Lifestyle Scenarios and the Future of Waste Composition

							Lifestyle Scenarios and the Future of
         Waste Composition

           1st November 2007

              David Fell
          Brook Lyndhurst Ltd
Project Overview

Methodological Approach

Role of Consumption Data

Headline Results

Implications
Project Overview

• Defra-funded, Waste R&D programme
• Primarily qualitative scenario-based approach
• Investigating relationship between lifestyles –
  how people live their lives – and the waste that
  arises as a result
• Complementing other research/analysis
• Feed-in to Waste Strategy 2007 & longer run
  research priorities
Methodological Approach

• Qualitative – extensive desk research, expert
  interviews, discussion groups
• Quantitative – historic (time-use, spending,
  demographics, waste) and projected
  (household projections, modelling)
• Analytical – brainstorming, scenario
  development, lifestyle narratives, waste
  implications (qualitative and quantitative)
Role of Consumption Data

• Historic patterns – category level spending by
  socio-demographic type, explanatory variables
• Relationship to physical mass – AEAT
  calibration
• Distinction between material and de-material
  consumption
• Qualitative futures – explicit judgments on
  scenario feedbacks & feed-forwards
• Quantitative futures – econometric modelling
Results

• Three Scenarios to 2030:
 Blinkered Evolution – consumerism
  maintained
 Civic Renewal – bottom up transformation
  in values
 Strong Government – top down imposition
  of constraints
• Different stories for different waste streams
• Waste growth halted under Scenario B
• Demand side worked better than supply side
                  Results
                                                                               Total Household Waste

              45000


              40000


              35000


              30000
000s tonnes




              25000                                                                                                                                                Scenario A
                                                                                                                                                                   Scenario B
              20000                                                                                                                                                Scenario C



              15000


              10000


              5000


                 0
                  80

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Implications

• The limits to the quantitative at moments of
  change
• The challenge of dissemination
• The questions of sustainability:
    Tonnes of waste – or CO2?
    The limits to de-coupling?
    When should we start thinking about a post-
     consumer society – and who do we tell?