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Indian Agriculture in 2015 Agriculture (a term which encompasses farming) is the art, science or practice of producing food, feed, fiber and many other desired goods by the systematic raising of plants and animals. Agri is from Latin ager ("a field"), and culture is from Latin cultura, meaning "cultivation" in the strict sense of tillage of the soil. Thus a literal reading of the English word yields tillage of the soil of a field. In actual usage, Agriculture denotes a broad array of activities essential to food and material production, including all techniques for raising and processing livestock no less than those essential to crop planting and harvesting. We can divide agriculture into two following divisions: 1- Agriculture: It includes crop cultivation and production 2- Allied Agriculture: It includes Dairy and other livestock activities, fisheries, honeybee production and various types of worms rearing It can't be easy for any person to predict the future. We can assume for future only on basis of what is today What will Indian agriculture in 2015? While in some areas we can confidently estimate quantitatively the outcome with a fair degree of accuracy, in some others we only know the broad direction. In still others we are unable to say with confidence the direction that future trends will take. We can only indicate what would be most desirable and signal the opportunities and obstacles that will arise along the way. The Challenges Ahead: 1) We know that India stands second in the world in having largest population. Every year India produces one Australia. This rapid growth of population has become a great issue for Indian agriculture. Indian agriculture faces tremendous challenges of producing enough food and milk for its growing population. This must be accompanied on same or declining land mass. There is a continuing need to increase food and milk production in the developing countries. And this increase has to come from increased yields from major crops grown on existing cultivable lands. Many approaches will have to be deployed simultaneously to increase India's food production by 2015. Indian agriculture contributes to the national Gross Domestic Product is about 18 per cent. With food being the crowning need of the mankind, much emphasis has been on commercializing agricultural production. when compared to other countries , the Indian agriculture has less productive yield per unit area. This is due to the Various reasons like low fertility of land, inadequate use of inputs like low quality seeds, poor irrigation facility, losses in handling, poor mechanization etc. In the next decade , the challenges in Indian agricultural sector are quite different from those met in the previous decades. The enormous pressure to produce more food and milk from less land with shrinking natural resources is a tough task for the farmers. 2) There is one major problem also, nowadays it is hard to find any interest of people to work in fields because of the low wages and hassle in it. Apart from this fertilizers rate gone up, drought, flood etc. So most of the agriculture lands are converting in to school, college, company buildings, Residential colonies etc.. So the area of farm is shrinking. Suitable employment generation with respected incentive will be a challenge 3) Excessive use of fertiliser causes degradation of farms. 4) Farms are dividing day by day. Therefore the average farm area has been reduce. Most of the persons, which are holding large farms are nothing growing on farms but only on papers, to save Income tax. 5) Less sources of Irrigation. It is not true to say that India has less sources of irrigation, but it is the wrong way to irrigate the farms, which causes deficiency of groundwater. . 6) India has largest number of animals and the milk procurement is second largest job for farmer next to crop-farming. But the milk production per animal is very low, even lower than world average. The quality of wool produces from Indian sheep is also low graded. 7) Indian farming largely depends upon weather conditions. If any factor of weather destroy the part or total yield of crop, farmer can't do anything. Keeping the views in mind, “Indian Agriculture in 2015” would be like as follows: 1. Production of Food grains: In the past, India has made great progress in providing food security for its people. However the growth rate of agriculture has decreased from 3.2 during 1985-90 (seventh plan) to 2.1 during 1997-2002 (Ninth plan). There has also been a decline in the growth rate of food grain production from 3.22 (1960) to 1.23 (1997). Food grain production is becoming a matter of concern again. According to a study baseline projection for total cereal demand in 2015 would be 230 million tons for direct human consumption. The relevant question that arises is whether India would be able to increase the food grain production in the coming years with the net-cropped area remaining same? Yes, definitely India will have the capacity to produce more than sufficient quantities of food to provide a healthy diet to its entire population and become a major food exporter. Even by maintaining the moderate rates of productivity growth achieved during the last decades, the country will be able to meet the projected demand in all major food categories and generate a substantial surplus of food grains. This will be happen through: A) Cooperative farming: Some number of farmers will joint together and do the farming using their joint available infrastructure. This will cause optimum use of their tools and resulting into higher yield at lower price. This farming also bring maximum use of water resources available. B) Corporate Farming: The name 'Corporate farming', will surprise to every person because it will be new concept of farming and dairying. The large Corporate will hire the farm (On lease) and do the farming using the local farmers and infrastructure. Corporate will introduce modern technology of farming, therefore average yield per hectare will increase and use of water and fertiliser will decrease. C) Implementation of new technology: Due to effect of information technology like computer, Internet, Phone, Mobiles, TV, and Printing media and increase rate of literacy, farmers will understand about new technology and will implement them, which will cause increase in total crop production and per hectare crop yield. Farmer will also understand about the uses of Bio-technology and will implement it in their field D) New innovations: Indian brain will innovate new ideas and techniques to produce more crop per hectare therefore we will be able to kiss the average world production. E) Establishment of Agri-clinics: As today health care centre are running, the agri clinics will also run in future. These clinics will test the soil and will advice to farmer for correct ratio of ingredients of fertilizers. These clinics will also help them for preventing crop disease, treatment of crop disease, if any and weather forecasting. Due to these agri- clinics: a) There will be proper use of fertiliser. b) Farmers will be aware of new technology c) They can prevent and protect their crops from any disease/s. 2) Role in GDP: In 2015 total contribution of Indian Agriculture in GDP will be 8-10% as compare to today's 18%. This will be due to rapidly growth in Service sector. 3) Employment: Increasing prosperity in agriculture will naturally lead to the growth of non-farm jobs in agri-industries, agro-business and other occupations required to meet the needs of an increasingly prosperous farming community. During the second decade of the 21st Century, increasing domestic demand for manufactured products and services, coupled with more rapid mechanisation of agriculture will draw in more and more people to non-farm occupations. By 2015, total employment in agriculture may fall to less than 45 per cent as compare to today's 55 percent. Agri processing units, warehouses, Agri-Business, Research and development in agriculture and allied services will attract rural youth for employment. This will reduce dependance on farm jobs. 4) Organic-Farming: The life style of people is rapidly changing which is resulting into several type of diseases. More use of fertilizer also induces toxic elements in food grains. These things will attract people to switch over to consumption of organic food. In next decade, the portion of organic farming will much greater then today. 5) Farming of medicinal and other plants: Farmer will more cultivate those crops, which can pay more to them. They will cultivate medicinals plants like jatropha and other many more. They will also wish to cultivate plants of fruits and vegetables instead of traditional farming. 6) Water Management: India possesses 16 per cent of the world’s population but just 4 per cent of its water resources. Overall, at the national level, current water resources are more than sufficient to meet the demand, but future studies project that the supply situation could become difficult over the next half century. India is not too poor in water resources. What it lacks is the ability to efficiently capture and effectively utilise the available resources for the maximum benefit. Although farmer will depend on rainfall and river water for irrigation yet Farmer will have to adopt following irrigation and water management techniques: a) Deep soil chiseling prior to planting, b) Rainwater harvesting techniques c) Proper use of fertiliser d) Treatment of domestic and industrial water For the past fifty years, public imagination has been stirred by proposals to link major rivers together in a manner that would channel surpluses from flood-prone areas into drought prone regions, create millions of hectares of additional irrigated land, provide an inexpensive system of inland water transport. 7) Methods to prevent losses: Following methods will be implemented for preventing losses: a) Agri-Clinics b) Corporate Advice: Corporate will direct interact with the farmers to purchase crops/ Commodities. For this corporate will advice to farmer about preventing losses through their experts. C) Insurance: Insurance can not prevent losses but it can reimburse the losses which occurred due to fortuitous event. Nowadays Insurance companies are preventing themselves to insure the crop due to high risk and lack of high premium. But in next decade due to literacy among farmers and extension work from government will encourage farmer to insure his crop. Due to adoption of risk preventing measures and taking more interest of farmer in insurance, Insurance companies will show their interest in insurance of crop. Insurance of crops, no doubt , will be a major tool for farmer. 8) Allied Agriculture: a) Due to change in life style, demand of dairy and dairy products will enhance. India has largest no. of animal but per animal mik yield is very low so in future farmer will adopt AI techniques so that they can get better animals, which will produce more milk at lower cost. Today average milk production per animal is less than 400 ml per animal per day but in 2015, it will be about 600 ml per animal per day. Due to very rapid growth in dairy sector many MNCs will attract and they will establish dairy processing unit, which will give a better price of milk to farmer. Some corporate and another multi millionaire people will establish large dairy farm, where they will rear highly pedigree animals. The waste land will be used for this purpose. b) Due to change in life style and modernization, people will attract to Non Vegetarian, which will cause growth in rearing of goats, ship, piggery and fisheries. Farmer and corporate will adopt modern techniques to rear these animals. e) Farmer will attract for honey bee and earth worm rearing because it can give extra money to them. Conclusion The future of Indian agriculture depends on three factors, viz. research, public policy and the farming community's cooperative action. 1. Research does not mean merely laboratory research; it includes research that would inform policy in al its aspects. Scientific organizations need to work with farmers and fishers. 2. Public policy made by politicians and policy makers should not for only capturing votes but for in right direction. Subsidy for fertilisers and in other areas should stop because it create corruption and nothing else 3. Farmers community should act in cooperative nature with themselves and corporates to produce high yield and get benefit from new research and policies A second productivity revolution in Indian agriculture, coupled with diversification to commercial crops, agri-business, processing industries, agro-exports and massive efforts towards afforestation and wasteland development will generate abundant farm and non- farm employment opportunities for the rural workforce. These in turn will stimulate demand for consumer goods and services, giving a fillip to the urban economy and the informal sector Thanks (Dr. Jugal Kishore Taneja) Bajaj Allianz GIC Ltd.
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