THE NUNN-LUGAR COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION
PROGRAM: DISMANTLING THE FORMER SOVIET UNION’S
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
Charles L. Thornton
Research Seminar
School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland
4 December 2002
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Agenda
Nunn-Lugar Overview & Background
My Qualifications & Research Questions
Assessments
Criticisms of the Nunn-Lugar Program
Measuring Nunn-Lugar’s Effectiveness
Future of the Program
Nunn-Lugar’s Drivers & Fundamental Concepts
Generalizing the Nunn-Lugar Model
Request your ideas, guidance, and ...
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OVERVIEW & PROGRAM BACKGROUND
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Nunn-Lugar
Cooperative Threat Reduction Mission
Provide assistance to eligible states of the
former Soviet Union in order to dismantle
weapons of mass destruction and to
reduce the threat of weapons
of mass destruction
proliferation.
[graphic extracted]
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Research Questions
Have the Nunn-Lugar programs been effective?
are the programs making tangible progress toward their stated
goals and objectives?
Does the Nunn-Lugar cooperative security model have
applications beyond the current FSU WMD programs?
is the program a unique solution to a unique problem/event,
implemented under unique conditions?
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My Qualifications & Research Assets
Over 7 years direct experience on CTR, including over 30 trips
to Russia
Access to the relevant U.S. governmental community
Access to the relevant Russian governmental community
Well known to the U.S. and Russian non-governmental
communities
Increasing interaction with Pakistani and Indian governmental
and NGO officials
UMD: Professors Fetter, Gansler, Schelling, Steinbruner,
Turner, and Quester; Dr. Gallagher; Ms. Harris; Mr.
Leitenberg
CISSM
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The U.S. Government
Nunn-Lugar Programs
Department of Defense
[depicted on following slides]
Department of Energy
(Fissile) Material Protection, Control, & Accounting
Reactor Core Conversion; Nonproliferation; Russian Transition; HEU
Transparency; Plutonium Disposition
Department of State
Science & Technology Centers; Nonproliferation
Others
Department of Commerce
Department of Treasury
~$10 billion total USG obligation authority thru FY 2002
~$10 billion total allocations planned over the next 10 years
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The Former Soviet Union Challenge
[graphic extracted]
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U.S. Department of Defense
CTR Program Objectives
1. Assist Russia in accelerating strategic arms reduction to Strategic Nuclear Arms
Reduction Treaty (START) levels.
2. Enhance safety, security, control, accounting, & centralization of nuclear
weapons & fissile material in the former Soviet Union to prevent their
proliferation & encourage their reduction.
3. Assist Ukraine & Kazakhstan to eliminate START limited systems & weapons
of mass destruction infrastructure.
4. Assist the former Soviet Union to eliminate & prevent proliferation of biological
& chemical weapons & associated capabilities.
5. Encourage military reductions & reform, & reduce proliferation threats in the
former Soviet Union.
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Nunn-Lugar Process
[graphic extracted]
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U.S. DoD-Russian Cooperative Threat Reduction
Overview of Implementation
[graphic extracted]
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Eliminating Delivery Systems
[graphic extracted]
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Securing Warheads & Fissile Material
[graphic extracted]
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ASSESSMENT
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Why Study Nunn-Lugar?
1991: a new idea to address an acute threat
Any historical precedence?
Marshall Plan?
Now: it exists as a policy tool
proliferation is a prominent issue and generally considered to be a
serious security issue
Nunn-Lugar addresses the supply side of the proliferation problem
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Criticisms of Nunn-Lugar
Nunn-Lugar is allowing Russia to sustain – and even expand –
its vast and dispersed WMD complex
Nunn-Lugar funding allows Russia to divert its limited
resources to operational military activities
this, in turn, may actually increase the threat to the U.S. in the long run
The U.S. government bureaucracy that has evolved is not
centrally managed and often works at cross purposes
Some aspects of the program have not begun to address their
core missions
so, after 11 years is there really a threat?
The broader context: reducing Russia’s capabilities while
simultaneously sustaining U.S. offensive and building U.S.
defense capabilities sends a threatening message
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Existing Common Measures of Effectiveness
Financial: Appropriations; Obligation Rates; Disbursement Rates
most commonly used within DoD & USG
least helpful/explanatory
Program Management: Cost, Schedule, Performance
fine for contract evaluation, but what do they say about meeting policy &
programmatic goals?
Scorecard
All MOEs should be based generally on “threat reduction” and
more specifically on “cooperative threat reduction”
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DoD CTR Scorecard
Ukraine, Kazakhstan, & Belarus are Nuclear Weapons Free
[graphic extracted]
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Potential Category: FSU WMD Rollback
Has the existence of the Nunn-Lugar program tangibly reduced
the FSU WMD threat to the U.S.?
How would the threat have changed if there were no Nunn-
Lugar program?
Does the U.S. have greater insight into the FSU WMD
programs?
Has the routinization of interaction between the U.S. and FSU
military, bureaucratic, scientific, and industrial communities
reduced the FSU WMD threat?
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Potential Category: U.S. WMD Defense
Has the U.S. WMD-defense program benefited technically
from the Nunn-Lugar program?
Note: this subject may be politically sensitive. It may be one
that, while important to U.S. national security, proponents
would not want to advertise. Russia has long been concerned
that the U.S. is dismantling Russia’s military capabilities on
the one hand, while simultaneously using what it learned
through Nunn-Lugar to enhance U.S. defensive capabilities.
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Potential Category: FSU Nonproliferation I
FSU Threat Perception
has the existence of the Nunn-Lugar program reduced Russia’s threat
perception, and therefore its need to retain a substantial WMD
capability?
Treaties & Regimes
are the existing international regimes helpful to the Nunn-Lugar
program?
do they contain MOEs that could be applied to the Nunn-Lugar
program?
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Potential Category: FSU Nonproliferation II
Political
have the FSU domestic political conditions changed in favor of the Nunn-Lugar
program?
have the U.S.-FSU international political conditions changed in favor of the
Nunn-Lugar program?
has the Nunn-Lugar program had a positive effect on the FSU domestic political
conditions?
has the Nunn-Lugar program had a positive effect on the U.S.-FSU international
political conditions?
Human
is the FSU WMD scientific community meaningfully engaged?
is the “brain drain” problem being effectively addressed?
are the human elements of the program reducing or sustaining the WMD
threat?
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Potential Category: FSU Nonproliferation III
Culture
has Nunn-Lugar improved the security culture among FSU personnel?
has Nunn-Lugar contributed to an overall awareness of the proliferation
threat among FSU WMD personnel?
FSU International Cooperation
has Nunn-Lugar facilitated a greater U.S. understanding of FSU WMD
cooperation with other states?
has Nunn-Lugar provided a greater U.S. understanding of what types of
WMD capabilities other states possess?
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Potential Category: Security
Physical Security
has Nunn-Lugar measurably improved the security of the FSU’s
existing stocks of WMD materials?
Export Controls
has Nunn-Lugar measurably improved the FSU’s export control
capabilities?
has Nunn-Lugar measurably improved the FSU’s export control
statutes and regulations?
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Potential Category: Programmatic
Has the Nunn-Lugar program met the technical implementation challenges?
are the solutions unique, or generalizable?
Does the U.S. have control of the financing for the critical path parts of each
Nunn-Lugar project?
if Russia is responsible for any show-stopper funding requirements, what assurances
are in place?
Are the program and policy objectives being met in a timely manner?
if not, what are the obstacles to rapid implementation?
if not, have the original objectives evolved appropriately, or are the current
objectives outdated?
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FUTURE
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Preventive Defense Continuum
formal arms confidence & security parallel unilateral
control treaties building measures initiatives
formal cooperative executive agreements
security arrangements & consultative
& military alliances arrangements
CTR: links with above, but something new:
an arrangement through which states work together to address common security
objectives, generally implemented below the formal treaty level, and usually involving the
donation of assistance from one state to another
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Nunn-Lugar’s Drivers
Arms Control Treaty/Agreement Obligations
Safety & Security
Economic Disintegration
Military Security
Political Instability
Other
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Nunn-Lugar’s Principles & Concepts
Cooperation
Expectations
Flexibility/Adaptability
Relationships
Economic and Industrial Development
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Venues for a General Model
Bilateral Programs
Multilateral
Non-Governmental Organizations
Commercial Associations
Scientific Laboratories
International Organizations
International Groups
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Candidate Applications for a General Model
India-Pakistan Supplement to Formal Arms
Control
North Korea
Replacement for Formal Arms
Post-Hostilities Iraq Control
Tactical Nuclear Weapons Beyond WMD Threats
Global Fissile Material HIV/AIDS
Accounting Migration
Environmental Concerns
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Expanding the Nunn-Lugar Concept
Already Underway?
G8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials
of Mass Destruction
Pakistan
North Korea
Yugoslavia
Sense of Congress
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Conclusions
Nunn-Lugar appears to be a policy tool with an established record and
some momentum
but, not without its problems and detractors
Therefore, it deserves academic attention
PLEASE HELP ME GET STARTED!
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