Docstoc

Modeling Plan

Document Sample
Modeling Plan Powered By Docstoc
					                               Modeling Plan

                 WRAP Regional Modeling Center 2006
           BART and Other Sensitivity Modeling and Analysis to
           Support the Development of the Section 308 SIPs/TIPs

                                  Outline
                                 Version#3
                              January 19, 2006


1. INTRODUCTION
      a. Background
              i. Overview of Regional Haze Rule
             ii. Overview of WRAP
            iii. Overview of RMC Responsibilities
            iv. Modeling Components of December 2007 Regional Haze Plans
      b. Purpose
              i. Identify RMC BART Sensitivity Analysis
             ii. Evaluate Section 309 SO2 Annex Regional Impacts
            iii. Evaluate fire sensitivity strategies
            iv. Evaluate modeled clean conditions
             v. Perform source-receptor visibility culpability assessments
            vi. Other Sensitivity Analysis
      c. Presentation of Results
              i. WRAP RMC Simulation Specifications
             ii. 2018 Uniform Rate of Progress model test following EPA
                 guidance
            iii. 2018 changes in controllable (anthropogenic) components of
                 visibility
            iv. 2018 changes by species concentrations (e.g., SO4, NO3, etc.)
             v. Other to be determined
            vi. Remaining Major RMC Report Deliverables
                     1. 2018 Base Case and Sensitivity Modeling
                     2. 2006 Final Report

2. BART MODELING REQUIREMENTS
     a. Regional Haze Rule and BART Guidelines
     b. Role of Air Quality Models
     c. EPA Guidance on Air Quality Models
     d. Steps in the BART Modeling Process
     e. CALPUFF Modeling Recommendations
     f. Alternative Models for BART Analysis

3. RMC BART MODELING ASSISTANCE
     a. Types of BART Modeling
               i. Exemption Modeling
              ii. Assessment of Visibility Benefits of BART
            iii. Cumulative Assessment of Trading Program
       b. Summary of Current BART Modeling Activities
               i. Colorado
              ii. North Dakota
            iii. Texas
             iv. VISTAS
              v. CENRAP
             vi. MRPO
            vii. …
       c. RMC CALPUFF Modeling Assistance
               i. With exception of Alaska, Up to States
              ii. Can provide 2001-2003 MM5 Data of desired
            iii. Reference CALPUFF BART Modeling Protocols
             iv.
       d. RMC BART Alaska CALPUFF Modeling
               i. Overview of Approach
              ii. Meteorological Modeling
                     1. MM5
                     2. CALMET
            iii. CALPUFF Modeling
                     1. CALPUFF Inputs
             iv. Potential BART-Eligible Sources
                     1. ERG Report
                     2. List Sources being Considered
              v. Visibility Assessment Approach

4. RMC BART SENSITIVITY MODELING
     a. RMC Needs from States for Regional BART Analysis
           i. States identify their own BART-eligible Sources
                  1. Provide to RMC in form suitable for identify sources in the
                      2002 SMOKE emissions modeling files
                  2. Provide estimate of pollutant/stack-specific and State-wide
                      emission reductions (for QA)
                  3. Other?
     b. Modeling Platforms
           i. CMAQ and CAMx
                  1. Currently using 36 km grid, is that adequate
          ii. Source Attribution Approaches
                  1. Zero-Out Modeling of Impacts (Brute Force)
                  2. PM Source Apportionment Modeling of Impacts (See
                      Appendix A)
     c. RMC Planned Runs
           i. 2018 On-the-Books (OTB) Base Case
                  1. Current base is plan18a that is undergoing updates
           ii. Sensitivity of 36/12 km grid and w/ and w/o PiG PSAT
                  1. Perform 1-month test of BART-type zero-out modeling
                       using CMAQ and/or CAMx on a 36 km and 12 km grid to
                       assess effects of grid resolution on calculation impacts
                  2. Perform 1-month test of 36 km and/or 36/12 km grid Bart-
                       type zero-out modeling with and without Plume-in-Grid
                  3. Perform 1-month test of 36 km and/or 36/12 km grid
                       BART-type modeling using PSAT with PiG
          iii. Zero BART VOC Emissions
                  1. Can all BART VOC emissions be exempted from BART
                       process?
          iv. Zero BART PM Emissions
                  1. Can all BART PM emissions be exempted from BART
                       process?
           v. 2018 On-the-Way (OTW) Base Case
                  1. Additional controls that are planned but not OTB (e.g.,
                       PacifiCorp and others, etc.)
          vi. Cumulative BART Modeling Assessment
                  1. Use State provided BART controls
                           a. State’s decide which sources are subject to BART
                               and BART control levels
                  2. Use PM Source Apportionment to identify contributions of
                       sources to visibility impairment after BART
                           a. SO2 Annex Point Sources
                           b. BART point sources
                           c. Other point sources
                           d. Other sources
                           e.
5. RMC SENSITIVITY MODELING TO SUPPORT 308 SIPS/TIPS
     a. 2018 Control Strategy Modeling
            i. 2018 OTB Base Case
           ii. 2018 OTW Base Case
          iii. 2018 BART Control Case
          iv. 2018 Additional Point Source Control Case
           v. 2018 Other Control Strategies
     b. 2018 Sensitivity Scenarios
            i. Sensitivity to Fires
                  1. Alternative fire management practices
           ii. Clean Conditions Scenario
                  1. Natural Emissions Only
                           a. Wildfires, biogenics, wind blown dust
                  2. GEOS-CHEM BCs with no anthropogenic emissions
          iii. Off-Shore Marine Emissions Sensitivity
                  1. Alternative growth and control options for marine vessels
          iv. Effects of NAAQS control strategies
                 1. Effects of 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 attainment/reasonable
                      further progress plans in nonattainment areas
           v. Sensitivity of International Transport
                 1. Alternative growth/control assumptions for Canada and
                      Mexico
          vi. Dust Sensitivity
                 1. Is CMAQ/CAMx model suitable tool for looking at dust
                      given uncertainties in emissions and poor performance
         vii. Other Sensitivities To Be Determined
                 1.
6. REFERENCES

APPENDIX A: WHITE PAPER ON PM SOURCE APPORTIONMENT

				
DOCUMENT INFO