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GENERAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT - INDIA AND THE WORLD

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GENERAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT - INDIA AND THE WORLD Powered By Docstoc
					                INDUSTRY ANALYTICS
“GENERAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT: INDIA AND THE WORLD”



                                       Presented By -
                              Anamika Sharma Roy (08PG150)
                                Gargi Bhadhuria (08PG164)
                               Mohommad Tharik (08PG173)
                                 Ravi Chaitanya (08PG185)
                                 Summiya Saify (08PG198)
                                  Varun Garg (08PG210)
                 Introduction
• “India the Next SUPER POWER?”- Rafiq Dossani
• He says India has potential to overtake the West
• But India ranked 126 on the basis of per capita
  income by IMF
• India’s economic position in the world?
       State of Indian Economy
• India’s growth rate at 8.5%
• Investment rate very high at 31%
• Promoted from low income country to lower
  middle income country
• Population below poverty line very high
• BRIC Report – potential for economic
  supremacy
• Newly Industrialized Country Status
• Growing relevance of a State level perspective
  in national planning
• Making states accountable for the backward
  areas
• Special regions identified and privileges
  allotted
• Targets for various monitorable indicators
         ECONOMIC INDICATORS
•   GDP (real Growth %)
•   Investment (Gross Fixed) (%)
•   Population below Poverty Line (%)
•   Unemployment Rate (%)
•   Industrial Production Growth (%)
•   Exports (billion $)
•   Imports (billion $)
•   GDP-per capita (PPP)
     Countries under consideration
•   USA
•   UK
•   Canada
•   France
•   Germany
•   Bangladesh
•   Tanzania
•   Philippines
•   Pakistan
•   Russia
                                GDP Real Growth Rate %
                        2000          2001       2002             2003     2004      2005    2006                        2007    2008 200
                        5.5         2000
                                      62000    2001
                                                 4.3
                                                2001            2002
                                                                  4.3
                                                                2002    2003
                                                                       2003        2004    2005
                                                                           8.3 20046.2 2005 8.42006                     2006
                                                                                                                           2007 2007
                                                                                                                         9.2     2008 8
                                                                                                                                 8.5
India
USA                                    5.5
                                     4.1        65              4.3
                                                                 0.3   4.3
                                                                         2.45   8.3 3.1 6.2 4.4 8.4                        9.2
                                                                                                                         3.2     8.5 2.2
                                                                                                                                 3.2
                        7             8          8                8        9.1       9.1     10.2                        10.7    11.4
China India
UK                                   1.9             3           1.6          1.6            2.2       3.2                1.9          2.8    2.9
              3.1                      5.2
                                      4.8         5.3
                                                  3.3           5.6
                                                                  4.5      4.4 5.5    5.3 6.1 4.9      6.66.4               6.6
                                                                                                                          6.6          6
                                                                                                                                       6.3
Pakistan
CANADA Bangladesh                    3.6          4.3            3.4          3.4            1.7       2.4                2.9          2.7    2.7
FRANCE        2.9                     3.6
                                     2.7
                                       4           2.8
                                                  3.1
                                                  5.2             4.6
                                                                5 1.1      5.2 4.5
                                                                                1         5.9
                                                                                      5.2 0.5 5.8      4.8
                                                                                                       2.1 6.8            5.4
                                                                                                                          1.2
                                                                                                                            5.8        7.3
                                                                                                                                       2.1
                                                                                                                                       6.9    1.8
Philippines
       Tanzania
GERMANY                              1.5             3           0.4          0.4            -0.1      1.7                0.9          2.7    2.6
              3.2                     6.3            4           4.2          7.3             6.7      6.4                6.7          8.1
Russia
INDIA                                5.5             6           4.3          4.3             8.3      6.2                8.4          9.2    8.5
        10
        12              10
             9

        10
         8
                         8
             7                                                                                                                      USA
                                                                                                                                  Indi a
         8
             6           6                                                                                   India                  UK
                                                                                                                                  Chi na
         6
         5
                                                                                                                                  PaCANADA
                                                                                                                                    ki s ta n
                                                                                                             Bangladesh
             4           4
                                                                                                                                  Phi l i ppi nes
                                                                                                                                    FRANCE
         4                                                                                                   Tanzania
             3                                                                                                                    Rus s i a
                         2                                                                                                           GERMANY
         2
         2
                                                                                                                                     INDIA
             1
         0               0
             0   2000        2001      2002       2003          2004      2005       2006     2007     2008
                               2000        2001      2002       2003      2004     2005      2006     2007     2008
                 2000        2001     2002    2003       2004      2005     2006      2007     2008
                        -2
          INVESTMENT % (on GDP)

              2004      2004    2005      2005    2006     2006    2007     2007    2008 2008
                     2004              2005              2006             2007          2008
  USA
India                23.115.2          23.815.7             16.7
                                                         28.1                16.6
                                                                          29.2            15.6
                                                                                         31.8
  UK
India                    16.2
                      23.1                 16.2
                                        23.8                16.6
                                                          28.1               17.2
                                                                           29.2           18.3
                                                                                         31.8
China                43.4                46              44.4             44.3           42.2
  CANADA                19.5              19.4             20.5            21.3             22
Pakistan             12.9              16.4              15.3             15.6           21.4
Bangladesh
  FRANCE             23.2
                        19.2           23.5
                                          19.2           24.4
                                                           19.6           24.9
                                                                             20            26
                                                                                          20.7
Philippines
  GERMANY            18.1
                        17.7             17
                                          17.6           15.5
                                                           17.1           14.6
                                                                           17.3          14.2
                                                                                          18.4
Tanzania
Russia
  INDIA              17.2
                     18.2
                        23.1           16.2
                                       19.1
                                          23.8           18.6
                                                           28.1
                                                         18.1               19
                                                                          18.2
                                                                           29.2          18.4
                                                                                          31.8
                                                                                         19.4
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH RATE (%)

                2000
               2000       2001
                       2000
                         2001          2002     2003      2004
                                 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004
                                                             2004      2005
                                                                          2005   2006
                                                                                 2006
                                                                                   2006   2007
                                                                                          2007
                                                                                            2007   2008
                                                                                                     2008
                                                                                                    2008
  India
  USA
 India         66      2.4 7.5
                         7.5          4.7     6
                                 5.6 4.7 -3.7 6     -0.4   6.5
                                                           6.5 0.3     7.4 4.4   7.93.2
                                                                                 7.9      7.5
                                                                                          7.5
                                                                                            4.2    100.5
                                                                                                    10
  UK
 China         8.8       10
                       -0.3      2   13.5 -3.4 12.6 -3.4   30.4-0.7    17.1
                                                                          0.9      -1.9
                                                                                 29.5      0
                                                                                          22.9      0.7
                                                                                                   12.9
  Bangladesh
  CANADA
 Pakistan       2.5
               3.8     4.3 6.1
                         3.8     4.5 76.2 2.2   1.8
                                                2.4 2.2    1.9
                                                           7.6 0.2     6.5 2
                                                                       13.1      6.72.6
                                                                                 10.7     7.2
                                                                                          6 0.7    9.5
                                                                                                     1.6
                                                                                                    6.8
  Tanzania
  FRANCE        8.4    2 48.4                  8.4 -0.3
                                 3.5 48.4 -0.3 4           8.4         8.4 1.7   8.40.2   8.4      8.2
 Philippines   1.7                                         -0.1 -0.3   5         2.2        0.2
                                                                                          4.8       71.6
  GERMANY
 Russia        8.1     0.9
                         8.8     4.7 3.7 -2.1 3.7 -2.1     7 0.2       6.4 2.2   4 2.9      4.4
                                                                                          4.8       62.1
  INDIA                6         7.5      4.7      6           6.5        7.4      7.9      7.5     10
                              UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

                      2002         2003 2004    2004           20052005               2006
                                                                                        2006        2007 2007     2008       2008
USA                       5      20025.8      2003 6           2004 5.5           2005 5.1      2006 4.8      2007 4.6      2008
        India                             9.5                    9.2                      8.9              7.8                 7.2
UK      China
         India          5.2          5.2 10.1 8.8 5
                                   8.8                           9.8 4.8
                                                                 9.5                9.2 4.7 9     8.9 2.9 4.2 7.8 5.4         7.24
CANADA Pakistan        7.6           7.6  7.7     7.8            8.3 7                    6.6
                                                                                        6.8           6.4 6.5       5.9        7.5
FRANCE                 9.1          9.1              9.7          10.1                 9.9              8.7            8
         Bangladesh
        Philippines                35     11.4     40            40
                                                               11.7                 40 8.7       2.5         7.9 2.5         2.5
                                                                                                                              7.3
GERMANY Russia         9.8          9.8             10.5          10.6                11.7              7.1 6.6      9.1
         Tanzania          U/A          U/A8.5          U/A     8.3 U/A                 7.6
                                                                                         U/A             U/A          U/A     5.9
INDIA                  8.8          8.8              9.5            9.2                8.9              7.8          7.2



                                  12
                                  12
                                  10
                                  10                                                             USA
                                   8
                                                                                                 UK
                                                                                                India
                                   8
                                   6                                                            CANADA
                                                                                                China
                                   6                                                            FRANCE
                                                                                                Pakistan
                                   4
                                                                                                GERMANY
                                                                                                Philippines
                                   4
                                   2                                                            INDIA
                                                                                                Russia
                                   2
                                   0
                                   0     2002           2006       2007           2008
                                                 2004                      2007
POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LINE (%)

                   2000
                   2000   2003
                           2001
                           2001     2004
                                   2002
                                   2002         2003 2005
                                                2003    2004
                                                        2004     2006
                                                                2005      2006 2007
                                                                                  2007     2008
                                                                                          2008
  USA
    India          35
                   35     12.7
                          35
                           35      25 12
                                   25           25
                                                25      12
                                                         25
                                                         25     25 12     25      12
                                                                                   25     25 12
  UKChina
    Banglades      10      17
                          10       10 17        10      17
                                                         10     10 17     10      17
                                                                                   10     8   14
    h
    Pakistan
  CANADA           34
                   35.6
                     -    35.6
                          40 -     36
                                   35            35.6
                                               - 35      35
                                                         35.6   45
                                                                3215.9    32
                                                                          45       45
                                                                                   24
                                                                                 15.9     45
                                                                                          2410.8
    Tanzania
    Philippine
  FRANCE           51.1    51.1
                           6.4     516.5        36        36
                                                        6.5     36 6.5    36      36
                                                                                 6.2      36 6.2
    s
  GERMANY          32     41
                           11      40 11        40       40
                                                        11      40 11     40      40
                                                                                  11      30 11
     Russia
  INDIA            40     40
                           25      40 25        25       25
                                                        25      25 25     17.8     17.8
                                                                                  25      15.825

      25


      20
                                                                                                   USA

      15                                                                                           UK
                                                                                                   CANADA
      10                                                                                           FRANCE
                                                                                                   GERMANY
       5                                                                                           INDIA

       0
                 2003       2004        2005            2006       2007           2008
    GDP-PER CAPITA in $ PPP per year


                   2000        2001       2002      2003      2004     2005     2006     2007     2008
                2000      2001         2002      2003      2004      2005     2006     2007     2008
                     1800         2200      2540      2540      2900     3100     3400     3800     2700
                       3800          3600          4600          4400          5000     5600     6800     7700    5300
India           1800          2200          2540          2540          2900        3100     3400     3800     2700
                       2000          2000          2100          2100          2100     2200     2400     2600    2600
Bangladesh      1470 3600 1570       3800 1750 4000 1700 4200 1900 4600 20005000 21004700 2300        3300
                                                                                              5000 1400
                     4200            7700      8800      9300      8900     9800    11000    12200   14600
Tanzania        550           710           610           630           600           700   700      800       1100


   4000

   3500

   3000

   2500
                                                                                                     Indi a
   2000
                                                                                                     Ba ngl a des h
   1500                                                                                              Ta nza ni a
   1000

        500

          0
              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
                    IMPORTS (in BILLION $)

               2000
                 2000
              2000        2001
                           2001
                         2001      2002
                                     2002
                                      2002      2003 2004 2004
                                             20032003   2004            2005
                                                                     20052005   2006
                                                                                   2006
                                                                                    2006    2007
                                                                                             2007
                                                                                           2007       2008
                                                                                                     2008
 USA
India          50.2
                 912
              50.2       60.8
                          60.8
                           1223      53.8
                                      53.8
                                   1148      1165
                                                53.8
                                                 53.8      74.15
                                                        1260 74.15      89.33 1727
                                                                     147689.33   113.1
                                                                                  113.1     187.9
                                                                                             187.9
                                                                                           1869      1987
                                                                                                      224.1
                                                                                                     224.1
 UK
China           305.9
              165.8        324
                         197         268.6
                                   330.1     330.1
                                                295.3 363.6
                                                          397.4         552.4
                                                                     439.4         631.8
                                                                                483.7       777.9
                                                                                           603       595.6
                                                                                                     917.4
Bangladesh
 CANADA
Pakistan       8.01
              9.8259.3    8.1
                         9.6
                           238.2      8.7
                                   22.9
                                     9.2         8.5
                                             22911.1    240.49.459
                                                            12.51        10.03
                                                                     256.1        12.97
                                                                        14.01 317.7
                                                                                 21.26       13.77
                                                                                           353.2
                                                                                            26.79     14.91
                                                                                                     394.4
                                                                                                     30.99
Tanzania
 FRANCE
Philippines    1.44
                 280.8
              30.7        1.57
                         35320        1.55
                                   303.7
                                     30          1.67
                                             303.7
                                                33.5    339.91.674
                                                            35.97        1.972 473.3
                                                                                   2.391
                                                                     419.7
                                                                        37.5      42.66      3.18
                                                                                           529.1
                                                                                            51.6      4.591
                                                                                                     601.4
                                                                                                     53.96
Russia        48.2       44.2        60.7       60.7          74.8      92.91      125      171.5    260.4
 GERMANY         587       505     487.3     487.3      585          716.7      801        916.4     1121
 INDIA          50.2      60.8     53.8      53.8       74.15        89.33      113.1      187.9     224.1
                        EXPORTS ( in BILLION $)

                2000
                2000      2001
                          2001    2002
                                    2002    2003
                                              2003    2004
                                                        2004    2005
                                                                 2005    2006
                                                                          2006    2007     2008
               2000      2001       2002     2003      2004      2005     2006    2007     2008
USA
 India          663
                36.3      776
                          43.1    723
                                    44.5    687
                                              44.5    714.5
                                                        57.24   795
                                                                 69.18   927.5
                                                                          76.23   1024
                                                                                   112     1140
                                                                                           140.8
India          36.3      43.1       44.5     44.5      57.24     69.18    76.23   112      140.8
UK
 China          271
                194.9     282
                          232     286.3
                                    312.8   286.3
                                              325.6   304.5
                                                        436.1   347.2
                                                                 583.1   372.7
                                                                          752.2   468.8
                                                                                   974     415.6
                                                                                           1221
CANADA
 Pakistan       277
                8.4       272.3
                          8.6     260.5
                                    8.8     260.5
                                              9.8     279.3
                                                        11.7    315,6
                                                                 15.07   364.8
                                                                          14.85   405
                                                                                   19.24   440.1
                                                                                           20.58
Bangladesh     5.1       5.9        6.6      6.2       6.713     7.478    9.372   11.17    11.25
FRANCE          304.7     325     307.8     307.8     346.5     419      443.4    490      558.9
Tanzania
 Philippines   0.828
                34.8     0.937
                          38        0.827
                                    37       0.863
                                              35.1     0.978
                                                        34.56    1.248
                                                                 38.63    1.581
                                                                          41.25   1.831
                                                                                   47.2    2.119
                                                                                           48.38
GERMANY
 Russia        610
               75.4      578
                         105.1    608
                                    104.6   608
                                              104.6   696.9
                                                        134.4   893.3
                                                                 162.5   1016
                                                                          245     1133
                                                                                   317.6   1361
                                                                                           365
INDIA          36.3      43.1     44.5      44.5      57.24     69.18    76.23    112      140.8
CONCLUSION

				
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