Number of pupils on roll actual and forecast for four years by dfhrf555fcg

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									Number of pupils on roll actual and forecast for four years (English medium)

                                 Numbers on roll
                                 Actual   Forecast
 School name                     2008/09 09/10            10/11     11/12      12/13
 Caerau Infant                   145      132             136       144        152
 Cwrt yr Ala Junior              208      216             215       212        202
 Trelai Primary                  301      299             304       315        321
 Millbank Primary                114      101             92        92         78
 Hywel Dda Primary               310      313             308       312        325
 Herbert Thompson                304      320             334       361        372
 Windsor Clive Primary           315      302             299       290        286
 Sub total                       1697     1683            1688      1726       1736
 St Fagan’s CiW                  201      199             200       198        196
 St Francis RC                   193      191             185       186        175
 Total                           2091     2073            2073      2110       2107

      Capacity and school admission numbers (English medium)

                                        Current                     Proposed
                                 Capacity   Admission         Capacity   Admission
 School name                                Number                       Number
 New Primary                     0          0                 210        30
 Caerau Infant                   208        69                0          0
 Cwrt Yr Ala                     210        52                0          0
 Millbank                        171        30                210        30
 Trelai                          361        58                420        60
 Hywel Dda                       404        60                330        45
 Windsor Clive                   420        60                420        60
 Herbert Thompson                525        75                525        75
 Sub Total                       2299       404               2115       300
 St Fagan’s                      209        30                209        30
 St Francis                      386        55                386        55
 Total                           2894       489               2710       385

Projections of demand for Welsh medium primary education set out below illustrate the need
to provide an enlarged permanent site for the current “starter class” at Holy Family by 2010.
Ysgol Coed Y Gof and Ysgol Pwll Coch are the nearest Welsh medium primary schools to the
proposed site.

                                             Numbers on roll
                                             Actual Forecast
 School name                    Capacity     08/09 09/10 10/11               11/12     12/13
 Holy Family                    30           15     33       63              93        123
 Coed Y Gof                     389          329    340      356             367       378
 Pwll Coch                      420          370    375      378             388       386
 Total                          839          714    748      797             848       887

Although there is currently some space in the older cohorts in the two long established
schools, recent application rates, particularly for Pwll Coch have been at or in excess of the
admission number. Some accommodation at Ysgol Coed Y Gof is demountable.

Nursery places
The local authority is under a duty to provide a part time nursery place to children from the
start of term following their 3rd birthday. The proposed English medium primary school to be
provided on the site of the current Cwrt Yr Ala Junior School will offer 80 part time nursery
places. Currently Caerau Nursery School provides 80 part time nursery places and Caerau
Infant school provides 48 part time nursery places. Subject to the outcome of this proposal
the local authority intends to publish a proposal to provide 52 nursery places at Millbank. The
tables below show the current number of nursery pupils and the current and proposed
number of nursery places. It should be noted that the figures relate to all pupils who are
entitled to nursery education and therefore cover more than one age group.

      Nursery places (Welsh medium)
                                   Nursery pupils              Part time          Part time
                                   attending                   nursery            nursery
                                   maintained                  places             places
                                   nursery                     available          proposed
                                   provision                   currently
                                   in April 2009
 Ely & Caerau Children’s Centre WM 64                          64                 64
 Welsh medium primary              0                           0                  26
 Total                             64                          64                 90

       Nursery places (English medium)
                              Nursery pupils      Part time         Part time     Potential
                              attending           nursery           nursery       total
                              maintained          places            places        places if
                              nursery             available         proposed      required
                              provision in        currently
                              April 2009*
 Ely & Caerau Children’s      76 [87]             80                80            80
 Centre EM
 Caerau Nursery               75 [84]             80                0             0
 Caerau Infant                30 [32]             48                0             0
 Cwrt Yr Ala                  0                   0                 0             0
 Millbank                     0                   0                 52            52
 Trelai                       60 [59]             64                90            90
 Hywel Dda                    68 [76]             64                64            106
 Windsor Clive                88 [104]            96                96            108
 Herbert Thompson             80 [82]             80                80             76
 New primary                  0                   0                 80            80
 Total                        477 [ 524]          512               542           592
       * projected numbers shown in square brackets

Projections noted above in square brackets represent weighted averages for nursery numbers
which estimate the number of English medium community nursery school places required in
the next few years. Expected demand could be met if the proposal is implemented and the
local authority also establishes nursery provision at Millbank and expands provision at Trelai.
Without the proposed provision at Millbank demand could still be met by expanding provision
at Trelai, Hywel Dda and Windsor Clive. There is currently sufficient spare capacity at these
schools that would enable this to be achieved.

								
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