The Future of Fiber by mirit35

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									The Future of Fiber

    Lowell Ackerman
    Phuoc Cao
    Tony Cho
    David Rice
Fiber Basics
Gilder’s Law

Bandwidth will triple every 12 months (at
  least until 2022)

Corollary ---- The cost of bandwidth will
  be halved every 18 months
The Need

 Consumers are using faster
  computers, larger applications,
  streaming video, etc.
 Legacy copper installations are
  overtaxed and at the limits of
  their bandwidth
 Interim technologies (cable,
  DSL) can only provide about 10
 Full-screen, full-motion video
  requires 100-200 Mbps
Why fiber?

Internet backbone is already based on
 optical fiber
Photons have no mass, so no limit to how
 many can be crammed into a fiber
Near instantaneous and near limitless
 bandwidth (1015bps)
Corollary implies costs will become less
 than for copper
Telecosm (Gilder)

High-spectrum communication
Wireless networks
Fiber technology

Dense wavelength division multiplexing
 (DWDM) divides light into different colors
Erbium-doped amplifier allows signals to
 remain pure and strong over long distances
Possible to put 10b bps of information on a
 wavelength, 1000 wavelength on a single
 fiber and 864 fibers in a single cable
This is more transmitted in a second than
 annual telecommunication traffic of 1997

North American carriers laying 11 million
 km of fiber in 2000 alone
Legacy copper installations are bottleneck
Last mile
Desktops are electronic, not optical
Economics of Gilder’s Law and corollary
Fiber Technology Changes in
The Next Ten Years
Next Three Years

 Technology: channels, miles, material
 Infrastructure change:
   - Increasing bandwidth in the backbone
   - fiber optics penetrate in metro & regional loop
 Network cost: $100,000 to $25,000 by 2003
 Effect: - business consolidate info acquisition &
               processing practice
            - no residential user change
 BW Hog: Internet
Next Three to Five Years

 Technology: optical switching
 Infrastructure change:
   - fiber optics in metro & regional loop
   - penetration into large business and campuses
 Network cost: $10,000 by 2005
 Effect: - teleconferencing for business
            - near zero long distance cost for
 BW Hog: Streaming video
Next Five to 10 Years

 Technology: optical computing
 Infrastructure change:
   - all optical network to business by 2007
   - all optical network to homes by 2010
 Network cost: $1,000 by 2010
 Effect: - business – client-server computing
            - home – ready for optical computers
 BW Hog: Broadband service (virtual reality, on-
  demand entertainment)
Wireless Applications
Also part of Gilder’s Telecosm

Internet Access from a variety of devices, not
 just personal computers.
Use of Wireless Handheld Devices (PDAs,
 Cellular Phones, Enhanced Pagers, etc.) is
Mobile phone subscribers expected to increase
 five times by 2004
Wireless Application Protocol (WAP)

* An open, global specification communications protocol
* Enables Internet and web access from wireless handheld devices.
* A three-tiered network architecture
Wireless Application Protocol (WAP)

Format that fits small
 screen devices
Supports a mobile workforce
 and mobile businesses.
Can quickly become an
 industry standard protocol
Policy Issues
Broadband Policy Issues

 “The future of the Internet will be shaped more by
policy choices than technology choices,”
  Steve Case, Chairman and CEO, America Online

 Collision of Market and Political Forces
 Old Economy vs. New Economy
Drivers of Government
Intervention in the Market
Consumers’ need for “security.”
Business’ desire for stability.
Losers seeking relief.
Winners wanting to cement their lead.
The Internet’s role as official channel.
Political Landscape

IT Industry Contributions (in millions)
   20                                          Contributions


   10                                          PAC

    5                                          Soft Money

        1990   1992   1994   1996 1998 2000*
Issues Brief

 Open Access
 Digital Divide
 Foreign Ownership of “Critical Infrastructure”
 Legal Limitations on Market Convergence
 Deregulation Growing Pains
 Public Sector Turf Battles
 Government Competition
 Strategic Competitive (and Legal) Exploitation
 The Old Economy’s Good Ol’ Boys Tactics
 Broadband Hog Private Police Squad
The End … for now!

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