G. L. Goswami memorial Lecture Feb 2008 DOUBLE DIGIT by bfb53718

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									G. L. Goswami memorial Lecture: Feb 2008
DOUBLE DIGIT GDP GROWTH OF INDIAN ECONOMY -
CONTRIBUTION BY WELDING TECHNOLOGY
C. C. Girotra, Vice-President, IIW



                     Mr. C.C. Girotra graduated as Mechanical Engineer from Sardar
                     Patel College of Engineering, Anand, in the year 1966 and
                     subsequently joined the 11th batch of Training School, Bhabha
                     Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai. On completion of one year of
                     training period, he served in now Nuclear Power Corporation for
                     five years before leaving for United Kingdom to pursue Post-
                     graduation studies in Welding Technology from Cranfield
                     University. On his return from U.K., he joined Welding Division of
Philips India and served there for fifteen years. In 1990, he started his own welding
product marketing company. He is an active member of IIW for more than 30 years and
is presently Vice-president of IIW and a Past Chairman of IIW, Mumbai Branch.


Foreword:

I am here to deliver G .L. Goswami Memorial Lecture. This is a paradoxical situation for
me. He was a good friend of mine. I am saddened when I use the word “was” while
talking about GLG, as his friends knew him. He was not an ordinary, for that matter not
just an extraordinary either, welding technologist. He was more of a visionary. He often
used to quote the conclusion of an American Technology mission in those days -
“Welding is the third most important technology after space & bio technology.” And he
believed in it. The effects of welding technology on other industries are multifaceted.
Mr. Goswami recognized this aspect. Therefore, it gives me pleasure when I present my
impressions on how welding can possibly help in sustaining the high GDP growth rate of
India as the subject matter of this lecture.



1. INTRODUCTION

India is emerging as one of the economic superpowers and is expected to dominate the
world’s economy in this century. India has shown consistently improved economic
performance for the last five years or so. The GDP growth rate has been between 8 to
9% (Refer Table 1 and 2). The target of 10% appears feasible in the near future.
Sustaining this high growth rate requires all out efforts from all the sectors of economy.
What is interesting in this achievement is that the contribution of manufacturing sector
has increased as against traditional contributors like agriculture. And this is where
welding technology plays its role.



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Economic importance of a technology is normally determined by economic benchmarks
of the producing industry commonly known as user industries. However, the impact of a
cross-sectional technologies (CST) (the technologies such as information technology,
welding technology etc which are used by a number of user industries like finished
product manufacturing / processing industries etc.) on the economy is difficult to assess.
It is not easy to establish their contribution to the gross domestic product. Usually input-
output (I-O) accounts show statistical results for branches or groups of products but not
for technologies. Measuring the economic contribution of a CST by the output of the
technical goods (direct product of the technology) would take into account only the
contribution of the production of the technological goods such as welded products.
Therefore, the contribution to the gross value added by the user industries (say
manufacturing processes) using CST should also be taken into account while assessing
the impact of a CST on GDP.


Table 1 GDP growth rate for next five years *(Estimated)

      Year          2005        2006      2007        2008*        2009*
      Growth        9.2         9.4       9.0         8.4          8.5
       * Prospects for Global Economy – World Bank Data Pub. On 8th Jan. 2008


Table 2 Industrial GDP growth of India**

 Year         2001-02      2002-03      2003-04      2004-05      2005-06      2006-07*
 Value        103.6        109.3        123.6        138.7        154.3        167.5
 ($ bn)
                            ** Business Times of 20 Jan. 2008


2. RELEVANCE OF THIS SUBJECT

Contribution of welding to GDP is a subject matter, which is not very straightforward. It
influences GDP in many indirect ways. However, welding by itself needs to be updated
in various aspects and that makes the subject matter extremely relevant in today’s context
where India is aiming at double-digit growth in its economy. The following areas needs
to be looked into in depth, if India has to achieve desired growth where welding can
contribute.

•Lack of sufficient and qualified /skilled manpower
•Indian welding industry does not export substantial quantity of welding goods
•Not being competitive both on cost and quality
•True importance of welding is not appreciated by the Engineering
 Organizations
• Welding is treated as a commodity or expense instead of seeing it as a
 Critical enabling technology


3. WHAT IS GDP


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A Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most popular ways of measuring the
growth of economy of a country or region. It is defined as the total market value of all
final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. It is described
mathematically as under:

The most common approach to measuring and understanding GDP is the expenditure
method:

GDP = consumption + investment + (government spending) + (export – import)
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
  (Gross means depreciation of capital stock is not included)

In industry, GDP is understood as the measures of the value of the output of an industry
less the value of intermediate inputs required in the production process. The GDP is,
therefore, an output based measure of economic activity and is commonly referred to, as
value-added of the economy. The GDP growth measures progress or the rate of
expansion of economy’s capacity to produce output (goods and services).

Let us examine how a healthy growth of Indian Welding Technology can help increase
the amount of investment and productivity of the investment made.


   Table 3: GDP figures released (Year 2007) by World Bank based on 2005 data

        Country                   GDP (PPP)             % of World PPP
                                  $ Billion
        United States             12376.0               22.51
        China                     5333.2                9.7
        Japan                     3870.3                7.04
        Germany                   2514.8                4.57
        India                     2341.0                4.26
        UK                        1901.7                3.46
        France                    1862.0                3.39
        Russia                    1697.5                3.09
        Brazil                    1585.0                2.88
        World                     54980.0               100

BRIC bats for India- latest review report

India has not performed as expected as mentioned in earlier report in the year 2005 where
India was placed in the fourth position after US, China and Japan in terms of size of the
economy. India has now slipped to fifth position after Germany.



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India has been considered as the weakest link in the BRIC chain. It has the lowest
productivity scores even though it has vast economic potentials. – As per latest Goldman
Sachs investment advice for 2008

It may not be prudent to take our projected GDP growth rate for granted. Let us discuss
what is required to bounce back?


4. OVERVIEW OF STATISTICS - INDIAN WELDING INDUSTRY

Consumption of Steel is considered a reliable quantifying indicator of welding activity.
   Some of the data of importance to show the size of Indian welding industry is given
   below:
   • Typically weld metal deposit ~1.5% of weldable steel Consumption figures
       indicate size of the welding market and hence its importance.
   • Indian consumption of crude steel ~50 MMT (Target-100 MMT in 2020)
   • World consumption of crude steel ~1250 MMT
   • World welding market ~$13 bn
   • Indian welding market ~ $0.6 bn. i.e. Rs. 2500 crores
5. CONTRIBUTION OF WELDING TO GDP

Welding is one of the prime manufacturing processes used for fabrication of a large range
of goods made from wide variety of material. Contribution of welding to GDP is through
following:

   •   Welding Intensive Industries - where the out put is a welded product
   •   Complementary goods – necessary only for               welding such as welding
       consumable, welding machine etc
   •   Auxiliary products – goods also used by other industries besides welding such as
       gas, gloves etc
   •   Employment – direct and indirect
   •   User industries - which use welding technology as a support technology, say for
       maintenance.

6. WELDING INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES

The industries, which employ or produce goods more than 3% of their total employment
of output, are considered welding intensive industries. Some of the major industrial
sectors dominated by Welding processes amongst Indian industries are

       a.   Heavy Engineering Fabrication
       b.   General Metal Fabrication
       c.   Ship Building and Repair services
       d.   Automobile Production
       e.   Railways / Transportation
       f.   Aerospace Industry



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a. Heavy Engg Fabrication

This sector of welding industry is the prime mover who contributes to the development
and use of newer technologies. Growth of this sector contributes significantly to GDP
and provides impetus to growth of other associated industries. Fabrication in this
category of industry is essentially for power, petrochemical, refineries, process plant
industries

Some of the major areas, which require attention, are-
  Components getting bigger
  Severe pressure on cost
  Satisfying environment concerns
  Shorter delivery period

Challenges

This category of industry is facing the following challenges and constraints

    Improve skill of welding personnel / availability of skilled manpower
    Inspection and testing of large vessels to ensure highest quality – inadequate facility
   and manpower
    Improvement of productivity by use of Narrow gap / SAW and ESS Cladding,
   Tandem MAG, T-SAW, Hot Wire TIG
    Adaptation of new technologies for fabrication of new generation materials such as
   P22V, H.S. Q&T steel, X65/X 70/X 100 pipe steel, super duplex, P92, T23 etc
    Heat treatment of large welded components


b. General Construction& Engineering
This category of industry constitutes a large number of small and medium fabrication
units, which forms the general image of welding industry. Due to its shear number, this
category deserves larger attention.

Challenges

This category faces a number of challenges besides perennial fund shortage and lack of
appreciation of welding technology by the entrepreneur. Some of the welding related
challenges they face are

     Development of skill – imparting training, encouraging to obtain certification
     Improvement in quality of the product
     Use of high productivity processes – increased use of GMAW, FCAW processes
     Adherence to time schedule to reduce cost overrun

c. Ship Building and Repair Services

Shipbuilding is often considered as one of the major contributors of economy of a
country. Japan, Korea, and now China are bright examples. All round improvement in
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global economic situations has put high demand on shipping and consequently on
availability of ships. Nearly 90% of world trade is carried out by shipping industry.
During the last four years, the world demand has doubled (302 MDWT in 2006).
Welding is of utmost concern in shipbuilding since several kilometers of welding is done
to build a ship. India missed ‘Shipbuilding Revolution” due faulty planning in spite of
India having 7500 km of coastline.

Ship repair industry is equally important. It also involves large scale welding and cutting.
The skill needed for repair services is of different kind. The ship-repair market-size is
around Rs. 10-12 billion per annum.

Challenges
Some of the challenges faced by the ship building industry are-

     Use of high productivity processes and concern for quality can speed up production.
   Table 4 compares how India fares in productivity with respect to other countries.
     Use of multi electrode fillet welding equipment
     Overhead welding robot for bottom shell welding
     High speed FCuB/RF1 one side welding facility
     Cutting by plasma i/o gas cutting for speed and accuracy
     Rationalizing of specifications and sharing of knowledge between defense and
   civilian sectors

                    Table 4 Productivity comparison in shipbuilding*

     Country     Production            No. of Employees     Productivity
                 (MDWT)                                     (DWT/employee)
     Japan       23.2                  80,000               290
     Korea        23.0                 71,300               320
     China       8.8                   158,000              56
     India       0.6                   12,000               50
                 • Ministry of Surface Transport, Study Group report 2004

d. Automobile Production

Automobile industry in India has witnessed a sea change in the last five years. The world
has started recognizing the capability and invested heavily in this sector in India. History
is witness to the fact that automobile production has always been the engine of economic
development in the industrialized countries in the past. Here automobile production
constitutes 10% of Indian GDP. More than 15 lakh cars were manufactured last year
(2006-07).

Challenges
Economic consideration will throw challenges in the automobile sector. The significant
ones are-
       New coated materials being used to reduce weight are difficult to weld. Processes
       needed to be developed
        Tailored welded parts use steels of dissimilar properties. Laser welding process
       is often used. This process requires optimization
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       Online monitoring of process and quality are two main technological challenges.
       Weld Quality hitherto not known shall be demanded, more stringent standards
       shall appear
       Savings in materials shall favor processes like plasma and laser cutting,
       autogenous GTAW welding, and Electron Beam

e. Railways / Transportation

Indian Railways are by far the largest service providers in the world. Until 1947 there
were major no welding activities, but presently almost all processes are in use. The sheer
magnitude, flexibility, skilled work force, and cost productivity pose some major
challenges for welding in this sector.

f. Aerospace Industry

Challenges

       Shorter product development cycles and need of integrated manufacturing
       concepts
       Welding of new Al, Ti and Ni alloys Solid state joining and brazing processes
       Polymer/composite joining Design tools include residual stress and distortion
       control
       Process modeling and control In-process nondestructive testing
       Friction stir welding of air frames
       Laser cutting & welding

7. MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT

Shortage of skilled work force and inability of welding industry to attract talent are
emerging has the foremost challenge which needs to be addressed expeditiously by all
concerned. Table 5 gives a fairly good idea how other countries are placed.

                           Table 5: Data on welding personnel

  Country Population              Qualified No; of Welders / Engineers
            (Mn)
  Canada      30     30,000 Certified fabrication co. / 3 to 6,000 Certified welding
                     Engineers
   Japan     120     42,000 Certified welding coordinators & Engineers

    China        1200      2 million welders 40,000 Bachelor degree holder engineers with
                           major in welding. Now IIW certified with DVS help

   IIW certification schemes are on with guidance of developed countries namely in Malaysia
              (* U.K), Vietnam (*DVS), Indonesia (*Australia), and Thailand (*France)


Note:
India does not have official data of this kind yet.


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8. RECOMMENDATIONS

The recommendations which may be considered to genuinely improve the contribution of
welding to a double-digit GDP growth of India are summarized below.


  Sr.    Attribute       Road Map
  No.

  1      Skill              i. Create globally acceptable institutions to train
                               welders, supervisors and technologists
                           ii. Improve the level of skill through training and
                               refresher courses
                          iii. Obtain support from and involvement of industry and
                               Government
                         Approach to achieve
                               1. Adopt education & qualification system for
                                   welding personnel i.e. IIW model
                               2. Work for Improvement of image of welding with
                                   Govt. and public at large
                               3. Offer Bachelor’s degree in Welding Engineering
                               4. Participate in International meetings and
                                   encourage dissemination of information


  Sr.     Attribute      Approach to achieve
  No.

  2       Quality           i.    Apply international level of quality as the acceptable
                                  criteria. Make international standards like ISO 3834
                                  mandatory
                           ii.    Develop quality culture from the top
                          iii.    Encourage excellence in quality at all levels by
                                  suitable recognition
                          iv.     Improve quality of complementary products such as
                                  consumable, shielding gases, fluxes

  Sr.     Attribute      Approach to achieve
  No.
  3       Productivity      i.    Encourage use of sate of the art high productivity
                                  processes such as Tandem SAW, Tandem GMAW,
                                  Hot wire TIG, Narrow gap welding etc
                           ii.    Encourage use of automation and robotics
                          iii.    Set productivity norms at international levels




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  Sr.   Attribute           Approach to achieve
  No.
  4     Innovation      /     i.   Develop culture of innovation / R&D
           R&D               ii.   Work with Govt., academics and industry for better
                                   interaction
                            iii.   Creation of a national level welding development fund
                                   in line with WRC of USA.


9. CONCLUSIONS

Based on the above presentation we have identified four areas where action needs to
be taken:-

        Let us go global in competence
        Let us go global in cost and economy
        Let us go global in quality
        Let us innovate , organize & network our R&D

We, the volunteers of all professional bodies have an obligation towards the industry. I
am confident that if we decide to take action on all the fronts we shall definitely succeed
in giving industrial growth a major thrust to achieve the double-digit growth.

CONDUCTING VISION TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT CONFERENCE ON
WELDING

One suggestion is made in the recent IS 2008 conference was to conduct technology,
foresight/ vision conference of interested groups and stake holders at regular intervals to
identify key issues and priorities for further action.

Acknowledgement

I thank the Mumbai branch of IIW for this opportunity to present my thoughts on this
important subject and hope that we shall discuss such subjects at regular intervals.

Many friends have contributed in preparing this paper and I would like to thank
especially, Dr S Bhattacharya and Mr. Ashok Rai for their support.

                                       ***********




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