Japanese Business Cycle Reference Dates

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					                   Japanese Business Cycle Reference Dates
   The Working Group of Indexes of Business Conditions of the ESRI provisionally
  determined that a trough in the Japanese business cycle occurred in January 2002.


                    The Reference Dates of the Business Cycle

               Peak (By      Trough (By    Peak (By      Trough (By
               Month)        Month)        Quarter)      Quarter)
               Jun. 1951     Oct. 1951     2Q 1951       4Q 1951
               Jan. 1954     Nov. 1954     1Q 1954       4Q 1954
               Jun. 1957     Jun. 1958     2Q 1957       2Q 1958
               Dec. 1961     Oct. 1962     4Q 1961       4Q 1962
               Oct. 1964     Oct. 1965     4Q 1964       4Q 1965
               Jul. 1970     Dec. 1971     3Q 1970       4Q 1971
               Nov. 1973     Mar. 1975     4Q 1973       1Q 1975
               Jan. 1977     Oct. 1977     1Q 1977       4Q 1977
               Feb. 1980     Feb. 1983     1Q 1980       1Q 1983
               Jun. 1985     Nov. 1986     2Q 1985       4Q 1986
               Feb. 1991     Oct. 1993     1Q 1991       4Q 1993
               May. 1997     Jan. 1999     2Q 1997       1Q 1999
               (Oct. 2000)   (Jan. 2002)   (4Q 2000)     (1Q 2002)
Source: ESRI