Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
ALLSTATE/NATIONAL JOURNAL BATTLEGROUND POLL – OCTOBER 2008 Sample of 400 Registered Voters in each state October 23 – 27, 2008 Wave 2: “Red to Blue”- Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia
Likelihood to Vote 1. And which of the following describes how likely you are to vote in the upcoming Presidential election?
LIKELIHOOD TO VOTE Total 79% 81% 2% 17% CO 72% 73% 1% 25% FL 75% 77% 3% 20% NC 76% 78% 1% 19% OH 81% 83% 2% 15% VA 92% 94% 1% 4%
Extremely/Very Likely Extremely/Very/Somewhat Likely Not Likely Have Already Voted Absentee or Early
Direction/Priorities 2. First, what is the most important issue facing the U.S. today? **Partial list containing at least 5% of total sample
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE (U.S.)** Total 68% 7% CO 68% 8% FL 69% 8% NC 65% 6% OH 67% 8% VA 68% 7%
Economy War/Terrorism
1
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
Key Figures/Institutions 3. Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following public figures. If you haven’t heard of them, just tell me and we’ll move on.
Total Fav 54% 47%
Unfav
IMAGES
CO Fav 53% 48%
Unfav
FL Fav 55% 48% Unfav 32% 45%
Fav
NC
Unfav
OH Fav 57% 49%
Unfav
VA Fav 54% 44%
Unfav
Joe Biden Sarah Palin 4.
32% 44%
35% 46%
51% 44%
33% 41%
28% 42%
33% 47%
And, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
BUSH APPROVAL Total 65% 30% CO 65% 31% FL 64% 32% NC 67% 28% OH 64% 31% VA 65% 30%
Disapprove Approve
Vote Likelihood, Candidate Preferences & Candidate Qualities 5. Now thinking about the upcoming November general election for President, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included (ROTATE) John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican candidates, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic candidates. Would you vote for McCain and Palin, the Republicans, or Obama and Biden, the Democrats? Which way would you lean as of today?
HEAD-TO-HEAD Total 43% 47% 5% CO 44% 48% 3% FL 44% 45% 5% NC 43% 47% 6% OH 41% 48% 6% VA 44% 48% 3%
McCain-Palin Obama-Biden Undecided
TREND DATA FROM WAVE 1: SEPTEMBER 11-151 CO FL HEAD-TO-HEAD 44% 44% McCain-Palin
OH 42% 41% 13%
VA 48% 41% 9%
Obama-Biden Undecided
45% 9%
44% 10%
1 Wave 1 was conducted among the same states (except North Carolina; New Mexico was the fifth state survey in Sept). Similar sample sizes were surveyed; therefore, sample sizes for each state are also +/-4.9%.
2
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
And, thinking again about the major party candidates for President… 7. Which candidate (ROTATE) John McCain or Barack Obama – would you trust more to handle the current financial crisis?
HANDLE FINANCIAL CRISIS Total 40% 49% 8% 3% CO 41% 50% 6% 2% FL 41% 49% 7% 4% NC 39% 48% 9% 4% OH 40% 47% 10% 3% VA 41% 48% 8% 3%
McCain Obama Neither/Both Don’t know 8.
Which candidate (ROTATED) John McCain or Barack Obama – do you think is more prepared to lead the country?
MORE PREPARED Total 46% 45% 5% 4% CO 45% 48% 5% 2% FL 47% 43% 6% 3% NC 46% 44% 5% 6% OH 47% 42% 7% 3% VA 46% 47% 3% 4%
McCain Obama Neither/Both Don’t know 9.
Which candidate (ROTATED) John McCain or Barack Obama – do you think better understands the needs and priorities of people like yourself?
BETTER UNDERSTANDS Total 38% 54% 6% 3% CO 39% 55% 5% 1% FL 38% 52% 7% 3% NC 38% 54% 5% 3% OH 36% 54% 7% 3% VA 38% 54% 5% 3%
McCain Obama Neither/Both Don’t know 10.
And, which candidate (ROTATE) John McCain or Barak Obama – do you think has displayed more of the personal skills and qualities it takes to succeed as President?
PERSONAL SKILLS & QUALITIES Total 40% 51% 5% 4% CO 40% 53% 4% 2% FL 40% 49% 6% 4% NC 41% 52% 4% 4% OH 39% 50% 6% 5% VA 41% 50% 6% 3%
McCain Obama Neither/Both Don’t know
3
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
11.
Now thinking about the presidential debates, how much of the presidential debates have you watched?
WATCHED DEBATES Total 45% 20% 24% 11% CO 47% 19% 20% 14% FL 50% 20% 20% 10% NC 44% 20% 27% 9% OH 38% 19% 28% 13% VA 46% 21% 24% 9%
All of them Most of them Some of them None of them
(ASKED ONLY OF N= 1,794 INDIVIDUALS WHO WATCHED ALL/MOST/SOME OF THE DEBATES) (MARGIN OF ERROR = +/-2.3 %) 12. And, overall, who would you say won the debates – (ROTATE) Barack Obama or John McCain?
WON DEBATES Total 21% 54% 18% 7% CO 20% 56% 18% 6% FL 22% 56% 18% 5% NC 20% 55% 17% 7% OH 21% 51% 18% 9% VA 19% 54% 19% 8%
McCain Obama Neither/Both Don’t know 13.
And, thinking again about Sarah Palin, the Republican nominee for vice-president, assume for a moment that John McCain were elected President and she were elected Vice-President. How prepared do you think she is to serve as President if John McCain became unable to serve as President for some reason. Do you think she is…
PALIN PREPAREDNESS Total 18% 27% 12% 40% 2% CO 19% 26% 12% 41% 2% FL 18% 26% 12% 39% 2% NC 20% 25% 10% 40% 2% OH 16% 28% 14% 38% 3% VA 16% 29% 11% 42% 2%
Very Prepared Somewhat Prepared Somewhat Unprepared Very Unprepared Don’t know
4
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
Personal Financial Situation Now, changing topics and thinking some more about you, personally… 14. Do you own or rent your primary residence?
RESIDENCE Total 80% 15% CO 83% 13% FL 84% 13% NC 77% 18% OH 76% 17% VA 81% 15%
Own Rent
15.
In the next six months, do you think that your personal financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay the same?
PERSONAL FINANCES Total 49% 27% 18% 6% CO 49% 24% 21% 7% FL 46% 33% 15% 6% NC 47% 29% 17% 7% OH 51% 26% 16% 7% VA 50% 26% 19% 5%
Stay the same Get better Get worse Don’t know
(ASKED ONLY OF N= 1,628 HOMEOWNERS) (MARGIN OF ERROR = +/-2.4%) 16X. Now I am going to read you a short list of some areas of people’s personal financial situation they are concerned about. As you think about the next six months, please tell me which one concerns you MOST… (RANDOMIZED)
TOP FINANCIAL CONCERN (OWNERS) Total 25% 20% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 4% CO 25% 18% 15% 9% 7% 6% 7% 6% 4% FL 26% 20% 11% 6% 6% 10% 7% 7% 5% NC 25% 21% 8% 13% 6% 8% 6% 4% 5% OH 24% 24% 9% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% 2% VA 27% 17% 14% 6% 12% 7% 5% 6% 4%
Financial market crisis Health Care Costs Retirement savings Cost of gas/utilities Education costs Declining value of home Job loss Credit card debt Monthly mortgage
5
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
(ASKED ONLY OF N= 309 RENTERS) (MARGIN OF ERROR = +/-5.6 %) 16Y. Now I am going to read you a short list of some areas of people’s personal financial situation they are concerned about. As you think about the next six months, please tell me which one concerns you MOST…
TOP FINANCIAL CONCERN (RENTERS) Total 24% 16% 12% 11% 8% 8% 7% 7% 5% CO 24% 15% 11% 10% 11% 14% 3% 8% 3% FL 21% 18% 14% 15% 15% 6% 7% 2% 2% NC 29% 13% 13% 8% 4% 6% 8% 7% 11% OH 27% 22% 7% 8% 8% 8% 5% 7% 5% VA 15% 13% 18% 15% 5% 10% 11% 8% 1%
Health care Financial market crisis Education costs Cost of gas/utilities Paying monthly rent Credit card debt Retirement savings Job loss Housing market 17.
And, as a result of the crisis in the financial markets and economic news of the past month, which of the following, if any, have you done?
ACTIONS TAKEN AMIDST FINANCIAL CRISIS
YES
Total 65% 48% 35% 30% 22% 21% 15% 14% 13% 13% 8% 6% CO 59% 41% 31% 27% 19% 20% 12% 12% 13% 10% 6% 6% FL 69% 49% 38% 37% 27% 22% 23% 17% 16% 16% 13% 7% NC 67% 49% 36% 30% 20% 22% 16% 14% 15% 13% 9% 5% OH 65% 50% 39% 30% 22% 21% 12% 17% 10% 12% 8% 7% VA 64% 51% 34% 27% 24% 20% 14% 12% 11% 12% 6% 7%
Using your car less to save on gas Starting shopping more at discount stores Stopped using a credit card Cancelled or postponed a major purchase Cancelled a subscription or membership Started looking for a second job Withdrew a significant amount of money from savings Sold some personal belongings Stopped contributing to 401K Sold off some investments Withdrew a significant amount of money from a retirement account Considered purchasing an annuity through an insurance company
6
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
Psychographics/Demographics I only have a few more questions for statistical purposes.... 18. What is your marital status? Are you . . .
MARITAL STATUS Total 20% 64% 7% 1% 6% CO 19% 69% 5% 1% 5% FL 18% 63% 7% 2% 8% NC 20% 61% 10% 2% 5% OH 20% 60% 8% 1% 11% VA 23% 68% 5% 1% 3%
Single Married Divorced Separated Widowed
AGE. In what year were you born?
AGE Total 23% 40% 36% CO 22% 39% 39% FL 17% 46% 37% NC 26% 34% 37% OH 23% 38% 39% VA 28% 42% 30%
18-34 35-54 55+ 19.
And, how many children under the age of 18, if any, do you have living at home?
CHILDREN AT HOME Total 62% 16% 14% 6% 2% CO 64% 14% 16% 4% 3% FL 67% 16% 10% 4% 2% NC 59% 16% 16% 6% 1% OH 63% 15% 13% 7% 2% VA 55% 18% 17% 7% 2%
None One Two Three Four or more 20.
What is the last grade of formal education you have completed?
EDUCATION Total 4% 21% 23% 35% 16% CO 5% 18% 23% 36% 18% FL 3% 21% 23% 36% 16% NC 5% 19% 26% 35% 13% OH 6% 31% 21% 30% 12% VA 3% 18% 22% 37% 20%
Less than HS HS graduate Some college/ vocational school College graduate Post graduate
7
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
(ASK ONLY IN OHIO AND VIRGINIA) 21.X Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else? Do you consider yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or not so strong (Republican/Democrat)? [IF INDEPENDENT ASK:] Would you say that you lean toward Republicans or more toward the Democrats?
PARTY ID Total 40% 35% 19% OH 43% 35% 17% VA 37% 35% 21%
Democrat Republican Independent/Other
(ASK ONLY IN COLORADO, FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA) 21Y. And, regardless of how you may vote, would state records show that you are registered to vote as a (ROTATE REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRAT) Republican, a Democrat…or something else?
PARTY REGISTRATION Total 39% 35% 17% CO 32% 34% 25% FL 42% 36% 13% NC 42% 36% 12%
Democrat Republican Independent/Other 22.
Do you consider yourself very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, very conservative or haven’t you thought much about this? [IF MODERATE ASK:] Do you tend to lean toward the liberal or conservative side?
IDEOLOGY Total 28% 43% 19% CO 33% 40% 20% FL 29% 41% 20% NC 24% 49% 18% OH 25% 46% 18% VA 31% 40% 20%
Liberal Conservative Moderate 23.
And please tell me which of the following categories applies to your total household income for 2007:
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
< $15,000 $15,000 to < $30,000 $30,000 to <$50,000 $50,000 to < $75,000 $75,000 to < $100,000 $100,000 to < $200,000 $200,000 or more
Total 6% 11% 16% 19% 13% 15% 4%
CO 7% 10% 15% 17% 12% 19% 5%
FL 5% 9% 18% 20% 16% 12% 4%
NC 4% 14% 18% 22% 11% 13% 3%
OH 9% 13% 16% 19% 10% 10% 3%
VA 3% 7% 14% 18% 16% 20% 7%
8
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
24.
For statistical purposes only, could you please tell me your ethnic background?
ETHNIC BACKGROUND Total 77% 6% 12% 1% 1% 1% CO 83% 9% 2% 1% 2% 2% FL 70% 12% 12% 1% 2% 1% NC 72% 5% 20% 1% 1% OH 83% 1% 11% 1% 1% 1% VA 76% 2% 16% 2% 1% 1%
White/Caucasian Hispanic/Latino African-American/Black Asian-American/Asian Native American Other 25.
How would you describe your religious affiliation?
RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION Total 53% 18% 13% 2% 2% 1% CO 41% 19% 23% 1% 3% 1% 2% FL 43% 25% 13% 4% 3% 1% NC 67% 8% 9% 1% 1% 1% OH 57% 21% 11% 1% 1% 1% VA 59% 15% 10% 1% 1% 1% -
Protestant Catholic No affiliation Jewish Atheist/Agnostic Buddhist Mormon Muslim
(N=1,508 OVERALL MARGIN OF ERRROR= +/-2.5%) 26. How often do you attend religious services -- At least once a week, almost every week, about once a month, seldom, or never?
RELIGIOUS SERVICES ATTENDANCE Total 41% 12% 16% 23% 7% CO 36% 8% 20% 27% 9% FL 40% 11% 13% 24% 11% NC 46% 16% 14% 20% 5% OH 45% 11% 14% 25% 5% VA 40% 13% 21% 21% 4%
At least once a week Almost every week About once a month Seldom Never
That completes our survey. Thank you very much for your time and cooperation, and have a pleasant (day/evening).
9
Conducted by:
ALLSTATE NATIONAL JOURNAL WAVE II: “RED TO BLUE” BATTLEGROUND SURVEYS
Field Dates: October 23-27, 2008 Sample Size: 2027 Registered Voters (CO: 409, FL: 408; NC: 402, OH: 404, VA: 404) Margin of Error: +/-2.2% (Overall); +/-4.9% (For each state)
A.
Gender (BY OBSERVATION)
GENDER Total 52% 48% CO 52% 48% FL 52% 48% NC 52% 48% OH 52% 48% VA 52% 48%
Female Male B. REGION (BY PREFIX)
(N=2,027)
STATE Total 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Colorado Florida North Carolina Ohio Virginia
10