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									       International Railway Safety Conference 2007
                          Goa, India




Risk-based Evaluations and Trends of Railway Casualty
  Accidents on the National Railway of South Korea


                       30th September - 6th October

      Chanwoo Park, Jongbae Wang, Yunok Cho, Hyukjin Yoon, Joonam Park




                                                                         1
Contents



      I    Introduction



     II    Development of Risk Assessment Model



     III   Risk Assessment Results



     IV    Conclusion




                                                  2
1. Introduction
Railway Accident Classification in South
Korea

                           “The Railway Safety Act was established in 2004
                   The railway accident report regulation has been set up in 2006”


          Railway Accident Classification by the Railway Accident Report Regulation
                                       Train collision accident, Train derailment accident, Train fire accident,
                   Train Accident      Other train accidents
   Railway         Level Crossing      Collision or contact between a train and a road vehicle on the railway level
    Traffic           Accident         crossing (excluding collision between a train and people)
   Accident        Railway Traffic
                                       Passenger casualty accident, Worker casualty accident, MOP casualty
                      Casualty         accident (including collision between a train and people in level crossings)
                      Accident
    Train         Rolling stock derailment, Rolling stock damages, Rolling stock fire, Rolling stock
  Operation       separation, Rolling stock rolling, Regulation violation such as SPAD, Railway track
    Delay         failure, Electric supply system failure, Signal system failure, Rolling stock failure, etc
   Accident
   Railway        Railway safety casualty accident, Fire accident, Infrastructure/equipment accident,
    Safety        Construction accident
   Accident
  Disaster


                                                                                                                      3
1. Introduction



Railway Casualty Accident

  The railway casualty accident refers to …..


       Casualty accidents in both railway traffic accidents and safety accidents
        All kinds of accidents that cause Injuries of people on railway premises


      Excluding train derailment, train collision, train fires/explosion
      Excluding collision between a train and a road vehicle on the railway level crossing
      Including suspected suicide
      Including collision between a train and people in level crossings




                                                                                              4
1. Introduction



Railway Casualty Accident Situation on the Main Line


                            Accident Frequency per Year                                          Fatalities and Weighted Injuries (FWI/Year)
                                                             Total Accident Frequency
             1200                                                                                                                                 Total Accident Risk
                                                             Casualty Accident Frequency
                                                                                                 250                                              Casualty Accident Risk
             1100

             1000
                                                                                                 230
              900
  Frequecy




              800                                                                                210




                                                                                           FWI
              700
                                                                                                 190
              600

              500                                                                                      0.1 of a fatality for major injury
                                                                                                 170
              400                                                                                      0.005 of a fatality for minor injury.
              300                                                                                150
                     2000       2001   2002           2003   2004            2005                      2000     2001       2002           2003   2004        2005
                                              Y ear                                                                               Y ear




                    “the number of casualty accidents occupies more than 50% of railway accidents
                                       and 90% of the total risk of railway in South Korea.”




                                                                                                                                                                           5
1. Introduction



Research Objectives


                       Quantitative Risk Evaluation of Casualty Accidents for
                      Passengers, Railway Staffs and MOP (Member of public)


                                                  Risk Analysis



                   Frequency Analysis                                       Consequence Analysis


                                Interaction analysis between hazardous events and
                                                hazardous condition

                             Hazard Identification / Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA)
                                                                                                       WWW
                                                                          Safety regulations,
                                                                          Published sources
                  Accident Analysis
                                                                                         Accident related
                                                                                             reports




                                                                                                             6
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model



Risk Analysis Process




                   Causal Analysis

                                                                                               Demonstration
     Hazard                                Loss             Options             Impact
                                                                                               Of ALARP and
  Identification                          Analysis          Analysis           Analysis
                                                                                                Compliance
                    Consequence
                      Analysis                  - Railtrack, Yellow Book 3: Fundamentals and Guidance, 2000 -




                                                                                                            7
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model



Overall Procedures

                                          Hazard Identification



                                 Defining the Initiating Hazardous Events



                                   Development of Accident Scenarios


                 Railway Accident                                   Railway Accident




                                                                                         Consequence
               Appearance Scenarios                                 Progress Scenarios




                                                                                           Analysis
   Analysis
   Casual




                                               Hazardous
                                                 Events
                     FTA Model                                              ETA Model




                                    Risk Assessment (Loss Analysis)


                                                                                                       8
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model



Initiating Hazardous Events
     Railway
                                                  Initiating Hazardous Events
    Category
                        People
                                      Striking with train, Striking with objects
                    struck/crushed
                                      Trip/slip during train boarding/alighting, Trip/slip by train emergency
 Railway Traffic       Trip/Slip
                                      braking/emergency start
    Casualty
    Accident            Falling       Falling from train, Falling from platform during train boarding/alighting
                    Caught/Dragged    Caught in a train door, Caught between platform and train
                        Others        Electric Shock, Burn, Suffocation
                        People
                                      Striking with rolling stock, Striking with objects
                    struck/crushed
                                      Trip/slip inside station premises, Trip/slip on track/level crossing,
                       Trip/Slip
                                      Trip/slip inside rolling stock , Trip/slip at workplace
                                      Falling from rolling stock, Falling from rolling stock roof, Falling during
                        Falling
                                      elevated work, Falling from railway structure, Falling from platform
  Railway safety
     accident                         Caught in installations inside rolling stock, Caught in railway structure of
                    Caught/Dragged
                                      station, Caught in work equipment/objects
                     Electric Shock   Electric shock in rolling stock and railway structure
                         Burn         Burn in rolling stock and railway structure
                      Suffocation     Suffocation in rolling stock and railway structure
                        Others        Patient occurrence, Assault/threat, Discovery for casualties

                                                                                                                    9
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model



Accident Appearance Scenario Structure

                                                 Hazardous
                                                   Event




                      Hazardous                                               Hazardous
                      Factor 1                                                 Factor X



                                      Third                                                     Third
       Human          Technical                                   Human        Technical
                                      Party                                                     Party
       Factors         Factors                                    Factors       Factors
                                     Hazard                                                    Hazard

            Detailed Hazardous Factors                                  Detailed Hazardous Factors

         The number of ……
                      Hazardous events is 28.
                      Appearance scenarios including hazardous factors is 282.
                      Detailed hazardous factors is 47.
                      Accident appearance scenarios is 13,254.

                                                                                                        10
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model



Accident Appearance Scenario Example




                                          11
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model



Accident Progress Scenario Structure




                            Critical factors influencing accident severity

                        were identified in the accident progress scenarios”

                           Example of the Accident Progress Scenarios




                                                                              12
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model



Accident Analysis Information System

                           Railway Accident Analysis Information System




                                          Statistical Analysis of            Accident Scenario
                                          Accident/Incident Data           Creation/Management
  Accident/Incident Analysis


  1) railway operation data processing part; 2) accident/incident data processing part; 3) hazard list
 management part; 4) hazardous event management part; 5) environment condition management
 part; 6) safety measure management part; 7) statistical analysis part of accident/incident data; 8)
 accident scenario creation/management part

                                                                                                         13
3. Risk Assessment Results



Railway Casualty Accident Data Analysis

   Railway accident data for two years (2004 – 2005) on the main line of South Korea were analyzed.


                       In the case of rare events not available from accident data,
                         each risk were assessed using engineering judgments.


                                     Average Frequency per year: 447.0

                                         Total risk per year: 182.9
                                              Fatalities and Weighted Injuries (FWI)/Year
                      Injured People
                                                    Values              Percentages
                        Passenger                             53.0                    29.0%
                Member of public (MOP)                       115.3                    63.1%
                             Staff                            14.5                     7.9%
                             Total                           182.8                100.0%




                                                                                                      14
3. Risk Assessment Results



Total Risk for Railway Casualty Accidents




                                            15
3. Risk Assessment Results



Average Frequency/yr for Hazardous Events




                                            16
3. Risk Assessment Results



Risk for Hazardous Events




                             17
3. Risk Assessment Results



Risk for Train Striking Events




                                 18
3. Risk Assessment Results



Risk Profile




                             19
4. Conclusion

         Development of risk assessment model for the railway casualty accidents

           Risk model based on the accident scenarios.
           Totally 28 initiating hazardous events
           Accident frequency assessment model using the FTA technique
           Consequence estimation model using the FTA technique

                       Risk assessment for railway casualty accidents

           Total overall risk per year: 182.9
           Risk per year for passenger, MOP, and staff: 53, 115.3, 14.5
           Risk of “people striking with train” event: 86.7%
           Risk of “trespassers on the open tracks between stations” event: 49.2%




      “First step in the risk assessment of railway casualty accidents in Korea
             Application to the definition of the risk reduction measures”


                                                                                     20
Thank you!




             21

								
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