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					Higher Education With
Changing Demographics
           2/3/06
            Will population
              change and
             growth make
              progress in
               education
                harder?
                              1
Topics of discussion
 What is SREB?
 Population growth - Working age
  population
 Education Demographic Shifts -
  Gaps in education attainment,
  young workers, women and
  education
 Enrollment Growth & H.S. Graduates
 Income & Education – student fees,
  financial aid
 Poverty Issues



                                       2
SREB works to achieve 12 Challenge to Lead Goals for Education
in the region.
 1.    All children are ready for the first grade.
 2.    Achievement in the early grades for all groups of students exceeds
       national averages and performance gaps are closed.
 3.    Achievement in the middle grades for all groups of students exceeds
       national averages and performance gaps are closed.
 4.    All young adults have a high school diploma — or, if not, pass the
       GED tests.
 5.    All recent high school graduates have solid academic preparation and
       are ready for postsecondary education and a career.
 6.    Adults who are not high school graduates participate in literacy
       and job-skills training and further education.
 7.    The percentage of adults who earn postsecondary degrees or
       technical certificates exceeds national averages.
 8.    Every school has higher student performance and meets state
       academic standards for all students each year.
 9.    Every school has leadership that results in improved student
       performance — and leadership begins with an effective school
       principal.
 10.   Every student is taught by qualified teachers.
 11.   The quality of colleges and universities is regularly assessed and
       funding is targeted to quality, efficiency and state needs.
 12.   The state places a high priority on an education system of
       schools, colleges and universities that is accountable.                3
 Southeastern Regional Education Board (SREB)
In 2004, 8 of the
SREB states (DE,
FL, GA, NC, SC,
TN, TX & VA) had
rates of population
increase that
exceeded the
national average.
SREB region will
lead the nation in     16 State Members: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida,
growth in the next     Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North
20 years.              Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas,
                       Virginia & West Virginia.

3 of the nations 10 most populous states are SREB states: (TX: 2nd - 22.5 million,
FL: 4th - 17.4 million, GA: 9th - 8.8 million & NC: 11th - 8.5 million).

“SREB states can lead the nation in educational progress.
  Nothing influences a state’s prosperity more than the
  education of its people.”               Challenge to Lead, 2002
                                                                                    4
Population Growth
 More than half (51%) of the nations population growth from 2004 to
 2014 is expected to be in the 16 SREB states – an increase of 13.1
 million.

                 Population Growth Projected and Actual

                                    10.2
         2014 to 2024                               24.5
                                           15.4
         2004 to 2014                                        33.3
                                      13.1
         1994 to 2004                                26.0
                                           14.6
         1984 to 1994                                 27.0

                    0.0      10.0           20.0      30.0      40.0
                                      In Millions
          U.S.   SREB



From 2014 to 2024, the SREB region is projected to grow by an
additional 14.6 million – 54% of the national increase.

                                                                       5
 Working-age population will dip below 50%
By 2025, the                                                                                 SREB States           Children under 5




                                            Percent of Residents by Age
population of the
                                                                          100.0%8.0%      7.0%     7.0%    7.0%
SREB states                                                                                                        School- and
                                                                           80.0%29.0%     28.0%   27.0%    26.0%
working-age adults                                                                                                 college- age (5-24)




                                                       Group
                                                                           60.0%
will make up less
                                                                           40.0%51.0%     53.0%   52.0%    49.0%   Working-age
than half the U.S.
                                                                           20.0%                                   adults (25-64)
population for the                                                              13.0%     12.0%   15.0%    18.0%
first time since 1986.                                                      0.0%                                   Senior citizens (65
                                                                                1994      2004     2015    2025    or older)

                                       Volusia County                                   Children under 5
                                                                                                            Within 10 years, many
  Percent of Residents by




                            100.0%4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%                                                       baby boomers will
                             80.0%23.6% 23.2% 22.4% 21.4%                               School- and
                                                                                                            move into the senior
        Age Group




                                                                                        college- age (5-24)
                             60.0%                                                                          citizen category and
                                  49.5% 50.2% 50.6% 49.8%
                             40.0%                                                      Working-age adults that age group will
                                                                                        (25-64)             become the fastest-
                             20.0%
                                  22.1% 21.7% 22.1% 24.0%                                                   growing proportion of
                              0.0%
                                                                                        Senior citizens (65 the population.
                                  2000 2005 2010 2015
                                                                                        or older)
                                                                                                                                      6
Education Demographic Shifts
Black and Hispanic adults lag in education attainment
      Percent of Adults Age 25 and Older with High School                  The DOE September 2005
               Diplomas or GED Credentials, 2000                           minority enrollment and
                                                                           completion report indicate
                                   63%
      Vol Co                         69%                                   that the FCCS has shown a
                                           83%
                                                                           29.8% increase in Hispanic
                                                               Hispanic
                                54%                                        student enrollment and a
GED



      SREB
                                      70%                      Black
      States                             81%
                                                               White       19.9% increase in African-
                                52%                                        American student
        U.S.                          72%
                                            84%                            enrollment over the last five
                                                                           years.
               0%   20%   40%   60%   80% 100%


                                                         Percent of Adults Age 25 and Older with Bachelor's
                                                                      Degrees or Higher, 2000
  During the same
  period, the FCCS                                                                 12%
  overall student                                            Vol Co                  15%
                                                                                       18%
                                           Bachelor's



                                                                                                         Hispanic
  enrollment grew                                                                  12%
                                                        SREB States                  14%                 Black
  8.4%. The overall                                                                          24%
  completion rate                                                                                        White
                                                                               10%
                                                               U.S.               14%
  increased 17.7%.                                                                             26%

                                                                      0%     10%       20%      30%                 7
 Young Workers Need More Education
In 2004, 15% (49,785) of the Volusia   Number of 25-44 Year-Olds Who have
County Population Age 25 and Over      not Completed High School, 2000
had No Diploma. A decrease from           Escambia
                                                  Santa Rosa
                                                                                   Holmes
                                                                                                 Jackson




2000’s 18% (56,982)
                                                               Okaloosa             Washington                                                                                             Nassau
                                                                          Walton                                Gadsden           Jefferson
                                                                                                 Calhoun                                              Hamilton
                                                                                                                           Leon           Madison
                                                                                                                                                                    Baker                     Duval
                                                                                       Bay                                                                  Columbia
                                                                                                           Liberty     Wakulla                      Suwannee
                                                                                                                                        Taylor
                                                                                                                                                                          Union       Clay          St. Johns
                                                                                                  Gulf                                           Lafayette                   Bradford
                                                                                                            Franklin
                                                                                                                                                             Gilchrist
                                                                                                                                                                          Alachua          Putnam
                                                                                                                                                  Dixie
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Flagler

                                                                                                                                                              Levy
                                                                                                                                                                                  Marion

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Volusia

                                                                                                                                                                         Citrus              Lake
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Seminole
                                                                                                                                                                                Sumter
                                                                                                                                                                         Hernando
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Orange           Brevard
                                                                                                                                                                          Pasco


                                                                                                                                                                         Hillsborough        Polk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Osceola
                                                                                                                                                               Pinellas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Indian River

                                                                                                                                                                           Manatee
                                            674 to 1,028                                                                                                                                   Hardee
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Highlands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Okeechobee
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                St. Lucie

                                          1,028 to 2,662                                                                                                                     Sarasota
                                                                                                                                                                                           DeSoto
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Martin

                                          2,662 to 6,973                                                                                                                                Charlotte           Glades


                                          6,973 to 31,347                                                                                                                                  Lee
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Hendry           Palm Beach


                                         31,347 to 161,899
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Collier                 Broward



                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Miami-Dade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Monroe




 Northwest Volusia - Pierson Area

                                       Florida = 1,066,505 (23.2% of Total 25-44 Population)

                      Street Location - Ormond Beach
                                                                                                                                        Census Tracts
                                                                                                                                        901.02, 832.04
                                                                                                                                        & 808.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8
Women Making Educational Gains




 Population with 6th grade or less                                    Did you know?
     education                        6,537    2.1%   53.8%   46.2%
 Population with 9th grade or less
     education                       23,445    7.4%   50.1%   49.9%

 Population with no diploma          56,982   18.0%   48.5%   51.5%
 Some college but has no degree      76,948   24.3%   46.6%   53.4%                   9
Women Making Educational Gains
          Volusia County, Florida 2004            Population             Male:             Female:
 No schooling completed                                   630     0.2%       421   66.8%       209   33.2%
 Nursery to 4th grade                                   1,913     0.6%     1,306   68.3%       607   31.7%
 5th and 6th grade                                      2,278     0.7%     1,443   63.3%       835   36.7%
 7th and 8th grade                                      6,200     1.9%     3,803   61.3%     2,397   38.7%
 9th grade                                              9,517     2.9%     5,614   59.0%     3,903   41.0%
 10th grade                                            10,280     3.1%     3,852   37.5%     6,428   62.5%
 11th grade                                             9,217     2.8%     6,337   68.8%     2,880   31.2%
 12th grade, no diploma                                 9,750     2.9%     5,213   53.5%     4,537   46.5%
 High school graduate (includes equivalency)          107,980    32.4%    45,054   41.7%    62,926   58.3%

 Some college, less than 1 year                        23,309     7.0%    10,522   45.1%    12,787   54.9%

 Some college, 1 or more years, no degree              54,213    16.3%    25,782   47.6%    28,431   52.4%
 Associate's degree                                    28,590     8.6%    10,784   37.7%    17,806   62.3%
 Bachelor's degree                                     45,416    13.6%    23,347   51.4%    22,069   48.6%
 Master's degree                                       14,897     4.5%     7,022   47.1%     7,875   52.9%
 Professional school degree                             6,343     1.9%     4,680   73.8%     1,663   26.2%
 Doctorate degree                                       2,462     0.7%     1,423   57.8%     1,039   42.2%
                                         Total:       332,995   100.0%   156,603   47.0%   176,392   53.0%
 6th grade or less education                          4,821       1.4%    3,170    65.8%    1,651    34.2%
 9th grade or less education                          20,538      6.2%   12,587    61.3%    7,951    38.7%
 No diploma                                           49,785     15.0%   27,989    56.2%   21,796    43.8%
 Some college no degree                               77,522     23.3%   36,304    46.8%   41,218    53.2%
                                                                                                             10
Enrollment Growth and Graduates
                                                                                  Did you know? Growth in the
                                                                                  public school enrollment is forecast
                                                                                  to continue but at lesser rates for
                                                                                  half of the SREB region (DE, FL,
                                                                                  GA, MD, SC, TN, TX & VA).


Volusia County High School Graduate projections show an increase of 8.6% (322) from 2004 to 2010.


Nationally,
                                                           Volusia County H. S. Graduates & Projected Graduates
public high
school                4,000                                                                                              3,760           3,710       3,739
graduates are         3,500                                                         3,234
                                                                                                    3,418           3,614
                                                                                                                                 3,558
                                                                                                                                                 3,710
                                                                                                            3,417
                                                                                            3,263
expected to           3,000                                                     2,905
                                                                2,718
                                        2,466
grow by 9%            2,500
                                2,480           2,438
                                                        2,598
                                                                        2,656

from 2002 to          2,000

2012. 11%             1,500

growth is             1,000

expected in the         500

SREB states             -
                              1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010-
during the same               1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
period.                                                                                                                                                  11
Income and Education                           Your total annual
 Volusia County 1999                               income from          DBCC      DBCC
 Household Income                                  work                 *2003     *2005
 Less than $10,000
 9.3% (17,264)                                 $9,999 or less            39.6%     47.3%

    Income 1999
                                               $10,000 - $14,999         15.0%      12.9%
    Income < $10,000
         20 - 96
                                               $15,000-$19,999           10.3%      10.9%
         97 - 178
         179 - 277
                                               $20,000-$29,999           12.4%       8.0%
         278 - 404
         405 - 599                             $30,000-$39,999            2.9%       3.5%
Primary Locations:                             $40,000-$49,999            2.9%       0.0%
     Orange City, Holly
     Hill, Daytona                             $50,000-$59,999            1.0%       1.0%
     Beach, Port
     Orange & New                              $60,000-$74,999            0.2%       0.5%
     Smyrna Beach
                                               $75,000-$99,999            0.2%       0.5%
                                               $100,000 or more           0.2%       0.5%
                                               Prefer not to respond     15.3%      14.9%
                                                       Source: Faces of the Future 2003 & 2005

                                                           In 2004, 8.3%- (16,519)
                                                           Volusia County
                                                           households have income
                                                           less than $10,000.


                          Census Tracts 908.02, 812, 817, 821, 822.01, 823.01, 829.01        12
Income Challenges - Affordability
                                Student Fees Fall Report August 2005

                                                               Term                 Increase

Student Fees Per Academic Year                         Fall 2004   Fall 2005    $          %

Residents - State                                         $1,777       $1,915   $138       7.74%

Residents - State - PSAV & Voc Prep                       $1,520       $1,608    $88       5.76%

Residents – DBCC –                                        $1,825       $1,983   $158       8.68%

Residents - DBCC - PSAV & Voc Prep                        $1,565       $1,687   $122       7.84%

Non-Residents - State                                     $6,566       $7,011   $445       6.77%

Non-Residents - State - PSAV & Voc Prep                   $6,173       $6,497   $324       5.24%

Non-Residents – DBCC – Rank                               $6,850       $7,740   $890      12.99%

Non-Residents - DBCC - PSAV & Voc Prep                    $6,258       $6,738   $480       7.67%
 Residents
 DBCC college credit –ranked 5th for percentage increase (tied for 3rd with 6 other
 colleges for actual fee cost for Fall 2005)
 DBCC PSAV & Voc Prep –ranked 4th for percentage increase (tied for 1st with 6
 other colleges for actual fee cost Fall 2005)
 Non Residents
 DBCC college credit –ranked 5th for percentage increase (tied for 2nd with 1 other
 college for actual fee cost for Fall 2005)
 DBCC PSAV & Voc Prep –ranked 3rd for percentage increase (tied for 1st with 5
 other colleges for actual fee cost Fall 2005)
                                                                                               13
 Financing Education
DBCC Financial Aid Awards                                    Increase
              2002               2005                    $                  %
Grants     $11,659,270        $11,729,187               $69,917            0.60%
Loans      $12,559,094        $14,825,102         $2,266,008               15.28%
                                                                            Financial Aid Award
 59.8% rely on financial aid (includes
 grants, scholarships and college loans
                                                             $15,000,000
 25% DBCC students rely on their own
 income or savings                                           $10,000,000
                     Source: Faces of the Future 2005
                                                              $5,000,000
                                                                     $0
                                                                                2002              2005

                                                                              Grants Loans




                                                                                                         14
Poverty Issues                         Estimated Poverty Status Volusia County 2004


Volusia                           75 years and over       3.1%
County                               65 to 74 years           6.0%
Poverty Status                       55 to 64 years                           14.0%
in 1999 was                          45 to 54 years                        11.7%
11.6%                                35 to 44 years                 8.3%
(49,907)                             25 to 34 years                                16.6%
                                     18 to 24 years                         13.0%
                                   16 and 17 years        3.2%
                                          15 years    1.0%
                                     12 to 14 years          5.0%
                                      6 to 11 years                   10.1%
 Census Tracts: 817, 821, & 906             5 years   1.0%
                                     Under 5 years               7.1%

                                                  0.0%    5.0%   10.0% 15.0% 20.0%


                                                         Northeast &
                                                         Southwest Volusia
                                                         Census
                                                         Tracts/Street
                                                         Locations –
                                                         DeLand, Holly Hill
                                                         & Daytona Beach
                                                         Areas
                                                                                           15
                 Be
                     ve
                         rly
                             Be
                Da                ac
                   yt                 h,
                      on                  Fl
                          a




                                                        0.0%
                                                                      5.0%
                                                                                                      15.0%
                                                                                                                  20.0%
                                                                                                                                 25.0%
                                                                                                                                           30.0%
                                                                                                                                                   35.0%
                                                                                                                                                             40.0%
                                                                                                                                                                     45.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                     50.0%




                                             or
                             Be                 id
      De                          ac               a
                                      h,




                                                                                   10.0% 8.7%
         La                               Fl
            nd             De                or
                                                id                                                                             22.5%
                So              Ba                 a
                   ut               ry
                                                                                                                                   23.6%

                      hw                ,F
                           es              lo
                              tC              r id
                                   DP              a


                                                                                6.8%6.9%
                                        ,F
                           De               lo
                                              rid
                                                                                                                       19.0%




                  Fl
                                lto
                                   na              a
                     ag
                                                                                                                                                                             45.7%




                        le              ,F
                           rB              lo
                                              r id
                                                                                                                17.2%




                                ea
                                    ch             a
                                        ,F
                          Ho               lo
                                              rid
                                                                             8.1%9.2%




                              lly                  a
                                   Hi
                      M               ll,
                                                                                    10.9%




                         ar               Fl
           No               in               or
                                               id
                                                                                        5.6%




               rth             el
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                                                                                                               16.5%




                       La                 Fl
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                                                                                           9.7%




                                                id
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                                                               0.0%




                     Or               P,
         on             an                Fl
           d-               ge               or
                                                 id
                                                                                            10.8%




             By
                                                    a
                                                                                                                                                                                             Percent below poverty level:




                 -T               Ci
                                     ty
                    he
                                                                                                11.8%




                       -S               ,F
                            ea             lo
                                              rid
                                                                                                    14.4%




                                 CD                a
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                                      P,
                                          Fl
                           Pi                or
                                                                               6.1%




                               er                id
                                  so                a
                                      n,
                                                                                   9.8%




                    Po
                        rt                Fl
                                             or
                            Or                  id
                                                                                       7.5%




                 So             an
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                    ut
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                                                                                                                                                     33.6%




                                        ,F
                          Da               lo
                               yt             r id
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                                                                                 7.6%




                                          Fl
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                                                                             5.1% 5.4%




                                 AL                a
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                                                                                           10.7%




                                         De
                                             La
                                                                                               9.4%




                                                  nd
                                                                                                                   18.3%




16
Summary
                Progress
  More students are staying in college and graduating.
  Black and Hispanic students accounted for almost half
   of the total increase in bachelor’s degrees in the SREB
   region.
  The costs of college are now a bigger challenge for
   middle- and lower- income students.
  Rising costs have created an affordability gap – or
   shortfall – for many families.
  Demographic shifts mean that there will be many more
   middle- and lower- income young people seeking a way
   to attend college in the future. This trend, if continued,
   points to a coming collision between population
   changes and affordable colleges.




                                                                17
 Summary
                          Facts
 By 2018, Hispanic students are expected to account for 29% of public hs
  grads. White students, who represented 62% in 2002, will be 45%.
 Progress in education could come to an historically unprecedented halt
  if the fastest-growing racial/ethnic groups do not achieve much higher
  education levels than are now the case.
 Already in nearly every SREB state, hundreds of thousands of young,
  working-age adults have no high school diplomas or GED credentials.
  Those number will grow dramatically if present levels continue.
 Black and Hispanic students will represent nearly half of the region’s
  hs grads in the future.
 Population growth is expected to be the greatest for precisely those
  racial/ethnic groups who have been the least likely to go to college and
  who face the largest affordability gaps in paying to attend. Many more
  young, undereducated, working-age adults are on the way unless we
  change the path that we are on.
 Jobs in the U.S. for people with associate’s degrees are projected to
  increase by 26% (1.3 million) by 2012 and for those with bachelor’s
  degrees, by 20% (3.6 million) – both surpassing the overall U.S. job
  growth rate.
 Government budget pressures to fund social welfare programs such as
  Medicare and Medicaid are one of the growing challenges to education
  progress.

                                                                             18
Sources used for this presentation:

U.S. Census Bureau 2000
American Community Survey 2004 Estimates
Faces of the Future Survey Results 2005
Division of Community Colleges
       Minority Enrollment Report September 2005
       Fall 2005 Student Fees Report August 2005
SREB Fact Book on Higher Education June 2005

Need more information:
              Contact: Cassandra Myers
                       Office of Institutional Research
                       Daytona Beach Community College
              E-mail: myersca@dbcc.edu
              Phone: 386-506-3691
              Location: Building 100, Room 413L
                                                          19