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ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Solving the Climate Puzzle:
The Crucial Role of
Compensated Reduction of
Tropical Deforestation
Annie Petsonk, International Counsel
apetsonk@environmentaldefense.org
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Topics to be covered
• Big picture: Where do global emissions need
to go, and how can Compensated Reduction
of Tropical Deforestation (“CR”) help?
• Case Study: Brazil
• Outlook: If Compensated Reduction
Moves Forward – and If It Doesn’t
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
The Big Picture
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Miami
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Global Emissions: Business-as-Usual Forecast Compared to Emissions
Pathways for Limiting Warming to 2 Degrees and 2.5 Degrees C.
80
70
2°C: 1.5% decline/yr
60
2.5°C: 1.5% decline/yr
50
Gt CO2e/yr
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Global Emissions: Business-as-Usual Forecast by Region
80
Emissions from Trop. Def.
Developing Countries
70
OECD & Trans. Economies
2°C: 1.5% decline/yr
60 2.5°C: 1.5% decline/yr
50
Gt CO2e/yr
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Total Emissions: US-CAP Enacted 2008; US Starts 2013; China/India Start 2018
80
Emissions from Trop. Def.
70 Rest of Developing Countries
China & India
Rest of OECD & Trans. Economies
60 United States
2°C: 1.5% decline/yr
G t C O 2 e /y r
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Compensated Reduction of Deforestation:
Reductions 2008-2012 would be compensated in the Post- 2012 Carbon Market
30000
Reduction of
Baseline: 20.000 km2 Deforestation
25000
20000
15000
10000 Post-2012 Carbon
Market
5000
08
09
10
11
12
9
0
1
92 92
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
**
*
/8
/9
/9
/9
/9
/9
/9
/9
/0
/0
/0
8
/
20
20
20
20
20
4
/8
88
89
90
91
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
/9
77
% reduction of deforestation = ~ 5%
Source: INPE 2003, IPAM
Avoided Emission: mean of 12 Million Tons C/yr
* Decade mean
** Biennium mean Reductions in deforestation 2008-2012 would be
compensated in the post-2012 Carbon Market
Ref: Tropical Deforestation & Climate Change, Moutinho & Schwartzman, eds. (IPAM 2005)
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Case Study: Brazil
The New Zero Deforestation Pact
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
The launching of the Pact at the National
Congress Oct 3rd, 2007
Marina Silva,
Amapá, Mato
Grosso,
Amazonas &
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
Acre
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Remaining Forests
Forest
Indigenous r.
Deforested
Int. protection
Non-forest
Sustainable use
Military
Cattle Net P. Value
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE (2007-2037)
U$ 900
U$ 0
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Outlook: If Compensated
Reduction Moves Forward
– and If It Doesn’t
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Outlook
• Compensated Reduction of Deforestation
– Old problems of baselines, additionality, leakage,
permanence have been addressed: national
baselines, satellite monitoring, carbon insurance
– CR a top-tier issue for Bali climate treaty talks
– Developing countries signaling interest in joining
carbon markets
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
CR Tons: Impact On
Carbon Markets
• Marginal Cost, Carbon Supply, Carbon
Demand, and Market Prices
• Latest Research
• “Crowding Out”: Price Caps vs. Supply
Increases
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Outlook, Cont’d.
• Tropical Forest Tons Crucial Bridge to Low-
Carbon Future
• ACSA (Lieberman-Warner bill) opens narrow
channel
• Broader channel urgently needed
• If we don’t save the forests, they will
disappear – with potentially catastrophic
impacts on the climate
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
For more information:
www.environmentaldefense.org/CR
apetsonk@environmentaldefense.org
202-387-3500
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Global Emissions (1990-2050)
60.0
50.0
If a project can earn
40.0
credits by reducing
emissions below
G t C O 2 e /y r
30.0 Business-as-Usual in an
uncapped developing
20.0 country…
10.0 …and if industrialized country
Non-Annex I BAU
Annex I w/reductions
emissions are capped…
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Global Emissions (1990-2050)
60.0
50.0
. . . then trading the
credits lets the
40.0
capped nation’s
G t C O 2 e /y r
30.0
emissions increase,
with no reduction in
20.0 global emissions.
10.0
Non-Annex I BAU
Annex I w/reductions
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Global Emissions (1990-2050)
60.0
50.0
Applying a mandatory
multiplier to transfers
40.0
of credits from
G t C O 2 e /y r
30.0
uncapped countries,
e.g., a requirement
20.0 that two tons be
tendered for every ton
10.0 of credit used. . .
Non-Annex I BAU
Annex I w/reductions
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE
Global Emissions (1990-2050)
60.0
50.0 . . . and retiring the
additional credits,
40.0
boosts the likelihood
G t C O 2 e /y r
that trading with
30.0
uncapped nations
20.0
yields a global benefit.
10.0
Non-Annex I BAU
Annex I w/reductions
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role
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