FUTURE OF
‘Prediction is very difficult,
  especially about…’ YB
              Talk Structure
•   Technological Context
•   Learning from the Past
•   14 Enhancements
•   Key Issues & Questions
•   Top 3 Priorities
        Technological Context
•   Ubiquitous Computing
•   Convergence of IT & Comms
•   Portable Devices
•   Moore’s Law X 3
•   Object-Oriented Programming
•   Machine Learning
•   Cheap Self ‘Publishing’
      New Technologies - Trends
•   Self-describing software
•   Sound and Touch
•   Entering virtual worlds
•   Speckled Computing
•   Chatty Avatars
•   Grid Computing
•   High Performance
              Briefest History
•   1960s - Skinner, Suppes & Programmed Learning
•   1970s - Piaget, Papert & Learning Programming
•   1980s - Intelligent Computer Tutors
•   1990s - Computer Supported Collaborative
•   2000s - Virtual Schools and Universities
•   Ephemeral National Programmes
•   No Significant learning gains
•   No Saving of recurrent £s
Enhancements to Learning

Special properties used to enhance
learning on orthogonal dimensions
         1. Visualisation

By augmenting simulation engines,
symbolic calculators and other software
with graphical output it becomes possible to
support student visualisation of highly
abstract processes and procedures.
        Visualisation Questions
•   How best to share them?
•   Best Visual Vocabularies?
•   Role of Redundant Audio?
•   How Organise Visual Libraries?
            2. Diagnosis

By tracking student work on related tasks it
becomes possible to distinguish ‘accidental’
errors from those which provide statistical
evidence for failure to understand key
concepts or to master critical skills.
        Diagnosis Questions
• Group Diagnosis?
• Where cost-effective?
• Relation to assessment?
        3. Remediation

By systematically giving students greater
access to relevant information or
rehearsing them on weak skills it becomes
possible to focus remediation on areas that
the student, tutor or software has
diagnosed as requiring attention.
      Remediation Questions
• Learning Style Variation?
• Remediation V. Exploration?
• Relation to Assessment?
           4. Reflection
By giving the student access to records of
their past working, the responses of the
peers, tutors and systems they were working
with and by providing them with tools with
which to annotate and file such work it
becomes possible to support systematic
reflection on what they have learnt and on
their own learning processes.
        Reflection Questions
• When does Reflection Occur?
• Consistency of stored pasts?
     5. Memory Prostheses
By giving students comprehensive access to
their past computer mediated work and by
providing them with appropriate search
engines it becomes possible for students to
have the self confidence to be very selective
and focused about what they chose to
attempt to memorise at any point in time,
thus supporting much greater cognitive
economy on the part of the learner.
       Prosthesis Questions
• Is Forgetting Good?
• Does Confidence Change?
• Computers in Exams?
          6. Scaffolding

By tracking student learning gains and by
human or system dialogue with the learner
it becomes possible to dynamically vary the
level of scaffolding provided for learners.
       Scaffolding Questions
• Anybody Really Doing This?
• Cog Psych Approaches?
 7. Tackling the Hypothetical
By making it possible for students to set up
counterfactual situations in simulations or to
break laws in symbolic reasoning systems it
becomes possible for students to investigate
the fundamental principles which underpin
formal scientific, mathematical and other
            Tackling Hyp Qs
•   Range of Models & Simulations?
•   Evaluate Learning Gains?
•   Applications to Soc Sci?
•   Applications to Humanities?
          8. Time Travel

By facilitating ‘time travel’ as a matter of
routine in simulations and databases it
becomes possible to help learners augment
their understanding by focusing on the key
issues of chronology and causality.
      Time Travel Questions?
• Does this Happen?
• Learning Gains?
• Is Forward Possible?
           9. Autonomy

By taking the learner’s viewpoint when
designing instructional software it becomes
possible to give the learner greater control
over the degree to which there are external
interventions in their learning processes.
       Autonomy Questions
• Learner Perceptions?
• Learner Style Variation?
• Cog Psych Underpinning?
             10. Pacing
By providing a ‘clock’ based on the planned
work of a cohort of learners or on an
appropriate instructional design it becomes
possible for learners to increase their
motivation when engaged in sequences of
learning activity over longer time periods
such as terms and years.
            Pacing Questions
•   Types of Clock?
•   Force of Clock?
•   Learner Perceptions?
•   Impact on Completion?
         11. Redundancy

By encoding the same learning material
using different media elements it becomes
possible for heterogeneous groups of
learners with different learning styles and
media preferences to study the same
curriculum content.
        Redundancy Questions
•   Is Claim True?
•   Explore by Experiment?
•   Audio Redundancy?
•   Visual Redundancy?
•   Text Redundancy?
•   Touch & Gesture?
•   Smellovision?
           12. Motivation
By addressing issues of intrinsic and
extrinsic learner motivation explicitly in the
design of learning sequences supported by
instructional software and in the design of
educational interfaces it becomes possible
to enhance motivation in ways that depend
on the characteristics of the individual
         Motivation Questions
•   Types of Intrinsic?
•   More Malone PhDs?
•   Types of Extrinsic?
•   Relationship to Redundancy
•   Relationship to Group work?
       13. Group Working
By supporting synchronous or
asynchronous group working modes and by
appropriate choice of design to support
competitive, collaborative or
complementary activity it becomes possible
for learners to work in teams and to acquire
higher order learning skills from each other.
      Group Working Questions
•   Formative Assessment?
•   Summative Assessment??
•   Synchronous Vehicles?
•   Asynchronous Vehicles?
•   Peer to Peer?
•   Best group Sizes?
•   Expert to Novice?
 14. Knowledge Integration
By taking a chronological view when
designing instructional software, by
deliberately incorporating appropriate
elements of media redundancy and by
planning for student use of memory
prosthetics it becomes more possible for the
learner to integrate diverse knowledge
acquired at different times.
         Integration Questions
•   Evaluate Best Practice?
•   Which VLEs support?
•   Value of Learning Objects?
•   List Design Vocabulary?
             15. Access
By incorporating diverse prosthetics in
learner interfaces and by designing for
learner autonomy and pacing, it becomes
possible to extend access to learners who
cannot take advantage of conventional
modes of classroom delivery because of
their special social or physical
            Access Questions

•   Refine Prosthetics?
•   Make New Tech Proof?
•   Evaluate Learning Gains?
•   Evaluate Design Gains?
          General Key Issues
• Improving navigation support
• Reducing cognitive cost - especially for
  new learners
• Ensuring approaches scale to 1000s of
  learners and the WWW
• Analysing Success
            Navigation Support
•   Where am I in this information space?
•   Is it really a 2D space, tree, network lattice?
•   Who is also active in the space
•   How can I plan next week’s route?
•   How can I travel between spaces?
•   How can I travel in parallel?
             Cognitive cost
• Different metaphors - physical object,
  spatial, locational, computer-computer, etc.
• Broken metaphors - infinite desktops, etc.
• Mixed metaphors - disks into waste bins,
• Different short cut conventions
• Response time variation
           Analysing Success
•   Micros for Managers
•   Protein Crystallography
•   Edinburgh UG Medical
•   Google
•   Dragon Dictate
•   Mathematica
•   Games, Chat & Mssgng
           Specific Key Issues
•   Assessment
•   VLE Design
•   Role of Library
•   Educational evaluation
•   Economic Evaluation
•   7x24 & portability
•   Theoretical bases
•   How it is changing?
•   How it should change?
•   Formative v Summative?
•   Individual v. Group?
•   Computers in Exams!
                VLE Design
•   Interoperability vital
•   Continuity of Use?
•   Group Identity?
•   Integration of Assessment?
•   Peer Learning tools?
           Library Leadership
•   Digital Curation
•   Image Banks & Portals
•   Online Journals
•   Integration Old & New
•   Always Open!
•   All World’s Libraries!
        Educational Evaluation
•   Learning Gains
•   New Forms of Learning
•   Illuminative Research
•   Learning Trajectories
•   Learning Robustness
•   Retention & Completion
         Economic Evaluation
•   Cost of Developing
•   Cost of Delivering
•   Cost of Maintaining
•   Cost of Migration
•   Substitution V.Augmentation
•   New Audiences?
•   Scalability?
            7x24 - Portability
•   Boxing Day?????
•   Asynchronous work
•   24 hour banking
•   Lightweight Devices
•   Robust
•   Analogue to Digital
       Theoretical Underpinning
•   Cognitive Psychology
•   Philosophy of Education
•   User Interface Design
•   Program Reliability
•   Discourse Analysis
•   Pragmatism, cATHOLIC
•   Technological PUSH
           Top 3 Priorities
• New Models for Assessment
• Deploy Objects – all sorts
• Learning from Libraries

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