The Future of Nuclear Energy in France and Germany

The Future of Nuclear Energy in France and Germany Tim Reinhardt Dhruv Mohta Loraine Roy Outline     Background Information: Timeline, Issues with Nuclear Energy Nuclear Energy Industry of France: as base load Nuclear Energy Industry of Germany: nuclear phase-out Verdict: Energy mix for future Timeline         1940s: WW II, explosives 1950s: Nuclear for power generation 1960s: Commercial nuclear reactors, US 1970s: Oil Embargo, sudden interest in Nuclear 1979: Three Mile Island 1986: Chernobyl 1998: Nuclear phase out by Germany 2002-persent: Renewed interest in Nuclear, GHG emissions Global Overview • France: 78%, second largest producer • Germany: 28% • Largest producer: US Issues  Costs*:    Nuclear $2000/KW Coal $1300/KW Gas $500/KW    Safety Waste Disposal: geologic disposal Proliferation: from reprocessing units * The future of nuclear power, MIT study, 2003 Energy-mix of France 78% electricity generation by nuclear Energy-mix of Germany 28% electricity generation by nuclear 55% by coal FRANCE Nuclear power and the future French energy mix Loraine Roy French and German Energy mix ENERGY RESOURCES GERMANY FRANCE Net electricity production (TW/h) 591,3 549,1 % fossil energy 56 26 4 5 9 10 78 11 0,4 0,6 % nuclear energy % hydroelectric energy % wind power % other energy resources CO2 emissions per combustion (millions of tons 2005) 872 353 French energy mix NUCLEAR Source: IEA Factors leading France to rely mostly on nuclear (1/4)   A post-WWII strategy Current nuclear park and costs Factors leading France to rely mostly on nuclear (2/4)  Alternatives sources   Some are developing (Geothermy, bioenergy) Many could be more developed…(Wind power, solar, small hydrolic)  …but could not be baseload     Saturation of the huge hydrolic Reluctance to wind power and small hydrolic Lack of resources (coal) Unpredictable (wind, solar) Factors leading France to rely mostly on nuclear (3/4)  The climate change issue / argument    Factor 4 requirements Deadline for Global Warming action Climate change risk v. nuclear risk  Experience and expertise in nuclear    Energy independence Commercial value Viable in a regulated market as in a deregulated one (Luis E. Echavani (OECD ) Factors leading France to rely mostly on nuclear (4/4)  Carbon price Source: IEA 2001 Limits of the French strategy   Feedbacks of the global warming Scenario A2 IPCC, evolution of the rainfall, 20702100 Winter Spring Fall Summer Limits of the French strategy  “Small contribution” at a global level Opportunity cost for alternatives energy resources (Pierre Radanne) Abscence of public opinion / Centralism « Bad communication » on the nuclear issue     “nuclear catches all the attention” (Jean-Marc Jancovici) Germany’s Nuclear Future Tim Reinhardt 20 February 2008 Germany’s Electricity Sector Nuclear Power Replacement Alternative Energy Sources Nuclear vs. Environment Nuclear Politics  Public Sentiment  Green Party Influence  Chancellor Merkel and the CDU Predictions    Maintain the status quo in the near future Changes in government coalition could result in rollback of plant closure deadlines in the mid-term Impacts of Kyoto Protocol Stipulations Conclusion    France and Germany: opposite spectrum of political views about nuclear France: Likely to maintain a similar energymix Germany: Nuclear phased out by 2022?, R&D in renewables, efficiency and carbon capture and storage