Meeting cooling demands in SUMMER by applying HEAT from

Document Sample
Meeting cooling demands in SUMMER by applying HEAT from Powered By Docstoc
					Meeting cooling demands in SUMMER by
   applying HEAT from cogeneration


                   Market Report
                       Deliverable 3.5


                     Germany
          Berliner Energieagentur GmbH
          Patrick Lamers, Nils Thamling

                             31.01.2008


                      Project co-ordinator:
                Berliner Energieagentur GmbH


                            Project Team:
                  Berliner Energieagentur GmbH (DE)
                 Austrian Energy Agency – E.V.A. (AT)
                    Fernwärme Wien GesmbH (AT)
                        CityPlan spol. s.r.o.(CZ)
                 Rhônealpénergie-Environnement (FR)
                    Energy Consulting Network (DK)
                        Københavns Energi (DK)
               National Energy Conservation Agency (PL)
                         Euroheat & Power (BE)

      This project is co-funded by the European Community through
                                                                Content
1    Introduction.................................................................................................... 1

2    German cooling market overview ................................................................ 2

3    Macro analysis ............................................................................................... 5
    3.1     Office space ........................................................................................................................ 5
    3.2     Office cooling demand and service charges ....................................................................... 7

4    Micro analysis ................................................................................................ 9
    4.1     Berlin ................................................................................................................................... 9
    4.1.1 Structure of the statistical base ........................................................................................ 9
    4.1.2 Demand for air-conditioning ........................................................................................... 10
    4.1.3 Willingness-to-pay .......................................................................................................... 13
    4.2     Hamburg ........................................................................................................................... 14
    4.2.1 Structure of the statistical base ...................................................................................... 14
    4.2.2 Demand for air-conditioning ........................................................................................... 16
    4.2.3 Willingness-to-pay .......................................................................................................... 18

5    Conclusion ................................................................................................... 19

6    Bibliography................................................................................................. 20

7    Appendix ...................................................................................................... 21
    Questionnaire – Summary of main questions ............................................................................ 21
    Screening ................................................................................................................................... 21
    Office equipment ........................................................................................................................ 21
    Room acclimatisation ................................................................................................................. 21
                                                                                              Introduction




1 Introduction

The European market for air-conditioners is showing a strong increase. The
AUDITAC study – conducted by the Austrian Energy Agency (AEA), assessed the
size and development of the market until 2020. It shows that in 1990, air-
conditioners with a capacity below 12 kW were cooling around 540 million m². By
2005 this amount had already more than tripled up to 1,800 million m². As the
numbers rise – so does the demand for energy. The energy demand for cooling in
the EU 15 alone is estimated to be 78 TWh in 2005 and increase up to 115 TWh
by 2020. Graph 1-1 shows the expected development of the amount of cooled
space until 2020.




Graph 1-1. Development of the amount of cooled space in the EU15 (AUDITAC, 2005)1

Looking at Graph 1-1, it is obvious that a steady increase of cooling demand calls
for energy efficient measures and technologies to supply the cooling. Apart from
levelling out the CHP heat demand during summer, this is one of the main targets
of the project SUMMERHEAT.




1 RAC: Room air-conditioners; Rtops: Roof tops; PACK&SPITSlarge: pack and split chillers; VRF: Variable
 refrigerant flow (CAC); Chillers: absorption and adsorption chillers, and DEC



                                                                                                          1
                                                               German cooling market overview




2 German cooling market overview
The cooling market in Germany is relatively untapped in comparison to more
mature markets like Southern Europe, Japan, or the USA. As a rule of thumb, a
mature cooling market has the size of around 30 % of the respective heating
market (E-Bridge, 2005). This number is derived by an analyis of the market for
Southern Europe. In comparison, the Austrian cooling market is estimated to be
able to reach a size of around 10 % of the heat demand. As Germany and Austria
have similar climatic conditions and building structures, it is estimated that the
German cooling market could reach a size of around 10-15 % of the size of the
heat market.
Currently, the highest demands for cooling through chillers in Germany is found in
the areas of retailing, industry, and air-conditioning (AC) in fixed (i.e. office
buildings, hotels, etc.) as well as mobile applications (i.e. cars, trains, etc.) (see
Graph 2-1). The total cooling demand in 1999 was calculated to be 165 TWh (see
Table 2-1).


                                  Others
                    AC mobile
                                   2%
                      10%



      AC fixed
       20%




         Industry                                              Retailing
            3%                                                  65%




Graph 2-1: Shares of total cooling demand (165 TWh) in 1999 in Germany (DKV, 2002, p. 8ff)

The lions share of the three main areas is easily explained through the typical
applications of cooling: food storage, process cooling in industry, and air-
conditioning. A more detailed picture of these three applications in the German
scenario is given in Graph 2-2 and Table 2-1. As the table shows, stationary air-
conditioning (the target application within SUMMERHEAT) is the second largest
demand source for cooling in Germany. Its energy demand is dominated by
electrical energy. Only 6.5 % of the energy demand is covered by non-electrical
energy. Consequently, it is not surprising that fixed AC have the second largest
primary energy demand.


                                                                                             2
                                                                          German cooling market overview




Table 2-1. Energy demand for the production of cooling in Germany in 1999 (DKV, 2002, p. 8 & 33)
                             total energy demand [GWh/a]                 primary energy         total cooling
                                                                        demand [GWh/a]        demand [GWh/a]
                          electrical     non-electrical        total
 Food storage                48.050                  3.071     51.121            153.909               108.058
 Industry                     6.854                     0       6.854             20.795                 5.225
 AC (fixed)                   9.640                   670      10.310             28.360                32.440
 AC (mobile)                        65               7.106      7.171             21.989                16.108
 Others                       1.579                    65       1.644                 4.981              3.066
 Total                       66.188                 10.912     77.100            230.034               164.897




           180.000
                                                                              total energy demand
           160.000                                                            primary energy demand
                                                                              total cooling demand
           140.000

           120.000

           100.000
   GWh/a




            80.000

            60.000

            40.000

            20.000

                0
                     Food storage        Industry            AC fixed     AC mobile           Others


Graph 2-2: Shares of installed cooling capacity in Germany (DKV, 2002)



The evolution of the various economic sectors and their demand for comfort vary a
lot. Retail and business offices however grow significantly in relative terms.
According to EECCAC (2003), combined, they could reach a market share of up to
70 % by 2020. The EU-funded project ‘Energy Efficiency and Certification of
Central Air Conditioners’ (EECCAC) was one of the first projects to provide
detailed information on the further cooling market development. The following




                                                                                                         3
                                                                           German cooling market overview




graph is derived from its data. It shows that the amount of air-conditioned floor
space is going to increase significantly in Germany until 2020.2

               45
                                                                                            42,30
                              Cooling
               40
                              Reverse                                          37,57
               35


               30
                                                                   29,24
  Million m²




               25


               20                                     19,92


               15

                                           11,30
               10
                                                                                            8,69
                                                                               7,72
                                 6,62                              6,01
                5
                       3,78                           4,12
                                           2,50
                       0,70      1,35
                0
                    1990      1995      2000       2005        2010         2015        2020



Graph 2-3: Development of the air-conditioned floor space in Germany (EECAC, 2003, p. 13)




2 The graph differentiates between floor space that is supplied by cooling only and heating as well as cooling
 (reverse) through the air-conditioning system.



                                                                                                                 4
                                                                        Macro analysis




3 Macro analysis
The city of Berlin has an annual heat demand of around 36 TWh/a (UIU, 2006).
Taking the role of thumb (see chapter 2) a size of 10 % would result in a cooling
market potential of around 3.6 TWh/a. Looking at Graph 2-1, industry, office, and
retail will take the lions share in this demand. While industry and retail have very
specific cooling demands including the operation of deep freezers and process
cooling, most likely the biggest customer group for air-conditioning services is
offices.
The cooling demand in office buildings is generally lower in old than in new ones
where modern architecture with a significant amount of glass and heat insulation.
The usage of electronic equipment can increase the cooling demand further.
Hence, modern office buildings usually have sufficient cooling demand all year
round for the installation of a chiller. While one of the main restricting factors in
existing buildings is the availability of space for the installation and/or the
compatibility with an existing cooling system in place. Those factors can be
accounted for right from the start in newly constructed buildings.

3.1 Office space
At the end of 2007, the amount of office space in Berlin reached 16.63 million m²
(JLLS, 2008a, p. 3). Due to a high amount of unoccupied space (~ 10 %), the
increase in newly built buildings has sharply dropped since 2004. It is estimated
that the amount of office space will rise to about 16.7 million m² in 2010 while the
amount of unoccupied space will further diminish (JLLS, 2008a, p. 3).
As Graph 3-1 shows, most of the contracts in Berlin for office space are closed in
range below 1,000 m². While contracts for large office spaces above 5,000 m² are
rather seldom, five more contracts could be closed in 2007 (JLLS, 2008a). This
indicates that the office market for Berlin is still dynamic. Also, the average price
per m² of rent paid rose slightly. Both factors are taken as a positive development
for the potential application of thermal driven chillers.
The low increase in office space however indicates that the main market for (waste
heat driven) thermal chillers in Berlin lies in the replacement of existing cooling
systems and the equipment of existing office buildings. As stated earlier the
integration into the existing heating and (where applicable) cooling system is the
main restricting factor.




                                                                                    5
                                                                                  Macro analysis




Graph 3-1. Amount of contracts and take-up depending on office size (Atisreal 2007a)

At the end of 2007, the amount of office space in Hamburg reached 13.9 million
m² (JLLS, 2008b, p. 3). The amount of unoccupied space is with 6.9 %
significantly lower than in Berlin. The amount of new office being built is therefore
higher in Berlin. It is estimated that the amount of office space will rise to about
14.3 million m² in 2010 (JLLS, 2008a, p. 3).
As Graph 3-2 shows, as in Berlin, most of the contracts for office space rent in
Hamburg are closed in the range below 1,000 m². Contracts for large office spaces
remain seldom. The office market in Hamburg is still very dynamic. As in Berlin,
the average price per m² of rent paid rose again in 2007. Both factors are taken as
a positive development for the potential application of thermal driven chillers.
Contrary to Berlin, Hamburg could show significant potential for the application of
thermal chillers in newly built office buildings – apart from replacing old AC
systems.




Graph 3-2. Amount of contracts and take-up depending on office size (Atisreal 2007b)




                                                                                              6
                                                                                                        Macro analysis




3.2 Office cooling demand and service charges
According to DKV (2002), the annual electricity demand for air-conditioners in
office buildings in Germany is around 9.64 TWh. Even though only 47 % of all
offices in Germany are air-conditioned yet (JLLS, 2007). However, as stated
before, it is estimated that the share of office buildings with AC will increase in the
future. In the US e.g. around 76 % of all offices are air-conditioned (EIA, 2000). In
Europe, around 90 % of all newly constructed buildings are equipped with AC
(AEA, 2005). The overall German trend in AC is that the amount generally
increases with the size of the office (see Graph 3-3).

  100%

  90%                                                                                      86%

  80%

  70%

                                                      59%
  60%
                                                                          50%
  50%
                                   40%
  40%

  30%          25%

  20%

  10%

   0%
          1,000 - 4,999 m²   5,000 - 9,999 m²   10,000 - 19,999 m² 20,000 - 49,999 m²   ≥ 50,000 m²



Graph 3-3: Amount of office space with AC in Germany depending on office size (JLLS 2007)

As a survey by Jones Lang LaSalle (2007) shows, 51 % of all office space in
Berlin is air-conditioned, while only 41.5 % of all office space in Hamburg has AC.
According to EECCAC (2003), up to 66 % of all office space in climatic regions
such as Germany could be air-conditioned by 2020. Based on these numbers the
following scenarios have been derived (see Table 3-2).

Table 3-2: Potential amount of air-conditioning in Berlin and Hamburg until 2010 and 2020.

 Share of AC of the total                                    Hamburg                                  Hamburg
                                      Berlin 2010                               Berlin 2020
   office space area                                           2010                                     2020

         Low AC rate                       52 %                 43 %                60 %               52 %

         High AC rate                      55 %                 46 %                66 %               55 %



What’s interesting regarding the lower rate of AC office space in Hamburg
compared to Berlin is the price difference for cooled office space i.e. service


                                                                                                                    7
                                                                                  Macro analysis




charges for AC (in m² and month) (see Graph 3-4). Service charges (per m² and
month) of air-conditioned office space are generally higher over the years in
Hamburg than in Berlin. They are also significantly higher compared to offices
without AC in Hamburg for the whole monitoring period. In Berlin however, the
service charges (per m² and month) for office space with AC are in some years
even lower than in offices without AC.

               4,5
                            Berlin - AC           Berlin - no AC
                            Hamburg - AC          Hamburg - no AC
                4



               3,5
  €/m²/month




                3



               2,5



                2



               1,5
                     2001                  2002          2003       2004   2005    2006



Graph 3-4. Service charges in Berlin and Hamburg (JLLS, 2007)




                                                                                              8
                                                                                                            Micro analysis




4 Micro analysis
The micro analysis aims to inquire the key actors on the demand side and to
indicate the substantial criteria and prices for the use of cooling. The interviews
were undertaken within the period of May and July 2007. The interviewees were
chosen on a random basis out of an address database. The interviewed persons
are in all cases the responsible person for choosing and deciding upon the AC in
the individual offices.

4.1 Berlin

4.1.1 Structure of the statistical base
The statistical base of the Berlin survey consisted mainly of office buildings.
However a significant amount of them was located in buildings which also had
private apartments. The size of the offices was relatively balanced although the
largest share is taken by offices below 100 m².




                               Office building               Mainly Flats                 Mainly Office   Office and Trade
 Building usage                  72                          59                           50                 35




                                      below 100m²                           100 - 250m²                   over 250m²
  Size of offices                       126                                       97                        52




                    0%   10%          20%        30%   40%        50%       60%        70%        80%      90%         100%



Graph 4-1: Type of buildings and office sizes

The rent per m² and month in Berlin was classified in three categories: < 10 €,
10-15 €, > 15 €. The categories were deducted from the current rent levels in
Berlin as laid out in real estate surveys.
Interestingly the rate of air-conditioned office spaces in the survey was marginal.
Only 7 % of the offices has already fully air-conditioned rooms. The far majority is




                                                                                                                              9
                                                                                                                                                          Micro analysis




covered by offices with no air-conditioning giving the survey a very solid ground for
the expectations of new customer groups.
range of rent per m² & month                          < 10 €        10 - 15 €       Air-conditioning                                                             f ully air-conditioned
                                                      > 15 €        <9€                                                                                          semi air-conditioned
                                                      9 - 12 €      > 12 €                                                                                       no air-conditioning
                                                                                                                       7%                         8%

                                       38%




  37%                                                     25%
                                                                                                                           85%
                                   0%
                                                                Total: 273                                                                                               Total: 266


Graph 4-2: range of rent                                                            Graph 4-3: Amount of AC

The structure of the business sector surveyed is shown in the following graph.

                                                                   Business sector - Berlin

           45

           40

           35

           30
  Amount




           25

           20

           15

           10

           5

           0
                                                                                                                                         g
                                                                               sm




                                                                                        IT
                  e




                             e




                                                              re




                                                                                                          g
                                                  g




                                                                                                                          n




                                                                                                                                                           fic
                                                                                                       tin




                                                                                                                                       n
                           nc
                  ad




                                                in




                                                                                                                      tio
                                                            ca




                                                                                                                                                        af
                                                                                                                                    lti
                                                                             yi
                                             nc




                                                                                                     ke
                           ra




                                                                                                                     tra
                Tr




                                                                                                                                    su




                                                                                                                                                    Tr
                                                                        bb
                                                          lth
                                          na
                         su




                                                                                                   ar




                                                                                                                   is




                                                                                                                                  on




                                                                                                                                                    &
                                                                      Lo
                                                       ea
                                       Fi




                                                                                                                in
                                                                                                  M
                       In




                                                                                                                                 C




                                                                                                                                                 rt
                                                                                                                m
                                                      H
                                   &




                                                                                               &




                                                                                                                                              po
                                                                                                              ad
                                  s




                                                                                             ia




                                                                                                                                              s
                                  nk




                                                                                                                                           an
                                                                                          ed




                                                                                                           ic
                                Ba




                                                                                                         bl




                                                                                                                                         Tr
                                                                                         M



                                                                                                      Pu




Graph 4-4: Structure of the business sector surveyed


4.1.2 Demand for air-conditioning
The second block of the analysis looks at the demand for air-conditioning (AC). In
a first step, the status quo is measured: the interviewees were asked to describe
their level of satisfaction with the current AC and what they would think of a
cooling service offered by their energy provider. The results as shown in Graph 4-
5 indicate that most of the people are happy with their current AC. Looking at the
bar below, the low chance for the energy utility to offer cooling services to new or
unsatisfied customers becomes even more obvious. It should be kept in mind



                                                                                                                                                                                10
                                                                                              Micro analysis




however that the general public in Germany is very reluctant towards new services
offered by their energy suppliers as those currently are perceived to have a bad
public image.




                         unsatisfied    indifferent                                 content

Rate of satisfaction with
                                11%         26%                        63%
      current AC

                                                                                 Amount: 38



                         high              med.                                        low

  Interest for an offer by
                                  21%         11%                     68%
     the energy utility

                                                                                Amount: 228




Graph 4-5: Potential cooling demand

This picture is again supported by results shown in Graph 4-6 where the
interviewees indicate their level of happiness with the AC-temperatures in their
respective offices. While the picture shows that around a quarter of all
interviewees is unsatisfied with the AC as it is generally too warm, the picture
remains quite balanced.


                                                24%
temperature was just right
                                                  25%



                                                        31%
      slighty warm but ok
                                                            34%



        slightly warm and               18%
          uncomfortable                    20%



      much too warm and                               27%
        uncomfortable                      20%



                                                                  Interviewee   Amount: 262
                                                                  Customer      Amount: 138

Graph 4-6: Temperature levels

The next questions focused on the development of a cooling demand curve and to
get an idea of the amount of space aimed to receive AC. Obviously, as the


                                                                                                         11
                                                                                               Micro analysis




following graph shows, the demand for cooling follows a mixed line between the
outside temperatures (increase towards midday) and is limited by the average
working hours (9 am – 6 pm).



     100%



      75%



      50%                                         98%         96%

                                                                         73%
                                  65%
      25%


                  8%                                                                 4%
       0%
                6 - 9 am        9 - 11 am    11 am - 2 pm    2 - 4 pm   4 - 7 pm   7 - 10 pm




Graph 4-7: Cooling demand curve

The typical space aimed to receive AC are the regular offices – as Graph 4-8
shows. Apart from the management offices and the meeting rooms, almost no
interviewee thought that more AC is needed.


       Regular offices                                      84%



   Management offices                       43%



        Meeting rooms             22%



        Entrance area       12%



            Kitchen etc.   8%



            Restrooms      4%




Graph 4-8: Office space aimed for AC

As a final question during the interview, people were asked to give a number of
soft factors (including ranking) that could lead to their denial of AC or influence
their satisfaction with an existing system. As the results show (see Graph 4-9),




                                                                                                          12
                                                                                                       Micro analysis




noise, uncomfortable climate, room specific controlling, and size do matter to the
interviewees whereas the smell and costs are of minor importance.


         application is too noisy                          50%

          uncomfortable climate                           49%

            application is too big               29%

     no room specific controlling                28%

          noise, dirt, craftsmen                25%

           too high usage costs           19%

                energy wastage            16%

            technically immature      14%

       too high installation costs    14%

               application stinks    8%                Others: health risks, closed windows, comfort




Graph 4-9: Soft factors against AC


4.1.3 Willingness-to-pay
The majority of the interviewees is willing to pay 0.3 to 0.6 €/m²/month for cooling.3




3 Due to contractual agreements with Vattenfall Europe AG & Co KG, the exact price scenarios are
 confidential.



                                                                                                                  13
                                                                                                                 Micro analysis




4.2 Hamburg

4.2.1 Structure of the statistical base
The statistical base of the Hamburg survey consisted mainly of office buildings.
However a significant amount (~ 35 %) of them was located in buildings which
mainly serve as private apartments. The size of the offices was a bit more
balanced than Berlin. The largest share was still taken by offices below 100 m².




                               Office building               Mainly Flats                 Mainly Office        Office and Trade
 Building usage                       126                                   109                           35          27




                                     below 100m²                            100 - 250m²                        over 250m²
  Size of offices                      128                                  103                                66




                    0%   10%        20%          30%   40%    50%           60%      70%          80%           90%         100%



Graph 4-10: Type of buildings and office sizes

The rent per m² and month in Hamburg was classified in three categories: < 9 €,
9-12 €, > 12 €. As for Berlin, the categories were deducted from the current rent
levels as laid out in real estate surveys.
Also for Hamburg, the rate of air-conditioned office spaces in the survey was
marginal. Only 4 % of the offices has already fully air-conditioned rooms. The far
majority is covered by offices with no air-conditioning giving the survey a very solid
ground for the expectations of new customer groups.




                                                                                                                                   14
                                                                                                                                                               Micro analysis




range of rent per m² & month                         < 10 €         10 - 15 €            Air-conditioning                                                       f ully air-conditioned
                                                     > 15 €         <9€                                                                                         semi air-conditioned
                                                     9 - 12 €       > 12 €                                                                                      no air-conditioning
                                                                                                                      4%                 6%

                37%




                                                              36%


           27%                                                                                                                       90%
                                  0%
                                                              Total: 297                                                                                                  Total: 297


Graph 4-11: range of rent                                                                Graph 4-12: Amount of AC

The structure of the business sector surveyed is shown in the following graph.

                                                                    Business sector - Hamburg

           50

           45

           40

           35

           30
  Amount




           25

           20

           15

           10

           5

           0
                                                                                                 IT
                  e




                             e




                                                                                                                                                  g
                                                                                     m
                                                 g




                                                                  re




                                                                                                                  g




                                                                                                                                     n




                                                                                                                                                                    fic
                  ad




                                                                                                               tin




                                                                                                                                                 tin
                             nc




                                              in




                                                                                                                                 tio
                                                                                   is
                                                                ca




                                                                                                                                                                 af
                                           nc




                                                                                by




                                                                                                                                               ul
                           ra




                                                                                                            ke




                                                                                                                               ra
                Tr




                                                                                                                                                                Tr
                                                             th




                                                                                                                                             ns
                                        na
                        su




                                                                                                                                 t
                                                                                b




                                                                                                          ar




                                                                                                                              is
                                                          al




                                                                                                                                                             &
                                                                             Lo




                                                                                                                                           Co
                                       Fi




                                                                                                                           in
                                                                                                         M
                       In




                                                        He




                                                                                                                                                          rt
                                                                                                                        m
                                    &




                                                                                                                                                           o
                                                                                                      &



                                                                                                                      ad




                                                                                                                                                        sp
                                  ks




                                                                                                    ia




                                                                                                                                                     an
                                                                                                  ed




                                                                                                                  ic
                                n
                             Ba




                                                                                                                bl




                                                                                                                                                  Tr
                                                                                                 M



                                                                                                              Pu




Graph 4-13: Structure of the business sector surveyed




                                                                                                                                                                                   15
                                                                                                          Micro analysis




4.2.2 Demand for air-conditioning
The second block of the analysis was structured just as in Berlin. The results as
shown in Graph 4-14 indicate that most of the people are happy with their current
AC. Looking at the bar below, the low chance for the energy utility to offer cooling
services to new or unsatisfied customers becomes even more obvious.




                             unsatisfied   indifferent                                                 content

Rate of satisfaction with
                                    10%     23%                                 68%
      current AC

                                                                                                Amount: 31



                             high             med.                                                        low

  Interest for an offer by
                                     15%       19%                                 66%
     the energy utility

                                                                                               Amount: 267




Graph 4-14: Potential cooling demand

This picture is again supported by results shown in Graph 4-15 where the
interviewees indicate their level of happiness with the AC-temperatures in their
respective offices. Here, the satisfaction rates within Hamburg are slightly smaller
than in Berlin. The picture in general is quite balanced nevertheless.


                                           18%
temperature was just right
                                             20%



                                                     26%
      slighty warm but ok
                                                         28%



        slightly warm and                                  31%
          uncomfortable                                        32%



      much too warm and                           24%
        uncomfortable                       20%



                                                                     Interviewee         Amount: 294
                                                                     Customer            Amount: 193

Graph 4-15: Temperature levels


                                                                                                                     16
                                                                                              Micro analysis




The cooling demand curve for Hamburg is similar to the one in Berlin, although the
peak load during midday is emphasized even more.



     100%



      75%



      50%                                    100%           100%
                              94%                                       94%



      25%


                 15%                                                                9%
       0%
                6 - 9 am    9 - 11 am     11 am - 2 pm      2 - 4 pm   4 - 7 pm   7 - 10 pm




Graph 4-16: Cooling demand curve

The results for the space aimed to receive AC are the same as for Berlin (see
Graph 4-17).



        Regular offices                               76%



    Management offices                          65%



        Meeting rooms               35%



         Entrance area     15%



            Kitchen etc.   12%



            Kitchen etc.   12%




Graph 4-17: Office space aimed for AC

The main differences to Berlin are the results in the final question regarding the
soft factors. As the results show (see Graph 4-18), noise, uncomfortable climate,
room specific controlling, and size do matter are still the same top four choices,



                                                                                                         17
                                                                                                        Micro analysis




their ranking however is different. The uncomfortable climate is by far the most
relevant (49 % in Berlin, and second choice), also the noise level of the machine is
a bigger concern for more he interviewees in Hamburg (50 % in Berlin, top
choice). For Hamburg, in contradiction to Berlin, room specific controlling is more
important than the size of the machine.


          uncomfortable climate                               73%

         application is too noisy                       58%

     no room specific controlling                 37%

            application is too big          23%

          noise, dirt, craftsmen           19%

                energy wastage            16%

            technically immature          16%

           too high usage costs       14%

               application stinks     9%

       too high installation costs   3%                 Others: health risks, closed windows, comfort




Graph 4-18: Soft factors against AC


4.2.3 Willingness-to-pay
The majority of the interviewees is willing to pay 0.3 to 0.6 €/m²/month for cooling.4




4 Due to contractual agreements with Vattenfall Europe AG & Co KG, the exact price scenarios are
 confidential.



                                                                                                                   18
                                                                             Conclusion




5 Conclusion
Generally, the macro analysis indicates that the demand for cooling will increase
significantly within the next decade in Germany. The amount of cooling demand
could sum up 10-15 % of the amount of heating demand.
Currently, the biggest shares in installed cooling capacity through chillers is found
in the areas of retailing, industry, and office buildings. The total installed capacity
is estimated to be 45 GW with an annual cooling demand of around 165 TWh/a
(DKV, 2002, p. 8).
The lion’s share of the three main areas of cooling usage is reflected in the most
common applications for cooling: food storage, process cooling in industry, and
AC (stationary and mobile). Stationary AC, the target application within
SUMMERHEAT is the second largest demand source for cooling in Germany.
What’s more, its energy demand is dominated by electrical energy. Only 6.5 % of
the energy demand is covered by non-electrical energy.
The micro analysis surveys in Berlin and Hamburg cover all parts of the tertian
sector – 80 % of which are mainly commercial buildings. Both surveys reveal
similar results. In both cities, independently from the status of the AC (with or
without), the majority of tenants and owners of buildings are quite content with
their indoor climate. The majority of the interviewees is willing to pay 0.3 to 0.6
€/m²/month for cooling.




                                                                                    19
                                                                        Bibliography




6 Bibliography
Atisreal, 2008a. City Report – Berlin 2007. URL: www.atisreal.com

Atisreal, 2008b. City Report – Hamburg 2007. URL: www.atisreal.com

AUDITAC, 2005: Field Benchmarking and Market Development for Audit Methods
  in Air Conditioning. Austrian Energy Agency. URL:
  http://www.energyagency.at/(de)/projekte/auditac.htm [31.01.2008]

Austrian Energy Agency (AEA), 2005: Klimatisierung, Kühlung und Klimaschutz:
  Technologien, Wirtschaftlichkeit und CO2 Reduktionspotentiale. Authors:
  Simader, G. R. & Rakos, C., Österreichische Energieagentur, Wien.

Deutscher Kälte- und Klimatechnischer Verein (DKV), 2002: Statusbericht Nr. 22,
  Energiebedarf für die technische Erzeugung von Kälte, ISBN 3-932-715-06-3.
  URL: http://www.dkv.org/sb_nr__22.htm [31.01.2008]

E-Bridge Consulting GmbH (E-Bridge), 2005: Endbericht: Studie über KWK
  Potentiale in Österreich, E-Bridge Consulting GmbH, Villach.

Energy Information Administration (2000): Commercial Buildings Energy
  Consumption Survey 1999, http://www.eia.doe.gov

Energy Efficiency and Certification of Central Air Conditioners (EECCAC), 2003:
  Final report – April 2003, Vol. 1. Authors: Jérôme Adnot, J. , Armine, F. &
  Waide, P. (2003). Study for the D.G. Transportation-Energy (DGTREN) of the
  Commission of the EU. URL:
  http://www.cenerg.ensmp.fr/francais/themes/mde/pdf/EECCACfinalvol1.pdf
  [31.01.2008]

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLLS), 2007: Büronebenkostenanalyse OSCAR 2006. URL:
  http://www.joneslanglasalle.com [31.01.2008]

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLLS), 2008a: City Profile Berlin 2007, Update Q4 07. URL:
  http://www.joneslanglasalle.com [31.01.2008]

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLLS), 2008b: City Profile Hamburg 2007, Update Q4 07.
  URL: http://www.joneslanglasalle.com [31.01.2008]

Unabhängiges Institut für Umweltfragen e. V. (UIU), 2006: Die Wärmeversorgung
  Berlins im Jahre 2030. URL:
  http://www.ufu.de/component/option,com_docman/Itemid,0/task,doc_download/
  gid,85/ [31.01.2008].


                                                                                  20
                                                                                              Appendix




7 Appendix

Questionnaire – Summary of main questions

Screening

SC 1   Introduction, asking if interested in survey or not

SC 2   Try to get connected to the responsible person for energy services

SC 3   Screen if company fulfils your requirements e.g. house is rented/owned, etc.

SC4    Statistical questions e.g. zip-code


Office equipment

OE1    Number of employees

OE2    Building usage structure

OE3    Used space

OE4    Amount of rooms

OE5    Billing procedure for energy bills

OE6    Current acclimatisation of the room: full, half, none.

OE7    Current costs for heating and cooling


Room acclimatisation

RA1    Thinking of last summer, how did you perceive the room temperature in your office?

RA2    How happy are you in general with you current cooling?

RA3    General interest in cooling independent from any problems

RA4    Which rooms do you want to cool?

RA5    % of total office space

RA6    During which time of the day?

RA7    Think of your current costs for energy services: “lower limit“ – “upper limit“. How much do
       you think you would be willing-to-pay for cooling?

RA8    What would you think if your building owner installs an application in your office?
RA9    Which criteria should the cooling fulfil in order to make you willing to have it? (soft factors)
RA10 Thinking of the putting into operation of your machine. Which circumstances would make it
     inacceptable to have a cooling system in your office? (soft factors)
RA11 Private experiences with cooling: positive/negative perceptions? Examples. (soft factors)




                                                                                                      21