The Future of Fiber Lowell Ackerman Phuoc Cao Tony Cho David Rice Fiber Basics Gilder’s Law Bandwidth will triple every 12 months (at least until 2022) Corollary ---- The cost of bandwidth will be halved every 18 months The Need Consumers are using faster computers, larger applications, streaming video, etc. Legacy copper installations are overtaxed and at the limits of their bandwidth Interim technologies (cable, DSL) can only provide about 10 Mbps Full-screen, full-motion video requires 100-200 Mbps Why fiber? Internet backbone is already based on optical fiber Photons have no mass, so no limit to how many can be crammed into a fiber Near instantaneous and near limitless bandwidth (1015bps) Corollary implies costs will become less than for copper Telecosm (Gilder) Fiberoptics High-spectrum communication Wireless networks Fiber technology Dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) divides light into different colors Erbium-doped amplifier allows signals to remain pure and strong over long distances Possible to put 10b bps of information on a wavelength, 1000 wavelength on a single fiber and 864 fibers in a single cable This is more transmitted in a second than annual telecommunication traffic of 1997 Challenges North American carriers laying 11 million km of fiber in 2000 alone Legacy copper installations are bottleneck Last mile Desktops are electronic, not optical Economics of Gilder’s Law and corollary Fiber Technology Changes in The Next Ten Years Next Three Years Technology: channels, miles, material Infrastructure change: - Increasing bandwidth in the backbone - fiber optics penetrate in metro & regional loop Network cost: $100,000 to $25,000 by 2003 Effect: - business consolidate info acquisition & processing practice - no residential user change BW Hog: Internet Next Three to Five Years Technology: optical switching Infrastructure change: - fiber optics in metro & regional loop - penetration into large business and campuses Network cost: $10,000 by 2005 Effect: - teleconferencing for business - near zero long distance cost for residential BW Hog: Streaming video Next Five to 10 Years Technology: optical computing Infrastructure change: - all optical network to business by 2007 - all optical network to homes by 2010 Network cost: $1,000 by 2010 Effect: - business – client-server computing - home – ready for optical computers BW Hog: Broadband service (virtual reality, on- demand entertainment) 2010 Wireless Applications WIRELESS APPLICATION: Also part of Gilder’s Telecosm Internet Access from a variety of devices, not just personal computers. Use of Wireless Handheld Devices (PDAs, Cellular Phones, Enhanced Pagers, etc.) is increasing. Mobile phone subscribers expected to increase five times by 2004 Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) * An open, global specification communications protocol * Enables Internet and web access from wireless handheld devices. * A three-tiered network architecture Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) Format that fits small screen devices Supports a mobile workforce and mobile businesses. Can quickly become an industry standard protocol Policy Issues Broadband Policy Issues “The future of the Internet will be shaped more by policy choices than technology choices,” Steve Case, Chairman and CEO, America Online Collision of Market and Political Forces Old Economy vs. New Economy Drivers of Government Intervention in the Market Consumers’ need for “security.” Business’ desire for stability. Losers seeking relief. Winners wanting to cement their lead. The Internet’s role as official channel. Political Landscape IT Industry Contributions (in millions) 25 Total 20 Contributions Individual 15 10 PAC 5 Soft Money 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000* Issues Brief Open Access Digital Divide Foreign Ownership of “Critical Infrastructure” Legal Limitations on Market Convergence Deregulation Growing Pains Public Sector Turf Battles Government Competition Strategic Competitive (and Legal) Exploitation The Old Economy’s Good Ol’ Boys Tactics Broadband Hog Private Police Squad The End … for now!
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