The future of public transport

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					   Future Options for Public
           Transport
Presentation to Bradford Regeneration
                Academy
             22 Feb 2010

            Matt Brunt
20 years time…



     –More of the
      same?
Or…


      – Something
        completely
        different?
Somewhere in between


 • What are the drivers that will change /
   reinforce public transport supply and
   demand?
 • What are the challenges and
   opportunities that we will have to face?
 • What might it look and feel like?
 • What does this mean for place makers?
Drivers - demographics


  • Demographic changes –
    – Older population, but more mobile than
      before (and more likely to be car owners)
    – Younger and poorer people still likely to be
      dependent on public transport
    – Commuting and other markets will continue
      to be different
Drivers - Economic


  • Pricing of carbon and impact of Peak Oil
    – Higher cost of fossil fuels to take account
      of carbon pricing and availability of fossil
      fuels
  • Costs of motoring
    – Relative cost of motoring continues to fall
      in short term at least, where public
      transport costs do not
CO2 emissions by mode




 Source: CfIT Report Transport and Climate Change, data from
 Defra (2007c) Guidelines to Defra's GHG conversion factors for
                       company reporting
But cars getting more
efficient…
Costs of motoring getting
relatively cheaper…

                                                         Changes in the real cost of transport and in income

                    140


                    130

                    120

                    110
  Index: 1997=100




                    100

                    90

                    80
                                 Disposable income
                                 Rail fares
                    70
                                 Bus and coach fares
                                 Vehicle running costs
                    60
                                 All motoring
                    50           Purchase of vehicle


                    40
                          1997      1998      1999     2000   2001   2002   2003   2004    2005   2006    2007   2008
Drivers - Cultural


  • People travelling further and for longer
  • Personalisation – choice, „here and
    now‟ expectations (and no waiting)
  • Demand outstripping supply / capacity
    of public sector to meet demands
    (replicated across public services)
  • On demand services – driven by IT
We are travelling further (and for
longer)

              180            NB: Last recession; c 5% reduction          Passenger kms

              160

              140
 (1976=100)




              120
    Index




              100                                                     Average trip length

               80

               60

               40

               20

                0
                1955   60   65   70     75      80      85     90      95      00     05

                                  Source: DfT 2007 Rail White Paper Evidence Pack from Transport
                                  Statistics GB 2006 and National Travel Survey
Run a bath with your iPhone


 Run a bath with your iPhone
 Metro, Thursday, June 24, 2009
 “After a sweaty journey home at
 the end of a dog of a day all you
 want is a long, hot bath. Now,
 thanks to iPhone add-on the
 Bath-o-matic you can get the tub
 filled, complete with bubbles,
 before you walk in the door. It
 sends a signal to a £4,000 hi-
 tech set of taps which run the
 perfect soak. London-based
 Unique Automation showcased
 the Wallace and Gromit-style
 device at a trade show this
 week.”
Challenges


 • Motoring will still be the mode of choice for
   most of the population.
Challenges


  • Inability of public transport to serve the
    majority of existing journey patterns
    (even with massive investment)
  • Conflicting demands on policy –
    sustainable development vs consumer
    led / choice approaches
  • Social inclusion – poorest will still rely
    most on public transport
Opportunities


  • Congestion
    – not going away, even with electric cars;
    – more spreading of peak travel
  • Carbon
    – need for higher densities in development
      increases demand for public transport;
    – efficiencies of road space
  • Smarter choices and more integration
  • Technology – smart stuff – e.g. oyster
Congestion


  – DfT forecasts
    30% increase
    in veh/km by
    2025 (Dec
    08)
Strong relationship between petrol
price and road use




                   Source: Delivering a Sustainable Transport System, DfT 2008
Smarter Choices


  • Smarter choices will
    mean more options (not
    just PT) – walking,
    cycling, car sharing etc
  • Sustainable Travel
    Towns initiative points
    to large behavioural
    changes for relatively
    small amounts of
    funding
Integration


  • Quality Contracts –
    West Yorkshire
    frontrunner – aim to
    produce franchised
    bus network to
    improve marketing,
    coordination, pricing
  • Benefits of
    integration – proven
    elsewhere
Technology


 • User demand for
   technology solutions
 • Success of Oyster in
   London
 • Mobile technologies
   gathering pace and
   more widespread
   usage
Public Transport in the future
will need to be…

  • Demand responsive
    – thinking about the end-use of the service rather
      than the infrastructure / operations that support it
  • Offer value
    – in terms of price or quality (or both!)
  • Smarter
    – through the choices that are made; and by
      technology
  • Low Carbon
  • Inclusive
    – meeting the needs of the non-car owners
What does this mean for place-
makers? Some thoughts…

  • Reconcile consumer preferences with
    sustainable transit orientated development!
  • Public transport more integral to the planning
    of places and services?
  • Short / medium term pressures to deliver
    development on greenfield / low density sites
    may weaken demand for public transport
  • Long term changes to increase density of
    development and therefore increase public
    transport demand still a goal worth aspiring to
Conclusions


 • Difficult to see need for Public Transport
   reducing – congestion and accessibility
   issues still with us
 • Carbon a big driver and Public Transport has
   role to play
 • But delivery may be very different…
 • Smart technology driving demand responsive
   services
 • Still a big question over how paid for – road
   pricing?

				
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Description: Presentation by Matthew Brunt, PTEG, on the future of public transport.