Climate Change, Seasonality Environmental Hazards in Southeast by agl27658


									Climate Change, Seasonality
& Environmental Hazards in
Southeast Asia
Michael H. Glantz,                Bangkok, Thailand
Organizer                         6-9 March 2006
Senior Scientist,
National Center for Atmospheric   Ambassador Hotel
            Workshop Agenda 6-9 March 2006

Monday, March 6
9:00 to 9:30 – Introduction to workshop                    3:15 to 3:45 – Break
                                                           3:45 to 5:00 – Starting Climate Affairs at a university: Open
9:30 to 10:00 – Participants’ Roundtable Introduction
10:00 to 10:45 – Workshop Objectives
10:45 to 11:15 – Break                                     Wednesday, March 8
11:15 to 12:00 – Capacity Building: Education & Training   9:00 to 10:30 – Introduction of notions: Superstorms,
12:00 to 1:30 – Lunch                                           Forecasting by Analogy, Creeping Environmental Changes
1:30 to 3:00 – Seasonality: Science to Equity              10:30 to 11:00 – Break
3:00 to 3:30 – Break                                       11:00 to 12:30 – SWOC assessment for Climate Affairs
3:30 to 4:15 – Southeast Asia Hazards                      12:30 to 2:00 – Lunch
                                                           2:00 to 3:00 – Implementation of Climate Affairs
4:15 to 4:45 – Seasons in Human Health
                                                           3:00 to 3:30 – Break
4:45 to 5:15 – Human Activities and Seasonality
                                                           3:30 to 4:30 – Climate Affairs and capacity building on campus
                                                           4:30 to 5:00 – Open Discussion
Tuesday, March 7
8:30 to 9:45 – Country Presentations                       Thursday, March 9
9:45 to 10:30 – Seasonal concerns for Southeast Asia       9:00 to 9:45 – Review of interlinkages
10:30 to 11:00 – Break                                     9:45 to 10:15 – Break
11:00 to 11:45 – Coping with seasonal hazards              10:15 to 11:00 – South and Southeast Asia in 2015
11:45 to 12:15 – Global warming: A brief overview          11:00 to 12:00 – Back to basics: Revisiting workshop goals
12:15 to 1:30 – Lunch                                      12:00 to 1:30 - Lunch
1:30 to 2:30 – Focus on global warming                     Adjourn
2:30 to 3:15 – A step beyond adaptation

     Roundtable introductions
     Day 1: 09:00-09:30
Organizer: Michael Glantz, NCAR                Co-Organizer: Zafar Adeel, INWEH

Sarath Abayakoon, U Paredeniya, Sri Lanka      Qiang Liu, Beijing, China

Khairulmaini BOS, U Malaya, Kuala Lumpur       Suwanna Panturat, SWU, Bangkok

Sanjay Chaturvedi, Panjab U,New Delhi, India   Selvaraju Ramasamy, ADPC, Bangkok

Suppakorn Chinvanno, START, Bangkok            Elizabeth Remedio, U San Carlos, Philippines

Ramon del Fierro, U San Carlos, Philippines    Yuan Ren, Fudan U, Shanghai, China

S.H.M. Fakhruddin (Bapon), ADPC, Bangkok       Azmi Sharom, U Malaya, Kuala Lumpur

Marilou Gallos, U San Carlos, Philippines      Anond Snidvongs, START, Bangkok

Greg Guibert, U Colorado, Boulder, CO          Sarah Stapleton, U Colorado, Boulder, CO

Ritchie Anne Guzman, PATLEPAM, Philippines     Chinda Tambungchong, SWU, Bangkok
                                               Hoang Thanh Tung, Water Resources U, Hanoi,
A Hamid A Hadi, U Malaya, Kuala Lumpur
LeeNah Hsu, Ottawa, Ontario                    Qian Ye, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Nguyen Quang Kim, Water Resources U, Ho Chi
                                               D.Jan Stewart, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Minh City, Vietnam

Workshop Goals

   What is the notion of Climate Affairs?
   Why care about climate-society-
    environment interactions?
   Previous work on Climate Affairs in
    Southeast Asia
   Explore climate change, seasonality,
    hazards nexus in Climate Affairs

Monday, 6 March 2006
Day 1:
09:30-10:00: Why we are here

     Introduction to workshop and key
     Is the 21st Century the Climate

Climate Affairs purpose
   to foster the development of Climate Affairs Programs at
    colleges, universities, and other educational training institutes
    around the globe.
   to develop an awareness among educators and trainers in a
    variety of disciplines that climate affects all aspects of life in
    rich and poor countries alike, and that decision makers can
    improve the way they are affected by enhancing their
    understanding of climate affairs.
   to build the capacity of institutions and individuals to deal
    with climate-related issues.
   A Climate Affairs Program enables students, trainers and
    educators alike to concentrate part of their educational
    experience in an area of research, impacts, application, and
    policy centering on the climate system and on climate-related

Organizers’ Objectives
Day 1: 10:00-10:45

Three objectives:
     Enhance interest in Climate Affairs (or
      climate, water, weather affairs) in
      Southeast Asia regionally and nationally.

     Explore interactions among climate,
      seasonality, and environmental hazards.

     Encourage consideration of developing
      university Climate Affairs activities and
      developing a regional Climate Affairs

Capacity Building:
Developing Country (UNDP) Definition

Capacity building is defined as:

   The creation of an enabling environment

 Institutional development and community

   Human resource development

UNDP recognizes that capacity building is a long-term,
continuing process, in which all stakeholders


Capacity Building:
Education & Training Activities

Day 1: 11:15-12:00
   What we see as Capacity Building:
    institutional and individual
   Foster interest in possible Climate
    Affairs programs and activities
   Identify level of potential interest for
    each university or training center
   Discuss Viewbooks

Climate Affairs Template Components

                   Climate science
                   Climate impacts
                           on societies
                           on ecosystems
                   Climate policy & law
                   Climate politics
                   Climate economics
                   Climate ethics & equity

Seasonality definitions
   The changing availability of resources according to the different
    seasons of the year

   Periodic fluctuations in the climate related to seasons of the year
    e.g. wet winters, drier summers

   Many time series display seasonality. By seasonality, we mean
    periodic fluctuations.
   Seasons are defined differently in different environments and by
    different societies.

   Of or dependent on a particular season

   Cyclicality in a business or the economy from one season to the

   Changes in business, employment or buying patterns which occur
    predictably at given times of the year.

From Science to Ethics & Equity
Day 1: 13:30-15:00

   “Seasonality”: The PowerPoint
       Science of seasonality
       Definitions and perspectives
       Impacts on society and ecosystems
       Policy and law
       Politics
       Economics
       Ethics and equity
   Open discussion

       Climate and
       map: Australia

Examples of seasonality

                          15 hazards/events_2004_10.html

Hazards in General
(affecting Southeast Asia annual cycle)
Day 1: 15:30-16:15
Regional hazards
      Tropical storms
      ENSO cycle (droughts, floods)
      Fires, haze
      Mudslides
      Disease outbreaks
      Tsunamis

      Others?

An Example: El Niño and Health
   The irregular occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events has
    implications for public health. On a global scale, the human
    effect of natural disasters increases during El Niño.
   The effect of ENSO on cholera risk in Bangladesh and malaria
    epidemics in parts of South Asia and South America has been
    well established. The strongest evidence for an association
    between ENSO and disease is provided by time-series analysis
    with data series that include more than one event.
   Evidence for ENSO's effect on other mosquito-borne and
    rodent-borne diseases is weaker than that for malaria and
    cholera. Health planners are used to dealing with spatial risk
    concepts but have little experience with temporal risk
   ENSO and seasonal climate forecasts might offer the
    opportunity to target scarce resources for epidemic control
    and disaster preparedness (Kovats et al., 2004).

Seasons and Human Health
Day 1: 16:15-16:45
 Identify and discuss known links between
  seasons and human health
 From Ebi, et al, “Integration of public health
  with adaptation to climate change”
         Heat-related illnesses and deaths
         Extreme weather events-related health
         Air pollution-related health effects
         Water and food-borne diseases
         Vector- and rodent-borne diseases

  Ecosystems are at risk too!

Coral reefs under siege

                          Replanting mangroves

Human Activities & Seasonality
Day 1: 16:45-17:15

   How might human activities affect the
    natural rhythm of the seasons?

Country or organization presentation

Malaysia    The Philippines   Thailand

China         India           Sri Lanka

START/SEA     ADPC            Vietnam


    Tuesday, 7 March 2006
Day 2: 08:30-9:45

   5-7 minute
    The various ways
    that people and
    accommodate to
    the seasons

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation
        Interannual Cycle

Seasonal concerns for SE Asia
Day 2: 09:45-10:30
   Discuss existing (expected) flow of the
    seasons and year-to-year variability in
    the “Greater” Southeast Asia
   Discuss the obvious and identify the
    not-so-obvious impacts of the seasons
    on human society (“ripple effects” in
    time and space)

Hurricanes and tropical storms/ El Nino
(usually occur in summer and autumn)
(they originate between 5 deg N and 20 deg S of equator)

   During a typical El Nino year (year +1),
    tropical cyclone activity is:
       Reduced in the Atlantic Basin
       Caribbean, southern USA, central America
       Reduced in the western part of the NW
       Reduced off NE Australia; slightly reduced
        off western and northern Australia
       Increased in eastern part of NW Pacific
       Increased in south and central Pacific
       Slight increase in eastern north Pacific

Hurricanes and tropical storms La Nina

   During a typical La Nina (year +1), tropical
    cyclone activity is:
       Increase in the Atlantic Basin
       Increased in the western part of the NW
       Increased off NE Australia and slightly
        reduced off W and N Australia
       Reduced in the E part of the NW Pacific
       Reduced in the S and central Pacific

Coping with Seasonal Hazards
Day 2: 11:00-11:45
How well are individuals and governments
 Why might coping ability vary from one year to
  the next?
 “What ought to be” vs. “what is”

 Could they cope better in theory?

       In practice?
      What are the constraints?
   Review Cuba’s record for disaster awareness,
    preparedness, and response.
       Any insights from this case scenario?

Global Warming: A Brief Overview

Day 2: 11:45-12:15

   Science, Impacts, Ethics & Equity
   Suggested impacts of global warming
    on extremes
   “Guesstimates” about climate change
    on regional extremes
   Decision-making under uncertainty


Focus on Global Warming
Day 2: 13:30-14:30

   Suggestions about impacts of climate
    change on Southeast Asia
   Suggestions about options (in theory
    and reality) for adaptation and
    mitigation in Southeast Asia
          Suggestions about adaptation and
           mitigation in general

      A hazard’s “ripple effect” - “unintended consequences

                                              Hurricane Katrina: a sad “teaching moment”
   Houston, Texas blog
I'm sure I am going to get some negative
responses, but I am needing a place to
vent, so here goes.

You all remember how Houston opened
up its arms and welcomed the New
Orleans evacuees, well we are being
repaid in spades.

My S's high school has changed
dramatically, unbelievably. I cannot say it
any other way. It was a large public
suburban hs, with a population consisting
of mostly kids from single family homes
(mostly white, some asian, latin, african-
american), with a smaller group of less
fortunate kids (but not poverty stricken,
mostly african-american and latin).
Honestly, EVERYONE got along: NO
fights, NO armed police, NO metal
detectors. Well, it has certainly changed.
The school has taken in a large number of
evacuees due to the fact that an
apartment complex nearby accepted
FEMA vouchers. NOW, the school is in

A Step Beyond Adaptation
Day 2: 14:30-15:15

   Mitigating the impacts of adaptation to
    climate change
   Enhancing adaptive capacity
          Reduce vulnerability
          Strengthening coping capabilities

Open Discussion
Day 2: 15:45-17:00

   Can climate/weather/water affairs
    activities be incorporated into
    university settings?
   Can interest in climate-related issues
    be generated and sustained in different
    disciplines and university centers?
   “Straw course” on Climate Affairs

      mudslides          Creeping environmental
                                                     Climate, Water &
                                                     Weather Impacts

                                                       Seasons of superstorms?

                                 Rates & processes
         floods                  of deforestation

                         Early warning systems
                                                             High impact weather
Forecasting by analogy

        Wednesday, 8 March 2006
Day 3: 09:00-10:30

   Introduction to Notions:
       Superstorms & “Seasons of Superstorms”
            High-impact weather and climate
            Presentation of Hurricane Katrina’s impacts
             and responses
       Forecasting by analogy
       Creeping environmental change
       Early warning systems

Participants prepare a SWOC
Day 3: 11:00-12:30

   Possibility to develop a Climate
    Affairs activity on each participating
    institution: A SWOC review (to
    identify strengths, weaknesses,
    opportunities, constraints)

for developing a Climate Affairs University activity
  Strengths   Weaknesses   Opportunities   Constraints

Implementation of Climate Affairs

Day 3: 14:00-15:00

   Discussion:
       Participants discuss their SWOC
   Practical issues

Capacity Building for Early Warning
   What does it mean to “build capacity?”

            Institutional
            Creating a “culture of prevention”
              What are the ethical aspects of capacity building?
   “Capacity building by proxy”
   Is the call for “capacity building” sincere or just a palliative?

Climate Affairs & Capacity Building
on campus

Day 3: 15:30-16:30

   At the university level: Open
    discussion among participants
   Introduce notion of “Spare Time

Something to think about
“I said that I wasn’t clever.
I was just noticing how things were, and
  that wasn’t clever. That was just being
Being clever was when you looked at
  how things are
and used the evidence to work out
  something new.”
                            (Mark Haddon, 2002)

Thursday, 9 March 2006
Day 4: 09:00-09:45

   Review of inter-linkages of
       Food production
       Water resources
       Hazards
       Public health
       Air pollution and fires
       Infectious diseases

Discussion about the states of the world, of the
environment and of South and Southeast Asia in

   ASIA 2015 - Promoting Growth, Ending Poverty
   Over the past two decades, more people have been lifted
    out of poverty in Asia than in any other region at any other
    time in history. In the next decade, there is the chance to
    fulfill the potential of this success story - the world is
    presented with an historic opportunity to end poverty in
    Asia .
   To achieve this ambitious goal, many challenges lie ahead.
    Despite Asia's success, two thirds of the world's poor still
    live in the region, held back by poor nutrition and health,
    limited educational opportunities and lack of access to
    water and sanitation. Tackling these issues will require
    sustained economic growth, good governance and
    visionary leadership.
   The Asia 2015 conference, to be held in London on 6-7
    March 2006 will bring together key decision-makers from
    Asia and across the world to learn from Asia's success, to
    identify future challenges and solutions, and to build new
    alliances to fight poverty.

South & Southeast Asia in 2015
Day 4: 10:15-11:00

   South & Southeast Asia in 2015:
          What can we expect?

Activities to date based on
                    the Affairs template
   Coastal Urban Affairs (Shanghai, China; int’l cities)
   Water Affairs (WMO Hydrology)
   El Nino Affairs (under development)
   Weather Affairs (PowerPoint developed, USA)
   Desert Affairs (Xinjiang University, China)
   Climate Affairs (University of Malaya; U. of Melbourne,
   Climate and Society Affairs (Islamabad, Pakistan)
   Climate and Society (Columbia University, USA)
   Mountain Affairs (Chengdu, China)
   Island Affairs (NCAR, USA)
   Center for Capacity Building (NCAR, USA)
   Proposed: “All-Africa Center for climate, water and
    weather Affairs”

Revisiting the Workshop’s Goals:
back to basics

Day 4: 11:00-12:00

   Enhance interest in Climate Affairs
   Explore interactions among climate,
    seasonality, and environmental
   Consider a regional Climate Affairs
   Where can we go from here?


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