The Future of the Mainframe

The Future of the Mainframe Ideas about the future of the mainframe within the State of Delaware, including some possibilities of extending its capabilities beyond where it is today. Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe HISTORY The first step to anticipating the future is to understand the past! October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 2 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe 1964 IBM delivers the System/360 family of systems wth COBOL and FORTRAN as well as the Basic Assembly Language 1971 IBM delivers the System/370 family with an enhanced instruction set 1973 Introduction of virtual memory on IBM S/370 models 1985 IBM 3090 family with mega-bit memory chips and new cooling technology to shorten the physical chip-to-chip distance 1990 IBM ES/9000 family delivered with fiber-optical I/O channels to provide data flow rates to match processor speeds October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 3 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe The mainframe has exemplified the technology trends of the past 40 years:     Capacity doubling every 18 months Memory doubling every 18 months Physical footprint peaked in 1980’s, then diminished rapidly I/O subsystems parallel the processor in capacity and speed October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 4 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Software Developments  Operating Systems Continuous growth in feature and function Increased reliability and security Improved serviceability through preventive service  Applications Home-grown in 1960’s and 1970’s Shift toward packages in 1980’s and 1990’s Early ERP-like systems in 1990’s October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 5 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Recent History  Processor capacity and footprint trends have continued Environmental footprint similar to a large server  Operating System enhancements Capability of hosting UNIX and LINUX systems Web hosting with native http services Improved Open Systems interfaces  Applications Minimal new development October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 6 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Mainframe Capacities 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 7 WmPenn Biggs Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Prediction  The mainframe will become irrelevant and will be replaced by servers Reality   Online and batch demands on Delaware mainframes have continued to grow. Virtually all States are experiencing the same scenario. October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 8 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe PRESENT Today is the link between the PAST and the FUTURE. October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 9 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Delaware’s mainframe hardware  WmPenn datacenter IBM zSeries 2066-003 with 3 processors and a total of 500 MIPS IBM Enterprise Storage Server (Shark) with capacity of 1.7 TB IBM 3592 Robotic Tape Subsystem October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 10 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Delaware’s mainframe hardware  Biggs datacenter IBM zSeries 2086-A04 with 2 processors and a total of 215 MIPS IBM Enterprise Storage Server (Shark) with capacity of 1.7 TB IBM 3592 Robotic Tape Subsystem October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 11 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Applications hosted - WmPenn         ABC – Alcoholic Beverage Control CJIS – Criminal Justice Information System DCIS – Corporations Information System DFMS – State Accounting System DMV – Titles/Registration/License DOR – Revenue collection Elections – Voter records JIC – Judicial Information System Delaware Technology Conference Slide 12 October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Applications hosted - Biggs     DACSES – Automated Child Support Enforcement System DCIS – DE Client Information System MCI – Master Client Index WIC – Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants and Children October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 13 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe User load  WmPenn mainframe Authorized users Average transactions/minute Average response time ~10,000 ~2,500 < 0.5 sec ~3,000 ~1,000 < 0.5 sec  Biggs mainframe Authorized users Average transactions/minute Average response time October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 14 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe FUTURE What does the future hold for Delaware’s mainframes? October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 15 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Applications  Traditional systems WmPenn – Continued maintenance and limited enhancement of existing applications Biggs – Greater enhancement anticipated at Biggs datacenter  Prediction for existing applications Over 90% will still be in active use in 2010 Over 50% will still be in active use in 2015 Over 25% will still be in active use in 2020 October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 16 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Applications  New Directions The DATA is RICH, WELL-STRUCTURED and UP-TO-DATE The BUSINESS RULES are WELL-DEFINED, DEEPLY IMBEDDED, and STILL CURRENT.  New Demands e-Government – the need to make data available to clients via a web-browser interface Application Integration – the need to share data in real-time across applications October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 17 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Applications  New Capabilities Direct browser access (native http/https) Indirect browser access (via middleware)  New Services Data Interchange Hub concept (web services) Suggest the “Sharing Information Securely” presentation scheduled for this afternoon. October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 18 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Applications  CONCLUSION – The mainframe is well-positioned to satisfy the emerging applications demands in the role of an Enterprise Data Server. October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 19 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Technology Future  Opportunities for SAN exploitation The Storage infrastructure at both datacenters can be exploited to reduce service downtime windows Speeds will continue to improve to meet the increased demand for data access  Disaster Recovery The Storage infrastructure opens up new possibilities for Disaster Recovery  The mainframe itself IBM is as committed as ever to its future October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 20 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe Risks / Concerns     Skilled mainframe infrastructure personnel Skilled mainframe applications personnel Legislative or regulatory changes that cannot be satisfied by existing systems Stability of mainframe software vendors October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 21 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe SUMMARY      Future for Existing Applications GOOD Future for New Applications GOOD Future for New data services EXCELLENT Future for Infrastructure EXCELLENT Future for Skilled Support BIG ISSUE October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 22 Delaware Technology Conference The Future of the Mainframe QUESTIONS? October 18, 2005 Delaware Technology Conference Slide 23