Future Options for Public Transport Presentation to Bradford Regeneration Academy 22 Feb 2010 Matt Brunt 20 years time… –More of the same? Or… – Something completely different? Somewhere in between • What are the drivers that will change / reinforce public transport supply and demand? • What are the challenges and opportunities that we will have to face? • What might it look and feel like? • What does this mean for place makers? Drivers - demographics • Demographic changes – – Older population, but more mobile than before (and more likely to be car owners) – Younger and poorer people still likely to be dependent on public transport – Commuting and other markets will continue to be different Drivers - Economic • Pricing of carbon and impact of Peak Oil – Higher cost of fossil fuels to take account of carbon pricing and availability of fossil fuels • Costs of motoring – Relative cost of motoring continues to fall in short term at least, where public transport costs do not CO2 emissions by mode Source: CfIT Report Transport and Climate Change, data from Defra (2007c) Guidelines to Defra's GHG conversion factors for company reporting But cars getting more efficient… Costs of motoring getting relatively cheaper… Changes in the real cost of transport and in income 140 130 120 110 Index: 1997=100 100 90 80 Disposable income Rail fares 70 Bus and coach fares Vehicle running costs 60 All motoring 50 Purchase of vehicle 40 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Drivers - Cultural • People travelling further and for longer • Personalisation – choice, „here and now‟ expectations (and no waiting) • Demand outstripping supply / capacity of public sector to meet demands (replicated across public services) • On demand services – driven by IT We are travelling further (and for longer) 180 NB: Last recession; c 5% reduction Passenger kms 160 140 (1976=100) 120 Index 100 Average trip length 80 60 40 20 0 1955 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 Source: DfT 2007 Rail White Paper Evidence Pack from Transport Statistics GB 2006 and National Travel Survey Run a bath with your iPhone Run a bath with your iPhone Metro, Thursday, June 24, 2009 “After a sweaty journey home at the end of a dog of a day all you want is a long, hot bath. Now, thanks to iPhone add-on the Bath-o-matic you can get the tub filled, complete with bubbles, before you walk in the door. It sends a signal to a £4,000 hi- tech set of taps which run the perfect soak. London-based Unique Automation showcased the Wallace and Gromit-style device at a trade show this week.” Challenges • Motoring will still be the mode of choice for most of the population. Challenges • Inability of public transport to serve the majority of existing journey patterns (even with massive investment) • Conflicting demands on policy – sustainable development vs consumer led / choice approaches • Social inclusion – poorest will still rely most on public transport Opportunities • Congestion – not going away, even with electric cars; – more spreading of peak travel • Carbon – need for higher densities in development increases demand for public transport; – efficiencies of road space • Smarter choices and more integration • Technology – smart stuff – e.g. oyster Congestion – DfT forecasts 30% increase in veh/km by 2025 (Dec 08) Strong relationship between petrol price and road use Source: Delivering a Sustainable Transport System, DfT 2008 Smarter Choices • Smarter choices will mean more options (not just PT) – walking, cycling, car sharing etc • Sustainable Travel Towns initiative points to large behavioural changes for relatively small amounts of funding Integration • Quality Contracts – West Yorkshire frontrunner – aim to produce franchised bus network to improve marketing, coordination, pricing • Benefits of integration – proven elsewhere Technology • User demand for technology solutions • Success of Oyster in London • Mobile technologies gathering pace and more widespread usage Public Transport in the future will need to be… • Demand responsive – thinking about the end-use of the service rather than the infrastructure / operations that support it • Offer value – in terms of price or quality (or both!) • Smarter – through the choices that are made; and by technology • Low Carbon • Inclusive – meeting the needs of the non-car owners What does this mean for place- makers? Some thoughts… • Reconcile consumer preferences with sustainable transit orientated development! • Public transport more integral to the planning of places and services? • Short / medium term pressures to deliver development on greenfield / low density sites may weaken demand for public transport • Long term changes to increase density of development and therefore increase public transport demand still a goal worth aspiring to Conclusions • Difficult to see need for Public Transport reducing – congestion and accessibility issues still with us • Carbon a big driver and Public Transport has role to play • But delivery may be very different… • Smart technology driving demand responsive services • Still a big question over how paid for – road pricing?