Convention on Long-range Trans-boundary Air Pollution by qcr20525


									  Convention on Long-range Trans-
      boundary Air Pollution

    Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling
                     31st meeting

            8-9 December 2005, Gothenburg, Sweden

                        Matti Johansson

      secretary to the Working Group on Effects – and TFIAM
     United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)

                                                  49 Parties to the Convention

                                                                                                            Barents Sea                              Kara Sea

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Artic Ocean


                                                                                                                                                                                          Pacific Ocean

                                                                             Finland                                                                                                                             United States
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 of America
                  North Sea                                                                                                                                                                                       of America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Atlantic Ocean
                                           Norway        Sweden
                                                                                 Estonia                                  Russian Federation

                                           Denmark                          Lithuania

    Ireland                                                                             Belarus
                   United                                          Poland
                   Kingdom       Netherlands
                                 Belgium       Germany
                                                         Czech Rep.                               Ukraine
                              Luxembourg                              Slovakia
                          France                    Liechtenstein    Hungary             Moldova
                                     Switzerland                                                                                                                Aral
Atlantic Ocean                                              Slovenia             Romania                                                                        Sea
                                                             Bosnia and
                                   Monaco                  Herzegovina Yugoslavia
                                                                          Serbia and                        Black Sea                                                               Kyrgyzstan
                                                                                     Bulgaria                                             Caspian
                                                                          Montenegro                                        Georgia
                                                          Italy               F.Y.R.of                                                         Sea
                                                                      Albania Macedonia
                                                                                                                            Armenia     Azerbaijan
                                                                            Greece                               Turkey

                                                                Mediterranean Sea                           Cyprus

                                            UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
     Organization of the Convention
                                           Executive Body             Implementation Committee

Working Group on                              EMEP                                       Working Group on
     Effects                               Steering Body                               Strategies and Review

           ICP              Programme             Task Force                                   Expert Group
         Forests            Coordinating    on Emission Inventories                        on Ammonia Abatement
        Task Force            Centre            and Projections

            ICP                                   Task Force                                       Task Force
   Integrated Monitoring     Programme         on Measurement                                       on POPs
        Task Force                              and Modelling

            ICP                                   Chemical                                   Network of Experts
   Modelling and Mapping     n Center
                                                 Coordinating                                  on Benefits and
        Task Force          for Effects            Centre                                   Economic Instruments

           ICP                                  Meteorological                                  Expert Group
         Materials         Main Research         Synthesizing                             on Techno-economic Issues
        Task Force             Centre           Centre - West

           ICP                                  Meteorological                                     Task Force
        Vegetation                               Synthesizing                                    on Heavy Metals
        Task Force          Programme           Centre - East

           ICP                                   Task Force                                     Expert Group
         Waters                                 on Integrated                                on Particulate Matter
        Task Force          Programme       Assessment Modelling
        Task Force                                  Centre
         on Health                              for Integrated
                              WHO           Assessment Modelling
                                                  Task Force
                                           on Hemispheric Transport
                                                of Air Pollution
                  The Protocols

 Increase ambition levels stepwise
 Implementation of and compliance with
  Protocols in force
    – 1985 and 1994 Sulphur Protocols
    – 1988 NOx Protocol
    – 1991 VOC Protocol
    – 1998 Heavy Metals Protocol
    – 1998 POP Protocol
    – 1999 Gothenburg Protocol
       · multi-pollutant multi-effect
       · review process expected to be initiated by EB in December
    Draft conclusions from effects
          workshops in 2005

 Dynamic N processes; Brighton, UK
    – several biogeochemical models for various uses
    – empirical and mechanistic biodiversity impacts
 Ozone; Obergurgl, A
    – recommends ozone flux method for ecosystems
    – no thresholds
    – for (semi-)natural concentration (AOT) at this stage
    – generic/model species for risk assessment in IAM
 Nitrogen cascades; Braunschweig, G
    – state of knowledge on links and pathways
    – separation of NO3 and NH4
    Working Group on Effects, 2005

 Effects-based emission reduction strategies
 New [draft] long-term strategy
 New critical and target loads
     – acidification (CL, TL)
     – eutrophication (CL)
     – heavy metals (CL; Pb, Cd, Hg)
 Cooperation between CCE and CIAM
 Importance of the EECCA region (Eastern
  Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia)
                 Topical issues

 Expected 1999 Gothenburg Protocol review
    – role of particulate matter (PM)
    – harmonized land use data
 Improved emission and abatement data
    – uncertainties with primary PM
 New information on effects
    – dynamics of acidification (recovery process)
    – ozone flux approach
    – biodiversity
 Awareness of CAFE/NECD process

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