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					Opening
  and
Welcome

 Lee Gillam
University of
   Surrey
                 Welcome
 Attendees and presenters
 Workshop context
    – NAMIC
    – ACE/GIDA
    – FIONA
   Goal: FP6 IP (and general wealth)
                          Remarks
   You can make a lot of money from the stock market; you can lose a lot
    of money also
   You can lose money in a very short time but it takes a long time to
    make money
   Just because a stock goes down, doesn’t mean it can’t go lower
   Stock market not really a gamble if you pick good companies you
    think will do well, not just because of the stock price
   The long-term returns from stocks are both relatively predictable and
    also far superior to the long-term returns from bonds
                 Winners/losers
   Microsoft
    –   Went public in 1986 – March 86, 19c a share
    –   Sept 1989 – just under $1 a share
    –   April 1995 - $10 a share
    –   Dec 1996 - $20 a share
    –   Feb 1998 - $40 a share
    –   Peak Dec 1999 - $119.94 a share
    –   Currently $51 a share
                Winners/losers
   Microsoft
    – Hardware Wars – Dell, HP, Compaq, IBM
    – Microsoft sold what ran on these boxes – did not care
      about hardware costs
    – Lower prices of hardware – consumer demand up =
      more sales of Windows
    – Microsoft makes more profits
    – Petrol companies don’t care how much cars cost, as
      long as they use lots of fuel!
                   Winners/losers
   Marconi (Caveat Emptor!)             Reuters – ‘Bad News?’
    – June 1987, £1.99 per share          –   Jan 1986, 94.5p
    – May 1988, £1.16 per share           –   Feb 2000, £14.02
    – July 1989, £2.17 per share          –   July 2002, £2.80
    – December 1990, £1.37                –   Lost 80% of value in just over
    – August 1993, £2.93                      2 years
    – December 1999, £10.90 per
      share                              Thorntons – Sweet!!
    – August 2000, £12.20                 – Feb 2000, £1.23
    – July 2002, 3.1p a share             – July 2002, £1.08
    – Lost 99.75% of value in these       – ‘Comforting’ to know?
      last 2 years
                Winners/losers
   1998 – S&P500 up 28%. 50 biggest up 40%, other 450
    hardly moved
   Late 1990s Intel, Cisco and a few others dominated
    NASDAQ
   $100,000 in S&P500 on July 1 1994, fully invested, up to
    $341,722. Out of market for 30 days of biggest gains, only
    $153,792
   $500000 in long term bonds paying 7%, income $35000.
    Inflation rate of 5%, buying power halved in 10 years, and
    two-thirds in 15 years. Stocks should give 11% return, 3%
    dividend, 8% growth in dividends and stock prices.
               1990’s winners
Company                        $10,000 at end 1989 = (end
                               1999)
Dell                           $8.9M
Microsoft                      $960,000
Intel                          $372,000
Harley Davidson                $251,000
Gap                            $232,000
       10% compounded interest for 10 years = $26000
     Sources of Information
 One up on Wall Street: Peter Lynch
 Beating the Street: Peter Lynch
 Everyone’s guide to online stock investing:
  Alexander Davidson
 Yahoo Finance
                                Schedule
   0915 - 0930: Opening and Welcome Lee Gillam: University of Surrey
   0930 - 0950: Events and the Causes of Events: Khurshid Ahmad, University of Surrey
   0950 - 1010: Automatic Analysis of Corporate Financial Disclosures: Darina M.
    Slattery, Richard F.E. Sutcliffe, Eamonn J. Walsh: University of Limerick and University
    College Dublin
   1010 - 1030: A Financial News Summarisation System based on Lexical Cohesion:
    Paulo Cesar Fernandes de Oliveira, Khurshid Ahmad, Lee Gillam: University of Surrey
   1030 - 1100: Break
   1100 - 1120: Processing the language of predicting and forecasting in an Italian
    corpus of economic reports: Maria Teresa Musacchio, University of Trieste
   1120 - 1140: Economic News and Stock Market Correlation: A Study of the UK
    Market:Lee Gillam, Khurshid Ahmad, Saif Ahmad, Matthew Casey, David Cheng, Tugba
    Taskaya, Paulo C F de Oliveira and Pensiri Manomaisupat: University of Surrey
   1140 - 1200: Discussion and Closing Remarks

				
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