Principal policy issues in the district need to consider how best to accommodate the
needs of the rapidly expanding population. With a growth in economically active people
transportation will be a primary concern (taking into account the high car and low public
transport usage). With an ageing population, increasing number of pensioners living
alone and the lack of provision for retirement, there will be an increasing pressure on
public sector resources to care for older people.

The following analysis looks in detail at available data, grouped against the District
Council’s four key priority areas. Arrows indicating worsening , improving  or static
 conditions.


1      Supporting a Buoyant Economy

Overview: In educational terms, pupil numbers will grow significantly over the next 20
years. Tewkesbury district pupils perform significantly better at all key stages than the
national averages. The adult population is also set to increase and has levels of
literacy, numeracy and qualifications that also exceed national averages. There are
significantly more economically active people than there are jobs in the district, a
problem that is due to increase. As a result, it is likely that there has been a significant
growth in journeys to work from the district to Gloucester and Cheltenham, where jobs
are more readily available. Tewkesbury district has seen a growth in the service sector
and a decline in manufacturing following national trends. VAT registered businesses
have risen at a faster than county and national rate. Overall the district has good
income levels and affordable housing in the area is better than most districts, but
remains well below national levels. Unemployment is comparatively low and falling.

           The total school age population and below will increase by just over
            5,000 between 2001 and 2021. Broken down, the 0-3 and 4-10 year old
            populations are higher than the county by 2011 and higher than national
            proportions from 2021, while the 11-16 and 17-19 age groups are the
            same as the county, and below the county respectively.
           Tewkesbury district pupils score above the national average at each key
            stage and are one of the top three districts in the county at each key
            stage. Statementing and the eligibility of free school meals are relatively
            low in the district, with the exception of among Special Schools.


                                              3
 Adult education should be seen within the context of a substantially
  increasing adult population, although in absolute terms this will largely
  remain below the county averages. Levels of low literacy and numeracy
  are well below national average levels. The percentage of adults with no
  qualifications is lower than the county and national percentages.
 Rates of lower-level qualifications (A level and below) exceed both the
  county and national level. Attainment of higher-level qualifications (degree
  or equivalent and above) is the same as the county average, but still
  above national figures.
 Employment: between 1991 and 2015 Tewkesbury district will see the
  largest percentage increase in the supply of labour from residents in the
  area, as the working population increases. Despite a predicted increase
  in demand by the local economy, there is a significant short fall of jobs,
  particularly from 2011. In 2021 this gap is the largest across districts and
  represents in excess of 11,000 people.
 Tewkesbury district sees an increase in employment in the service sector
  and a decline in manufacturing, following national trends. Both sectors
  are lower than the county averages.
 Between 1994 and 2002 the stock of VAT registered businesses grew by
  over 4%, which is significantly above the county level of 0.22% and above
  the national level of 3.1%.
 Tewkesbury district has superior income levels, having the highest
  average income across districts in 2002, and being above county and
  national levels.
 Although income levels are good and rising, they are well short of the
  percentage increase in house prices. The percentage of the population
  unable to buy a house in the lowest quartile of house prices in the district
  is 62.6%. Although this is the lowest of all districts, it is greater than the
  national proportion of 49.9%.
 The average key worker salary is only 63.3% of what is required to
  purchase in the district. This may explains skill shortages in the area.
  Contrary to income levels in general, Tewkesbury district has one of the
  worst averages across districts (following Cotswold and Cheltenham,
  where house prices are generally higher).
 Tewkesbury district has seen a growth in the number of agricultural
  holdings in the district. This is largely due to the decrease in average size
  of holdings as they are broken up to accommodate more economically
  viable types of farming. The rate of growth is larger than that of the
  country as a whole.
 Agricultural labour has decreased in Tewkesbury district, in a similar
  pattern to other districts and across England as a whole. This decrease is
  at a smaller rate than is seen nationally.
 From 1998 to 2003 Tewkesbury district has seen a promising decline in
  unemployment, making it the second lowest across districts. Recent
  figures show that there are currently just over 600 people unemployed in
  the district.




                                  4
2      A Safe, Clean and Cared for Community

Overview: Crime levels are generally very low in Tewkesbury district when compared
to urban districts and the country as a whole, making it a relatively safe community.
There have been small rises, in absolute terms, of violent crimes (partially as a result of
improved reporting) and burglaries among the 0-17 year old population. With an
increase in population and hence an increase in household waste it is important to take
note that Tewkesbury district has had one of the worst recycling rates among districts
and therefore needs to work hard to achieve and maintain a clean environment.

           Safe Communities: Rates of domestic burglary, violent offences, vehicle
            crime and robbery are all significantly lower in Tewkesbury district than
            Gloucestershire as a whole or England and Wales.
           While levels of burglary and vehicle crime in the district are decreasing,
            violent offences and robberies have increased. Rises are not substantial
            in absolute terms, and increases in robberies appear to have stabilised in
            the past year.
           Despite an increase in 2001, crime among 10-17 year olds is decreasing
            in a similar trend to the county.
           Amongst 10-17 year olds, theft, violence and burglary are the most
            numerous of crimes. Theft and violence are both on the decline, but
            burglary has seen a small rise (30 incidents in absolute terms) and
            continues to be above county rates, and the worst among districts.
           Tewkesbury district residents feel safer than residents in other districts
            during daylight hours. They also feel comparatively safe after dark,
            perceptions of safety having increased over the past couple of years.
           Tewkesbury district has had the second poorest recycling rate of all
            districts, and at only 8.7% last year, has a long way to go to reach the
            Government’s target of 26% for this financial year. However, early
            indications show that the Council has gone someway in addressing these
            concerns.


3      Improving Access to Services

Overview: Tewkesbury district is expected to see a substantial increase in its working
population, and hence the demand for transport is also set to rise. Residents are
largely dependent on the car to get to work, although there has been a big rise, in
percentage terms, of residents working from home. Reliance on the car is also evident
for shopping. Meanwhile use of public transport is seen to be dwindling.
There is a very low non-white population in the district, which compared to the county
averages are not disadvantaged.

           It is accepted that employment generates the main transport need. As the
            working age population of Tewkesbury district is predicted to rise by 34%
            between 1991 and 2021, it is evident that this will have a large impact on
            the transport requirements of the region.
           Tewkesbury district has a higher rate of car ownership than the county
            altogether. Only 15% of households do not have a car, compared with
            18.7% for Gloucestershire overall.


                                             5
           The main mode of transport to work, the car, increased by over 11% from
            1991 to 2001, although this is lower than the increase for the county.
           Working at home has more than doubled over the decade to become
            more popular than the use of public transport (now the least utilised mode
            of transport).
           Tewkesbury district has seen the largest percentage decrease in the use
            of the car for work and leisure purposes across districts, falling below
            county levels. However, in contrast it has been increasingly relied on for
            shopping.
           Car journeys to and from school have increased at the primary level.
            However, walking/cycling still proves to be the most popular among both
            primary and secondary aged pupils, despite having declined. Secondary
            school children make more use of bus services, than at the primary level,
            coming from further a field.
           Growths in average daily traffic volumes are high compared to other
            districts and the county, coinciding with growth in the working population
            for the region.
           The numbers and proportion of black and minority ethnic groups (BME)
            are very low in the district. Indicators of housing, health, education and
            employment reveal that BME in this area are better off when compared to
            the county as a whole.


4     Providing Support and Investment in the Community

Overview: Overall projections show that the total population, and similarly the number
of households in the district, will also grow substantially during the next 20 years.
However building completions to accommodate such an increase are running
significantly below the expected level. There is a significant increase in the number of
children and young people in the district, particularly in the 0-15 age group. Meanwhile
there has been a relatively large increase in lone parents, but a decrease in teenage
pregnancies. In comparison the proportion of older people has an even higher rate of
growth in Tewkesbury district, especially in the over 85 population. Tewkesbury District
has seen a growth in the number of pensioners living on their own. Despite this,
referrals to Social Services and the provision of home care are relatively low. However
it is suggested that many workers are making inadequate provision for their retirement,
which in turn could result in more people needing to access public sector resources in
the future. Health levels are generally high in comparison to county and national levels,
although circulatory diseases and accidents have recently risen. Meanwhile, mortality at
birth and in infancy has recently declined to below both national and county levels.

           Tewkesbury district grew by 5,800 between 1991 and 2001 and based on
            current trends, is expected to grow by a staggering 24,443 by 2021.
            Household growth over the period is also steadily upward. Tewkesbury
            district will still remain one of the smaller districts in terms of its population
            in spite of this growth.
           The County Structure Plan, 2nd Review has allocated 9,900 houses to be
            built over the 1991 to 2011 period. So far just over 4,500 have been built
            which is approximately 1,100 below the expected number, 11.5 years
            through the period.


                                              6
 Young people: The increase in the 0-15 population (37.4%) is at odds to
  county trends (-3.8%) and is much higher than the increase nationally
  (+5.1%). This rise will see Tewkesbury district have a higher proportion of
  children aged 0-15 than the county as a whole and all districts by 2021.
 Growth in the16-19 year age group is at a much lower rate than the 0-15
  population at +9.9%. However it is contradictory to patterns in the county
  and nationally, which both see a decline in this age group.
 The number of married couples with dependent children aged 0-15 has
  fallen over the past decade, while the number of cohabiting couples and
  lone parents have both increased.
 Teenage, pregnancy, rates have fallen over the last 4 years are and at a
  lower rate than the county or national levels.
 Despite a growth in young people, overall Tewkesbury district population
  is ageing as the proportion of older people is also growing. The
  population of 65+ will grow by over 9,500 between 2001 and 2021, making
  up 21.2% of the population by 2021. Regardless of this growth,
  Tewkesbury district still has a lower proportion of older people than the
  county and most districts, but it is still higher than the proportion of older
  people nationally.
 Tewkesbury district has seen the largest percentage increase in the
  number of pensioners living on their own across districts. This increase is
  more than 4 times the national rate.
 Tewkesbury district has the lowest proportion of older people helped to
  live at home across districts. Levels of referral of older people to Social
  Services are also at the lowest. However, this is subject to change as a
  survey has shown that 1 in 4 people of working age are making
  inadequate financial provision for retirement.
 Health: Levels of mortality at birth have fluctuated but are currently
  declining lower than the county and national levels. Mortality in infancy
  was higher in 1999 but has also fallen below county and national rates
  from 2000.
 The district has had a variable cancer mortality rate in the past 4 years.
  However, the last 2 years have shown a promising decline, remaining
  below national levels. Circulatory diseases and suicide rates have stayed
  below county and national rates, but have seen a recent upturn in their
  numbers. Deaths by accidents are much more of a concern for
  Tewkesbury district, having rates above that of the county and England
  and Wales. 2002 has also seen this gap widen as Tewkesbury district
  levels have risen.
 General health levels based on the 2001 Census are better than both the
  county and England and Wales. Limiting long term illness and poor
  general health levels are at their lowest in Tewkesbury district, after the
  Cotswold district.
 The overall provision of unpaid care in the district is slightly above the
  county and national levels and 9.5% of the 75+ population is providing
  some unpaid care.




                                  7
SUPPORTING A BUOYANT ECONOMY

School Age Groups

                                    School Age Populations in Tewkesbury
  10000

   8000

   6000

   4000

   2000

         0
                      2001                2006                 2011                2016               2021

    0-3               3400                3400                 3750                4450               5150
    4-10              6400                6550                 6650                7250               8500
    1 -1
     1 6              5900                6000                 6100                6150               6500
    1 9
     7-1              2250                2800                 2700                2850               2850


Source: Research Team, Environment Directorate, Gloucestershire C.C.

                 Tewkesbury School Age Population %'s in Comparison with County
                                     and England & Wales
    10
     8
     6
     4
     2
     0
             Tewkes     Co unty     E&W          Tewkes    Co unty    E&W         Tewkes    Co unty    E&W
                             2001                              2011                            2021

   0-3          4.4          4.5       4.7          4.3        4.0      4.5           5.1       4.2          4.6
   4-10         8.4          8.7       8.9          7.6        7.5      7.9          8.4        7.3          7.9
   1 -1
    1 6         7.7          7.7       7.8          7.0        7.2          7.1      6.4        6.4          6.7
   1 9
    7-1         2.9          3.4       3.6           3.1       3.6      3.9          2.8        3.2          3.4


Source: Research Team, Environment Directorate, Gloucestershire C.C.

            The total school age population of Tewkesbury district will rise from 17,950 to 23,000
             in 2021.
            All age groups see a rise in population from the outset, with the exception of the 0-3
             age group, which remains steady until after 2006.
            The 4-10 age group increases initially, stabilises between 2006 and 2011, before
             continuing to increase to 2021.
            The 11-16 age group gradually increases throughout the period.
            The 17-19 age group increases initially, but dips in 2011, before becoming stable
             from 2016.
            The 0-3 and 4-10 age groups as a proportion of the total population were both lower
             than the county and England and Wales in 2001. However by 2011 they have
             become higher than the county, and by 2021 also higher than England and Wales.
            The 11-16 age group as a proportion is about the same as the county throughout the
             period, dipping slightly in 2011, but lower than England and Wales throughout.
            The 17 –19 age group as a proportion remains lower than the county and England
             and Wales throughout the period.


                                                                 8
                                      2002 Performance at Each Key Stage

       100

           80

           60

           40

           20

            0
                 KS2 Eng 4+           KS2 M aths 4+     KS3 Eng 5+   KS3 M aths 5+        KS3 Sci 5+        KS4 5+A *-C
 Tewkesbury         81.7                  82.0             75.9          76.2                76.6                66.2
 England            75.0                  73.0             66.0          67.0                66.0                51.2


Source: NCER, 2002

           Tewkesbury district scores well above the national level at each Key
            Stage.
           Results are in the top three districts (Cotswold, Tewkesbury and
            Stroud) in the county at each Key Stage. Tewkesbury district scored
            highest in the county for Key Stage 2 Maths 4+.




                                   % of Pupils Eligible for Free School Meals

            30

            25

            20

            15

            10

            5

            0
                           P rimary                   Seco ndary                Special                District as a Who le
  Tewkesbury                 8.4                         6.0                     28.0                          7.4
  Co unty                    9.2                         6.7                     24.5                          8.3


Source: PLASC, 2003

           Tewkesbury district has a lower percentage of pupils eligible for free
            school meals in each category, with the exception of special schools,
            where it is significantly higher.
           The county average is significantly boosted by figures in Gloucester
            and Cheltenham.
           Free school meal eligibility decreases from the primary sector to the
            secondary, which reflects national trends. Eligibility in special schools
            is much higher.



                                                                     9
                    % of Pupils with Statement of Special Educational Needs

       100

          80

          60

          40

          20

          0
                     P rimary          Seco ndary         Special        District as a Who le

  Tewkesbury           1.4                2.2               91.2                 2.8


Source: PLASC, 2003


              Tewkesbury district has the second lowest proportion of
               statemented pupils in both primary and secondary schools
               compared with other districts.
              The percentage of statemented pupils increases from primary to
               secondary schools as pupil needs are identified further.




                                                    10
Adult Education

                     Projection of Tewkesbury Adult Population by Key Age Groups
  40000

  30000

  20000

  10000

          0
                      2001                    2006                   2011                    2016                    2021
    20-24             3250                    4000                  4850                     4700                    4900
    25-54             32250                   32700                 34500                   36700                    37950
    55-64             9400                    10950                  1
                                                                    1 300                    1 850
                                                                                              1                      13750
    65+               13600                   15300                 17450                   19750                    21400



Source: Research Team, Environment Directorate, Gloucestershire C.C.


                              % Key Adult Age Group Comparison with the County
  60

  40

  20

    0
            Tewkes     County       Tewkes     County      Tewkes     County       Tewkes     County        Tewkes     County
                     2001                    2006                   2011                    2016                     2021
  20-24       4.2           5.2       4.9           5.5      5.6            6.1      5.0             5.7      4.9            5.5
  25-54       42.2          41 .8     40.0          39.8     39.5           39.1     39.2            35.3     37.6           36.8
  55-64       12.3           1
                            1 .3      13.4          13.0     13.0           13.2     12.7            15.6     13.6           14.5
  65+         17.8          17.4      18.7          18.0     20.0           19.3     21.1            23.9     21.2           22.2


Source: Research Team, Environment Directorate, Gloucestershire C.C.


             Although the 20-24 year old population increases substantially by
              1650 people (51%) by 2021 (despite a decline in 2016), it continues
              to be lower than the county average throughout the period.
             The 25-54, 55-64 and 65+ age groups all steadily increase between
              2001 and 2021. In the 25-54 age group, Tewkesbury district has a
              higher percentage than the county average.
             The 55-64 and 65+ age groups have a higher percentage than the
              county average in 2001, but by 2016 they have become lower than
              the county average.




                                                                      11
Basic Skills

                                             % Basic Skills

           25

           20

           15

           10

               5

               0
                   lo w & v. lo w literacy          Lo w numeracy   V. lo w numeracy
   Tewkesbury               12.3                         19.4             10.0
   Natio nal                15.0                         21.0             12.0


Source: Basic Skills Agency, 2001


          Average levels of low literacy and numeracy are below the national
           level. Comparatively Tewkesbury district has one of the lowest levels
           of low & very low literacy among districts.




                                                        12
Qualifications

                                     % People With No Qualifications

             80

             60

             40

             20

             0
                    20-24                25-44         45-64           65-74          16-74
   Tewkesbury        9.8                  9.7           31.2           51.9           23.6
   Co unty          10.6                 12.0           32.9           54.7           24.9
   E&W              12.6                 19.8           51.4           72.3           29.1


Source: 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics


                  % Achievement of Qualifications Amongst 20-74 Year Olds

             50

             40

             30

             20

             10

              0
                           Tewkesbury                  Co unty                 E&W

   Lo wer Level               46.8                      45.5                   41.9
   Higher Level               22.4                      22.4                   21.1


Source: 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics

             Overall the percentage of people of working age lacking
              qualifications in Tewkesbury district is lower than the county as a
              whole and significantly lower than the national level. The 25-44
              year old age group has the smallest percentage of people with no
              qualifications across the districts.
             In lower level qualifications (up to and including A levels)
              Tewkesbury district has one of the highest performances across
              districts and exceeds both the county and national averages.
             However, at higher level qualifications (degree or equivalent and
              above) Tewkesbury is only on a par with the county in terms of its
              performance, but still exceeds the national average.




                                                       13
Labour Supply and Demand

                                             Labour Supply and Demand

 50,000

 40,000

 30,000

 20,000

 10,000

      0
                         1991                      2001                           2011                  2015
 Supply                  36,106                   39,712                       44,279                  46,072
 Demand                  31,296                   34,513                       34,528                  34,712


Sources: Labour supply – Research Team, GCC, 2003; Labour Demand- GLMIU, 2003
            The chart shows a surplus of economically active people in
             Tewkesbury district than there are jobs, particularly in 2011 and
             2015.
            With an increase of 27.6% in supply, Tewkesbury district has the
             highest increase of all districts. Meanwhile the number of jobs
             (demand) only increases by 10.9% for the same period. This
             shortfall is exacerbated by the projected increase of the working
             population, as a result of high net migration for this area. With a
             surplus in supply it is anticipated that workers will commute to areas
             where there is a surplus in demand, such as Gloucester City and
             Cheltenham.


                                       Relative Change in Industrial Sector

             80

             60

             40

             20

              0
                  1991                2015           1991               2015             1991            2015
                                  P rimary                       M anufacturing                      Services
   Tewkesbury               0                 2             55                    26            45              72
   Co unty                  5                 4             30                    20            64              76



Source: GLMIU, 2003

            Tewkesbury district clearly follows the county and national trend of
             an increasing proportion of jobs in the service sector, while remaining
             below the county level.
            There is a complementary decline in manufacturing, but Tewkesbury
             district continues to have a greater proportion than the county level.
            Between 1991 and 2015 there is a negligible increase in the primary
             sector, which is contrary to county trends.


                                                                     14
                                 Stock of VAT Registered Businesses

        2600

        2550
        2500

        2450
        2400

        2350
        2300
                          1994                        1998              2002
  Tewkesbury              2465                        2420              2570


Source: VAT registration/de-registrations by Industry, NOMIS, 2003


            Despite a dip in 1998, the stock of registered businesses has grown
             by 4.3% during the period. This is a greater rate than the county’s at
             0.22% and nationally at 3.14%.




                                Average Full Time Income per Worker

    £25,000
    £20,000
    £15,000
    £10,000
     £5,000
             £0
                       1999                  2000              2001            2002
   Tewkesbury         £18,398               £18,936          £20,302       £22,035
   Co unty            £16,740               £17,575           £18,890      £19,327
   E&W                £17,688               £18,401             9,41
                                                              £1 1         £20,236



Source: New Earning Survey 2002, NOMIS, 2003

            The average full time income for residents of Tewkesbury district is
             above both that of the county and England and Wales.
            Income levels have increased significantly throughout the period.
             Tewkesbury district has the second highest percentage increase and
             the highest average income across districts in 2002.




                                                      15
Affordable Housing


                      Average Annual Income to Average House Price Ratio
           10

           8

           6

           4

           2

           0
                            1999          2000                2001           2002
 Tewkesbury                 5.2               5.9              6.1            6.8
 Co unty                    5.7               6.4              6.7            7.7
 So uth West                5.8               6.5              6.9            8.1


Source: New Earnings Survey, 2002 and Land Registry 2003

           The ratio in Tewkesbury district is lower than both the county as a
            whole and the South West. This difference has become most
            marked in 2002.
           The above inflation increases in house prices have led to the ratio
            increasing over the last 4 years.




                % Households Unable to Purchase in the Lowest Quartile of House
                                            Prices
   80

   60

   40

   20

    0
                  Tewkesbury          Co unty            So uth West        E&W
  2003               62.6              70.6                 67.9             49.9



Source: “Can work- Cant buy”, Steve Wilcox, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2003

           Tewkesbury district has one of the lowest percentages of households
            unable to buy a house in the lowest quartile of house prices when
            compared among districts. Despite this percentage being lower than
            the county, the percentage is well above that of England and Wales.




                                                    16
             Income of Key Workers as a % of Income Required to Purchase -
                                    Average Case

    80
    75

    70
    65

    60
    55
                 Tewkesbury               So uth West                E&W
   2003             63.3                     67.0                     75.0



Source: “Can work- Cant buy”, Steve Wilcox, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2003

         The inability of key workers to purchase in an area is increasingly being
          seen as a cause of skill shortages. This chart shows the average case
          based on 4 key worker incomes (nurse, police, teacher and social
          worker).
         Tewkesbury district falls substantially short of the averages for the
          South West and England and Wales as a whole, making it more difficult
          for key workers to purchase in this area.




                                                17
Agriculture


                    % Change in the Number of Agricultural Holdings

         30
         25
         20
         15
         10
          5
          0
                    Tewkesbury                Co unty                  England
  1990-2002            22.1                    25.7                      10.9


Source: Census of Agriculture, DEFRA 2003



                    % Change in Average Size of Agricultural Holding

          0

          -5

         -10

         -15

         -20

         -25
                    Tewkesbury                Co unty                  England
   1990-2002           -21.4                   -20.9                    -14.1



Source: Census of Agriculture, DEFRA 2003


          Between 1990 and 2002 Tewkesbury district has seen a slightly lower
           percentage growth in the number of agricultural holdings than the
           county, but a much higher growth than in England as a whole.
          While there is a growth in the number of agricultural holdings there is
           a decline in the actual size of these holdings in Tewkesbury district.
           This pattern suggests a break up of larger agricultural units into
           smaller ones, as traditional farming has become more uneconomic
           and a change to uses like livery stables grow.




                                               18
                       % Change in Labour on Agricultural Holdings

          0

          -5

         -10

         -15

         -20
                    Tewkesbury                 Co unty               England
   1990-2002           -8.7                     -4.3                   -14.7


Source: Census of Agriculture, DEFRA, 2003


                         % Change in Labour per Agricultural Unit

         -21

         -22

         -23

         -24

         -25

         -26
                    Tewkesbury                 Co unty               England

   1990-2002           -25.2                    -23.9                 -23.0



Source: Census of Agriculture, DEFRA, 2003


          Between 1990 and 2002, Tewkesbury district has had a decrease in
           labour on holdings. This is higher than that of the county, but not as
           high as across England as a whole.
          Tewkesbury district has seen a significant growth in the number of
           agricultural holdings while labour on these holdings during the same
           period has declined. It is therefore apparent that labour per
           agricultural unit will also have declined. The above chart shows that
           this decline is higher than both the county and England.




                                                19
Unemployment

                                      Rates of Unemployment
             6

             4

             2

             0
                   1998       1999           2000          2001      2002      2003
                   A ug-98    A ug-99       A ug-00        A ug-01   A ug-02   A ug-03

  Tewkesbury         2.3        2.1           1.9            1.8       1.7       1.4
  Co unty            2.9        2.7           2.4           2.2        2.2       1.8
  Great B ritain     4.7        4.3           3.7           3.2        3.1       2.6


Source: NOMIS, 2003


           Tewkesbury district has the second lowest unemployment level in
            absolute terms of all districts. It also saw the third largest decrease in
            unemployment between 1998 and 2003 across districts. In August
            2003, unemployment rates represent approximately 620 people.
           The chart shows that Tewkesbury district has had a lower rate of
            unemployment than both the county and Great Britain throughout the
            period, declining at a comparable rate.




                                                      20
A SAFE, CLEAN & CARED FOR COMMUNITY

Promote Safer Communities: Key Crimes

                               Domestic Burglaries per 1,000 Households
             25
             20
             15
             10
              5
              0
                     1999/2000              2000/2001         2001/2002   2002/2003

   Tewkesbury          13.31                  9.92              12.87       10.06
   Co unty             18.05                   3.1
                                              1 0               14.20        4.1
                                                                            1 5
   E&W                 17.89                  18.40             19.40       20.20


Source: Crime in England and Wales, 2002/03, Home Office 2003


            Domestic burglaries in Tewkesbury district have been below the
             county and national averages throughout the period.
            Unlike the national trend, Tewkesbury district has seen a fall in
             burglaries overall, despite a slight upturn in 2001/2002. In 2002/2003
             Tewkesbury district had the second lowest rate across districts (after
             the Forest of Dean).



                                 Violent Offences per 1,000 Population
             20

             15

             10

             5

             0
                     1999/2000              2000/2001         2001/2002   2002/2003

   Tewkesbury           4.11                  5.83              5.48         9.95
   Co unty             8.66                   10.24              9.71       15.31
   E&W                 13.34                  13.90             15.40       19.00



Source: Crime in England and Wales, 2002/03, Home Office 2003

            Tewkesbury district is also significantly below both the county and
             national rates for violent crime. In 2002/2003 it also has the second
             lowest rate across districts.
            Despite this, the district has seen overall an upward trend in this type
             of crime, particularly in the last year. This pattern corresponds with
             the rise in both the county and nationally. It is important to bear in
             mind that figures within Gloucestershire may have increased due to
             the adoption of recording standards (NCRS) in April 2002.


                                                        21
                                 Vehicle Crimes per 1,000 Population
             25
             20
             15
             10
             5
             0
                     1999/2000             2000/2001         2001/2002   2002/2003

   Tewkesbury          12.40                  1
                                             1 .85              1
                                                               1 .55       9.32
   Co unty             18.31                  5.1
                                             1 0               14.40       13.68
   E&W                 19.90                 18.40             18.60       18.70


Source: Crime in England and Wales, 2003/03, Home Office 2003

            Tewkesbury district has a lower rate of vehicle crime than the county
             and England and Wales. For 2002/2003 vehicle crime was the
             second lowest after the Cotswold district.
            Over the period the rate has decreased, following the trend in the
             county as a whole.




                                   Robberies per 1,000 Population

              3

              2

              1

              0
                     1999/2000             2000/2001         2001/2002   2002/2003

   Tewkesbury           0.16                 0.24              0.28        0.28
   Co unty             0.52                  0.60              0.90        0.92
   E&W                  1.60                 1.80              2.30        2.04


Source: Crime in England and Wales, 2003/03, Home Office 2003

            The rate of robberies is increasingly lower than the county, and is
             negligible when compared with England and Wales as a whole.
            Rates in Tewkesbury district are however, higher than they were in
             1999/2000, but the increase has been relatively marginal and has
             petered out across the period.




                                                       22
                              Crimes per 1,000 of 10-17 Year Old Population

          100
             80
             60
             40
             20
              0
                                  2000                          2001                             2002
   Tewkesbury                     57.0                             61.0                           48.3
   Co unty                        77.9                             70.8                           65.1


Source: Crime Analyst, Gloucestershire Community Safety Partnership, 2003


            Tewkesbury district has remained below the county throughout the
             period, in terms of its crime rate among the 10-17 year old population.
            The district also has the third lowest rate in 2002 across districts,
             despite the increase in 2001.




                                    Detected Crimes per 1,000 in Tewkesbury
                                          Where Offenders Aged 10-17
    30

    20

    10

     0
                         Criminal                         Other                       Sexual
             B urglary                   Drugs   Fraud                    Ro bbery              Theft    Vio lence
                         Damage                          No tifiable                 Offences
   2000           8.7      12.6           2.0     1.2        0.7            0.5         1.1     20.3       10.3
   2001           6.5      1 .6
                            1             1.8     0.6        1.9            0.8        0.4      19.5       17.8
   2002        12.2        8.2            1.8     1.5        1.1            1.4        0.8       9.3       12.0


Source: Crime Analyst, Gloucestershire Community Safety Partnership, 2003


            Theft, criminal damage, violence and burglary are the most numerous
             crimes in the district among young offenders aged 10-17. Theft and
             criminal damage having decreased between 2000 and 2002 are less
             of a concern.
            Burglary appears to have increased significantly over the last year,
             but in absolute terms this increase only represents an extra 30
             crimes. As previous charts have shown, criminal activity in
             Tewkesbury district is small in comparison to England and Wales as a
             whole.




                                                               23
                               Perception of Safety in Daylight and at Night
             100
             75
             50
             25
              0
                   2001                    2003                    2001             2003
                                       Daylight                                   Night
             Source: Gloucestershire Community Safety Partnerships, Perceptions of
   Tewkesbury               93.31                 93.09                   47.24                     51.09
   Co unty                  90.88                 89.00                   48.30                     45.00
   England                                                                66.00


Source: Gloucestershire Community Safety Partnership, Crime Surveys, 2001and 2003

            In 2003, Tewkesbury district has the highest feeling of safety across
             all districts during daylight hours, and the second highest after dark
             (Cotswold district did not undertake the 2003 survey). When
             compared to the county as a whole, Tewkesbury district residents
             also feel safer in 2003.
            Perceptions of safety have declined only slightly during daylight, but
             have improved at night between 2001 and 2003.



Recycling

                                       % Household Waste Recycled

      50

      40

      30

      20

      10

         0
                          Tewkesbury                      HRC Sites                       Co unty
  2002-03                    8.7                            39.7                           16.7


Source: Waste Management Team, Env. Dir. 2003

            Tewkesbury district has had the second poorest recycling rate of all
             the districts in the county, and was only marginally better than
             Gloucester City. It was also significantly lower than the county
             average last year, which will need to improve if it is to reach 26% this
             financial year to meet government targets. Provisional figures for Oct
             2003 suggest that there has been a marked improvement recently,
             with recycling being reported at 14.5% (but still below last years
             county average).


                                                              24
IMPROVING ACCESS TO SERVICES

Meeting Local Transport Needs Effectively

                                 Population of Working Age 1991-2021

     75,000

     60,000

     45,000

     30,000

     15,000

             0
                      1991                   2001              2011            2021
  Tewkesbury         44,993                 48,092            54,332       60,436



Source: 1991–2001 revised mid year estimates, ONS 2003

            The main demand for transport is generated by employment,
             consequently working age population change is a key factor in looking
             at change in demand.
            The working age population in Tewkesbury district is expected to
             increase substantially between 1991 and 2021 by 34%. Although this
             is the highest proportional increase across districts, Tewkesbury
             district will still only have an average working population in absolute
             terms among districts.




                                          % Car Ownership
             60


             40


             20


             0
                        No Cars                      1Car              2+ Cars
   Tewkesbury                 15.0                    44.6              40.3
   Co unty                    18.7                    43.8              37.5
   E&W                        26.8                    43.8              29.4


Source: 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics

            Tewkesbury district has a higher proportion of car ownership than the
             county, and England and Wales, particularly among households with
             2+ cars. It also has fewer households with no cars compared to the
             county and national averages.



                                                      25
                                         Main Mode of Transport to Work

 30000


 20000


 10000


     0
                   Wo rk at Ho me                P ublic Transpo rt              Car o r Van                    B icycle/Fo o t
   1991                   1890                         3570                        23900                            4820
   2001                   4107                         2486                        26669                             4841



Source: 1991 and 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics
           Like all districts, Tewkesbury district has seen a rise in both car
            journeys to work (11.6%) and working from home (117%) between
            1991 and 2001. At the same time the use of public transport has
            decreased by about 30%, in a similar pattern to the county as a
            whole.
           In 2001, 70% of the working population of Tewkesbury district used
            a car or van to get to work, while only 6.5% (the least) used public
            transport.



                 % Use of Car as the Main Mode of Transport for Different Purposes

            85


            80


            75


            70
                  Wo rk             Leisure              Sho pping       Wo rk                 Leisure             Sho pping
                                          2000                                                       2002
  Tewkesbury              79.3            79.2                   81.2            76.7                74.4                   82.4
  Co unty                 79.0                77.1               74.3            79.4                    79.1               77.2



Source: GCC Household Survey, 2003


           Tewkesbury district has seen a decrease in the use of the car for
            work and leisure purposes (the highest percentage across districts),
            but an increase in its use for shopping. This pattern has seen the
            use of the car fall below the county averages for work and leisure,
            while staying above the county average for shopping.




                                                                        26
                      % Main Mode of Transport for Children Travelling to School
    80

    60

    40

    20

     0
          P rimary          Seco ndary         P rimary         Seco ndary   P rimary               Seco ndary
                          Car                                 B us                             Walk/Cycle

   2000              31            30                     7            22               61                  48
   2001              30             18                    3            35               66                  46
   2002              43            23                     2            34               55                  43


Source: GCC Transport Planning Unit

          Tewkesbury district has seen a rise in the use of the car for taking
           primary age children to school, although it still has the second lowest
           proportion across all districts.
          Walking/cycling remains the most popular mode of transport for both
           primary and secondary age children despite a decline in numbers.
          The bus is more popular with secondary school children as it is likely
           that they have further to travel than primary school children.




                                Growth in Average Daily Traffic Volumes

           8



           7



           6


           5
                                  Tewkesbury                                        Co unty
   1997-2002                             7.3                                             6.2


Source: Glos. Local Transport Plan, 3rd Annual Progress Report

          Growths in average daily traffic volumes are above that of the county
           and are the third highest across all districts (after Cotswold and the
           Forest of Dean). This coincides with the growth in the working
           population of this district.




                                                                27
Black and Minority Ethnic Groups


                    Characteristics of the Tewkesbury Black and Minority Ethnic
                                             Population

            80
            60
            40
            20
            0
                                                           Lack o f                                             Limiting Lo ng
                 B lack & M ino rity   Unemp A mo ngst                          Higher Level   Owner Occupied
                                                         Qualificatio ns                                         Term Illness

  Tewkesbury             1.4                 2.6              22.1                  31.7            64.9             10.2
  Co unty                2.8                 4.7              27.0                  25.5            63.8              1
                                                                                                                     1 .6
  E&W                    8.7                 6.0



Source: 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics


            Tewkesbury district has a very low level of non- white population,
             numbering under 1,100.
            The level of unemployment amongst the non-white population is lower
             than that at a county or national level, but is higher than the white
             population in Tewkesbury district (2.0%).
            Lack of qualifications amongst the non-white population in
             Tewkesbury district are below the county level and not that dissimilar
             to the white population.
            The non-white population attainment of higher-level qualifications in
             Tewkesbury district is greater than the county and quite high in
             comparison to the white population.
            Tewkesbury district non-white population has a higher than county
             average for owner occupation.
            Tewkesbury district has a fairly low level of limiting long-term illness
             (LLTI) among the non-white population, which is also lower than the
             county average. Levels of LLTI are higher for the white population in
             Tewkesbury district.




                                                                           28
PROVIDING SUPPORT AND INVESTMENT IN THE COMMUNITY

Managing and Enhancing the Gloucestershire Environment

                         Population Change in Tewkesbury

   120,000

   100,000

    80,000

    60,000

    40,000

    20,000

          0
                1991     1996      2001      2006      2011      2016      2021
  Tewkesbury   70,700   74,100    76,500    81,740     87,271    92,287   100,943



Source: ONS Mid Year Estimates, 2001 and Research team, Env Dir., 2003


                                 Household Growth

     50,000

     40,000

     30,000

     20,000

     10,000

          0
                1991     1996      2001      2006       2011     2016      2021
  Tewkesbury   28,152   29,943     31,668   33,999     36,205    38,249    40,043


Source: Research Team, Env. Directorate, 2003


        The district’s population grew by 5,800 between 1991 and 2001. If
         the current trend continues Tewkesbury district is expected to grow by
         a further 24,443. This suggests substantial growth for this district, with
         the most growth occurring between 2016 and 2021 at 9.4%.
         Tewkesbury district was the smallest district in terms of population in
         1991. By 2021 it will be the third smallest.
        Household growth increases steadily throughout the period, but the
         rate of increase is somewhat smaller between 2016 and 2021 at
         4.7%.
        In the 12 months to June 2001, Tewkesbury district had a net growth
         due to migration of over 5,000, which was the second highest across
         the districts.
        NB The projection is trend based and does not take account of
         Structure Plan housing targets.



                                             29
              Building Completions 1991-2002 Against 2011 Plan Allocation

    12000


     9000


     6000


     3000


         0
                            B uilt                             A llo catio n
 Tewkesbury                 4530                                  9900



Source: Housing Monitor, Environment Directorate, GCC, 2003

       House building completions in Tewkesbury district are running at
        approximately 1,100 below the expected level at the end of 2002,
        after 11.5 years of the Structure plan period.




                                               30
Young People

                   Change in the Number of 0-15 Year Old Population

      25000

      20000

      15000

      10000

        5000

           0
                    1991             2001              2011             2021
   Tewkesbury        391
                    1 7              14809             15501             91 7
                                                                        1 1



Source:1991–2001 Mid Year Estimates, ONS. Projection–GCC Env. Research

         Tewkesbury district sees the highest percentage change in this age
          group across districts, with an increase of 5,200 (37.4%). This
          change is immensely greater than the increase nationally (5.1%).
          The district is also at odds to the trend at a county level, which is
          expected to fall by 3.8%, as a result of significant declines in other
          districts.




                  Change in the Number of 16-19 Year Old Population

        4000


        3500


        3000


        2500


        2000
                    1991             2001              2011            2021

  Tewkesbury        3512             3170              3708            3861



Source:1991–2001 Mid Year Estimates, ONS. Projection–GCC Env. Research


         Despite a decrease in 2001, Tewkesbury district increases by 349
          (9.9%) across the period, while both the county and England and
          Wales show a decline overall, by 8.1% and 6.2% respectively.




                                              31
                                     Families With Dependent Children (0-15)

         8000

         6000

         4000

         2000

             0
                 1991                2001             1991             2001              1991               2001
                   M arried co uples with dependent     Co hab co uples with dependent   Lo ne parents with dependent children
                                children                           children
   Tewkesbury           6510                6188             500              930               1 0
                                                                                                 01                   1533



Source: 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics

            The number of married couples with dependent children decreased
             over the decade accompanied by a complementary increase in
             cohabiting couples and lone parents.
            However married couples with dependents at –4.9%, decreased by
             significantly less than the national rate (-14.1%) and the county rate (-
             8%).
            The increase in cohabiting couples with dependents at 86%, was the
             lowest in the county (the overall County rate being 113.7%).
            Lone parents increased by 51.8%, which is the second highest in the
             county. This increase was substantially more than the county and
             England and Wales, at 35.9% and 25.8% respectively.


              % of Children Looked After in Residential or Foster Placements Who
                                        Were Fostered

     120

     100
      80
      60
      40
      20
         0
                          Tewkesbury                               Glo s                              Eng Co unties
   2002-03                     100                                 85.3                                   82.2


Source: PAF B7, Gloucestershire Social Services

            Gloucestershire’s score has risen consistently over the last 3 years,
             as a result of placing more children with families.
            All children looked after in Tewkesbury district are placed in family
             placements, although it is important to bear in mind that numbers of
             looked after children in this district are relatively small.



                                                                     32
                      Conceptions Among Females Aged Less Than 18
             60


             40



             20


             0
                        2000                   2001                  2002
   Tewkesbury            32.2                  32.6                   31.2
   Co unty               40.4                  38.7                  36.2
   E&W                   46.4                  46.0                   44.1


Source: Public Health Compendium of Clinical and Health Indicators, 2003

             Conception rates in Tewkesbury district are at a significantly lower
              level than the county and England and Wales throughout the period.
              2002 has seen a further decline in these rates.




                                               33
Older People

                              Population Aged 65 and Over

      25000

      20000

      15000

      10000

         5000

            0
                     1991             2001             2011              2021
   Tewkesbury         1 1
                     1 81             1 2
                                       361             17438            21390



Source: ONS Mid year estimates 2001 and Research Team, Env. Dir. 2003

          Tewkesbury district population of 65+ is projected to dramatically
           increase by over 9,500 up to 2021 from the 1991 level, an increase of
           81.1%. This is far in excess of the county and England and Wales
           which are projected at a 46.3% and 34.3% increase.
          By 2021 Tewkesbury district will still have the second lowest numbers
           in this age group, but comparatively the differences between districts
           will be far less marked than they were in 1991.




                              Population Aged 75 and Over

      12000

      10000

         8000

         6000

         4000

         2000

           0
                     1991             2001             2011              2021
  Tewkesbury         5006             6641             8437             10638



Source: ONS Mid year estimates 2001 and Research Team, Env. Dir. 2003


          The population of 75+ is projected to more than double between 1991
           and 2021 in Tewkesbury district. This is by far the biggest increase
           across districts, and is much higher than the projections for the county
           (57.1%) and nationally (40.8%).

                                              34
                               Population Aged 85 and Over

        4000


        3000


        2000


        1000


          0
                   1991                 2001             2011               2021
  Tewkesbury        01
                   1 3                  1709             2907               3463



Source: ONS Mid year estimates 2001 and Research Team, Env. Dir. 2003


         This age group follows the same pattern of growth as the previous
          older age groups but at a greater rate (241.9%). Again, this is by far
          the biggest increase across districts, and is much higher than the
          projections for the county (134%) and nationally (81.9%).
         Despite these large-scale increases in population across the 65+, 75+
          and particularly 85+ age groups, Tewkesbury district will still not have
          higher proportions of these age groups than other districts. By 2021
          Tewkesbury district will have similar proportions of these age groups
          as the county as a whole.



                          Number of Pensioners Living on Their Own

        6000

        5000

        4000

        3000

        2000

        1000

           0
                                1991                                 2001

   Tewkesbury                   3976                                 4779



Source: 1991 and 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics

         The number of pensioners living on their own (excluding communal
          establishments) has increased by just over 800 in the last decade.
          This increase (20.2%) is the largest increase seen across districts in
          percentage terms. It is much higher than both the county (11.5%)
          and the national (4.7%) levels.


                                                 35
                Older People (Aged 65 and Over) Helped to Live at Home per 1000
                                 Population Aged 65 and Over

         80

         60

         40

         20

         0
                       Tewkesbury                 Co unty                     Eng. Co unties
   2002-03                29.3                     54.0                            73.6


Source: BVPI 54, PAF C32, Gloucestershire Social Services


             Tewkesbury district, as the lowest scoring district, is well below the
              county and national figures for helping older people to live at home.
             It is believed that performance on this indicator is inflated at the
              national level, as a result of authorities keeping client cases open that
              are no longer in receipt of services.




              Referrals to Social Services of People Aged Over 60 as a % of Over 60
                                            Population

   22

   21

   20

   19

   18
                            Tewkesbury                              Co unty
  2000                           19.38                               21.38



Source: MAIDeN, 2003

             3320 adults aged 60, living in the Tewkesbury district, were referred
              to Social Services in 2000. As a percentage of the over 60
              population this was the smallest proportion among districts and was
              lower than the county as a whole.




                                                    36
                  Potential Retirement Provision Amongst Older People

          27


          26


          25


          24


          23
                           Tewkesbury                          Co unty
  % pro visio n              24.97                              25.67



Source MAIDeN, 2003


          This measures the number of people of working age who may not
           have made sufficient financial provision for retirement. It is based on
           a sample survey and may have a subjective element. However it
           shows the worrying prospect that approximately 1in 4 pensioners
           currently of working age may need aid of some sort in retirement.
           The Tewkesbury district is marginally worse than the county as a
           whole, and is the second lowest district (after Cotswold).




                                               37
Health

                               Rates of Still Births per 1000 Births (QOL 11)
             8


             6


             4


             2


             0
                      1999                    2000                  2001        2002
  Tewkesbury           1.2                     5.9                               4.1
  Co unty              3.7                     5.6                   4.6        5.2
  E&W                  5.3                     5.3                   5.2        5.2



Source: Public Health Compendium of Clinical and Health Indicators, 2003


                             Mortality in Infancy (<1) per 1000 Live Births
             8

             6


             4

             2


             0
                      1999                     2000                  2001       2002
   Tewkesbury          6.2                     3.5                              3.7
   Co unty             5.7                      5.1                  3.8        4.5
   E&W                 5.6                     5.8                   5.6        5.6



Source: Public Health Compendium of Clinical and Health Indicators, 2003

            Rates of still births in Tewkesbury district are very low in 1999
             compared with the county and England and Wales. However, in 2000
             the rates have dramatically increased to be higher than the county
             and national rates. In 2002, the rates have decreased and are lower
             than the county and England and Wales.
            Mortality in infancy was higher in 1999, but had declined to be below
             the county and England and Wales in 2000 and 2002.
            Still birth rates and mortality in infancy for 2001 are not available.




                                                         38
                  QOL 10A: All Cancers per 100,000 in Under 75 Population
        150



        100


            50



            0
                      1999              2000               2001              2002
  Tewkesbury         123.64             129.56            128.23             109.33
  Co unty             1
                     1 8.76             120.48            1 8.37
                                                           1                  21
                                                                             1 .93
  E&W                137.23             133.76            130.90              29.1
                                                                             1 2



Source: Public Health Compendium of Clinical and Health Indicators, 2003

           Mortality due to cancer has fluctuated in Tewkesbury district between
            1999 and 2002, seeing a significant decline in 2002.
           Tewkesbury district, despite being above the county figures
            throughout the period, does remain below the national figure
            throughout.




            QOL 10B: All Circulatory Diseases per 100,000 in Under 75 Population

        150


        100


            50


            0
                      1999              2000               2001              2002
  Tewkesbury         104.43             96.30             80.50              92.15
  Co unty             1
                     1 3.72             107.99            100.84             98.46
  E&W                134.66             127.90            1 .1
                                                           21 4               1
                                                                             1 5.96



Source: Public Health Compendium of Clinical and Health Indicators, 2003

           Tewkesbury district has a significantly lower rate than the county as a
            whole, and England and Wales during the entire period.
           The rate for Tewkesbury district has fallen off in the first three years,
            but has increased again in 2002.




                                                  39
             QOL 10C: Suicide and Undetermined Injury per 100,000 People - All
                                         Ages
            12
            10
            8
            6
            4
            2
            0
                       1999             2000              2001                     2002
  Tewkesbury           4.91             4.62              6.79                     6.41
  Co unty              8.28             8.82              9.87                     9.39
  E&W                  9.23             9.40              9.50                     9.46



Source: Public Health Compendium of Clinical and Health Indicators, 2003

           Between 1999 and 2000 suicide rates fell, but they rose substantially
            in 2001 to higher than the 1999 level, before declining again
            fractionally in 2002.
           Despite the fairly recent upturn in rates, in a similar pattern to the
            county, the rates have remained well below the county and national
            levels.




                    QOL 10D: All Accidents per 100,000 People - All Ages

   25

   20

   15

   10

    5

    0
                   Tewkesbury                  Co unty                     E&W
  2001                16.75                     15.37                      16.54
  2002               20.09                      14.91                      16.25


Source: Public Health Compendium of Clinical and Health Indicators, 2003

           Tewkesbury district has the highest levels of all the districts and is
            considerably higher than the county and England and Wales,
            especially in 2002.
           It is also cause for concern that the most recent year shows a marked
            increase in these levels, which contradict the patterns of both the
            county as a whole and the national picture.




                                                    40
                                  General Health in Tewkesbury

             20

             15

             10

             5

             0
                        Lo ng Term Limiting Illness                 P o o r General Health
   Tewkesbury                      15.5                                      7.0
   Co unty                         16.1                                      7.6
   E&W                             18.2                                      9.2


Source: 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics


            These Census results show the generally higher levels of health in
             Tewkesbury district. However, they are self-reported measures and
             may not always have been independently diagnosed.
            Poor general health is new to the 2001 Census. It is below county
             and national levels.




                                          Levels of Unpaid Care

            12

             9

             6

             3

             0
                             Unpaid Care                          Unpaid Care 50+ Ho urs
  Tewkesbury                      10.2                                      1.7
  Co unty                         9.9                                       1.7
  E&W                             10.0                                      2.1


Source: 2001 Census, Office of National Statistics

       Overall levels of unpaid care are slightly higher in Tewkesbury
        district than in the county and England and Wales.
     It is of concern that 9.5% (county 9.3%) of people over 75 are
        providing unpaid care in Tewkesbury district . This is the second
        highest across districts. 4.6% of people aged over 75 provide 20 or
        more hours of care per week.
     People providing extensive periods of care (50 or more hours)
        equate to the same level as Gloucestershire, but less than England
D: Ethnicity Wales.
        and



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