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You Decide:
BUY
Fair Value per Share
FCFF Analysis
Sample Company (SAM) This model calculates the fair market
Historical Year Ended 2003 $ 237.0 2004 $ 246.9 2005 $ 272.2 2006 $ 338.0 2007 $ 387.4
$14.2
Potential
Total Revenue (IS)
% growth rate - COGS (IS)
n/a 145.9 61.6% 91.0 38.4% 169.4 71.5% (78.4) -33.1% (20.3) 25.9% (58.1) -24.5%
4.2% 134.2 54.4% 112.7 45.6% 132.1 53.5% (19.5) -7.9% 0.2 -0.8% (19.7) -8.0%
10.3% 131.0 48.1% 141.1 51.9% 139.7 51.3% 1.5 0.5% (0.1) -5.6% 1.6 0.6%
24.2% 150.6 44.5% 187.5 55.5% 156.0 46.2% 31.5 9.3% (0.1) -0.3% 31.5 9.3%
14.6% 162.6 42.0% 224.8 58.0% 199.8 51.6% 24.9 6.4% 1.3 5.3% 23.6 6.1%
63%
WACC
Wiki Wealth: Cost of % of revenue Goods Sold
% of revenue
Gross Profit (IS)
9%
RATIO: POG Wiki Price / OCF / Growth Wealth.com: Price / Operating
2.3 3.4
RATIO: PFG Wiki Price/FCF/Growth Wealth.com: Price/ Free Cash Flow /
Key Inputs Stock Symbol Valuation Date LT Growth Rate Corp Tax Rate Safety Margin Discount Rate Shares Out. Stock Price Debt Capital SAM 1/1/2008 3.0% 40.0% 50.0% 9.0% 151.2 8.7 78.3 1,397.0
Wiki Wealth.com: % of revenue Total Operating Wiki EBIT (oper profits) (IS) Wealth.com: % of revenue Earnings Before Expected - Taxes (IS) corporate % of EBIT tax rate. Wiki See NOPAT Wealth.com: % of revenue Net Operating
- Total Oper Exp (IS) FCF Analysis
Company Name Sample Company (SAM)
Wiki Discount Rate Wealth.com: Weighted Wiki Risk Free Rate 4.5% Free Cash Flow Average Wealth Wiki Required Ret (Debt) 5.5% % of revenue Cost of .com: Wikiwe Wealth Equity Risk Prem 5.0% 30yr alth.co Wikiwe .com: Represents m: alth.co the 30yr Rate m: decrease in applica value of a
Wiki (CF) Wealth.com: % of revenue Depreciation WikiWealth.c and 1 - CapEx (CF) Wiki om: Capital % of revenue Wiki Wealth Expenditures Wealth Wiki .com: Current Assets (BS) .com: Wealth Enter Wiki - Excess Cash (BS) Typicall .com: Wealth - Current Liab (BS) 40% .com:is + ST Debt (BS) Conser Working Capital WikiW % of revenue ealth.c om: - WC Only Investment (BS) % of Interest revenue
+ D&A
60.4 25.5% 19.0 8.0% 134.3 61.4 69.6 0.2 3.4 1.5%
24.1 9.7% 11.6 4.7% 141.7 78.5 62.0 0.1 1.3 0.5%
25.6 9.4% 14.3 5.3% 133.6 51.8 77.7 9.0 13.2 4.8%
27.4 8.1% 23.4 6.9% 197.1 97.5 63.1 2.7 39.2 11.6%
34.7 9.0% 32.8 8.5% 161.5 61.7 164.2 73.9 9.4 2.4%
n/a
(2.2) -0.9%
11.9 4.4% 0.9 0.3%
26.0 7.7% 9.6 2.8%
(29.8) -7.7% 55.3 14.3%
n/a n/a
(5.1) -2.1%
Country Risk Prem Beta % Capital (Debt) Req Return (Debt) % Capital (Equity) Req Return (Equity) Debt Equity WACC (rounded)
0.0% 1.00 5.6% 3.3% 94.4% 9.5% 0.2% 9.0% 9.0%
Wiki Wealth Wiki .com: Wikiwe Wealth 30yr alth.co Wikiwe .com: Represents Present Value Factor m: alth.co the 30yr Wiki Rate m: Wealth decrease in Present Value of Free Cash Flow applica .com: value of a Found
Per Share Value
Value of total firm, + Cash debt Debt plus - Interest Bearing Debt, Preferred and Minority Interest equity. assumed to Equity Value (Net Present Value) equal fair Divide: Shares Outstanding value.
Invested Capital (Equity and Debt) Value Fair Value per Share
An advance free cash flow to the firm template measures the value of a public company based on the projection of cash flow discounted to the current date. This model offers the most detailed projections and assumption of future cash flows.
ompany (SAM) - January 1, 2008
Projected Year Ending 2008 $ 406.7 2009 $ 427.1 2010 $ 448.4 2011 $ 470.9 2012 $ 494.4 2013 $ 519.1 2014 $ 545.1 2015 $ 572.3 2016 $ 600.9 Terminal $ 619.0
5.0% 142.4 35.0% 264.4 65.0% 71.2 17.5% 193.2 47.5% 77.3 40.0% 115.9 28.5%
5.0% 149.5 35.0% 277.6 65.0% 74.7 17.5% 202.9 47.5% 81.1 40.0% 121.7 28.5%
5.0% 157.0 35.0% 291.5 65.0% 78.5 17.5% 213.0 47.5% 85.2 40.0% 127.8 28.5%
5.0% 164.8 35.0% 306.1 65.0% 82.4 17.5% 223.7 47.5% 89.5 40.0% 134.2 28.5%
5.0% 173.0 35.0% 321.4 65.0% 86.5 17.5% 234.8 47.5% 93.9 40.0% 140.9 28.5%
5.0% 181.7 35.0% 337.4 65.0% 90.8 17.5% 246.6 47.5% 98.6 40.0% 147.9 28.5%
5.0% 190.8 35.0% 354.3 65.0% 95.4 17.5% 258.9 47.5% 103.6 40.0% 155.3 28.5%
5.0% 200.3 35.0% 372.0 65.0% 100.2 17.5% 271.9 47.5% 108.7 40.0% 163.1 28.5%
5.0% 210.3 35.0% 390.6 65.0% 105.2 17.5% 285.4 47.5% 114.2 40.0% 171.3 28.5%
3.0% 216.6 35.0% 402.3 65.0% 108.3 17.5% 294.0 47.5% 117.6 40.0% 176.4 28.5%
20.3 5.0% 8.1 2.0%
21.4 5.0% 8.5 2.0%
22.4 5.0% 9.0 2.0%
23.5 5.0% 9.4 2.0%
24.7 5.0% 9.9 2.0%
26.0 5.0% 10.4 2.0%
27.3 5.0% 10.9 2.0%
28.6 5.0% 11.4 2.0%
30.0 5.0% 12.0 2.0%
12.4 2.0% 12.4 2.0%
61.0 15.0%
64.1 15.0%
67.3 15.0%
70.6 15.0%
74.2 15.0%
77.9 15.0%
81.8 15.0%
85.8 15.0%
90.1 15.0%
51.6 12.7% 76.5 18.8%
3.1 0.7% 131.5 30.8%
3.2 0.7% 138.1 30.8%
3.4 0.7% 145.0 30.8%
3.5 0.7% 152.2 30.8%
3.7 0.7% 159.8 30.8%
3.9 0.7% 167.8 30.8%
4.1 0.7% 176.2 30.8%
4.3 0.7% 185.0 30.8%
4.4 0.7% 172.0 27.8%
0.917 70.2
0.842 110.7
0.772 106.6
0.708 102.7
0.650 98.9
0.596 95.3
0.547 91.8
0.502 88.4
0.460 85.2
0.460 1,319.8
2,169.6 61.7 78.3 2,152.9 151.2 $ 14.2 $ 14.2 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0%
Per Share Value: Discount Rate vs. LT Growth Rate 0.0% 14.6 12.7 11.2 9.9 9.0 1.0% 16.2 13.7 11.9 10.5 9.4 2.0% 18.3 15.2 12.9 11.2 9.9 3.0% 21.5 17.2 14.2 12.2 10.6 4.0% 26.9 20.1 16.1 13.4 11.4 5.0% 37.6 25.1 18.9 15.1 12.6 6.0% 69.7 35.0 23.5 17.7 14.2