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									                                                                              MORGAN            STANLEY              RESEARCH
                                                                              NORTH          AMERICA


                                                                              Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated   Vincent Andrews
                                                                                                                  Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                  +1 (1)212 761 3293

                                                                                                                  Megan Davis
                                                                                                                  Megan.Davis@morganstanley.com
                                                                                                                  +1 (1)212 761 0031


                February 2, 2010


Stock Rating    Archer Daniels Midland
Equal-weight

Industry View
                Outlook Reflects Improving
Attractive
                Environment; Equal-Weight                                     Key Ratios and Statistics
                                                                              Reuters: ADM.N Bloomberg: ADM US
                                                                              Agricultural Products / United States of America
                Investment conclusion: Following ADM’s F2Q10                  Price target                                                       $33.00
                results that came in above our expectations, we are           Shr price, close (Feb 2, 2010)                                     $31.63
                retaining our Equal-weight rating on ADM but increasing       Mkt cap, curr (mm)                                                $21,358
                our F2010 EPS estimate to $3.10 from $2.70. To be             52-Week Range                                                $33.00-23.13
                clear, we are not increasing our $33 price target as the
                bulk of our EPS increase is related to ethanol (lower         Fiscal Year ending                     06/08     06/09    06/10e     06/11e

                multiple business) and oilseeds processing (potentially       ModelWare EPS ($)                       3.35      2.37       3.10       3.05
                unsustainable).                                               Prior ModelWare EPS ($)                    -      2.37       2.70       2.77
                                                                              EPS ($)**                               2.80      2.86       3.13       3.05
                                                                              Consensus EPS ($)§                      2.79      2.65       2.77       2.99
                C2010 outlook reflects improving environment. Our
                                                                              P/E                                     10.1      11.3       10.2       10.4
                base case assumes that: i) Ethanol profitability will hover
                                                                              Div yld (%)                              1.5       2.2        1.8        1.9
                around current levels as higher than expected volume          EV/EBITDA                                7.3       6.7        6.4        5.8
                should self as an offset to what looks to be a sequential     P/BV                                     1.7       1.3        1.4        1.3
                softening in margins; ii) Ag Services will benefit from       P/tang BV                                1.7       1.4        1.5        1.3
                large global crops in C2010 but profits will remain below     Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare
                                                                              framework (please see explanation later in this note).
                peak levels as global crop dislocations will likely remain    § = Consensus data is provided by FactSet Estimates.
                                                                              ** = Based on consensus methodology
                limited; iii) Oilseed Crushing margins will remain            e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
                elevated through March but will normalize following the
                South American harvest; iv) Biodiesel profitability will      Quarterly ModelWare EPS
                continue to improve on increased demand from Brazil
                                                                                                                     2009      2009     2010e      2010e
                and Europe, particularly related to higher blend              Quarter                     2008       Prior Current        Prior Current
                mandates; and iv) Sweeteners profitability will decline
                                                                              Q1                           0.77          -      1.17          -     0.69a
                slightly on lower pricing and volume, mostly offset by        Q2                           0.95       0.80      0.80          -     0.89a
                lower net corn costs and HFCS exports into Mexico.            Q3                           0.85          -      0.47       0.59      0.79
                                                                              Q4                           0.77          -      0.26       0.67      0.72
                Implications: Despite: i) F2Q10 was clearly a solid           e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual company reported data

                quarter despite the less than perfect environment; ii) The
                ethanol business continues to turn around and should
                contribute further given significant capacity coming
                on-stream in C2010; iii) ADM’s large scale CapEx
                program is winding down and EPS should be favorably
                affected as plants come online; iv) ADM’s balance sheet
                and cash flow remain strong; and v) ADM’s business            Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
                model is highly diversified (crops, products &                companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As
                geography), we believe it is unlikely that ADM’s EPS          a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
                                                                              have a conflict of interest that could affect the
                multiple will expand materially from here unless the
                                                                              objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors
                broader food group multiple re-expands closer to              should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a
                historical levels (i.e., ADM is unlike to trade at the same   single factor in making their investment decision.
                multiple as Kellogg or General Mills). This is particularly   For analyst certification and other important
                as a larger portion of earnings is related to ethanol         disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,
                (typically a lower multiple business).                        located at the end of this report.
                                                                                                            MORGAN               STANLEY   RESEARCH

                                                                                                            February 2, 2010
                                                                                                            Archer Daniels Midland




Risk-Reward Snapshot: Archer Daniels Midland (ADM, $31, EW, Target $33)
                                                                                                                                      Investment Thesis
Risk-Reward View: Global Macro Pessimism Driving Valuation
    $60                                                                                                                               • Equal-weight. While visibility on
                                                                                                                                        ADM’s new EPS base is clearer
     50
                                                                                                                                        following F2Q10’s high quality results,
                                                                                                                                        we think multiple expansion from here
                                                                                                                                        will be capped by overall sector
     40                                                                                                            $40 (+26%)
                                                                                                                                        multiples which remain below
                                                                                     $ 31.63
                                                                                                                 $33.00 (+4%)           average and therefore the stock is
     30
                                                                                                                                        fairly valued around current levels.
                                                                                                                                        Should we gain conviction in our
                                                                                                                   $21 (-34%)
     20                                                                                                                                 $3.30 Bull Case EPS expectation, we
                                                                                                                                        would review our rating.
     10                                                                                                                               • Of ADM’s more direct peers (BG,
                                                                                                                                        CPO), we expect ADM to remain most
      0                                                                                                                                 in investors’ favor given ADM’s
      Feb-08              Aug-08              Feb-09              Aug-09             Feb-10             Aug-10             Feb-11       broader crop, product, and
          Price Target (Feb-11)                     Historical Stock Performance                  Current Stock Price
                                                                                                                                        geographic footprint combined with its
 Price Target $33                         Derived from base-case scenario.                                                              substantial balance sheet, the
 Bull                 12-times Bull I) The current high crush margin environment persists even after                                    confluence of which we believe will
 Case                 Case $3.30    the South American crop is harvested next spring; II) C2010 HFCS                                    allow ADM to provide a more stable
 $40                  F2010 EPS     operating margins increase on lower net corn; III) Market                                           earnings stream.
                                    dislocations benefit ag services; IV) Biodiesel margins increase on                               • Long term thesis remains intact: ADM
                                    tight supply/demand; V) The ethanol blend cap is lifted to 12%.                                     should increasingly benefit from a
 Base                 Sum of the          I) The current high crush margin environment persists until the
                                                                                                                                        secular demand increase for
 Case                 Parts P/E           South American crop is harvested in March; II) C2010 HFCS                                     agricultural products.
 $33                  Valuation on        operating margins decline slightly; III) Global ag commodity                                • Valuation: ADM is currently trading at
                      C2010               supply/demand is relatively stable; IV) Biodiesel sees significant                            1.5-times book value vs.
                      Earnings            volume increases in C2010; V) Ethanol remains moderately                                      1.5-3.0-times historically
                                          profitable throughout F2010.
                                                                                                                                      Potential Catalysts
 Bear                 1x Book             I) Crush margins decline following the US harvest this fall; II)
 Case                 Value $22           C2010 HFCS operating margins decrease; III) Ag services is                                  • Ethanol blend cap – potential to move
 $21                                      negatively impacted by weak demand; IV) Poor biodiesel margins                                up to 15% from 10%
                                          overwhelm any volume increase; V) High corn prices keep ethanol                             • Decelerating developing world GDP &
                                          unprofitable.                                                                                 income growth
                                                                                                                                      • Commodity prices
Bear to Bull                                                                                                                          • Logistical arbitrage opportunities
 $40.00                                                                                           $2.00      $3.00                      brought about by global supply and
                                                                                      $2.00                              $40.00
 $35.00                                                        $3.00                                                                    demand dislocation
                                                  $3.00                                                                               • 2009/2010 South American soybean
 $30.00                                                                    $33.00
                                      $3.00                                                                                             crop and 2009/2010 US corn crop
                          $3.00
 $25.00                                                                                                                               • Reduction in US chicken, pork and
 $20.00                                                                                                                                 beef production could lower protein
           $21.00
                                                                                                                                        meal demand
 $15.00
               Bear       Oilseeds Ag Services Higher net Ethanol is        Base       Higher     Ethanol    Soybean      Bull
                                                                                                                                      • Ethanol vs. wholesale gasoline
               Case     declines on declines due corn costs unprofitable    Case     commodity prices rise    crush       Case        • Ethanol supply/demand balance:
                           weak       to weak       hurt    due to high                 prices               margins
                        demand and demand        sweetener   corn/low                  present             remain high                  potential for US plant disruptions
                           crush                  margins     ethanol                 arbitrage
                          margins                                                   opportunities                                       could decrease capacity and provide
                                                                                                                                        support for higher prices.
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                            2
                                                                                      MORGAN         STANLEY             RESEARCH

                                                                                      February 2, 2010
                                                                                      Archer Daniels Midland




Investment Case
Summary & Conclusions

Exhibit 1
F2010 Bull to Bear EPS

                          $3.50                                                                    $0.15 $0.05 $0.05
                                                              $0.10 $0.10
                          $3.00                   $0.15 $0.10                                                                         $3.35
                                                                                           $3.10
                          $2.50         $2.65
                          $2.00
                          $1.50
                          $1.00
                                          Bear     2% Ag Higher net Higher net Lower soy    Base    3% Ag      Rising     Oilseeds     Bull
                                          Case    Services  corn:     corn:     oil/meal    Case   Services    ethanol   processing    Case
                                                    OM     Ethanol Sweeteners prices                 OM         prices    remains
                                                                                                                            high

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 2
How we changed our F2010 EPS estimate
                                         New       Old
                                        F2010e    F2010e    Change
        FINANCIALS
        Underlying EPS (ex-LIFO)         $3.10     $2.70        $0.39

        SEGMENT INFORMATION
        Operating profit
        Oilseeds Processing              $1,177   $1,067         $109
           Crushing and Origination       $591     $494           $97
           Refining, biodiesel, other     $294     $263           $32
           Asia                           $291     $310          ($20)
        Corn Processing                    $996     $757         $239
           Sweetners and Starches         $643     $497          $146
           Bioproducts                    $353     $260           $93
        Agricultural Services              $655     $549         $107
           Merchandising/handling         $516     $470           $46
           Transportation                 $139      $78           $61
        Other                              $496     $378         $118
           Wheat, Cocoa, Malt             $418     $301          $117
           Financial                       $78      $77            $1
        Corporate                        ($465)   ($245)        ($220)
        Total                            $2,859   $2,506         $353
        Operating margin
        Oilseeds Processing               5.1%      4.4%         0.7%
        Corn Processing                  12.3%     10.3%         2.0%
        Agricultural Services             2.5%      2.3%         0.2%
        Other                             9.3%      7.0%         2.3%
        Total                             5.3%      4.5%         0.7%
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                              3
                                                                                 MORGAN                                                 STANLEY                                                               RESEARCH

                                                                                 February 2, 2010
                                                                                 Archer Daniels Midland




Agricultural Services
F2Q10 Recap: Ag services profitability continued to remain
                                                                                 Exhibit 5
near historical levels as the volume and margin opportunities
                                                                                 US Grain Inspected for Export (Corn, Soybeans,
seen in F2Q09 remained absent from F2Q10. Additionally, the
                                                                                 Wheat)
late US harvest led to declining utilization levels (less pressure
on the system given the slow, late pace of removing corn from
the fields), and barge freight rates declined. Providing some
benefit to the quarter was continued strong US soybean
exports.

Outlook: Given the lateness of the US harvest, we expect
some push out of F2Q09 US volume into F1Q10. Latest
estimates from the USDA also indicate that the South
American crop could be 33% larger in 2010 than 2009. The
importance of a larger crop in South America is that it allows for
higher throughput and utilization. ADM also noted the potential
                                                                                 Source: Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, USDA
for good wheat and corn crops coming out of Eastern, Western,
and Central America.                                                             Exhibit 6
                                                                                 Ocean Freight Rates
Exhibit 3
US Grain and Oilseed Exports                                                                              $80,000

                                                                                                          $70,000
            3,500,000
                                                                                                          $60,000
            3,000,000
                                                                                   U SD per Day




                                                                                                          $50,000

            2,500,000                                                                                     $40,000
   Tonnes




                                                                                                          $30,000
            2,000,000
                                                                                                          $20,000
            1,500,000
                                                                                                          $10,000

            1,000,000                                                                                                $0
                                                                                                                              J                 F                 M                     A                M                J                J                 A                 S                 O                N                D
             500,000
                        J   F   M   A   M   J      J   A      S    O     N   D                                                                                                                      2007                        2008                        2009                        2010

                                    2008    2009       2007       2010
                                                                                 Source: Morgan Stanley Commodity Shipping Research

Source: USDA, Morgan Stanley Research
                                                                                 Exhibit 7
Exhibit 4                                                                        US Grain Rail Movements
Illinois River Barge Freight Rate                                                 29,000
                                                                                                                                                                                  All Class 1 Originated Grain Carloads

                                                                                                                                                                                            2008                               2009                         2010
                                                                                  27,000




                                                                                  25,000




                                                                                  23,000




                                                                                  21,000




                                                                                  19,000




                                                                                  17,000




                                                                                  15,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             14-Aug

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      28-Aug
                                                                                                                                                                                            8-May

                                                                                                                                                                                                     22-May
                                                                                                  2-Jan

                                                                                                            16-Jan

                                                                                                                     30-Jan

                                                                                                                              13-Feb

                                                                                                                                       27-Feb




                                                                                                                                                                                                              5-Jun

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      19-Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               11-Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        25-Sep




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6-Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20-Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               18-Dec
                                                                                                                                                                      10-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                               24-Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3-Jul

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          17-Jul

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   31-Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 9-Oct

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         23-Oct
                                                                                                                                                13-Mar

                                                                                                                                                         27-Mar




                                                                                 Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Transportation and Marketing Programs, AMS, USDA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4
                                                                     MORGAN              STANLEY               RESEARCH

                                                                     February 2, 2010
                                                                     Archer Daniels Midland




Corn Processing: Bioproducts (largely Ethanol)
F2Q10 Recap: Bioproducts operating profit improved                   Exhibit 8

significantly during the quarter ($119 PBT vs. -$6 million in        Ethanol refining gross crush margins continue to
F1Q10 and -$111 in F2Q09). Excluding $34 million in start up         improve despite rising corn prices
costs related to the ethanol plants, co-gen facilities, sugarcane,        $1.80
PHA, ethanol propylene, and propylene glycol, PBT was $153                $1.60
million, or the strongest bioproducts quarter for ADM since               $1.40
F2Q07. We believe that this was largely a result of lower net             $1.20
corn and manufacturing costs, increased volume, and                       $1.00
favorable blending economics. ADM also noted increased                    $0.80
volume and margins for lysine.                                            $0.60
                                                                                   J     F     M     A     M      J     J     A      S     O     N       D

Outlook: We expect ethanol PBT to average ~$120 per                                                2010           2009          2008           2007
quarter for the remainder of F2010 on slightly lower margins
                                                                     Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Feedstuffs, Morgan Stanley Research
(ethanol cash margins have declined slightly since F2Q10) but        Note: Gross crush margin is calculated as ethanol price less wet mill net corn costs per bushel,
                                                                     assuming 2.8 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn.
increased capacity. Start-up costs likely peaked during the
quarter. ADM now believes that its Columbus, Ohio ethanol            Exhibit 9
plant can produce ~300 million gallons per year versus its           Blending economics are positive
previous estimate of 275 gallons per year. Additionally, ADM                                  C3Q08 C4Q08 C1Q09 C2Q09 C3Q09                    C4Q09         2/2/2020
                                                                     Ethanol                   $2.42 $1.81 $1.58 $1.66 $1.59                    $1.95           $1.80
converted ~50 million gallons of wet mill capacity to potential      RBOB                      $3.12 $1.66 $1.24 $1.71 $1.85                    $1.94           $1.95
ethanol production (ADM can choose to swing that capacity            Spread                   -$0.70 $0.15 $0.34 -$0.05 -$0.26                  $0.01          -$0.15
                                                                     Tax Credit                $0.51 $0.51 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45                    $0.45           $0.45
between ethanol and several other product streams).
                                                                     Cost 10% ethanol          -$0.24 -$0.18 -$0.16 -$0.17 -$0.16               -$0.20         -$0.18
While spot ethanol margins have declined since F2Q10,                Sell at RBOB price         $0.31 $0.17 $0.12 $0.17 $0.19                    $0.19          $0.20
                                                                     Tax Credit                 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05                    $0.05          $0.05
blending economics remain supportive of discretionary                Blending margin           $0.12 $0.04 $0.01 $0.05 $0.07                    $0.04          $0.06
blending. With ethanol at $1.80 per gallon, wholesale gasoline       Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
(RBOB) at $1.95 per gallon, and a $0.45 tax credit, we see
blending margins at ~$0.06 per gallon. The futures market            Ethanol Market Update 1
shows ethanol producers remaining profitable throughout 2010,        Production. At present, we believe that the market will produce
though 2H10 margins begin to decline toward break-even               12.3 billion gallons in 2010 relative to 10.7 billion gallons in
levels.                                                              2009 and 9.2 billion gallons in 2008.

Potential for a higher blend rate. On March 6, 2009, Growth          Capacity. We estimate that current capacity is 11.8-12.3 billion
Energy (an industry group representing ethanol producers)            gallons, with 1.1-1.2 billion gallons of capacity idled. We
requested a Clean Air Act waiver from the EPA to allow for the       believe that 1-1.4 billion gallons of capacity is currently under
use of E12 and E13 and to study the value of E15. At present         construction.
the blending cap is E10, meaning that ethanol can be blended
into gasoline at a maximum of 10% parts. On November 30,             Gasoline Demand. We believe gasoline consumption was
2009, the EPA issued a response to Growth Energy stating that        ~138 billion gallons in 2009, and we expect gasoline
it would study the matter (the EPA hopes to have a significant       consumption to be ~137 billion gallons in 2010.
amount of data evaluating the impact of E15 on motor vehicles
by mid-June) and could be in a position to approve E15 for           Ethanol Demand. Ethanol consumption likely averaged ~10.7
2001 and newer vehicles sometime during the summer. The              billion gallons per year in 2009, and we expect it to average
EPA is also looking into potential changes to fuel pump labeling     ~12.1 billion gallons in 2010.
should the use of something greater than E10 ultimately be
allowed. We believe that each 1% increase in the blend rate          Blending economics. Blending economics are currently
would require an incremental ~500 bushels of corn (~4% of the        positive in all regional markets.
US corn crop), all else equal.
                                                                     1
                                                                         Source: Houston Biofuels Consultants LLC



                                                                                                                                                                  5
                                                                             MORGAN                        STANLEY        RESEARCH

                                                                             February 2, 2010
                                                                             Archer Daniels Midland




Corn Processing: Sweeteners & Starches
F2Q10 Recap: Sweeteners and starches profitability improved                  Exhibit 12

during F2Q10 on lower net corn and manufacturing costs.                      US HFCS Exports to Mexico
Increased exports into Mexico likely somewhat offset
                                                                                                     450,000
continued weakness in the US market (weak beverage and




                                                                                 Tonnes, dry basis
                                                                                                     400,000
industrial starch demand).                                                                           350,000
                                                                                                     300,000
                                                                                                     250,000
Outlook: ADM completed its sweeteners and starches                                                   200,000
contract negotiations for 2010, reporting a high-single-digit                                        150,000
                                                                                                     100,000
decrease in selling prices across its portfolio. Nonetheless, the                                     50,000
company expects margin degradation to be less severe given                                                 0
that net corn costs should also decline (F1H10 margins were




                                                                                                               00

                                                                                                                    01

                                                                                                                            02

                                                                                                                             03

                                                                                                                             04

                                                                                                                             05

                                                                                                                             06

                                                                                                                             07

                                                                                                                         20 8
                                                                                                                               e
                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                           09
impacted by high corn costs). Net, we believe that C2010




                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                           20

                                                                                                                20

                                                                                                                     20

                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                          20
sweeteners and starches EBIT will likely be between $500 and
$600 million. We also believe that US volume will likely remain                                                      1st Q.   2nd Q.   3rd Q.     4th Q.
weak on continued soft beverage and industrial demand,                       Source: US Census Bureau, HTS Export Data, Morgan Stanley Research
slightly offset by improvement to Mexico.
                                                                             Exhibit 13

Exhibit 10                                                                   Corn Co-Products and Recovery Rate
Corn: Dotted line represents futures curve                                                 65%                                                             $3.50
                                                                                                                                                           $3.00
  $4.60
                                                                                           55%                                                             $2.50
  $4.40
                                                                                                                                                           $2.00
                                                                               $/bu




  $4.20
                                                                                           45%
  $4.00                                                                                                                                                    $1.50
  $3.80
                                                                                           35%                                                             $1.00
  $3.60                                                                                                                                                    $0.50
  $3.40                                                                                    25%                                                             $0.00
  $3.20                                                                                                J- M- S- J- M- S- J- M- S- J- M- S- J-
  $3.00                                                                                                06 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 08 09 09 09 10
      Jan-09 Apr-09     Jul-09   Oct-09   Jan-10 Apr-10    Jul-10   Oct-10
                                                                             Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Feedstuffs, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Bloomberg, CBOT, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 11
US HFCS Deliveries                                                           How do movements in the price of corn affect ADM?
  10,000                                                                     We believe that ADM typically runs its business with spot corn.
   9,000
                                                                             As such, ADM benefits most in a declining corn price
   8,000
   7,000                                                                     environment as declining cost prices typically lower the overall
   6,000                                                                     net corn cost. For example, if a product is contracted at some
   5,000
   4,000                                                                     amount when net corn costs are $2 per bushel, but then net
   3,000                                                                     corn costs decline to $1.50 per bushel, the margin ADM makes
   2,000
   1,000
                                                                             to produce that product would likely increase for that year.
       0                                                                     Additionally, we would expect volume to be higher in a lower
                                                                             corn price environment.
        92

        93

        94

        95

        96

        97

        98

        99

         00

         01

         02

        03

        04

        05

        06

        07

        08

        09
      20

      20

      20
      19

      19

      19

      19

      19

      19

      19

      19




      20

      20

      20

      20

      20

      20

      20




                                    Q1    Q2   Q3   Q4

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                              6
                                                                                                                                                                  MORGAN                        STANLEY             RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                  February 2, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                  Archer Daniels Midland




Oilseeds Processing
F1Q10 Recap: Oilseeds processing operating profit remained                                                                                                        Exhibit 15

at above normal rates during the quarter as extremely tight                                                                                                       US Soy crush
soybean supplies led to higher margins (6.3% in F2Q09 vs.
                                                                                                                                                                                      170,000
7.2% in F2Q10). Board crush margins averaged $0.90 per                                                                                                                                160,000
bushel during the quarter, or $0.06 higher than F1Q09 (+7%)                                                                                                                           150,000




                                                                                                                                                                      1,000 bushels
and $0.33 higher than F2Q09 (+59%). Additionally,                                                                                                                                     140,000
improvement in South American biodiesel margins were more                                                                                                                             130,000
than offset by lower margins in Europe and North America.                                                                                                                             120,000
                                                                                                                                                                                      110,000
                                                                                                                                                                                      100,000
Outlook: We expect that soybean crush margins will remain                                                                                                                              90,000
elevated until March when the South American harvest begins                                                                                                                                         J    F     M    A    M         J       J       A       S       O       N    D
in earnest. Note, however, that ADM expects crush margins to
                                                                                                                                                                                              2008           2007        2006              2005                2004            2009
remain strong through the end of the year, and that F2010
crush margins will be better than F2009 crush margins largely                                                                                                     Source: National Oilseeds Processors Association, Morgan Stanley Research

as a result of stronger feed demand (improving livestock raising                                                                                                  Exhibit 16
profitability, particularly in hogs). Additionally, biodiesel                                                                                                     US crush capacity utilization
demand should benefit from stronger volume throughout the
balance of F2010 related to the B5 mandate in Brazil and                                                                                                             100%
strong demand in Europe. ADM expects demand for Spain,                                                                                                                90%
Italy, and the UK will increase 20-30% based on EU mandates.
                                                                                                                                                                      80%

Demand also appears to be improving, though global protein                                                                                                            70%
meal consumers continue to operate hand to mouth. During
                                                                                                                                                                      60%
09/10 industry sources project 1-4% protein meal consumption
led by Asia and South America. Additionally, vegetable                                                                                                                50%
inventories remain stable at elevated inventories.                                                                                                                                        J     F       M      A    M      J       J           A       S       O       N       D

                                                                                                                                                                                        2008            2007        2006           2005                2004            2009
Exhibit 14
Soy crush margin                                                                                                                                                  Source: National Oilseeds Processors Association, Morgan Stanley Research

 $2.00                                                                                                                                                            Exhibit 17
 $1.80                                                                                                                                                            Brazil soybean crush
 $1.60                                                                                                                                                               3,500
 $1.40
                                                                                                                                                                     3,000
 $1.20

 $1.00
                                                                                                                                                                     2,500
 $0.80

 $0.60                                                                                                                                                               2,000
 $0.40

 $0.20                                                                                                                                                               1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2005/06              2006/07                     2007/08
 $0.00                                                                                                                                                                                                    2008/09              2009/10
                                    Nov-07




                                                                                          Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                Nov-09
         May-07




                                                               May-08




                                                                                                                     May-09
                  Jul-07

                           Sep-07




                                             Jan-08

                                                      Mar-08




                                                                        Jul-08

                                                                                 Sep-08




                                                                                                   Jan-09

                                                                                                            Mar-09




                                                                                                                              Jul-09

                                                                                                                                       Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                         Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                     1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                           F     M       A     M     J         J       A       S       O        N      D        J
Note: Soy crush is calculated as soybean meal price per pound * 44 + soybean oil price per                                                                        Source: Brazil Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, Morgan Stanley Research
pound * 11 – soybean price per bushel.
Source: CBOT, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7
                                                                                                                                                                   MORGAN                        STANLEY                                   RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                   February 2, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                   Archer Daniels Midland




Valuation and Risks
Our base case price target for ADM is $33 per share based                                                                                                          Exhibit 20

on our sum-of-the-parts valuation on C2010 EPS. Despite                                                                                                            ADM Price/Earnings
our $0.39 EPS raise, we are not raising our price target                                                                                                            30.0x
because our EPS raise is driven primarily by higher expected
ethanol operating profit. As a relatively volatile business with                                                                                                    25.0x

which a significant amount of uncertainty is associated, we
                                                                                                                                                                    20.0x
believe that investors will be willing to pay only ~8-times EPS                                                                                                                                                     +1 Std Dev

for that EPS stream. Additionally, while ADM has historically                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Average
                                                                                                                                                                    15.0x
traded in a 14-16-times EPS range that was when the broader
packaged food group (i.e., ADM’s customers) was trading at                                                                                                          10.0x -1 Std Dev

high-teens and low twenties multiples rather than their current
                                                                                                                                                                     5.0x
mid-teens multiples. Given the material differences in ADM’s
business model and cash flow generation/payout relative to its                                                                                                       0.0x




                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-02

                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-02

                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-03

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-10
customers, we do not expect ADM’s multiple to expand
materially unless the packaged food group’s multiple also
increases (note: this is not our expectation). Our
                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
sum-of-the-parts EPS valuation brings us to a fair value of $33
per share.                                                                                                                                                         Risks: Higher commodity prices significantly increase working
                                                                                                                                                                   capital needs; Governments: Political support for biofuels
Exhibit 18
                                                                                                                                                                   policy dissipates; and Weather: Flood, drought, or another
ADM sum-of-the-parts valuation                                                                                                                                     natural disaster in one of the world’s key growing regions.
                      F2010 PBT                                                                                 P/E                Per Share
Ethanol                  $353                                                                                   8.0                    $3.05
Sweeteners/Starches       $643                                                                                 12.0                    $8.34
Ag Services               $655                                                                                 10.0                    $7.08
Oilseeds                $1,177                                                                                 12.0                   $15.26
Other                     $496                                                                                 10.0                    $5.36
Corporate                ($465)                                                                                12.0                   ($6.03)
Total                   $2,859                                                                                                        $33.06
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 19
ADM Price/Book Value
 3.5x

 3.0x

 2.5x
           +1 Std Dev
 2.0x
                 Average
 1.5x

 1.0x                      -1 Std Dev

 0.5x

 0.0x
        Jan-02

                  Jul-02

                            Jan-03

                                     Jul-03

                                              Jan-04

                                                       Jul-04

                                                                Jan-05

                                                                         Jul-05

                                                                                  Jan-06

                                                                                           Jul-06

                                                                                                    Jan-07

                                                                                                             Jul-07

                                                                                                                      Jan-08

                                                                                                                               Jul-08

                                                                                                                                        Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                 Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                          Jan-10




Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8
                                                                                             MORGAN               STANLEY         RESEARCH

                                                                                             February 2, 2010
                                                                                             Archer Daniels Midland




Exhibit 21
ADM Quarterly & Annual Segment Data
                                   2008          2009      2010E      2011E      2012E       1Q09       2Q09       3Q09       4Q09      1Q10       2Q10e      3Q10e      4Q10e
Net sales to external customers
Oilseeds Processing                $23,279      $24,518    $22,931    $23,619    $23,860     $7,772     $5,296     $4,689     $6,761     $6,358     $4,880     $5,543     $6,150
   Crushing and Origination        $14,477      $15,579    $14,971    $15,421    $15,575     $4,883     $2,982     $2,786     $4,260     $4,504     $3,223     $3,427     $3,818
   Refining, packaging, biodiese    $8,588       $8,760     $7,709     $7,940     $8,019     $2,844     $2,264     $1,858     $2,429     $1,814     $1,585     $2,044     $2,266
   Asia                               $214         $179       $251       $258       $266        $45        $50        $45        $72        $40        $73        $72        $66
Corn Processing                     $7,137       $7,723     $8,078     $9,064     $9,173     $2,241     $1,853     $1,725     $1,904     $1,916     $2,029     $2,008     $2,125
   Sweetners and Starches           $3,546       $3,785     $3,634     $3,634     $3,743     $1,039       $944       $852     $1,048       $886       $925       $895       $928
   Bioproducts                      $3,591       $3,938     $4,444     $5,430     $5,430     $1,202       $909       $873       $856     $1,030     $1,104     $1,113     $1,197
Agricultural Services              $33,968      $31,584    $26,545    $27,341    $28,162     $9,569     $8,141     $7,302     $6,572     $5,322     $7,640     $6,727     $6,857
   Merchandising/handling          $33,749      $31,342    $26,327    $27,117    $27,931     $9,496     $8,062     $7,253     $6,534     $5,281     $7,569     $6,673     $6,805
   Transportation                     $219         $242       $218       $224       $231        $73        $79        $49        $38        $41        $71        $54        $52
Other                               $5,432       $5,382     $5,318     $5,579     $5,853     $1,578     $1,383     $1,126     $1,295     $1,325     $1,364     $1,236     $1,393
   Wheat, Cocoa, Malt (previous     $5,335       $5,272     $5,219     $5,480     $5,754     $1,550     $1,353     $1,100     $1,274     $1,302     $1,340     $1,210     $1,367
   Financial                           $97         $110        $99        $99        $99        $28        $30        $26        $21        $23        $24        $26        $26
Total                              $69,816      $69,207    $62,872    $65,603    $67,048    $21,160    $16,673    $14,842    $16,532    $14,921    $15,913    $15,513    $16,525

Reported Profit before taxes
Oilseeds Processing                 $1,068       $1,280     $1,177     $1,076     $1,100       $510       $334       $206       $227       $284       $352       $288       $253
   Crushing and Origination           $727         $767       $591       $501       $530       $339       $202       $100       $141       $135       $193       $147       $116
   Refining, packaging, biodiese      $209         $265       $294       $278       $265       $106        $86        $52        $21        $70        $76        $76        $73
   Asia                               $132         $248       $291       $297       $306        $65        $46        $54        $65        $79        $83        $65        $64
Corn Processing                       $961         $185       $996     $1,016     $1,033       $118        $29        $44       ($11)      $188       $290       $259       $259
   Sweetners and Starches             $529         $500       $643       $545       $561        $65       $140       $141       $149       $194       $171       $139       $139
   Bioproducts                        $432        ($315)      $353       $471       $471        $53      ($111)      ($97)     ($160)       ($6)      $119       $120       $120
Agricultural Services               $1,017         $994       $655       $650       $669       $428       $462       $119       ($17)      $175       $150       $165       $166
   Merchandising/handling             $873         $832       $516       $515       $531       $385       $385        $89       ($29)      $157       $103       $127       $129
   Transportation                     $144         $162       $139       $135       $139        $43        $77        $30        $12        $18        $47        $38        $37
Other                                 $423          ($6)      $496       $463       $482       $111         $3      ($140)        $2       $127       $132       $116       $120
   Processing (previously Whea        $217          $51       $418       $384       $403        $94        $60      ($123)       $13       $107       $113        $97       $101
   Financial                          $206         ($57)       $78        $79        $79        $17       ($57)      ($17)      ($11)       $20        $19        $20        $20
Total                               $3,469       $2,453     $3,324     $3,205     $3,284     $1,167       $828       $229       $201       $774       $924       $827       $798
   Corporate                         ($248)       ($436)     ($465)     ($400)     ($400)     ($135)     ($120)      ($97)      ($92)     ($133)     ($132)     ($100)     ($100)
Profit before taxes                 $3,221       $2,017     $2,859     $2,805     $2,884     $1,032       $708       $132       $109       $641       $792       $727       $698
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                 9
                                                                                               MORGAN               STANLEY           RESEARCH

                                                                                               February 2, 2010
                                                                                               Archer Daniels Midland




Exhibit 22
ADM Quarterly & Annual Income Statement
                                    2008        2009      2010E       2011E      2012E       1Q09        2Q09        3Q09        4Q09        1Q10       2Q10e       3Q10e      4Q10e
Net Sales                          $69,816     $69,207    $62,872     $65,603    $67,048    $21,160     $16,673     $14,842     $16,532     $14,921     $15,913     $15,513    $16,525
Cost of Goods Sold                 $65,405     $65,635    $58,629     $61,006    $62,359    $19,746     $15,584     $14,188     $16,117     $14,024     $14,852     $14,365    $15,388
Gross Profit                        $4,411      $3,572     $4,242      $4,597     $4,688     $1,414      $1,089       $654        $415         $897      $1,061      $1,148     $1,137
SG&A (adjusted)                     $1,409      $1,448     $1,446      $1,509     $1,542       $418       $332        $159        $327         $354        $358       $357        $377
Charges/Unusual items                    $0         $0          $0         $0         $0          $0          $0          $0          $0          $0          $0         $0         $0
Operating income                    $3,002      $2,124     $2,796      $3,088     $3,146       $996       $757        $495           $88       $543        $703        $791       $759
    Interest expense                   $477       $430       $410        $410       $410       $129        $120          $93         $88         $98       $105        $103       $105
    Investment income                ($269)      ($181)     ($149)      ($162)     ($183)       ($54)       ($48)       ($43)       ($36)       ($30)       ($36)      ($39)      ($44)
Interest expense, net                  $208       $249       $261        $248       $227         $75         $72         $50         $52         $68         $69        $64        $61
    Net (gain) loss on mkt sec.        ($38)        $6         ($7)        $0         $0         ($9)         $0          $0        $15          ($1)        ($6)        $0         $0
    Equity in (earnings) losses of   ($415)      ($145)     ($291)         $0         $0      ($123)       ($93)      $136         ($65)      ($152)      ($139)         $0         $0
    Other, net                          $44        $33       ($26)        $35        $35         $21        $70        ($35)       ($23)       ($13)       ($13)         $0         $0
Other expense, net                    ($201)      $143        ($63)      $283       $262        ($36)        $49      $151          ($21)       ($98)       ($89)       $64        $61
Pretax Income                       $3,203      $1,981     $2,859      $2,805     $2,884     $1,032       $708        $344        $109         $641        $792        $727       $698
Taxes                               $1,036        $456       $869        $839       $857       $277        $195          $40       ($56)       $197        $221        $218       $233
    Tax rate                            32%        23%        30%         30%        30%         27%        28%         12%        -51%          31%         28%        30%        33%
Minority Interest                                   $1         ($6)                                           $1                                             ($6)
Underlying Net Income               $2,167      $1,524     $1,996      $1,966     $2,027       $755       $512         $304        $165        $444        $577       $509       $466

Reconciliation to GAAP               ($365)      $183         $42                             $295         $73        ($296)      ($101)       $52         ($10)
GAAP Net Income                     $1,802      $1,707     $2,038      $1,966     $2,027     $1,050       $585           $8         $64       $496        $567
GAAP EPS                             $2.79       $2.65      $3.16       $3.05      $3.15      $1.63       $0.91       $0.01       $0.10       $0.77       $0.88       $0.00      $0.00

LIFO gain (charge), net              ($358)      $321         $19                              $282        $77          ($4)       ($34)       $53         ($34)
Net Income Adjusted for Consen      $1,809      $1,845     $2,015      $1,966     $2,027     $1,037       $589        $300        $131        $497        $543        $509       $466
EPS Adjusted for Consensus           $2.80       $2.86      $3.13       $3.05      $3.15      $1.61       $0.92       $0.47       $0.20       $0.77       $0.84       $0.79      $0.72

BEPS                                 $3.40       $2.44      $3.21       $3.17      $3.27      $1.21       $0.82       $0.49       $0.26       $0.71       $0.92       $0.81      $0.72
DEPS                                 $3.35       $2.37      $3.10       $3.05      $3.15      $1.17       $0.80       $0.47       $0.26       $0.69       $0.89       $0.79      $0.72
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                                                                                    10
                                                                        MORGAN        STANLEY         RESEARCH

                                                                        February 2, 2010
                                                                        Archer Daniels Midland




Exhibit 23
ADM Balance Sheet
                                                 2008        2009       2010E       2011E        2012E
Current Assets
   Cash and equivalents                            $810      $1,055        $921      $1,320       $1,965
   Segregated cash and investments               $2,035      $2,930      $2,930      $2,930       $2,930
   Receivables                                  $11,483      $7,311      $8,613      $8,987       $9,185
   Inventories                                  $10,160      $7,782      $8,031      $8,357       $8,542
   Other assets                                    $967        $330        $330        $330         $330
Total Current Assets                            $25,455     $19,408     $20,825     $21,924      $22,952


   Investments in and advances to affiliates     $2,773      $2,459      $2,459      $2,459       $2,459
   Long-term marketable securities                 $590        $626        $626        $626         $626
   Goodwill                                        $506        $532        $532        $532         $532
   Other assets                                    $607        $610        $610        $610         $610
PP&E
   Land                                             $238        $240
   Buildings                                      $3,207      $3,304
   Machinery and equiptment                      $12,410     $13,052
   Construction in progress                       $1,924      $2,245
Gross PP&E                                       $17,779     $18,841     $20,491     $21,991      $23,491
   Allowance for depreciation                   ($10,654)   ($10,891)   ($11,641)   ($12,391)    ($13,141)
Net PP&E                                          $7,125      $7,950      $8,850      $9,600      $10,350

TOTAL ASSETS                                    $37,056     $31,585     $33,902     $35,751      $37,529


Current Liabilities
   Short term debt                               $3,123        $356        $356        $356         $356
   Accounts payable                              $6,544      $5,786      $6,425      $6,686       $6,834
   Accrued expenses                              $4,722      $2,695      $2,695      $2,695       $2,695
   Current maturities of LTD                       $232         $48          $0          $0           $0
Total Current Liabilities                       $14,621      $8,885      $9,476      $9,737       $9,885

    Long term debt                               $7,690      $7,800      $7,848      $7,848       $7,848
    Deferred income taxes                         $473        $230        $230        $230         $230
    Other                                          $782      $1,171      $1,171      $1,171       $1,171

TOTAL LIABILITIES                               $23,566     $18,086     $18,725     $18,986      $19,134

Shareholders' Equity
   Common stock                                  $5,039      $5,022      $5,022      $5,022       $5,022
   Reinvested earnings                           $7,494      $8,832     $10,510     $12,098      $13,729
   Accumulated OCI                                 $957       ($355)      ($355)      ($355)       ($355)
Total Shareholders's Equity                     $13,490     $13,499     $15,177     $16,765      $18,396

TOTAL LIABILITIES & SE                          $37,056     $31,585     $33,902     $35,751      $37,529
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                                 11
                                                                        MORGAN        STANLEY       RESEARCH

                                                                        February 2, 2010
                                                                        Archer Daniels Midland




Exhibit 24
ADM Cash Flow Statement
                                                        2008    2009       2010E       2011E      2012E
Net income                                              $1,802  $1,707      $2,038     $1,966     $2,027
D&A                                                       $721    $730        $750       $750       $750
Asset abondonment/goodwill                                 $32     $13          $0         $0         $0
Deferred income taxes                                    ($128)    $34          $0         $0         $0
Amortization of LTD discount                                $0      $0          $0         $0         $0
(Gain) loss on marketable securities                      ($38)     $4          $0         $0         $0
(Gain) on sale of businesses                               ($8)   ($24)         $0         $0         $0
(Gain) on exchange of unconsolidated affiliates            ($8)    $11          $0         $0         $0
Equity in (earnings) loss of affiliates, net of divide   ($283)    $54          $0         $0         $0
Stock contributed to employee benefit plans                $29     $52          $0         $0         $0
Pension and postretirement payments in excess              $36   ($161)         $0         $0         $0
Other - net                                               $249   ($161)         $0         $0         $0
Segregated cash and investments                          ($614)  ($426)         $0         $0         $0
Receivables                                            ($1,975) $3,680     ($1,302)     ($374)     ($198)
Inventories                                            ($4,580) $1,899       ($249)     ($326)     ($185)
Other assets                                             ($174)   $152          $0         $0         $0
Accounts payable and accrued expenses                   $1,735 ($2,223)       $639       $260       $148
Cashflow from operations                               ($3,204) $5,341      $1,876     $2,277     $2,542


Puchases of PP&E (capex)                             ($1,779) ($1,898) ($1,650) ($1,500)          ($1,500)
Sale of PP&E                                             $52      $65       $0       $0                $0
Sale of businesses                                       $11     $258       $0       $0                $0
Net assets of businesses acquired                       ($13)   ($198)      $0       $0                $0
Investmetns in and advances to affiliates               ($32)    ($15)      $0       $0                $0
Distributions from affiliates, excluding dividends       $54      $11       $0       $0                $0
Purchases of marketable securities                   ($1,405) ($2,402)      $0       $0                $0
Proceeds from sales of marketable securities          $1,222   $2,312       $0       $0                $0
Other - net                                              ($5)     ($4)      $0       $0                $0
Cashflow from investing activities                   ($1,895) ($1,871) ($1,650) ($1,500)          ($1,500)


Long-term debt borrowings                          $3,095    $125               $0          $0        $0
Long-term debt payments                              ($69)   ($24)              $0          $0        $0
Net borrowings (payments) under line of credit ag $2,574 ($2,890)               $0          $0        $0
Purchases of treasury stock                          ($61)  ($100)              $0          $0        $0
Sale of stock warrants related to convertible note     $0      $0               $0          $0        $0
Purchase of call options related to convertible no     $0      $0               $0          $0        $0
Cash dividends                                      ($316)  ($347)           ($360)      ($378)    ($397)
Other                                                 $23     $11               $0          $0        $0
Cashflow from financing activities                 $5,246 ($3,225)           ($360)      ($378)    ($397)

Increase (decrease) in cash and equivalents            $147     $245         ($134)      $399      $646
Beginning of year                                      $663      $810       $1,055       $921     $1,320
End of year                                            $810    $1,055         $921      $1,320    $1,965
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research




                                                                                                               12
                                                                                MORGAN         STANLEY         RESEARCH

                                                                                February 2, 2010
                                                                                Archer Daniels Midland




                                                      Morgan Stanley ModelWare is a proprietary analytic framework that helps clients
                                                      uncover value, adjusting for distortions and ambiguities created by local accounting
                                                      regulations. For example, ModelWare EPS adjusts for one-time events, capitalizes operating
                                                      leases (where their use is significant), and converts inventory from LIFO costing to a FIFO
                                                      basis. ModelWare also emphasizes the separation of operating performance of a company
                                                      from its financing for a more complete view of how a company generates earnings.



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Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies
As of December 31, 2009, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered
in Morgan Stanley Research: Archer Daniels Midland, Corn Products International Inc., Intrepid Potash, Monsanto Company.
As of January 29, 2010, Morgan Stanley held a net long or short position of US$1 million or more of the debt securities of the following issuers covered
in Morgan Stanley Research (including where guarantor of the securities): Agrium Inc., Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge Ltd., Corn Products
International Inc., Monsanto Company, Mosaic Company, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Bunge Ltd., Potash Corp of
Saskatchewan Inc.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge Ltd., CF
Industries, Corn Products International Inc., Monsanto Company, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc.
In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Agrium Inc., Archer
Daniels Midland, Bunge Ltd., CF Industries, Corn Products International Inc., Intrepid Potash, Monsanto Company, Mosaic Company, Potash Corp of
Saskatchewan Inc.
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                                                                                              February 2, 2010
                                                                                              Archer Daniels Midland




                              Coverage Universe    Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
                                             % of                   % of % of Rating
Stock Rating Category            Count       Total     Count Total IBC Category
Overweight/Buy                     999          40%            296         41%           30%
Equal-weight/Hold                1088           43%            333         46%           31%
Not-Rated/Hold                       21           1%              4          1%          19%
Underweight/Sell                   396          16%             90         12%           23%
Total                           2,504                          723

Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual
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                                                                                             February 2, 2010
                                                                                             Archer Daniels Midland




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                                                                                                                                                                            15
                                                                                       MORGAN    STANLEY            RESEARCH




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Industry Coverage:Agricultural Products

Company (Ticker)                              Rating (as of) Price* (02/02/2010)


Vincent Andrews
Agrium Inc. (AGU.N)                                       ++                     $60
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.N)                E (06/13/2008)                  $31.63
Bunge Ltd. (BG.N)                             E (03/19/2009)                  $61.39
CF Industries (CF.N)                                      ++                  $96.28
Corn Products International Inc.              E (01/29/2009)                  $31.39
(CPO.N)
Intrepid Potash (IPI.N)                      E (09/04/2008)                  $26.38
Monsanto Company (MON.N)                     O (05/14/2007)                  $77.28
Mosaic Company (MOS.N)                       O (09/04/2008)                  $56.35
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc              O (09/04/2008)                 $104.46
(POT.N)

Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
* Historical prices are not split adjusted.




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