Climate Change Adaptation and Integrated Water Resources Management by ves88494

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									Climate Change Adaptation
and IWRM




                Global Water Partnership
Presentation outline
                                            mitigation                impacts on
                            adaptation is                impacts on                IWRM – the
                                               and                       water
                             about water                   water                   way forward
                                            adaptation                management




                                                            climate
                                      climate
                                                            change
adaptation is   mitigation and        change                                IWRM – the
                                                          impacts on
about water      adaptation         impacts on                              way forward
                                                             water
                                       water
                                                         management
                                                                                     mitigation                           impacts on
IPCC Report                                                  it’s about
                                                                water
                                                                                        and
                                                                                     adaptation
                                                                                                            impacts on
                                                                                                              water
                                                                                                                            water
                                                                                                                         management
                                                                                                                                       IWRM – the
                                                                                                                                       way forward




  In addition to increased temperatures and
  sea level rise, IPCC predicts:
    • Heavy and more frequent precipitation
      events
    • Area affected by droughts will increase
    • Intense tropical cyclone activity will
      increase
    • Snow cover will contract
    • Extra-tropical storm tracks will move
      poleward
    • Increases in precipitation in high latitudes
    • Decreases in precipitation in most sub-
      tropical land regions
  IPCC 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working
  Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
                                            mitigation                 impacts on

IPCC Report
                               it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                               and                       water
                                  water                    water                    way forward
                                            adaptation                management




   Relative changes in precipitation (by percent) for the period 2090-2099, relative to
  1980-1999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES based on the A1B
   scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas
 are where 66% of the models agree on the sign of the change and stippled areas are
          where more than 90% of the models agree on the sign of the change.
                                mitigation                 impacts on
Challenges
                   it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                   and                       water
                      water                    water                    way forward
                                adaptation                management




   If we fail to make the connection between
   climate change and water:

     • Water supplies unsustainable
     • Infrastructure inadequate
     • Consequences in water-intensive sectors
       such as industry and agriculture
                               mitigation                 impacts on
Key message
                  it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                  and                       water
                     water                    water                    way forward
                               adaptation                management



  If our global energy habits are the focus for
  mitigation, the way we use and manage our water
  must become the focus for adaptation



              Mitigation = Energy
              Adaptation = Water
                                       mitigation
                                      mitigation                  impacts on
Integrated approach      it’s about
                         it’s about
                            water
                            water
                                          and
                                                    impacts on
                                                      water
                                                                    water
                                                                               IWRM – the
                                                                               way forward
                                      adaptation
                                      adaptation                 management




  Need an approach that embraces both
  mitigation and adaptation




                      “Irrespective of the scale of mitigation measures,
                                  adaptation measures are necessary.”
                                IPCC – Climate Change 2007: Mitigation
                                     mitigation                 impacts on
Mitigation
                        it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                        and                       water
                           water                    water                    way forward
                                     adaptation                management




  Need to tap the         Balance the                      Reduce the
      world’s             allocation of                 energy-intensive
   hydroelectric        scarce land and                     nature of
 energy potential in    water resources                 desalination and
   ways that are           for biofuel                    groundwater
    socially and       production against              based approaches
  environmentally        other key uses                   to increasing
    responsible                                        freshwater supply
Adaptation
                                    mitigation                 impacts on
                       it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                       and                       water
                          water                    water                    way forward
                                    adaptation                management




 Need better, more     Need to ensure                    Best way for
  intelligent, water      that water                   countries to build
   management to       challenges are                     capacity for
   address future       addressed in                      adaptation:
    challenges of      broader climate                 improve ability to
   climate change        change and                    cope with climate
                        development                     variability today
                          strategies
Key message
                                mitigation                  impacts on
                   it’s about                impacts on                  IWRM – the
                                   and                        water
                      water                    water                     way forward
                                adaptation                 management



          “The worst effects of climate change can
              be avoided when action starts now.”
                                                          Nicolas Stern, 2006




    Improving the way we use and manage
     our water today will make it easier to
      address the challenges of tomorrow
                                                                          mitigation                  impacts on
Impacts on water
                                                             it’s about                impacts on                       IWRM – the
                                                                             and                        water
                                                                water                    water                          way forward
                                                                          adaptation                 management


                                                                                                    Changes in surface water
                                                                                                    supply across Africa with
                                                                                                    Predicted Climate Change




Increases and decreases:
 Small changes in
 temperature will see
 average river flows and
 water availability increase
 by 10-40% in some
 regions, while in others
 there will be a decrease of
 10-30%



 Source: Maartin de Wit and Jacek Stankiewicz
 www.scienceexpress.org/2March2006/Page1/10.1126/science1119929
                                mitigation                 impacts on
The science
                   it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                   and                       water
                      water                    water                    way forward
                                adaptation                management



 Need to be able to predict:
 • Rainfall
 • Stream flows
 • Groundwater yields
 • Extreme flows and storms

              But not there yet:
              • Predictions are indicative and not
                definitive
              • Uncertainty persists about patterns
                of precipitation changes,
                streamflow, runoff
                                mitigation                 impacts on
Key message
                   it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                   and                       water
                      water                    water                    way forward
                                adaptation                management




    However, we know the following is likely:
    • Quantity – less rainfall, and more
    • Extremes – floods and droughts
    • Frequency – intensified challenges



       Changes in climate will be amplified
           in the water environment
                                  mitigation                impacts on
Impacts on WRM
                     it’s about                impacts on                IWRM – the
                                     and                       water
                        water                    water      management
                                                                         way forward
                                  adaptation




    Likely to see:

    • Reduced availability
    • Hydroelectricity affected
    • Cost of flood protection
      works and other
      infrastructure will increase
                                 mitigation                impacts on
Other concerns
                    it’s about                impacts on                IWRM – the
                                    and                       water
                       water                    water      management
                                                                        way forward
                                 adaptation




 • Water quality
 • Decreased availability will raise
   costs, increase competition,
   especially in agriculture
 • Increased flood risk will reduce
   the land available for settlement
 • Reduced drinking water supply
   due to saline intrusion in coastal
   areas
Key message
                                mitigation                impacts on
                   it’s about                impacts on                IWRM – the
                                   and                       water
                      water                    water      management
                                                                       way forward
                                adaptation




      The best approach to manage the impact of
     climate change on water is that guided by the
            philosophy and methodology of
  Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
                                 mitigation                 impacts on

IWRM the way
                    it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                    and                       water
                       water                    water                    way forward
                                 adaptation                management




     IWRM’s holistic approach:

     • Seeks to balance equity, efficiency,
       environmental sustainability
     • Identifies win-win solutions
     • Offers the best chance of coping
       with climate variability and change
IWRM the way
                                  mitigation                 impacts on
                     it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                     and                       water
                        water                    water                    way forward
                                  adaptation                management




  • Adaptation strategies will have to use both hard
    and soft measures

  • Have to go beyond what is normally considered
    “water business”

  • Have to include major changes in the way
    agriculture, industry and human settlements are
    managed
Infrastructure
                                        mitigation                 impacts on
                         it’s about                  impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                           and                       water
                            water                      water                    way forward
                                        adaptation                management




      Investments made today will need to take into
      account the new climates of the 22nd century and
      be designed for the future as well as the present:

         •   Dams              •      Wastewater disposal
         •   Canals            •      Stormwater drainage
         •   Tunnels           •      Wastewater recycling
         •   Pipelines         •      Desalination
                                 mitigation                 impacts on
Key message
                    it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                    and                       water
                       water                    water                    way forward
                                 adaptation                management




  However:


  There are no simple technical fixes
                                   mitigation                 impacts on
Soft strategies
                      it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                      and                       water
                         water                    water                    way forward
                                   adaptation                management




  • Prioritizing different water uses at times of water
    stress
  • Promoting a culture of conservation
  • Promoting water efficiency through incentives,
    pricing, trading
  • Land use planning

            As much attention should be given to
            managing demand as to increasing supply
But…
                                  mitigation                 impacts on
                     it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                     and                       water
                        water                    water                    way forward
                                  adaptation                management




 • Social impacts need to be
   managed carefully
 • Global trade system has both
   positive and negative impacts
 • Trade-offs need to be carefully
   considered
              Example: biofuel production
              could aggravate the
              challenges of water scarcity
                                             mitigation                 impacts on
Case study                      it’s about
                                   water
                                                and
                                             adaptation
                                                          impacts on
                                                            water
                                                                          water
                                                                       management
                                                                                     IWRM – the
                                                                                     way forward




Balancing adaptation and mitigation –
Kenya’s high-flying, water-wise roses
• Kenya water stressed - less than 1000 kl per person/year
• Kenyans must make most of their limited water resources
• Too little water to irrigate the 500,000 hectares of suitable land

                  The growth of horticulture and floriculture in Kenya
                  for European markets has therefore been a boon:
                  • High-value cash crop
                  • Enables Kenya to import water-intensive foods
                  • Jobs created
                  • Water-efficient
                                    mitigation                 impacts on
Case study
                       it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                       and                       water
                          water                    water                    way forward
                                    adaptation                management




             Cloud on the horizon:
             • Jet freighters blamed for aggravating climate
               change
             • Ban or tax on air-freighted fresh produce would
               hugely damage Kenya’s farm incomes
             • Do little for climate change - alternative is
               heated European greenhouses

  Example of how water efficient approach, good
  for adaptation, may conflict with mitigation –
  coherent approach needed to avoid making
  poor people poorer and more vulnerable
                                   mitigation                 impacts on
Institutions
                      it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                      and                       water
                         water                    water                    way forward
                                   adaptation                management



 Intelligent institutions to coordinate
 responses, support difficult decisions

 • Orient water managers, partners in key
   water use sectors, to potential impacts
 • Institutions to identify water use trends,
   vulnerability to climate change and
   opportunities to respond
 • Not a “once-off” project
                                 mitigation                 impacts on

Water knowledge
                    it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                    and                       water
                       water                    water                    way forward
                                 adaptation                management




  Technical responses enhanced by advanced
  water knowledge
  • Technical responses need to be guided by
    sound information on water resources
  • Need updated hydrological information and
    monitoring systems
  • Climate experts and water experts need to talk
    to each other
                                   mitigation                 impacts on
Funding               it’s about
                         water
                                      and
                                   adaptation
                                                impacts on
                                                  water
                                                                water
                                                             management
                                                                           IWRM – the
                                                                           way forward




 The challenge of “climate-proofing” the future requires
   that adequate funds are allocated today for WRM


          Funding for the actions required
          • More strategic and better prioritized
            approach to funding is required
          • Problem: current global focus is on short
            term, immediate poverty priorities, and
            bankable activities
Tools
                                 mitigation                 impacts on
                    it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                    and                       water
                       water                    water                    way forward
                                 adaptation                management




  • Charge for commercial and “luxury” domestic
    uses
  • “Polluter must pay” support for poorer countries
    affected by climate change
  • Adaptation costs to be considered in
    development finance discussions
                                  mitigation                 impacts on
The way forward      it’s about
                        water
                                     and
                                  adaptation
                                               impacts on
                                                 water
                                                               water
                                                            management
                                                                          IWRM – the
                                                                          way forward




           Global                  Regional and national
   • Need a coherent                 Ensure that the current
     approach                        IWRM planning process
   • Climate risk                    continues, including all
     management integrated           stakeholders
     into national
     development plans
                                  mitigation                 impacts on

Final word
                     it’s about                impacts on                 IWRM – the
                                     and                       water
                        water                    water                    way forward
                                  adaptation                management




  • Many climate change impacts just extreme
    examples of existing challenges
  • Countries with effective institutions and
    infrastructure for today’s climate better placed
    for tomorrow’s
  • Poor countries must develop and apply water
    wisdom to compensate for lack of resources
  • Systematic approach of IWRM has already
    proved to be a useful first step
THANK YOU


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