Tornados and Climate Change

							Tornados and Climate Change


        Michael Pateman
             And
         Drew Vankat
               Introduction

• Investigation of tornadic frequency and
  magnitude in the United States in relation to
  the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and US
  climate change
               Hypothesis
• Global warming, along with increased El Nino
   and La Nina cycles mean more plentiful and
              powerful tornadoes



   • But…What role does technology play in
            increased detection?
              Research Relevance
• If a relationship with climate cycles can be found, perhaps emergency
  funding can be set aside in advance for victims

• Findings can be translated to other weather phenomena such as
  thunderstorms, flooding, or hurricanes

• Authorities can take necessary precautions to minimize economic and
  human losses

• Provide a more convincing argument for the need to rethink the way
  we treat our environment.
             What is a tornado?
• An intense, rotating column of air extending from the base
  of a thunderstorm cloud to the ground.




                          www.spc.noaa.gov
                         ENSO
• The ENSO (El Nino/
  Southern Oscillation) cycle
  refers to the coherent,
  large-scale fluctuation of
  ocean temperatures,
  rainfall, atmospheric
  circulation, vertical motion
  and air pressure across the
  tropical Pacific.




http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
             What is El Nino?
• A disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in
  the Tropical Pacific

• Development of abnormally warm sea surface
  temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific

• Consequences can include increased rainfall in
  some areas and extreme drought in others
            What is La Nina?
• Characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures
  in the Equatorial Pacific

• USA: warmer southwest winters, colder Northwest
       Materials and methods
• Data retrieved on tornado and ENSO
  activity

• Downloaded into Excel, Statview, and
  Cricket Graph
   Tornado Frequency by Decade

Spearman Rank Correlation p-values:
Texas-Nebraska p=.1096
Texas-Ohio p=.0719
Nebraska-Ohio p=.0719
Frequency of Tornadoes in El-Nino Years



Spearman Rank Correlation p-values:
Texas-Nebraska p=.4902
Texas-Ohio p=.1837
Texas-USA p=.0170
Nebraska-Ohio p=1983
Nebraska-USA p=.0785
Ohio-USA p=.1223
  Tornado Frequency in non-El-Nino Years

Spearman Rank Correlation p-values:
Texas-Nebraska p=.1096
Texas-Ohio p=.1615
Texas-USA p=.0719
Nebraska-Ohio p=.3173
Nebraska-USA p=.2301
Ohio-USA p=.0719
Tornado Frequency in La Nina Years

Spearman Rank Correlation p-values:
Texas-Nebraska p=.0422
Texas-Ohio p=.1474
Texas-USA p=.0376
Nebraska-Ohio p=.1117
Nebraska-USA p=.0751
Ohio-USA p=.0438
                 Tornado Frequency in
                  non-La-Nina Years

Spearman Rank Correlation p-values:
Texas-Nebraska p=.0719
Texas-Ohio p=.0719
Texas-USA p=.0455
Nebraska-Ohio p=.1096
Nebraska-USA p=.0719
Ohio-USA p=.0719
Texas Tornado Frequency
         35 0

         30 0

         25 0
Co unt




         20 0

         15 0

         10 0

          50

            0
            19 50   19 60   19 70           19 80   19 90   20 00

                                    Ye ar
Nebraska Tornado Frequency

           12 0

           10 0

            80
  Co unt




            60

            40

            20

              0
              19 50   19 60   19 70        19 80   19 90   20 00
                                      Ye ar
Ohio Tornado Frequency
          70

          60

          50
 Co unt




          40

          30

          20

          10

           0
           19 50   19 60   19 70           19 80   19 90   20 00

                                   ye ar
                  Data
• http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-
  win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms
• All Tornado Data downloaded from this
  site.
        Tentative conclusions
• Overall increase in tornado frequency

• P-values indicate little relationship in
  frequency for El-Nino years

• P-Values indicate a relationship in
  frequency for La-Nina years
           Still To Come…
• Spearman Rank Correlations for tornado
  frequency per year in each state

• Analyze magnitude
           Future Research
• Incorporate climate change and global
  warming

• Any questions or suggestions?