A MEDITERRANEAN VISION FOR THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST

A MEDITERRANEAN VISION FOR THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST Cervantes Institut - Amman 18 May 2000 INTRODUCTION Ladies and Gentlemen, My sincere thanks to the Instituto Cervantes in AMMAN, and its director - my old yet young friend Lola Infante - for this invitation to share my reflections with so many friends. I recently informed a colleague from the other side of the Atlantic that I was soon going to Amman to talk about a "Mediterranrean vision". He replied if it was not strange to refer to such a subject in a country that only has shores in the Gulf of Aqaba and at the Dead Sea. For you and for me it can only be natural, given that this country, with such a rich history, has always been a reference for Mediterranean Cultures. The Greeks, the Nabateans, the Romans, the Muslims, the Christians, the Hebrews, the Bedouins... the caravans were the chain of communication between the Mediterranean and distant cultures, all have learnt and left something here, all have enriched themselves with the other important elements of this area, like, among others, the dessert. I explained to my friend that I consider myself a pure Mediterranean specimen, despite the fact that I was born in Madrid - a Mediterranean city, whose distance to the coast doubles the one between Amman and the waters of Jaffo. Jordan is an original member –in both senses of the word- within the EUROMED project. It is also one of the most active and effective ones in terms of implementing MEDA projects. Here I would like to take the opportunity to pay tribute to its political leaders, HM the Late King Hussein, Prince Hassan and HM The King Abdalah, who have encouraged this approach making Jordan one of the first Mediterranean countries to sign an Association Agreement The Middle East is today at the centre of the Arab Israeli conflict and the Peace Process that has dominated its political life during fifty years. Many actors and ideas are present, many projects and proposals as well. Here the question arises whether this MEDITERRANEAN VISION can be an integral part of the solution or even - as I will assert tonight - the main issue for the present and future. 1. MEDITERRANEAN AS A WHOLE REGION -Common history Socrates said once that the inhabitants of the world were "like frogs around the lagoon". By that he meant that the sea was for them the centre of their lives, and they were looking at each other, relating to each other, through the sea. It is not, to my opinion, an idea with just archaeological value, since all the big cultures that are present today in Mediterranean, existed already at the Socratic era. Subsequent cultural, religious or political innovations did not alter this fundamental and natural relationship with the sea. Today we are still having our fundamental relations, which have spread to the North of Europe, around the MESOGUION, the MARE NOSTRUM, the (((ARABIC AND HEBREW NAMES))) DENIZ. At this point let me mention some facts - maybe tough facts - that might show that against this backdrop of common heritage, our societies are experiencing a different evolution. • Annual growth has been modest in the last years - around 2 percent. In view of the population growth rate of about 3.5 percent, this has meant a decline in your per capita income with all the consequences this has for the low-income groups. On the other hand there is a low inflation and privatisation has picked up with a recent investment of France Telecom in the Jordan Telecommunications Company amounting to Euro 508 million. The largest foreign investment in Jordan ever. And we will see more of this as privatisation continues. The Economic Consultative Council, formed by King Abdallah, has done remarkable work and can serve as example to others how to invigorate economic development. The Extended Fund Facility accord with the IMF is working satisfactory, also with the active support by the European Union structural adjustment facility worth Euro 80 million. The Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreement has been ratified by most EU partners and is expected to come into force later this year. Total EU aid to Jordan has averaged 5 percent of GDP since 1995, with Europe as a whole providing well over Euro 1.1 billion in financial assistance during this period. • • • • • All this gives a mixed picture. Part of the problem is that Jordan is still suffering from the loss of one of its most lucrative export and trade market (Iraq). Another problem is still the high debt rate - 112 percent of GDP (EU Maastricht criteria allows only for 60 percent) - that requires using hard earned foreign currency for repayments. In addition Jordan is using 8.6 of its GDP for military expenditure (Lebanon=3.7%, Syria=5.9%). Don't get me wrong. I am not analysing these facts. I merely wanted to state them in order to say that the European Union is determined to stand by Jordan and assist it on its difficult path of reform. I also wanted say with this that we considered that history has gone in a wrong direction for a certain time, and that we have to reflect on together how to change this and put the necessary means and resources to work. 1. THE BARCELONA PROCESS: A NEW DIPLOMATIC APPROACH The conclusion of this reflection was the Barcelona Conference and its Declaration. A revolutionary diplomatic project embodying a political, economic and cultural approach, aimed at creating a Free Trade Area. The BARCELONA PROCESS is a comprehensive project with a long-term perspective. It is not, obviously, the only alternative for the future. More nationalistic approaches are emerging, such as strategies either emphasising the hard security elements or focusing more on traditional forms of co-operation or aiming directly at the globalisation. To my opinion, only the Euro-Med process can offer the region the stability it badly needs. The European Union is working hard in order to combine actions in the Middle East Peace Process with long term and more comprehensive ones. We consider that traditional formulas have proven unable to provide the solutions we need, and that only new approaches, which take into account the positive inputs of past ones, can bring hope and real change. It is in this framework, with this vision of co-operative networking and political integration that the EU is offering its assistance for a NEW MIDDLE EAST. And I would like to elaborate on two perspectives: -Our involvement in the Peace Process. -Our vision for the region in a post peace scenario. 2. THE "MEDITERRANEAN" VISION FOR THE PEACE PROCESS Two good reasons for the EU to develop synergies between Barcelona and the Peace Process, one philosophical and one political: • PHILOSOPHICAL. In the fifties the EU was able to produce a successful formula of integration, thus overcoming centuries of wars. We needed 300 years of fratricide European civil –between the "Thirty Years War" and the II World War- to reach this conclusion. Now we are exporting this idea out of the conviction that other regions could avoid this terrible experience by using ours. During those three centuries, the prevailing idea between the different European actors was predominance and exclusion. Today we have changed from predominance to co-operation, from exclusion to integration. • POLITICAL. Barcelona is the only structure where all Peace Process actors are working together in different projects. There must be something attiring enough for all EUROMED partners to be present. Let me tell you that Barcelona is a bridge to for this philosophy to spread all over the Mediterranean. Let me tell you that we think that in the Middle East neither exclusion nor predominance can permit a successful future. If any country in the region considers that it can prevail over the others it will be laying the seeds of future conflict. If any country believes that it can build its future on the basis of exclusion of ideas, religions, groups or countries is also wrong. Barcelona is an active formula for this philosophy and we are satisfied that many resources have been put to work together in order to foster these principles. You know me, and you know I am neither triumphalist nor a self-complacent person. Hence, I stand ready to acknowledge mistakes. Also in the implementation of Barcelona we made mistakes. In the past years we have tried to encapsulate Barcelona, to isolate it of the stalemate of the Peace Process. We thought that by doing so we could safeguard Barcelona´s success against that backdrop. It proved a wrong strategy because instead of transferring the positive evolution of Barcelona to the Middle East Peace Process we slowed this project down due to lack of progress in the bilateral negotiations. We can learn from our mistakes, and, after assessing that more political push is needed for the Barcelona project, after consulting with our Mediterranean partners, we are introducing a synergetic approach in our work. Our vision can be traced in most of our Peace Process activities, especially in our long term ones. Let me outline some of our actions aimed at developing co-operation and dialogue among regional parties as well as between them and us: In the Multilateral Track, we have been supporting the establishment of a nucleus for a regional water data bank, oil spill contingency programme for the Gulf of Aqaba, water management courses, Jordan Valley development programmes, regional collaboration on studying the best ways and means for transport corridors, electricity links, railway networks and development of tourism. We have also addressed how best to reduce if not abolish non-tariff barriers that hinder the development of regional trade, which is still far below potential. We have established informal EU Task Forces on Water and Refugee issues and started a dialogue with concerned parties on how best to address these issues in a post peace environment with the aim of identifying most suitable, equitable and legally sound solutions. We have started a trilateral dialogue with Israelis and Palestinians on new and additional water resources. We would like to associate Jordan to this. In this context, we are looking favourably at possible scenarios for future regional co-operative structures in the water sector. All this is done with goal of preparing the EU to stand ready to provide proposals and maybe answers to requests for assistance. All this is also done to shape our view on the sensitive issues involved. And I can tell you that we are ready to contribute in kind and with ideas if wished by the concerned parties. Another area, in which the EU is heavily engaged in, are People-to-People projects. I know that some consider the time not ripe or not opportune to continue such programmes under the present difficult situation. On this I can only reply: When is the time ripe? It is my firm conviction that People-to-People projects are the avant-garde. Such programmes make real peace possible between societies. Only they can start addressing tabu's and in doing so assist the political leaders in making tough decisions and compromises. There are many examples that show how societies have been ahead of their leaders. This is what we try to achieve. To wait until the time is ripe would be a lost opportunity. Under my umbrella we have engaged Israel in a joint dialogue on problems of the Palestinian economy with the goal to assist in achieving tangible improvements. In four working groups (Passage of people & goods, airport & harbour; Fiscal and Financial Issues, Labour Issues and Medium and Longer Term Economic Potentials) we have been able to identify and help resolve some contentious issues such as: increase in overnight passes for Palestinian labourers working in Israel, introduction of closure proof permits, abolishment of quotas for normal day-labour permits, reduction of security and administrative checks for Palestinian exports to Europe. We have also impressed on Israel to allow for door-to-door shipment of goods between Jordan and Israel as well as the Palestinian territories and vice versa. And I am pleased to hear that this issue is now being actively addressed. Security lies at the heart of most matters in the Middle East. In recognition of this fact we have established an EU-Palestinian Security Committee that oversees a series of actions aimed at assisting and enabling the Palestinian services to meet security requirements as called for by agreements. It is also about public and community relations in order to assure the public that a professional, appropriate and timely response to security concerns can be provided. It is also about carefully targeting and limiting action only against those committed to violence. This naturally requires respect of the rule of law and human rights. Finally, I would like to highlight our efforts in assisting the Palestinian Authority on the difficult path to institutional reform. For this we first conducted a thorough assessment, in close co-operation with the Authority, of all institutions, and establishing a list of recommendations on how best to improve the performance. This exercise was lead by the US based Council on Foreign Relations. It resulted in the establishment of a Higher National Committee for Institutional Development chaired by the Minister for Planning and International Co-operation. We are in close contact with this committee and ready to assist when required, since we respect that this is essentially a sensitive internal affair. Nonetheless, it is our view that improving public service, developing democratic values, respect of the rule of law and financial transparency are prerequisites for good governance. I would like to salute the Palestinian Authority for having courageously embarked on this endeavour. Who knows, this project might even serve as an example to the EU? 1. THE "MEDITERRANEAN" VISION FOR THE FUTURE NEW SECURITY AND ECONOMIC CONCEPT There is a new political and security concept that has to be adopted in the Middle East: At the beginning of the next millennium the traditional ways to address the political and security challenges have to be reviewed and enriched. Politically speaking we have already advanced in the process of reconciliation and normalisation between Arab countries and Israelis. Still important ¨rendez-vous¨ have to be reached in order to overcome the historical controversy. The "Land for Peace¨ formula continues to be the key and essential element for any equation for peace. Nevertheless, once this principle will be implemented we should look for appropriate new means and ways to consolidate the new situation. The new political concept to be defended in the region should abide by the respect to the rule of law and the development of Human Rights. This political framework will be the best guarantee for a lasting and real commitment of all peoples to back and defend the fragile peace. On the other hand a new concept of international relations is appearing, fostered very particularly by the EU. It is a conception of security for the new millennium, rooted in the post-Cold War thinking of security, which inspired the European Communities. Security should not and cannot be addressed solely in military terms. The threats to the international community are changing. We do not talk much these days about inter-state conflict. Our societies perceive a threat coming from new phenomena such as internal disintegration, migration flows, environmental degradation, human rights, economic development, and so on. We know that developing military capabilities and deterrence strategies, forging alliances only based on this approach is no longer a solution to address the different challenges I have just mentioned. Co-operation seems to be the only way to tackle these threats. After the success of the EU, there is an international trend to develop new frameworks of "co- operative security", which should deal with the root causes of conflict and to promote strategies of reassurance and confidence building, rather than those of deterrence or containment. I am afraid that we are still in front of a rather shy materialisation of these ideas. But states within specific regional areas are progressively working towards finding solutions to their security concerns in a regional framework. Besides this new political and security concept it is needed to apply to this region a new economic concept: All countries need to develop, to improve their standards of living and to grow. This is part of the most legitimate aspirations of any country. We have already talked about regional co-operation as a source of security. It is very important to improve co-ordination in sectors like environment, tourism, services, etc. But we think we can go beyond. By creating a common network of interest, by making our economies more dependent on the others, we are not weakening our positions. On the contrary, we are making conflict more unlikely, thus avoiding the vicious circle of conflict-poverty, and we are fostering the possibilities of creating larger markets, more able to compete. This is at the very heart of the new economic idea. Let us make the economy a source of wealth, and, in parallel, a source of stability. Both poverty and an oldfashioned concept of interest will be overcome. Bearing this in mind, the European Union has developed the same philosophy to build a Community that inspired the Economic Union from which we developed a politically integrated Europe. We are still conceptualising this new economic notion, but we have already advanced significantly. We have already said that the Euro-Mediterranean partnership was to be based upon a free trade area. The Barcelona Declaration set the target date for the gradual establishment of this area as 2010 and stated that it would be implemented through a framework of new agreements not only between the Community and the Mediterranean partners but also between the partners themselves, what we call the south – south co-operation. In order to facilitate the establishment of the free trade area, co-operation between the parties would focus inter alia, on harmonising rules and procedures in the customs field, in particular with a view to the progressive introduction of cumulation of origin. The European Union considered that the preferential treatment accorded by the different agreements forming the area would be based upon identical rules of origin and a system of cumulation providing the necessary linkage between the agreements. The Barcelona process proposes to develop the relationships created by the bilateral customs agreements and financial protocols of the 1970s and 1980s towards a "stability pact". There in the broader context of Mediterranean security converges with economic development, investment and trade relations. The notion of linking the European Union with the Southern Mediterranean states was conceived through the creation of a free trade zone and through a programme aiming at reinforcing political and socio-cultural relations, and the synergies emerging from trade and investment. To this end, the European Union committed a very important economical and political support. This revolutionary concept was also addressed to the Peace Process, whose evolution had allowed progress in the Euro-Mediterranean arena. Many of the issues under discussion within the Barcelona framework, such as water management, tourism, environment, or trade mirror those in the multilateral talks. However, the Union was going to use it special position and relations to include Syria and Lebanon in that framework. Both countries have until now refused to attend any of the meetings of the multilateral working groups, claiming that regional co-operation should not be discussed until a political settlement in the bilateral tracks will have been reached with Israel. But in 1995, Syria and Lebanon decided to take their seats around the table with Israel and placed their signatures on the Barcelona Declaration. These features of the Barcelona philosophy reflect Barcelona’s own social vision, expressed in the Barcelona Declaration, a very interesting social program for peace. To conclude, I would like to recall this vision, as expressed in the Declaration, for which I think we Europeans can be proud and to which I am personally so related: "The participants recognise the traditions of culture and civilisation throughout the Mediterranean region. Dialogue between these cultures and exchanges at human, scientific and technological levels are an essential factor in bringing their people's closer, promoting understanding between them and improving their perceptions of each other. They reaffirm that dialogue and respect between cultures and religions are a necessary precondition for bringing the peoples closer". 5. THE EU VISION FOR THE FUTURE As you can imagine, this Process of reconciliation, together with the development of the Mediterranean partnership, will not be completely accomplished in the short term. This is why we are already working in a longterm strategy which, building on the above-mentioned principles, will set the new policy of the Union to the region. In this light, the General Affairs Council of 24th January has requested the High Representative for CFSP and to me, assisted by the Commission, to draw up a Vision Paper for the future of the region once peace has been achieved, and to outline what role and contribution the Union can play and provide. It is our intention to develop, within our effort to implement and consolidate peace, most of the ideas I have developed today. Having this mandate in mind, we intend to focus our paper on three main objectives. First, to foresee the future of the region taking into accounts the present realities, and future challenges. Second, to outline a strategy in order to contribute to make peace work. Third, in order to facilitate an efficient role of the EU it seems necessary first to identify our interests in the region, to draw our own vision of its future and to propose a set of recommendations as it should not be a theoretical, but practical-oriented policy paper. At this stage I cannot be very precise since I am summoned to present the paper in the next CAG on the 10 April. However I can explain some of its guidelines, in order to acquaint you on the future bearing of the Union in the Middle East. These three main objectives should be integral part of the general EU strategy for the Mediterranean and the Middle East. With the aim to put this exercise into a time framework, the paper focuses on the perspective on the first two decades of the century and mainly on the target date 2010 as mentioned in the Barcelona process for establishing a Free Trade Zone in the region. One of the problems that arise in this kind of initiatives relates to the definition of its geographic scope. The near future of the Middle East could not be understood without taking into consideration its own geopolitical dynamics. Therefore, any projection of the future of the region should enlarge the traditional geographic concept hitherto used and include neighbouring areas and countries. The EU undertakes this exercise in a crucial juncture. Peace has not been achieved. Nevertheless, if the EU wants to be ready to respond to the request of the parties and the needs of the region, it should prepare itself based on a clear awareness of the challenges, in its own vision of the future and the knowledge of its capabilities. This is the goal of this exercise. It is clear that peace has a price, a hefty price tag. The first estimations have come out with a set of figures of a great magnitude. The "astronomic" figures have to be seen in regard off what will be achieved by pacifying the Middle East. The cost of war, in terms of human lives, hatred and spiritual disruption, well assessed by five wars since 1948, and its devastating political and economic consequences, and the possibility of an endless conflict, has by all means a much higher price. 6. CONCLUSIONS