Crop Forecast 2-5-10

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Mango Crop Forecast - Updated February 12, 2010
                                                  The Crop Forecast is updated regularly and can be found at mango.org, Retailer Section.

                                                   The National Mango Board is working with the organizations in the mango-producing coun-
                                                   tries to get projections of what will be shipped to the U.S. This document contains informa-
                                                   tion from the countries currently shipping or planning to ship in the near future to the United
                                                   States and does not represent the entire year. The crop forecast document will be updated
                                                   as we receive new information from each country. Other valuable tools include (these are
                                                   links):
                                                   Three-Year Trend by Country & Month
                                                   Current Movement Data by port, country and month from USDA Market News

                                                                            Mango Import Projection & Volume Sent—Peru
                                                                                                   See page 2 for data table and sources
                                                   Peru: The Peruvian season began the beginning of November and will run until the end of
                                                   March with approximately 8 million boxes. High volume from Peru is expected in January.
                                                   During the last four seasons Peru has sent approximately 60% of the volume to the East
                                                   Coast and 40% to the West Coast. Projections will be adjusted during the season.

                                                                                                           Peru: 2009-2010 Season
                                                                       2009-10 Projections                                                 Volume Sent 2009-10                                                    Volume Sent 2008-09

                                                           1,200,000
                                                           1,000,000
                                                             800,000
                                                   Boxes




                                                             600,000
                                                             400,000
                                                             200,000
                                                                   0
                                                                        11/7/09




                                                                                                                   12/5/09




                                                                                                                                                                                 1/16/10
                                                                                                                                                                                           1/23/10
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1/30/10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2/13/10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2/20/10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2/27/10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               3/13/10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3/20/10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    3/27/10
                                                                                                                                                              1/2/10
                                                                                                                                                                        1/9/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                               2/6/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3/6/10
                                                                                  11/14/09
                                                                                             11/21/09
                                                                                                        11/28/09


                                                                                                                             12/12/09
                                                                                                                                        12/19/09
                                                                                                                                                   12/26/09




                                                                                                                                                                       Ending Week




                                                                       Mango Import Projection & Volume Sent—Mexico
                                                   Mexico: The 2010 Mexican mango season will start later than usual due to weather condi-
                                                   tions. Shipments are expected to start with small volumes in late February, increasing in mid
                                                   March. Projections from EMEX should be available in early March.




                                                   Please note: Dates are week-ending, shipping weeks. For arrival at U.S. ports from
                                                   Peru add 2-3 weeks.
                                                                                                                                                       Page 2

Mango Crop Forecast - Updated February 12, 2010
                                                                   Mango Import Projection & Volume Sent—
                                                                                    Peru
                                                                                Week1/        Peru          Peru        Peru
                                                                                Country        Proj       Volume       Volume
                                                                                              20092         Sent        Sent
                                                                                                          2009-103     2008-93
                                                                                  9/26/09
                                                                                  10/3/09
                                                                                 10/10/09
                                                                                 10/17/09
                                                                                 10/24/09
                                                                                 10/31/09
                                                                                  11/7/09      5,544
                                                                                 11/14/09     15,222
                                                                                 11/21/09      20,616    11,728
                                                                                 11/28/09     130,127    60,984    11,088
                                                                                  12/5/09     160,186   188,786
                                                                                 12/12/09     375,526   376,253    59,628
                                                                                 12/19/09     493,492   512,267   314,916
                                                                                 12/26/09     557,723   567,180   133,056
                                                                                    1/2/10    737,789   505,887   288,340
                                                                                    1/9/10    873,030   476,440   362,504
                                                                                  1/16/10     923,529   848,096   570,628
                                                                                  1/23/10     925,172   776,143   378,420
                                                                                  1/30/10     930,251 1,004,463 328,486
                                                                                    2/6/10    864,864   800,240   286,124
                                                                                  2/13/10     670,824             181,872
                                                                                  2/20/10     765,072             243,488
                                                                                  2/27/10     254,308             193,840
                                                                                    3/6/10    203,200             204,236
                                                                                  3/13/10     115,070              99,792
                                                                                  3/20/10      33,000              33,264
                                                                                  3/27/10      15,000              11,088
                                                                              Total          8,184,941 6,128,467 3,700,770




                                                   These are 8.8 lb boxes (4.0 Kg).
                                                  1
                                                    Dates are week-ending. These are shipping weeks. Add approximately 2 to 3 weeks for Brazil and Ecuador.
                                                  2
                                                    Source: National Mango Board
                                                  3
                                                    Source: Asociacion Peruana de Productores y Exportadores de Mango (APEM)
                                                                                                                                                               Page 3

Mango Crop Forecast - Updated February 12, 2010
                                                                           Shipping Point Price Information
                                                    The National Mango Board is now collecting data about the recent price history of mangos.
                                                    The information is provided by USDA-Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) – Market News
                                                    and is presented in terms of average high price and average low price per box for each major
                                                    variety and size break for the week.

                                                                                       Price per Box ($) – By Fruit Size

                                                                                              Peru Mangos, Kent
                                                                                           Port of Entry: Philadelphia
                                                       Ending                 Price                                               Count
                                                        Week
                                                                                                      7                8            9              10            12
                                                                     Average of Low Price            4.50            4.50          4.50           4.50          4.50
                                                     1/23/2010
                                                                     Average of High Price           4.88            4.88          4.88           4.88          5.00
                                                                     Average of Low Price            4.75            4.75          4.75           4.75          5.00
                                                     1/30/2010
                                                                     Average of High Price           5.25            5.25          5.25           5.25          5.50
                                                                     Average of Low Price            4.80            4.80          4.80           4.80          5.00
                                                     2/6/2010
                                                                     Average of High Price           5.25            5.25          5.25           5.40          5.50

                                                                                              Peru Mangos, Kent
                                                                                          Port of Entry: South Florida
                                                       Ending                 Price                                                Count
                                                        Week
                                                                                                     7           8            9            10            12       14
                                                                    Average of Low Price           4.00         4.00        4.00           4.50         4.50     3.00
                                                     1/23/2010
                                                                    Average of High Price          4.63         4.63        4.63           5.00         5.00     3.00
                                                                    Average of Low Price           4.50         4.50        4.50           4.60         4.60
                                                     1/30/2010
                                                                    Average of High Price          5.00         5.00        5.00           5.20         5.20
                                                                    Average of Low Price           4.70         4.70        4.70           4.90         4.90
                                                     2/6/2010
                                                                    Average of High Price          5.00         5.00        5.00           5.50         5.50

                                                                                              Peru Mangos, Kent
                                                                                      Port of Entry: Southern California
                                                       Ending                 Price                                               Count
                                                        Week
                                                                                                      7                8            9             10            12
                                                                     Average of Low Price           4.75             4.75          4.75           4.75         4.75
                                                     1/23/2010
                                                                     Average of High Price          5.00             5.00          5.00           5.00         5.00
                                                                     Average of Low Price           4.90             4.90          4.90           4.75         4.75
                                                     1/30/2010
                                                                     Average of High Price          5.50             5.50          5.50           5.50         5.50
                                                                     Average of Low Price           5.20             5.20          5.20           5.20         5.20
                                                     2/6/2010
                                                                     Average of High Price          5.65             5.65          5.65           5.80         5.80



                                                  Dates are week-ending.
                                                  Source: USDA – AMS/Fruit & Vegetable Market News
                                                  Prices shown represent averages of the high and low prices paid at the point of importation for that week. These are
                                                  F.O.B. prices at points of production or points of entry for imports. They may include promotional allowances or other
                                                  incentives. Brokerage fees paid by the shipper are included in the price reported.

						
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