COG _ TPB Regional Analysis_ Impa

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					             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
    Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
        For the Metropolitan Washington Region




        Department of Human Services, Planning and Public Safety
                 Department of Transportation Planning
            Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

                      Center for Regional Analysis
                       George Mason University

                             July 20, 2005
                               COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                     Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                         For the Metropolitan Washington Region



        Methodology and Assumptions for Developing
        2010 and 2020 Job and Household Forecasts
          Resulting from BRAC Recommendations

Analysis and Interpretation of BRAC Recommendations
 – May 2005 U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) BRAC list
 – Northern Virginia Regional Commission DoD leased facilities database
 – National Capital Planning Commission federal employment facility file
 – Meetings / conversations with DoD agencies, contractors, commercial
   real estate brokers


Assumed numbers are knowledge and judgment as of June 27
                           COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                 Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
             Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                     For the Metropolitan Washington Region




      Methodology and Assumptions for Developing
      2010 and 2020 Job and Household Forecasts
        Resulting from BRAC Recommendations

Three Categories of Job Movements
 – DOD-owned Facilities
 – DOD Employees in Leased Space
 – DOD Contractor Jobs (Induced)
                               COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                     Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                         For the Metropolitan Washington Region




        Methodology and Assumptions for Developing
        2010 and 2020 Job and Household Forecasts
          Resulting from BRAC Recommendations

2010
  •BRAC base and facility changes largely complete or underway (5/6 of
  job movements have occurred: 6-year implementation requirement)
  •DoD workers in leased office space must be in facilities that meet the
  UFC security requirements - 2009

2020
  •all BRAC DoD base realignments complete
  •absorption of space or redevelopment will occur for leased facilities
  vacated in 2010 for failure to meet UFC standards – but less new
  construction by 2020; and Household impacts
                             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                   Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
               Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                       For the Metropolitan Washington Region




        Methodology and Assumptions for Developing
        2010 and 2020 Job and Household Forecasts
          Resulting from BRAC Recommendations

Other Impacts / Implications
–   Leased-space Back-filling
–   Fort Belvoir
–   Employee Residence Relocation Outside Region
–   Employee Residence Relocation Inside Region
–   Redevelopment
–   Potential Longer-term Regional Impacts - Decentralization
                                      COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                            Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                        Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                                For the Metropolitan Washington Region




2010 Land Use Findings:

  Washington region employment
   –   -15,030 jobs (-0.5%)

  A reduction in projected employment for
   –   Arlington County (-19,321 jobs)
   –   the City of Alexandria (-7,539)
   –   the District of Columbia (-6,508)
  An increase in projected employment for
   –   Fairfax County (+14,506 jobs)
   –   Anne Arundel County (+4,450)
   –   Prince William County (+2,500)
   –   Prince George’s County (+1,496)

  Regional Activity Center Clusters
   –   -28,731 jobs (-1.2 %)

  No changes in projected 2010 households
                           COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                 Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
             Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                     For the Metropolitan Washington Region



            Difference Between Round 6.4A and Round 6.4A
                   BRAC-Related 2010 Employment
20,000


10,000
             Central
          Jurisdictions
     0
                                        Inner Suburbs              Outer Suburbs

-10,000


-20,000


-30,000


-40,000
                                            COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                                  Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                              Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                                      For the Metropolitan Washington Region




                    Difference between Round 6.4A and BRAC-Related 2010 Employment
                             for Selected Jurisdictions (BRAC Minus Round 6.4a)
20,000
          14,506
15,000

10,000
                     4,450         2,500
 5,000
                                                1,496          68          -146
     0

 -5,000
                                                                                       -6,508        -7,539
-10,000

-15,000

-20,000
                                                                                                                 -19,321
-25,000
          Fairfax    Anne         Prince        Prince      Frederick   Montgomery   District of     City of    Arlington
          County    Arundel       William      George's      County       County     Columbia      Alexandria    County
                    County        County       County
             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
    Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
        For the Metropolitan Washington Region
                                      COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                            Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                        Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                                For the Metropolitan Washington Region




2020 Land Use Findings:
  Washington region employment
   –   +13,700 jobs (+0.4%)
  A reduction in projected employment for
   –   Arlington County (-6,600 jobs)
   –   the District of Columbia (-4,511)
   –   the City of Alexandria (-2,400)
  An increase in projected employment for
   –   Fairfax County (+21,400 jobs)
   –   Anne Arundel County (+5,361)
   –   Prince William County (+3,013)
   –   Prince George’s County (+1,557)
  Households
   –   Prince William County (+3,000 households)
   –   Fairfax County (+2,000)
   –   Montgomery (+1,000)
   –   District of Columbia (+1,000)
  Regional Activity Center Clusters
   –   -1,617 jobs (-0.1 %)
   –   +3,000 households (+0.3%)
                           COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                 Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
             Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                     For the Metropolitan Washington Region




            Difference Between Round 6.4A and Round 6.4A
                   BRAC-Related 2020 Employment


30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
 5,000       Central
          Jurisdictions
     0
                                        Inner Suburbs              Outer Suburbs
 -5,000
-10,000
-15,000
-20,000
                                            COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                                  Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                              Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                                      For the Metropolitan Washington Region




                      Difference between Round 6.4A and BRAC-Related 2020 Employment
                               for Selected Jurisdictions (BRAC Minus Round 6.4a)

25,000
          21,400
20,000

15,000

10,000
                     5,361
                                   3,013
 5,000
                                                1,557        1,272
                                                                            82
     0

 -5,000                                                                               -2,400
                                                                                                   -4,511
                                                                                                                -6,634
-10,000
          Fairfax    Anne        Prince        Prince     Montgomery    Frederick     City of    District of   Arlington
          County    Arundel      William      George's     County        County     Alexandria   Columbia       County
                    County       County       County
             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
    Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
        For the Metropolitan Washington Region
                                 COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                       Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                   Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                           For the Metropolitan Washington Region




2010 Transportation and Air Quality Findings:

  Total transit trips decrease by -18,528 (-1.84%)

  Total vehicle trips increase by 26,790 (+0.12%)

  Vehicle miles traveled increase by 73,829 (+0.04%)

  VOC emissions increase by 0.03 tons per day (+0.05%)

  NOX would increase 0.02 tons per day (+0.01%)
                               COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                     Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                         For the Metropolitan Washington Region




         Percent Change in 2010 Forecast: BRAC Minus 6.4A
                                (TPB Modeled Region)
0.50%
             Transit trips
0.00%
                                             Total Vehicle              Vehicle Miles
                                                 Trips                 Traveled (VMT)
-0.50%


-1.00%


-1.50%


-2.00%
             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
    Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
        For the Metropolitan Washington Region
             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
    Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
        For the Metropolitan Washington Region
                                 COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                       Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                   Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                           For the Metropolitan Washington Region




2020 Transportation and Air Quality Findings:

  Total transit trips decrease by -6,097 (-0.52%)

  Total vehicle trips increase by 84,932 (+0.34%)

  Total vehicle miles traveled increase by 133,435 (+0.07%).

  VOC emissions would increase by 0.08 tons per day (+0.22%)

  NOX would increase 0.03 tons per day (+0.07%).
                                 COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                       Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                   Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                           For the Metropolitan Washington Region




         Percent Change in 2020 Forecast: BRAC Minus 6.4A
                                (TPB Modeled Region)
0.50%


0.00%
                                              Total Vehicle               Vehicle Miles
                                                  Trips                  Traveled (VMT)
-0.50%
             Transit trips

-1.00%


-1.50%


-2.00%
             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
    Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
        For the Metropolitan Washington Region
             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
    Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
        For the Metropolitan Washington Region
             COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
    Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
        For the Metropolitan Washington Region
                                COG / TPB Regional Analysis:
                      Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)
                  Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations
                          For the Metropolitan Washington Region




Report Appendices:

  Appendix A - Base Realignment and Closure Actions - D.C., MD, and VA
  Appendix B - DoD Unified Facilities Criteria Design Standards
  Appendix C - NCPC Urban Design Standards
  Appendix D - George Mason University Methodology and Assumptions
  Appendix E - November 2004 COG/NCPC Security Conference Summary
  Appendix F - NAIOP Article on ISC and UFC

				
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