The Future of Food Supply Veterinary Medicine Demand, Supply ...

The Future of Food Supply Veterinary Medicine: Demand, Supply, Opportunities and Challenges Presentation by Dr. Lyle Vogel Chair of the Project Management Committee, Food Supply Veterinary Medicine Coalition Estimating FSVM Demand and Maintaining the Availability of Veterinarians for Careers in FSVM David Andrus PhD Kevin Gwinner PhD Bruce Prince PhD AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ FSVMC Members Academy of Veterinary Consultants American Association of Avian Pathologists American Association of Bovine Practitioners American Association of Food Hygiene Veterinarians American Association of Small Ruminant Practitioners American Association of Swine Veterinarians American Veterinary Medical Association Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service Mission of FSVMC ♦ To maintain abundant, safe and wholesome food by ensuring that veterinarians are appropriately involved throughout the food supply system. ♦ The premise is that foods produced are enhanced, both in safety and wholesomeness, when veterinarians are involved in all steps of production and processing. Why This Research Program? A shortage of FSVM professionals may have critical implications for the profession, employers, societal well-being, and prosperity. Two Research Programs (Funded by Coalition members and Bayer Animal Health) A series of U.S. & Canadian studies organized around two research programs: ♦ Career attraction and career retention research program ♦Attracting students ♦Retaining students and graduates ♦ Labor market demand research program Objectives of Career Attraction and Career Retention Research Program 1. Identify and evaluate existing and emerging factors (societal and economic) affecting students attracted to FSVM in the United States and Canada. 2. Determine how to recruit students, and develop and/or maintain students’ interest in FSVM while in US and Canadian veterinary schools. 3. Determine factors that affect selection of employment by FSVM graduates in the United States and Canada. 4. Determine how to retain recent graduates for 5+ years in FSVM in the United States and Canada. Sample Design Recruiters Students Attraction, Selection, Retention Deans Food Animal Faculty Alumni Student Attraction ♦ Factors that determine students selecting a particular career focus in veterinary medicine ♦ Student expectations for FSVM careers ♦ Factors that determine making a lifelong commitment to FSVM Student Attraction Findings – Focus Groups          Life Experiences Educational Debt and Salary Important and Interesting Work Family Considerations Job Availability Physical Demands of the Job Lifestyle Issues – Geography and Time Animal Care Mentality Experiences in Veterinary School Student Attraction Findings – Surveys Students with FSVM Interest      Career is intellectually challenging Vital that job is personally meaningful Rural lifestyle Herd or flock care mentality FSVM allows full utilization of medical knowledge  Strong mentorship valued in first job  Believe services are valued by producers Student Attraction Findings – Surveys Potential strategies to attract students 1. 2. 3. 4. Student debt repayment Paid summer externships Assistance to purchase practice equipment Mentoring-shadowing program for high school students 5. Job placement services 6. Assigned faculty mentor Student Attraction Findings – Surveys Top reasons students indicated an interest in FSVM  Rural lifestyle  Desire to contribute to public health or food safety  Career would provide a variety of interesting tasks  Opportunity to work with nice, interesting people AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Geographic Location”? Extremely Important or Very Important     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 65% 63% 84%* 66% (n=452) (n=74) (n=36) (n=88) *Significantly different than companion animal, equine and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Geographic Location”? Geographic Location is Extremely Important or Very Important 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 84 65 63 66 Companion Animal Equine Food Animal* Mixed Animal *Food animal significantly different than companion animal, equine and mixed animal Importance – Performance Analysis of Decision Factors Related to Lifetime Career Commitment (How well does a factor contribute to a commitment as well as how important that factor is to the respondent) Survey of 2nd and 4th year students Importance – Performance Analysis Importance-Performance analysis is a framework used in consumer research to examine attribute importance and performance. The key idea is that knowing both the importance of the factor and its current level of performance are needed for informed resource allocation decisions. The researchers applied this technique to attributes of a veterinary career in the context of a student making a lifetime commitment to a particular career focus. Respondent Instructions ♦ “Please rate the importance of the following career goals that are critically important to you in your decision to make a lifetime commitment to your chosen occupational area.”  Rated on a four point scale of “Very Unimportant to “Very Important” ♦ “Next, please rate how likely your chosen occupational area will allow you to attain each career goal listed.”  Rated on a four point scale of “Very Unlikely” to “Very Likely”  28 different career goals were assessed using this procedure. Importance – Performance Grid High Performance Possible Overkill Low Importance Keep Up The Good Work High Importance Low Priority Concentrate Here Low Performance Importance – Performance Grid for Food Animal Students Encouraging a Lifetime Commitment High Performance Low Importance High Importance Areas to concentrate Low Performance Areas to Concentrate on in Encouraging A Lifetime Commitment Among Food Animal Students ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ Having a lot of free time to spend with my family. Family leave time for childbirth or illness. Excellent health care benefits. Excellent retirement benefits. Very flexible work hours. Becoming a leading authority in my occupational area. Extensive contact with other veterinarians at work. Importance – Performance Grid for Non-Food Animal Students Encouraging a Lifetime Commitment High Performance Low Importance High Importance Areas to concentrate Low Performance Areas to Concentrate on in Encouraging A Lifetime Commitment Among Non-Food Animal Students ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ Having a lot of free time to spend with my family. Family leave time for childbirth or illness. Excellent health care benefits. Excellent retirement benefits. Flexible career path that lets me move in many different career directions. Importance – Performance Analysis Summary ♦ Many items in the “keep up the good work” quadrant, and not many career factors in the “concentrate here” quadrant. ♦ Those areas to concentrate on for students revolve around  Personal issues (e.g., flexible work hours, time with family)  Benefits (e.g., retirement and health care)  Professional issues (e.g., becoming an authority in occupational area, flexible career path) ♦ There is much similarity among the factors that food animal students and non-food animal students rated as important, but low performing. ♦ Differences ♦ Food Animal – Leading authority, contact with other veterinarians ♦ Non-Food Animal – Flexible career path AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Personal issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Time off for vacation”? Extremely Important or Very important     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 70%* 61% 56% 60% (n=482) (n=70) (n=24) (n=79) *Significantly different than equine, food animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Personal Issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Time Off for Vacation”? Time Off For Vacation is Extremely Important or Very Important 80 60 % 40 20 0 70 61 58 60 Companion Equine Animal* Food Animal Mixed Animal *Significantly different than equine, food animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Personal issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Total number of hours I am required to work”? Extremely Important or Very important     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 70%* 53% 57% 44% (n=485) (n=63) (n=24) (n=58) *Significantly different than equine and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Personal Issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Total Number of Hours I am Required to Work”? Total number of hours I am required to work is Extremely Important or Very Important 80 60 % 70 53 57 40 20 0 44 Companion Animal* Equine Food Animal Mixed Animal *Significantly different than equine and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Personal issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Flexible hours”? Extremely Important or Very important     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 52% 55% 54% 47% (n=355) (n=63) (n=23) (n=62) AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Personal Issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Flexible Hours”? Flexible Hours are Extremely Important or Very Important 50 40 % 30 20 10 0 52 55 54 47 Companion Animal Equine Food Animal Mixed Animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Benefits Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Salary”? Extremely Important or Very important     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 75%* 73% 80%* 65% (n=521) (n=88) (n=36) (n=87) *Significantly different than mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Benefits Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Salary”? Salary is Extremely Important or Very Important 80 60 % 75 73 80 65 40 20 0 Companion Animal* Equine Food Animal* Mixed Animal *Significantly different than mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Benefits Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Benefits”? Extremely Important or Very important     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 65% 63% 74% 59% (n=452) (n=76) (n=31) (n=78) AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Benefits Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Benefits”? Benefits are Extremely Important or Very Important 80 60 % 65 63 74 59 40 20 0 Companion Animal Equine Food Animal Mixed Animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Professional issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Ability to use surgical knowledge and skills”? Extremely Important or Very important     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 66%* 60% 51% 64%* (n=456) (n=60) (n=21) (n=86) *Significantly different than equine AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Professional Issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Ability to Use Surgical Knowledge and Skills”? Use of Surgical Skills is Extremely Important or Very Important 80 60 % 40 20 0 66 60 51 64 Companion Animal* Equine Food Animal Mixed Animal* *Significantly different than equine AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Professional issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Relationship with Colleagues”? Extremely Important or Very important     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 73%* 61% 50% 62% (n=510) (n=73) (n=21) (n=83) *Significantly different than equine, food animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Professional Issues Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work environment how important is the factor “Relationship with Colleagues”? Relationship with Colleagues is Extremely Important or Very Important 80 60 % 40 20 0 73 61 50 62 Companion Equine Animal* Food Animal Mixed Animal *Significantly different than equine, food animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please rank the most important factor to you when you choose a work environment. Food Animal Veterinarians     Salary Geographic location Contact with animals Time off for parental/ family responsibilities  Ability to use surgical knowledge and skills  Relationship with colleagues 39%* 24% 12% 12% 7% 5% *Significantly different than companion animal and mixed animal Retention Surveys To understand:  How frequently veterinary students, recent graduates, and longer-term veterinarians switched occupational focus  What factors motivated them to switch Retention Findings from Student Surveys (759 Respondents)  Most veterinary students enter veterinary school knowing what specialty they want  Most students do not change  Overall, 21 percent changed Retention Findings from Student Surveys (2nd & 4th Year) Types of switches in order of switching: 1. From academic career (25%) (7/28) 2. From mixed animal (23%) (35/150) 3. From equine (22%) (16/74) 4. From food animal (18%) (12/65) 5. From companion animal (16%) (51/316) From–To Student Switching Analysis Original Area switched) Food Animal (18%) (n=11) Most common (% & number who new area (Of those that switched, % who selected) Second most common area (Of those that switched, % who selected) Mixed (45%) Equine (18%) Mixed animal (23%) (n=35) Companion animal (16%) (n=42) Companion (69%) Mixed (52%) Government (11%) University (21%) Equine (22%) (n=16) Companion (50%) Mixed (25%) Retention Findings from Recent Food Supply Graduates Surveys (133 Respondents)  93% were proud to be in FSVM area and liked being a food supply veterinarian  75% had many desirable career options  80% had attractive job alternatives outside of FSVM  However, 71% did not consider leaving FSVM  90% had not applied for a position outside FSVM in the past year  83% indicated that they were satisfied with their current occupation Retention Findings from Recent Graduates Surveys  Regression Analysis Predicting Career Switching  Those who are most likely to switch from a food animal veterinary medicine career:  Desire a more balanced lifestyle between work and family  Want more cultural and recreational activities near work  Are less satisfied with their current occupation in food animal medicine  Are less likely to be enthusiastic about their veterinary work and have less pride in their job  Have many attractive career alternatives within veterinary medicine Retention Findings from Recent Graduates Surveys When comparing FSVM to other areas of the veterinary profession, veterinarians involved in FSVM reported a higher degree of satisfaction. Retention Findings from Longer-Term Veterinarian Surveys – Both Food and NonFood Supply (2,482 Respondents)  17% (423) had changed their occupational area during the past 5 years  10% (44) of these were food animal veterinarians  Of the food animal veterinarians who changed:  27% (12) changed to companion animal  25% (11) changed to government  The main reason that the long-term veterinarians left their former jobs was because they received a more attractive offer Career Switching Analysis Longer-Term Veterinarians Original Area (Number who switched) Most Common New Areas (% who selected) Food Animal (n=44) Companion animal (27%) Government (25%) Companion Animal Industry (29%) (n=72) Government (29%) Mixed Animal (n=83) Companion Animal (47%) Government (22%) Retention Findings from Long-Term Veterinarian Surveys The high praise for the life of a food animal veterinarian as reported by those who actually perform this occupation explained much about the low amount of employee turnover in the food animal veterinary profession Retention Findings from Long-Term Veterinarian Surveys  Companion animal veterinarians report having fewer attractive career opportunities and fewer desirable options to pursue when compared to food animal veterinarians.  Companion animal veterinarians are more likely than food animal veterinarians to think their current income level is too low and worry more about job benefits.  There are no differences between food and companion animal veterinarians thinking about future salary potential or having too small of a client base to make a good income. Retention Findings from Long-Term Veterinarian Surveys  In terms of job stress, companion animal veterinarians were more likely to feel burned-out, exhausted, and too fatigued after work when compared to food animal veterinarians.  There were few major differences between groups on exposure to recreational and cultural activities, affordable housing, and career opportunities for spouses.  Food animal and companion animal veterinarians experienced no differences between balancing work and family, or getting time off for vacations. Retention Findings from Long-Term Veterinarian Surveys  Regression Analysis Predicting Career Switching  Those who are most likely to switch from a food animal veterinary medicine career:  Desire a more balanced lifestyle between work and family  Are less satisfied with their current occupation in food animal medicine  Are less likely to be enthusiastic about their veterinary work and have less pride in their job  Have many attractive career alternatives within veterinary medicine  Experience more stress and burnout in their current job  Desire more income and want to charge higher prices AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: In the future, would you consider changing your focus of employment in veterinary medicine? Yes     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 32% 31% 56%* 49%* (n=232) (n=39) (n=26) (n=71) * Significantly different from companion animal and equine AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Which type(s) of employment might you consider switching to in the future? 26 Food Animal Veterinarians:  Industry/Commercial 62% (n=16)  Government 58% (n=15)  Academia 38% (n=10) AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Which type(s) of employment might you consider switching to in the future? 70 Mixed Animal Veterinarians:  Industry/Commercial 49% (n=34)  Government 47% (n=33)  Academia 43% (n=30)  Companion animal 30% (n=21) AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: How satisfied are you with your current veterinary personal income? Extremely Satisfied or Very Satisfied     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 40% 36% 41% 24%* (n=292) (n=45) (n=19) (n=35) * Significantly different from companion animal, equine, and food animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: How satisfied are you with your current veterinary personal income? Extremely Satisfied or Very Satisfied with Income 60 % 40 20 0 40 36 41 24 Companion Animal Equine Food Animal Mixed Animal* *Significantly different than companion animal, equine and food animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: If you were to break down a typical day, out of 24 hours, how many hours a day would you spend on the activity “Family (time with spouse/significant other, child care, elderly care)”? Mean     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 3.24 3.02 3.30 3.18 AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: If you were to break down a typical day, out of 24 hours, how many hours a day would you spend on the activity “Family (time with spouse/significant other, child care, elderly care)”? Mean Hours Spent on Family Activity 4 3 Hours 2 1 0 3.24 3.02 3.3 3.18 Companion Animal Equine Food Animal Mixed Animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: If you were to break down a typical day, out of 24 hours, how many hours a day would you spend on the activity “Work (time at work, commuting)” Mean     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 9.83 10.73* 10.04 10.10 * Significantly different than companion animal, food animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: If you were to break down a typical day, out of 24 hours, how many hours a day would you spend on the activity “Work (time at work, commuting)”? Mean Hours Spent at Work 15 Hours 10 5 0 9.83 10.73 10.04 10.1 Companion Equine* Animal Food Animal Mixed Animal *Significantly different than companion animal, food animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with the statement “I am satisfied with my work/life balance”. Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 63%* 52% 64%** 46% (n=446) (n=65) (n=29) (n=63) *Significantly different from equine and mixed animal **Significantly different from mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with the statement “I am satisfied with my work/life balance”. Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat That I Am Satisfied with Work/Life Balance 80 60 % 40 20 0 63 52 64 46 Companion Animal* Equine Food Animal** Mixed Animal* * S ignif icantly dif f erent than equine and mixed animal. * * S ignif icantly dif f erent than mixed animal. AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with the statement “I have enough money to live comfortably at this time”. Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 75%* 74% 60% 66% (n=536) (n=92) (n=27) (n=91) *Significantly different from food animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with the statement “I have enough money to live comfortably at this time”. Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat That I Have Enough Money to Live Comfortably 80 60 % 40 20 0 75 74 60 66 Companion Animal* Equine Food Animal Mixed Animal * S ignif icantly dif f erent than f ood animal and mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with the statement “I feel my compensation for my position is adequate”. Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 58%* 56% 58% 46% (n=411) (n=70) (n=26) (n=64) *Significantly different from mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with the statement “I feel my compensation for my position is adequate”. Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat That Compensation is Adequate 60 % 58 56 58 40 20 0 Companion Animal* Equine Food Animal 46 Mixed Animal *Significantly different than mixed animal AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with the statement “I am concerned about having enough money for retirement”. Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat     Companion animal Equine Food animal Mixed animal 88% 86% 77% 83% (n=620) (n=106) (n=33) (n=114) AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005 Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or disagreement with the statement “I am concerned about having enough money for retirement”. Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat That I Am Concerned About Money for Retirement 100 % 88 86 77 83 50 0 Companion Animal Equine Food Animal Mixed Animal Labor Market Demand Research Goals ♦ Identification of the key economic, demographic, technological, and societal factors influencing the future demand for FSVM professionals. ♦ Forecast percentage change of FSVM professionals needed for short, medium, and long range time horizons. ♦ Identify variables affecting the supply for different FSVM careers. Demand Study 13 Delphi forecasting panels - each focused on different FSVM sector:  Academic  Industrial (pharmaceutical)  Government:  State and Provincial  Federal  Public Health  Animal Health  Food Safety & Security  Canadian Federal  Private Practice areas:  Dairy, Swine, Poultry, Beef, Mixed-Food Animal in rural areas, & Small Ruminants A Changing Larger Context ♦ Food supply veterinarians live in a changing professional context: The emerging context requires a “judgmental” or expert-driven forecasting method ♦ The Delphi Forecasting process: Panels of experts focus on different FSVM sectors (e.g., beef, academe, government, etc.) Panels have 15-25 nominated experts Delphi Method Assumptions ♦ The future emerges from both:  Fixed, continuing trends we must adapt to - BUT also  Changeable trends that can be managed & changed ♦ Effective solutions requires knowing the “why” as well as the numbers:  Why provides “leverage points” to be managed ♦ Expert-driven - but there are no perfect “experts”  The Delphi “process” is a learning process Delphi Process (continued) ♦ Panel members learn & get smarter by:  Hearing the “what & why” of others’ views  Re-thinking & changing views without “groupthink” ♦ Three-round forecasting process:  1st survey: Demand & supply trends, demand & shortage/surplus forecasts  2nd survey & feedback report: Averages & mid-50%; why some forecasted higher vs. lower numbers ♦ Re-consider & revise ratings as merited  Final survey & feedback report on 2nd survey Key Questions  What issues & trends are driving the future demand in the FSVM profession?  What is the future demand for food supply DVMs?  What trends & issues are driving the future supply of DVMs in food supply careers?  Will there be a future shortage or surplus? The Top Five Issues Increasing Future Demand 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Public concerns over food safety Zoonotic disease-related human health concerns Growing need to track animals entering the food chain Public concerns over bio-terrorism threats Increasing concerns for animal welfare Top Five Issues/Trends Decreasing Future Demand 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Curtailment of government support of veterinary services Lack of veterinarian’s practice management & business skill Federal and state or provincial budgetary constraints Client concerns about veterinary service costs Slow adoption of new technologies by veterinarians The “Move to larger sized producer operations” trend produced high disagreement within panels. Is demand increasing or decreasing in each sector? Non-Gov’t Areas Future Demand: Fall 2004 to Fall 2016 Means and SD (%):  Poultry:  Small Ruminants:  Beef:  Dairy:  Swine:  Mixed:  Academia:  Industrial: +4.1% +7.5% +7.7% +8.3% +10.0% +10.7% +12.6% +12.8% (SD=4.3) (SD=5.0) (SD=12.0) (SD=13.8) (SD=12.9) (SD=17.2) (SD=10.4) (SD=8.5) Government Area Future Demand: Fall 2004 to Fall 2016     Federal, Canadian: Federal-Animal Health: Federal-Public Health: Federal-Food Safety & Security:  State or Provincial Government: +15.4% +16.3% +16.8% (SD=6.0) (SD=8.6) (SD=14.5) +17.5% +20.8% (SD=12.8) (SD=15.6)  All panels combined: +12.5% (SD=13.0) Top Five Issues Limiting DVM Supply  Less emphasis on food animal practice in veterinary colleges  Little exposure to food supply career options in college  Poor income opportunities in food supply careers  Lack of spousal career options in rural areas  Lack of positive role models Given supply & demand: Will there be shortages? Non-Gov’t Areas Future Shortages: Fall 2004 to Fall 2016 Means and SD (%):  Poultry:  Small Ruminants:  Industrial:  Dairy:  Swine:  Beef:  Academia:  Mixed-Food Animal: -0.06% -2.2% -3.3% -3.8% -4.4% -5.4% -5.5% -6.6% (SD=1.0) (SD=1.4) (SD=3.8) (SD=3.2) (SD=2.7) (SD=5.5) (SD=4.0) (SD=5.0) Government Area Future Shortages: Fall 2004 to Fall 2016  State or Provincial Government: -4.9%  Federal-Public Health: -5.2%  Federal, Canadian: -5.5%  Federal-Food Safety & Security: -6.6%  Federal-Animal Health: -6.9%  All panels combined: -4.6% (SD=4.8) (SD=3.8) (SD=3.6) (SD=6.0) (SD=5.2) (SD=4.4) Planning Matrix - Demand (Available for each sector http://www.avma.org/public_health/fsvmc/fsvmc_toc.asp) Opportunities (Actionable) Eliminate & Counter Sustain, Complement & Enhance Demand Constraining Factors Manage Around Appreciate Demand Enhancing Factors Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Demand Beef Sector Business Skills & Use of Technology Business & Economic Trends Opportunities (Actionable) Large Producer Practice Opportunities Regulatory & Cattle Industry Trends Demand Constraining Factors Government Budgetary Constraints Demand Enhancing Factors Larger Societal Concerns Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Demand Dairy Sector Business Skills & Use of Technology Dairy Industry & Economic Trends Opportunities (Actionable) Serving Large Producer Needs Filling Regulatory Mandates Demand Constraining Factors Demand Enhancing Factors Government Budgets & Business & Economic Trends Societal Concerns Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Demand Mixed Food Animal Sector Opportunities (Actionable) Certifications & Monitoring Roles Specialized Technical Expertise Broad Expertise Business Skill & Use of Technology Business & Economic Trends Demand Constraining Factors Demand Serving Part-Time Farmers Drug Regulations Enhancing Factors Food Export Opportunities Government Budgetary Constraints Larger Societal Concerns Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Demand Swine Sector Opportunities (Actionable) New DVMs Training for Large Producer Operations Business Skill & Use of Technology Certifications & Auditing Needs Specialized Technical Expertise Regulatory Requirements Demand Constraining Factors Swine Industry Consolidation & Cost Pressure Government Budgetary Constraints Demand Enhancing Factors Food Export Requirements Larger Societal Concerns Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Demand Poultry Sector Business Skills & Use of Technology Opportunities (Actionable) Auditing & Certification Opportunities Demand Constraining Factors Larger Business & Economic Trends Fewer Drug Oversight Restrictions Government Budgetary Constraints Demand Enhancing Regulatory RequirementsFactors Export Market Access & Regulations Larger Societal Concerns Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Demand Small Ruminants Sector Business Skills & Use of Technology Opportunities (Actionable) Niche Marketing Opportunities Specialized Technical Expertise Auditing & Certification Needs Demand Constraining Factors Cost Pressure & Market Volatility Government Budgetary Constraints Urbanization & Loss of Farm Land Demand Enhancing Regulatory RequirementsFactors Larger Societal Concerns Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Demand State/Provincial Government Sector Opportunities (Actionable) Weak Business Skill Cost Pressure & Labor Substitution Trends Certifications & Monitoring Roles Food Regulations & Integration Team Solutions Demand Constraining Factors Government Jurisdictional Changes Government Budgetary Constraints Demand Enhancing Factors Agro-Security & Bio-Terrorism Threats Larger Societal Concerns Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Demand Federal Government Sector Opportunities (Actionable) Weak Business Skill & Use of Technology Cost Pressure & Labor Substitution Trends Specialized Technical Services & Certifications Regulatory & Global Food System Demand Constraining Factors Government Budgetary Constraints Demand Enhancing Factors Animal-Human Health Concerns Food Safety Concerns Bio-Security/Agro-Terrorism Concerns Animal Welfare Concerns Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply (Available for each sector http://www.avma.org/public_health/fsvmc/fsvmc_toc.asp) Opportunities (Actionable) Eliminate & Counter Sustain, Complement & Enhance Supply Constraining Factors Manage Around Appreciate Supply Enhancing Factors Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply Beef Sector Opportunities (Actionable) Centers of Excellence Mentoring & Recruitment Initiatives Non-FSVM Focus in CVM Negative Views of FSVM Careers Negative Role Models Student Debt Work Requirements Supply Constraining Factors Gender Dynamics Supply Enhancing Factors Rural Economic/Social Constraints Government Budgetary Constraints Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply Dairy Sector Opportunities (Actionable) Non-FSVM Focus in CVM Poor Role Models Emergency Call Work Student Debt Targeted Recruitment Initiatives Supply Constraining Factors Gender Dynamics Improving Salaries Supply Enhancing Factors Rural Economic/Social Constraints Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply Mixed Food Animal Sector Opportunities (Actionable) Non-FSVM Focus & Student Selection in CVM Ineffective Role Models Government Public Service Initiatives Marketing Initiatives Student Selection Initiatives Serving Small Animal Clients Income Opportunities Supply Debt Assistance Supply Constraining Factors Work Requirements Student Debt Gender Dynamics Enhancing Factors Expected Retirements Rural Economic/Social Constraints Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply Swine Sector Veterinary College Student Selection & Non-FSVM Focus Ineffective Role Models Practice Modes Supply Student Debt Constraining Factors Post-DVM Education Requirements Gender Dynamics Physical Demands Rural Economic/Social Constraints Governmental Budgetary Constraints Opportunities (Actionable) Government Public Service Initiatives Marketing Initiatives Student Selection Initiatives Serving Small Animal Clients Income Opportunities Supply Debt Assistance Enhancing Factors Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply Poultry Sector CVM Student Selection & Non-FSVM Focus Negative Role Models Practice Modes Supply Student Debt Constraining Factors Gender Dynamics Rural Economic/Social Constraints Governmental Budgetary Constraints Opportunities (Actionable) FSVM Externship & Mentoring Initiatives Good Income Opportunities Supply Enhancing Factors Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply Small Ruminants Sector Veterinary College Student Selection & Non-FSVM Focus Ineffective Role Models Opportunities (Actionable) FSVM Externship & Mentoring Initiatives Good Income Opportunities Supply Constraining Factors Practice Modes Student Debt Supply Enhancing Factors Post-DVM Education Requirements Physical Demands Near-Term Retirements Rural Economic/Social Constraints Gender Dynamics Lighter Physical Demands Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply State/Provincial Government Sector Opportunities CVM Student Selection & Non-FSVM Focus Ineffective Role Models Student Debt & Perceive Low Incomes (Actionable) Targeted Recruitment Initiatives Work/Life Balance Supply Constraining Factors Limited CVM Capacity Gender Dynamics Supply Enhancing Factors Rural Economic/Social Constraints Government Budgetary Constraints Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Planning Matrix - Supply Federal Government Sector Opportunities (Actionable) CVM Non-FSVM Focus Ineffective Role Models Student Debt Structure of Career Opportunity Supply Constraining Factors Debt Forgiveness Initiatives Limited CVM Capacity Supply Enhancing Factors Expected Near-Term Retirement Income Opportunities Government Budgetary Constraints Rural Economic/Social Constraints Fixed Constraints (Not Actionable) Delphi Panels Rating of Possible Solutions (7-point scale) 1. Student debt repayment and scholarship programs (Mean 5.3, SD=1.6) 2. Involving food supply practitioners in training veterinary students (4.8, SD=1.4) 3. Mentoring for students and new FSVM veterinarians (4.6, SD=1.5) 4. Appoint more FSVM faculty (4.6, SD=1.6) Delphi Panels Rating of Possible Solutions (7-point scale) 5. Expanded postgraduate fellowships in FSVM (Mean 4.6, SD=1.7) 6. Paid externship requirement in FSVM during the summer (4.4, SD=1.6) 7. Expand the concept of Centers of Excellence (4.4, SD=1.6) 8. Marketing campaigns to increase awareness of FSVM career and lifestyle (4.4, SD=1.6) Delphi Panels Rating of Possible Solutions (7-point scale) 9. Expanded paid work-study programs during the final year of veterinary school (Mean 4.4, SD=1.6) 10. Expanded job placement services in FSVM areas (4.4, SD=1.6) 11. Focused recruitment of high school and college students with FSVM interests (4.3, SD=1.6) 12. Reserve veterinary school slots for academically qualified students with FSVM interests (4.3, SD=1.7) Delphi Panels Rating of Possible Solutions (7-point scale) 13. Increased focus of FSVM coverage early during the veterinary curriculum (Mean 4.2, SD=1.6) 14. Development of a government-supported reserve corps of food supply veterinarians (3.8, SD=1.8) 15. Expanded business and practice management in veterinary curriculum (3.7, SD=1.8) Delphi Panels Rating of Possible Solutions (7-point scale) 16. Focused recruitment of women students into FSVM (Mean 3.4, SD=1.5) 17. Providing guidance on best business practices guidance for FSVM enterprises (3.4, SD=1.6) 18. Subsidized consulting in business and practice management for FSVM (3.2, SD=1.6) Authors Summary Statements  The food supply veterinarian is not an endangered species! There will be an increasing demand for food supply veterinarians.  For several Delphi panels, such as those focused on the mixed food animal, beef cattle, and dairy sectors, there is sharp disagreement among experts on what future demand will look like.  Analysis of the competing rationales underscored that the actual demand changes are very much a function of the strategic actions pursued by the FSVM profession in the near term. Authors Summary Statements  The forecasts are conservative in nature because the panels assumed a continuation of emerging trends with no intervening catastrophic events.  Colleges of veterinary medicine need to be a central focus, but not the only focus, in any resulting strategic action.     Selection of students likely to be attracted to FSVM Education and positive signals given to students Adequate numbers of academic food supply veterinarians Coordination and consolidation of effort across schools/better economies of scale Authors Summary Statements  Need external resources including both industry and government sponsorship  Need mentoring initiatives for students and new graduates starting their careers  Many of the trends and issues shaping the future of the food supply veterinary profession are created by choices within the profession. These can be thoughtfully reviewed and revised. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R1. Colleges of veterinary medicine should target students from rural areas that have had a significant food production experience. R2. Colleges of veterinary medicine should target students that major in the biological sciences and agricultural areas during their undergraduate career. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R3. Students that concentrate in food animal medicine should participate in a paid summer externship in practice, industry, or the government sector. R4. Professional veterinary medical associations should enact formal mentoring programs among their membership aimed at high school students. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R5. Students that display an interest in food animal medicine need to be told about the positive aspects of the career and lifestyle of food animal medicine in a variety of promotional materials. R6. The career satisfaction results of the study should be broadly publicized to ensure that faculty, students, and other constituents that may influence a student’s career choice are informed of actual job perceptions. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R7. Students that specialize in food animal medicine should receive financial assistance in the form of tuition relief for each year that they work in this occupational area in an underserved area of their state as well as low interest loans or grants to cover the costs of start-up equipment. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R8. Veterinary students should receive greater exposure to the benefits of careers in food animal veterinary medicine. This exposure should include paid summer externship opportunities, increased numbers of food animal faculty, treatment of food animals in the first semester of veterinary college, increased numbers of food animal courses, orientation sessions focused on food animal careers, and further study into creating regional centers of excellence. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R9. Veterinary students in food animal medicine should receive career selection assistance through assigned, enthusiastic faculty role models and dedicated job placement services. R10. Professional veterinary associations should actively promote the benefits of a food animal veterinary career to all constituencies with an emphasis on how careers in this area provide meaningful work of importance to the nation and society, allow one to fully utilize their medical training, and provide opportunities to lead a life that adequately balances the demands of work and family. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R11. Colleges of veterinary medicine should consider early admissions programs for students interested in food animal medicine, reserved admission slots for those planning to enter food animal medicine careers, and explore the benefits of increased specialization provided by placing students into substantive curriculum tracks. R12. Professional veterinary medical associations should establish formal programs that get their members involved with high school students, either in group presentations or one-on-one mentoring, in order to provide early food animal career exposure to potential students prior to college. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R13. We recommend that positive food animal practitioners serve as guest lecturers and visiting adjunct faculty to inform students and faculty about careers in food animal medicine. R14. Continuing education certificates in business management and pharmacology should be awarded to those who complete a series of short courses on these topics at colleges of veterinary medicine. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R15. Enthusiastic food animal faculty should be recruited and rewarded to serve as role models and mentors for students interested in food animal careers. R16. Debt relief legislation, similar to the national legislation, for food animal veterinarians should be pursued at the state level, where it is not at present. Authors Recommendations to Increase the Supply of Food Animal Students R17. The number and dollar amounts of scholarships targeted toward food animal students should be increased. R18. Colleges of veterinary medicine should consider adding admissions criteria that are favorable toward students interested in food animal veterinary medicine careers. Authors Summary thoughts “Continuing shortages have the potential to lead to catastrophic economic and human health problems for the US and Canada. There are too many historical examples to reach any other conclusions”. Drs. Andrus, Prince & Gwinner AVMA Journal, July 1, 2006 Conclusions  Once a FSVM career is chosen it is and continues to be a very rewarding and fulfilling life long career.  The sectors of FSVM that are different than private practice are demanding greater numbers of veterinary professionals and colleges and schools of veterinary medicine must redesign their curricula to adapt to this change Conclusions  This study is the strongest indication to date that proactive change by all sectors of the veterinary profession can manage the evolving demands of emerging FSVM careers.  More role models, especially in our colleges and schools of veterinary medicine, are necessary to drive proper enthusiasm for these exciting and rewarding FSVM careers. Next Steps Discussion Debate Consensus Action Numbers of Veterinarians AVMA Membership Directory 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2 7 2 7 2 3 4 5 0 0 2 8 8 9 9 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Mixed-Mixed Large Large Animal Bovine E xclusive 2 0 0 6 Numbers of Veterinary Graduates Entering Private Practice 150 100 50 0 4 7 0 3 6 0 3 0 0 2 2 8 8 9 9 9 0 1 1 1 1 1 Large Animal E xclusive Large Animal P redominant Large Animal E xclusive plus P redominant 2 Mixed 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 6 Numbers of Food Animals 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1965 Cattle on Feed Millions 1996 1997 2005 2006 Milk Cows Hogs and P igs Professional Income $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 LAE LAP MIX SAP SAE Equine $0 1993 1995 1997 1999 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Private Practice Mean Trends All +78.6% 95-05 2001 2003 2005 2007 Economic Report-Preliminary Starting Salary Private Practice Mean $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 1996 2004 2005 2006 $20,000 $10,000 $0 TOTAL LAE LAP MIX SAP SAE EQU 1996-2006 Graduates Survey