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You Decide:
BUY Sample Company (SAM) -
This model
Fair Value per Share FCFF Analysis Historical Year Ended
calculates
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
$14.2 the fair
market
Total Revenue (IS) $ 237.0 $ 246.9 $ 272.2 $ 338.0 $ 387.4
% growth rate n/a 4.2% 10.3% 24.2% 14.6%
Potential
Wiki Wealth:
- COGS (IS) 145.9 134.2 131.0 150.6 162.6
63% Cost of
% of revenue
Goods Sold
61.6% 54.4% 48.1% 44.5% 42.0%
Gross Profit (IS) 91.0 112.7 141.1 187.5 224.8
WACC % of revenue 38.4% 45.6% 51.9% 55.5% 58.0%
9% Wiki
- Total Oper Exp (IS)
Wealth.com:
% of revenue
Total
169.4
71.5%
132.1
53.5%
139.7
51.3%
156.0
46.2%
199.8
51.6%
Operating
Wiki
RATIO: POG EBIT (oper profits) (IS) (78.4) (19.5) 1.5 31.5 24.9
Wiki Wealth.com:
Price / OCF / Growth % of revenue -33.1% -7.9% 0.5% 9.3% 6.4%
Wealth.com: Earnings
2.3Price /
Operating
Expected
Before
- Taxes (IS)
corporate
% of EBIT
tax rate.
(20.3)
25.9%
0.2
-0.8%
(0.1)
-5.6%
(0.1)
-0.3%
1.3
5.3%
Wiki
See
RATIO: PFG NOPAT (58.1) (19.7) 1.6 31.5 23.6
Wiki Wealth.com:
Price/FCF/Growth % of revenue -24.5% -8.0% 0.6% 9.3% 6.1%
Wealth.com: Net
3.4 Price/ Free
Cash Flow /
Operating
FCF Analysis
Wiki
Key Inputs + D&A (CF) 60.4 24.1 25.6 27.4 34.7
Wealth.com:
% of revenue 25.5% 9.7% 9.4% 8.1% 9.0%
Depreciation
Stock Symbol SAM
WikiWealth.c
and
Company Name
Sample Company (SAM) 1 - CapEx (CF) 19.0 11.6 14.3 23.4 32.8
Wiki om: Capital
Valuation Date 1/1/2008 % of revenue 8.0% 4.7% 5.3% 6.9% 8.5%
Wealth Expenditures
Wiki
LT Growth Rate 3.0%
Wiki
.com:
Wealth -
Corp Tax Rate 40.0% Current Assets (BS) 134.3 141.7 133.6 197.1 161.5
.com:
Wealth
Wiki
Enter
Safety Margin 50.0% - Excess Cash (BS) 61.4 78.5 51.8 97.5 61.7
.com:
Typicall
Wealth
Discount Rate 9.0% - Current Liab (BS) 69.6 62.0 77.7 63.1 164.2
.com:is
40%
Shares Out. 151.2 + ST Debt (BS) 0.2 0.1 9.0 2.7 73.9
Conser
Stock Price 8.7 Working Capital 3.4 1.3 13.2 39.2 9.4
WikiW
Debt 78.3 % of revenue 1.5% 0.5% 4.8% 11.6% 2.4%
ealth.c
Capital 1,397.0
om:
Wiki - WC
Only Investment (BS) n/a (2.2) 11.9 26.0 (29.8)
Discount Rate % of
Interest revenue -0.9% 4.4% 7.7% -7.7%
Wealth.com:
Weighted Wiki
Risk Free Rate 4.5% Free Cash Flow n/a (5.1) 0.9 9.6 55.3
Average Wealth
Wiki
Required Ret (Debt) 5.5% % of revenue n/a -2.1% 0.3% 2.8% 14.3%
Cost of Wikiwe
Wealth
.com:
Equity Risk Prem 5.0%
Wikiwe
.com: Represents
30yr
alth.co
30yr
m:
alth.co the
Rate
m: decrease in
applica value of a
Wiki
Wealth
Wiki
Wealth
.com:
Wikiwe
alth.co
Wikiwe
.com: Represents
30yr
Country Risk Prem 0.0% Present Value Factor
30yr
alth.co the
m:
Wiki
Beta 1.00
Rate
m:
Wealth decrease in
Present Value of Free Cash Flow
.com: value of a
applica
% Capital (Debt) 5.6%
Found
Req Return (Debt) 3.3% Per Share Value
Value of
% Capital (Equity) 94.4% Invested Capital (Equity and Debt) Value
total firm,
Req Return (Equity) 9.5% + Cash
debt
Debt plus
- Interest Bearing Debt, Preferred and Minority Interest
equity.
assumed to
Debt 0.2% Equity Value (Net Present Value)
equal fair
Equity 9.0% Divide: Shares Outstanding
value.
WACC (rounded) 9.0% Fair Value per Share
An advance free cash flow to the firm template measures the value of
a public company based on the projection of cash flow discounted to
the current date. This model offers the most detailed projections and
assumption of future cash flows.
ompany (SAM) - January 1, 2008
Projected Year Ending
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Terminal
$ 406.7 $ 427.1 $ 448.4 $ 470.9 $ 494.4 $ 519.1 $ 545.1 $ 572.3 $ 600.9 $ 619.0
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0%
142.4 149.5 157.0 164.8 173.0 181.7 190.8 200.3 210.3 216.6
35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%
264.4 277.6 291.5 306.1 321.4 337.4 354.3 372.0 390.6 402.3
65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0%
71.2 74.7 78.5 82.4 86.5 90.8 95.4 100.2 105.2 108.3
17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5%
193.2 202.9 213.0 223.7 234.8 246.6 258.9 271.9 285.4 294.0
47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5%
77.3 81.1 85.2 89.5 93.9 98.6 103.6 108.7 114.2 117.6
40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
115.9 121.7 127.8 134.2 140.9 147.9 155.3 163.1 171.3 176.4
28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5%
20.3 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.7 26.0 27.3 28.6 30.0 12.4
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0%
8.1 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.4
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
61.0 64.1 67.3 70.6 74.2 77.9 81.8 85.8 90.1
15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
51.6 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4
12.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
76.5 131.5 138.1 145.0 152.2 159.8 167.8 176.2 185.0 172.0
18.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 27.8%
0.917 0.842 0.772 0.708 0.650 0.596 0.547 0.502 0.460 0.460
70.2 110.7 106.6 102.7 98.9 95.3 91.8 88.4 85.2 1,319.8
2,169.6 Per Share Value: Discount Rate vs. LT Growth Rate
61.7 $ 14.2 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
78.3 7.0% 14.6 16.2 18.3 21.5 26.9 37.6 69.7
2,152.9 8.0% 12.7 13.7 15.2 17.2 20.1 25.1 35.0
151.2 9.0% 11.2 11.9 12.9 14.2 16.1 18.9 23.5
10.0% 9.9 10.5 11.2 12.2 13.4 15.1 17.7
$ 14.2 11.0% 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.4 12.6 14.2