Egypt Tourism Report Q1 2010 by grb15373

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Egypt Tourism Report Q1 2010

Description:    The Egypt Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts,
                tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts
                and competitive intelligence on Egypt's tourism industry.

                Tourism Overview
                The downturn in the tourism sector is beginning to ease. After growth in foreign tourist arrivals
                slowed in 2008 (but remained strong), the most recent data for the first three quarters of 2009
                show tourist arrivals declined 5.4% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier. Over
                the same nine-month period in 2009, tourism revenue fell 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). These data
                though are an improvement on that recorded earlier in the year, with the sector experiencing
                negative growth in arrivals of about -9% y-o-y in H109, while tourism revenue was down 9.5% y-o
                -y.

                Bird And Swine Flu Updates
                At the end of November 2009 Egypt had confirmed 27 human deaths caused by the H5N1 bird flu
                virus (unchanged since the publisher's last report), out of 88 known human infections in Egypt –
                the largest number outside Asia (37 people were infected in Egypt in the first 11 months of 2009).
                Concerning the most recent case, the individual had been in close contact with dead and/or sick
                poultry. Since the Q409 report, Egypt has recorded its first deaths and a sharp increase in swine flu
                cases (the H1N1 virus). At the end of November 2009, the authorities had reported 10 deaths from
                the virus and some 2,900 cases. The author believes recession in key source markets, especially
                the eurozone, Russia and the rest of Central and Eastern Europe and the UK, is likely to result in
                negative annual growth in arrivals of around 7% in 2009. Compared with the publisher's last
                report, they have adjusted up their forecast for foreign visitor arrivals (in line with improving data
                during the year). The publisher also maintains their view of a slight pick up in arrivals in 2010,
                followed by relatively strong growth from 2011, as economic recovery in key source markets gets
                under way. The tourism ministry stated recently that it expects the sector to fully recover by Q310.

                Travco Group
                In October 2009, as part of a plan to expand its international operations, Egypt-based Travco
                Group completed the acquisition of Frankfurt-based Steigenberger Hotels, making it one of the
                largest hotel operators in Europe and the Middle East, with over 142 hotels, resorts and cruises,
                and 25,000 guest rooms.
                Foiled EgyptAir Hijacking

                A Sudanese passenger attempted to hijack an EgyptAir flight from Istanbul to Cairo in October.
                Onboard security, however, managed to detain the passenger and the plane landed safely in Cairo.
                Air Arabia Egypt

                In September 2009 Sharjah-based (UAE) Air Arabia and Travco Group announced a joint venture to
                launch a low-cost Egypt-based carrier. Air Arabia Egypt will serve Europe, Africa and the Middle
                East.



Contents:       Executive Summary

                SWOT Analysis
                - Egypt Tourism SWOT
                - Egypt Political SWOT
                - Egypt Economic SWOT
                - Egypt Business Environment SWOT

                Industry Forecast Scenario
                - Arrivals
                - Table: Egyptian Arrivals Data, 2006-2014 (000)
-   Accommodation
-   Table: Accommodation, 2006-2014 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
-   Expenditure
-   Table: Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2014

Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism Arrival Of Tourists At National Borders, By Region, 2006-2014 ('000)
- Table: Arrival Of Tourists At National Borders, By Country, 2006-2014 ('000)

Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism Expenditure, 2006-2014 (‘000 people, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Resident Departures By Destination Country, 2006-2014 ('000)

Market Overview – Travel
- Airports
- Commercial Airlines
- Table: Key Players – Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)

Market Overview – Hospitality
- Accommodation Developments
- Tourist Infrastructure
- Regional Case Study: Accor
- Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2009

Business Environment
- Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- BMI’s Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Egypt’s Security Risk Ratings
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
- Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
- H5N1 Virus Overview
- Special Report: Tourism And Terrorism
- Currency Forecast
- Table: BMI’s Egypt Currency Forecasts
- Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)

Company Profiles
- EgyptAir
- Travco
- Egyptian General Organisation For Tourism And Hotels (EGOTH)

Methodology
- How The Publisher Generates Their Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings – Methodology
- Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting of Components
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources
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