Climate Change Policy A Role for Philanthropies

							   Climate Change Policy:
  A Role for Philanthropies
                    Presented at
Great Debates in Environmental Policy and Philanthropy
              Philanthropy Roundtable
                  4 October 2006


               Michael Oppenheimer
                Princeton University
          My focus today…
• What is the current policy landscape?

• What may happen next in the policy
  arena?

• Which outcomes desirable, which not?

• Where do philanthropies have leverage?
   Where does science stand?
• Human-made climate change underway and measurable

• Warming will increase indefinitely, absent significant
  greenhouse-gas emissions reductions

• Long term risks are large: Concern that key thresholds
  are near, but uncertainty is large

• Greenhouse gases have very long lifetimes: crossing a
  threshold means locking in the consequences for a long,
  long time.
Beyond the scientific community…
• Public aware and concerned, if not
  engaged on urgency

• Policies, including regulation, are being
  implemented at all levels of government;
  but insufficient to prevent continuous
  warming

Gears are aligning: a chance to solve the
 problem and get it right.
Most Promising Development…

Governor Schwarzenegger is using the
 climate issue to increase his chances of
 re-election in a close campaign.

           …..Paraphrase, critic of recent
 California global warming legislation
Meanwhile, Making Things Worse: Atlantic City
 Policy Arena: What’s Happening?
States:

• California regulations:
    ---on ghg’s from cars: -30% vs 2002 fleet by 2016 beginning with
  2009 model year
   ---state cap on industrial emissions: 1990 levels by 2020

• About 10 other states would follow Calif. rules if…

• RGGI states: -10% vs 1990 by 2018 on powerplants

• Planning, etc., in many other states
                 Policy Arena…
International:

• Kyoto implementation: Potential for two-way
  emissions trading with California, RGGI, etc.

• Carbon markets

• Discussion of post-Kyoto agreement (developing
  countries?)
              Policy Arena…
Litigation:

•   Supreme Court: is CO2 subject to CAA?
      (Mass vs EPA)
•   Federal nuisance litigation (Conn vs. AEP)

•   Calif vs 6 automakers for damages
                  Policy Arena…
Inside the Beltway: Current policy (voluntary, technology)
                     What’s Next

                             ?
• Mandatory program inevitable

• An effective program is NOT inevitable: could be anything from
  comprehensive cap-and-trade to ineffective regulation combined
  with big technology subsidies

• Design matters: even a comprehensive approach can run off the
  rails on the details.
          Alternative Futures
                              I.
• Successful state-level action builds to a national program

• Implementation of federal, economy-wide cap plus
  smaller scale command and control and subsidy applied
  judiciously and where appropriate only

• International negotiations to build post-Kyoto regime,
  perhaps with limited US participation at first

• Eventually, US fully engaged in international framework,
  perhaps beginning with partnerships including India and
  China, et al.
                    Or…
                     II.
• Litigation

• Trade sanctions

• Same outcome, but slower, less
  effective, more costly
 Efforts that fell short, mistakes
             to avoid
• Voluntary approaches, uncapped emissions market won’t get close
  to solving the problem: No bite

• Technology programs without regulation and/or picking winners is
  dangerous waste of time and money in the commercial arena:
  --Synfuels
  --Much of nuclear past

This is neither Manhattan nor Apollo!
• Ok for litigation to drive but not decide: asbestos

(Note similarities to Bush Administration plans)
Past successes to learn from…
• Title IV, US Clean Air Act 1990

• DoE research-regulation mix

• CAFE (fuel economy regulation)

• New York City water tunnel and water use:
 Policy + Pricing (or cap) plus long term view
           What activity is worth
               supporting?
• State-level public information/organization (regional + national
  groups working together)

• Demonstration projects that help markets develop/ helping firms
  anticipate future regulation

• Studies of regional impacts

• Organizing for federal legislation/ public education

• International: Helping China et al build emissions reduction
  “infrastructure”

• Litigation

• Adaptation: regional groups

• Academia: How does technology advance?
            What to avoid
• Complex schemes with multiple
  objectives: tax re-balance

• Direct funding for technologies

• Relying on high energy prices