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Phases of Business Cycle

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									  Phases of
  Business Cycle

Presented By:
Group 8
Arpita Bahadur

Gaurav Kumar

Ranjini Ballal

Pavan Kumar

Vani Vyas

Manish Gupta

We are extremely thankful to our faculty Dr. Gervasio S.F.L. Mendes,
Alliance Business School, who guided and helped us in all possible
ways to successfully present the topic ‘Phases of Business Cycle’.

                  Table of Contents

1. Introduction                         4

2. Phases of Business Cycle             5

3. Factors shaping Business Cycle       10

4. Illustration                         14

5. Theories of Business Cycle           16

6. Measures to control Business Cycle   21

7. Conclusion                           23

8. Bibliography                         24


        The economy of a country and also the business of an organization are dynamic in
nature. It is because of this dynamic and continuous nature of economic activities that a
business goes through various phases, which form the business cycle.

        The term ‘Business Cycle’ is also used interchangeably with ‘Trade cycle’. It refers to
the fluctuations in production, employment and income of the people of a country. It is
associated with alternating periods of Prosperity and Depression. Thus a business cycle is
an alternating expansion and contraction in the overall business activity. For example, the
fluctuation seen in the measure of aggregate economic activity such as Index of Production
etc. So Business Cycle can be well defined as the upward and downward movement of
economic activity that occurs around the growth trend.

Characteristics of a Business Cycle
       Periodic, recurring in nature

A business cycle occurs periodically at fairly irregular intervals. Cyclical functions are
recurrent in nature. A business cycle may occur once in 30 to 40 years and the cycle may
vary from 7 to 10 years.

       Characterized by presence of crisis

Recession in one country affects economies of other countries as well. A downfall or
recession in one sector affects other sectors of the economy. The Great Depression in 1929 is
the example of the international character of business cycle.

       Wave-like movement

A business cycle is a sinusoidal wave with upward swings or crests and downward swings or
troughs. The upward swings are characterized by rise in prices, employment, increase in
production and income. On the other hand, fall in prices, unemployment, fall in production
and income are the features of the downward swings.

       Process is cumulative and self reinforcing

The upward and downward movements are cumulative. When the upward movement starts, it
creates further movement in the same direction and when the downward movement begins, it
persists leading to a worse depression.

       Long wave cycle

It is also known as Kondratieff cycle and has the period of 50 to 60 years.

            Major cycle

           Here the duration is 8 to 10 years. It is a long term cycle.

            Minor cycle

           It is a short duration cycle of about 2 to 3 years.

       Building cycle

They are of 15 to 20 years. The average being around 18 years, it is the double of the minor

Ideal Business Cycle looks as shown in the figure.

                                 Fig 1 : Ideal Business Cycle

But in practice the business cycle of any economy is not a perfect sinusoidal wave. For

                       Fig 2: Business Cycle of a country’s economy

                            Phases of Business Cycle

The term business cycle is referred to the recurrent ups and downs in the level of economic
activity that extend over a period of time. The business fluctuations occur in aggregate
variable such as national income, employment and price level. The variables nearly move at
the same time and in the same direction. However they vary in duration and intensity. A cycle
consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities,
followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals, which merge into the
expansion phase of the next cycle. This sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic.
The upturns and downturns in the level of economic activity are generally divided into four
phases and these are called the phases of the business cycle.

The four phases of the business cycle are:

   1. Prosperity
   2. Recession
   3. Depression
   4. Recovery

                              Fig 3: Phases of Business Cycle

Prosperity Phase:
       The top business cycle is called Prosperity, peak or boom. In the boom period the
overall business activity is rising at a more rapid rate. There is a rise in real output and
incomes of the people. The industrial activity being both speculative and non speculative,
shows remarkable expansion. The general mood of the businessmen is that of optimism and
commercial. Share markets give handsome gains to the investors. Financial institutions tend
to expand credit. In prosperity, unemployment remains low, strong consumer confidence
about the future leads to record purchases, and businesses expand to take advantage of
marketplace opportunities.

       During Prosperity there is:

               Increase in production

               Increase in Capital Investment

               Expansion of credit high prices

               Increase in profits

               New business ventures

               Rise in level of Employment

Recession Phase:
       During a recession - a cyclical economic contraction, consumers frequently postpone
major purchases and shift buying patterns toward basic, functional products carrying low
prices. Businesses mirror these changes in the marketplace by slowing production,
postponing expansion plans, reducing inventories, and often cutting the size of their
workforce. It is also known as contraction phase. A recession occurs if a contraction is severe
enough. Pessimism and hardship are widespread. If the loss of income is not too severe it is
called a recession. Sales are no longer expanding. The economy starts slowing down. As
sales stop increasing, inventories pile up. Companies can adjust to that by reducing orders for
raw materials, avoiding overtime and resorting to sales promotions. Suppliers start to feel the
pinch and are forced to lay off a few workers. Sales start to drop as consumer demand shies
away. Fewer and fewer businesses are started.                                                 .
       During Recession there is:

                    Curtailed investment

                    Employment decline

                    Decline in demand

                    Credit contraction

                    Increasing competition


Depression Phase:

       If the economic slowdown continues in a downward spiral over an extended period of
time, the economy falls into depression. A Depression is a large recession. Firms try to
survive as they can sell off the inventory on hand. More bankruptcies are observed, but the
number and the size of the bankrupt firms are bottoming out. All prices, interest rates and
wages are at their lowest. Unemployment is ubiquitous. The unemployed are ready to take
any job. The contraction has run its course. The economy has reached its trough.

       During Depression there is:

               Negative growth rate
               National income declines
               Expenditure declines
               Economic activity slows down

Recovery Phase:
       In the recovery stage, the economy emerges from recession and consumer spending
picks up steam. Even through business often continue to rely on part time and other
temporary workers during the early stages of a recovery, unemployment begins to decline, as
business activity accelerates and firms seek additional workers to meet growing production
demands. Gradually, the concerns of recession begin to disappear, and consumers start
purchasing more discretionary items such as vacations and new computer equipment. The
economy strengthens from a period of slow growth. Its pace is still slow. It is important to
note that recovery doesn't necessarily take place at a steady pace.

       During Recession there is:

              Improvement in business
              Slow rise in price
              Small rise in profit
              New investment in capital goods
              Industry, bank expand credit

                       Why do Business Cycles occur?
    Contractions and expansions are caused primarily by demand-side of the economy.
    A debate exists about whether these fluctuations can and should be reduced.
    Most economists believe that potential depressions should be offset by economic

Since the late 1940s, compared to prior years:

    Downturns and panics have generally been less severe.
    The duration of business cycles has increased.
    The average length of expansions has increased while the average length of
       contractions has decreased.
    Economists believe that business fluctuations have become less severe because of the
       stronger role of government in the economy.

                      Factors shaping Business Cycles
For centuries, economists in both the United States and Europe regarded economic downturns
as "diseases" that had to be treated; it followed, then, that economies characterized by growth
and affluence were regarded as "healthy" economies. By the end of the 19th century,
however, many economists had begun to recognize that economies were cyclical by their
very nature, and studies increasingly turned to determining which factors were primarily
responsible for shaping the direction and disposition of national, regional, and industry-
specific economies. Today, economists, corporate executives, and business owners cite
several factors as particularly important in shaping the complexion of business environments.

1. Volatility of Investment Spending
       Variations in investment spending are one of the important factors in business cycles.
Investment spending is considered the most volatile component of the aggregate or total
demand (it varies much more from year to year than the largest component of the aggregate
demand, the consumption spending), and empirical studies by economists have revealed that
the volatility of the investment component is an important factor in explaining business

cycles in the United States. According to these studies, increases in investment spur a
subsequent increase in aggregate demand, leading to economic expansion. Decreases in
investment have the opposite effect. Indeed, economists can point to several points in
American history in which the importance of investment spending was made quite evident.
The Great Depression, for instance, was caused by a collapse in investment spending in the
aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929. Similarly, prosperity of the late 1950s was
attributed to a capital goods boom.

       There are several reasons for the volatility that can often be seen in investment
spending. One generic reason is the pace at which investment accelerates in response to
upward trends in sales. This linkage, which is called the acceleration principle by economists,
can be briefly explained as follows. Suppose a firm is operating at full capacity. When sales
of its goods increase, output will have to be increased by increasing plant capacity through
further investment. As a result, changes in sales result in magnified percentage changes in
investment expenditures. This accelerates the pace of economic expansion, which generates
greater income in the economy, leading to further increases in sales. Thus, once the
expansion starts, the pace of investment spending accelerates. In more concrete terms, the
response of the investment spending is related to the rate at which sales are increasing. In
general, if an increase in sales is expanding, investment spending rises. If an increase in sales
has peaked and is beginning to slow, investment spending falls. Thus, the pace of investment
spending is influenced by changes in the rate of sales.

2. Momentum

       Economists cite a certain "follow-the-leader" mentality in consumer spending. In
situations where consumer confidence is high and people adopt more free-spending habits,
other customers are deemed to be more likely to increase their spending. Conversely,
downturns in spending tend to be imitated as well.

3. Technological Innovations

       Technological innovations can have an acute impact on business cycles. Indeed,
technological breakthroughs in communication, transportation, manufacturing, and other
operational areas can have a ripple effect throughout an industry or an economy.
Technological innovations may relate to production and use of a new product or production
of an existing product using a new process. The video imaging and personal computer

industries, for instance, have undergone immense technological innovations in recent years,
and the latter industry in particular has had a pronounced impact on the business operations
of countless organizations. However, technological innovations and consequent increases in
investment take place at irregular intervals. Fluctuating investments, due to variations in the
pace of technological innovations, lead to business fluctuations in the economy.

       There are many reasons why the pace of technological innovations varies. Major
innovations do not occur every day. Nor do they take place at a constant rate. Chance factors
greatly influence the timing of major innovations, as well as the number of innovations in a
particular year. Economists consider the variations in technological innovations as random
(with no systematic pattern). Thus, irregularity in the pace of innovations in new products or
processes becomes a source of business fluctuations.

4. Variations in Inventories

       Expansion and contraction in the level of inventories of goods kept by businesses also
contribute to business cycles. Inventories are the stocks of goods firms keep on hand to meet
the demand for their products. Usually, during a business downturn, firms let their inventories
decline. As inventories dwindle, businesses ultimately find themselves short of inventories.
As a result, they start increasing inventory levels by producing output greater than sales,
leading to an economic expansion. This expansion continues as long as the rate of increase in
sales holds up and producers continue to increase inventories at the preceding rate. However,
as the rate of increase in sales slows, firms begin to cut back on their inventory accumulation.
The subsequent reduction in inventory investment dampens the economic expansion, and
eventually causes an economic downturn. The process then repeats itself all over again. It
should be noted that while variations in inventory levels impact overall rates of economic
growth, the resulting business cycles are not really long. The business cycles generated by
fluctuations in inventories are called minor or short business cycles. These periods, which
usually last about two to four years, are sometimes also called inventory cycles.

5. Fluctuations in Government Spending

       Variations in government spending are yet another source of business fluctuations.
This may appear to be an unlikely source, as the government is widely considered to be a
stabilizing force in the economy rather than a source of economic fluctuations or instability.
Nevertheless, government spending has been a major destabilizing force on several

occasions, especially during and after wars. Government spending increased by an enormous
amount during World War II, leading to an economic expansion that continued for several
years after the war. Government spending also increased, though to a smaller extent
compared to World War II, during the Korean and Vietnam wars. These also led to economic
expansions. However, government spending not only contributes to economic expansions,
but economic contractions as well. In fact, the recession of 1953 - 54 was caused by the
reduction in government spending after the Korean War ended. The end of the Cold War
resulted in a reduction in defence spending by the United States that had a pronounced impact
on certain defence-dependent industries and geographic regions.

6. Politically generated Business Cycles

        Economists have hypothesized that business cycles are the result of the politically
motivated use of macroeconomic policies (monetary and fiscal policies) that are designed to
serve the interest of politicians running for re-election. The theory of political business cycles
is predicated on the belief that elected officials (the president, members of congress,
governors, etc.) have a tendency to engineer expansionary macroeconomic policies in order
to aid their re-election efforts.

7. Monetary Policies

        Variations in the nation's monetary policies, independent of changes induced by
political pressures, are an important influence in business cycles as well. Use of fiscal policy
to increase government spending and/or tax cuts is the most common way of boosting
aggregate demand, causing an economic expansion. Moreover, the decisions of the Federal
Reserve, which controls interest rates, can have a dramatic impact on consumer and investor
confidence as well.

8. Fluctuations in Export and Imports

        The difference between exports and imports is the net foreign demand for goods and
services, also called net exports. Because net exports are a component of the aggregate
demand in the economy, variations in exports and imports can lead to business fluctuations as
well. There are many reasons for variations in exports and imports over time. Growth in the
gross domestic product of an economy is the most important determinant of its demand for
imported goods. As people's incomes grow, their appetite for additional goods and services,

including goods produced abroad, increases. The opposite holds when foreign economies are
growing. Growth in incomes in foreign countries also leads to an increased demand for
imported goods by the residents of these countries. This, in turn, causes U.S. exports to grow.
Currency exchange rates can also have a dramatic impact on international trade and hence,
domestic business cycles as well.

                     Illustration: Mahindra & Mahindra
The graph shown in Fig 1 is an ideal curve. In reality the curve is not so consistent and can
have the phases of the cycle with different magnitudes, as in Fig 2. This concept has been
explained by taking Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. The company has been chosen for its
various sectors under one roof, example Automobiles, Tractors, ITES, Finance etc. Being a
sixty five years old company it has grown through different phases of the cycle couple of

    1954 - Technical and financial collaborations with Willys overland co-operation.

    1958 - Machine tools division.

    1962 - Mahindra Ugine Steel Company established - a joint venture with Ugine
     Kuhlmann, France.

    1963 - International Tractor Company of India established - a joint venture with
     International Harvester Company, USA.

    1983 - Mahindra and Mahindra became market leaders in tractor industry, a position
     that they have maintained till date.

    1986 - Tech Mahindra Established

    1991 - Mahindra Financial Services Limited established

    1994 - Reorganization of the groups creating six strategic business units

    2006 - Mahindra dedicated 1% PAT to CSR.

    2005 - Acquisition of Jhiangling Tractor Company in China.

    2007 - Acquisition of Punjab Tractors Limited.

               As mentioned in the previous slide prosperity phase consists of Increase in
    Production, new business ventures, Increase in capital etc. Hence these points justify the
    prosperity phase of Mahindra.

    1975 - Oil crisis, production down to 2000 tractors.

    1992 - Liberalization of Industrial Policies.

    2002 - Market saturation.

    2005 - Surge in fuel price and high interest rate.

    Prestige Loan issues.

All these factors lead to decline in demand, high competition, employment problems and
credit contraction.

    2001 to 2003 - Volumes dropped severely from 80,000 tractors to 39,000 tractors per

    2005 - Automobile sales dipped to 1.71%

    2007 - Tractor sales falls by 8%

These factors lead to the worst phase of Mahindra affecting its profits, market share having
negative growth and total slow down in its economic activities.

    2000 - Business process reengineering concept (BPR). Here Mahindra worked on
     their process of conducting business activities and made several changes and
     introduced new concepts like Kaizen and Just in Time (JIT) to improve their

    2002 - Strategies to increase MS in South and overseas.

    2004 - Slight rise in sales due to improvement measures taken by Mahindra.

This phase saw Mahindra improve slowly and recover from depression. There was a slight
increase in its profits and funds started flowing in gradually.

                          Theories of Business Cycles


                      Non monetary                                  Monetary

                                                                          Pure monetary

                                                                          Monetary over
                Under                                                   investment theory
           consumption or
          over saving theory                                               Kynes theory

          Innovation theory                   - Hicks theory                 Multiplier
                                              - Samulsons                    accelerator
                                               of Business Cycle
                               Fig 3: Theoriesmodel                      interaction theory

Non Monetary Theories

1. Psychological Theory

Business fluctuations are the result of waves of optimism and pessimism among businessman
and industrialist. At times big industrialist felt optimism about prospect of business and pass
their optimism by other in this way entire business community become optimist. They make
new investment and it leads to emergence of boom condition and other time businessman
become pessimist and pass their pessimism to other and entire business community become
pessimist mind it. The boom and slumps are due to alternating waves of optimism and
pessimism on the part of business.


It does not furnish comprehensive explanation of business cycle and does not explain the
causes for these alternating waves of optimism and pessimism. The psychological factors are
not the originating factors of business cycles.

2. under consumption or Over saving Theory

The cause of depression is the inequality of income that prevails in a capitalistic economy.
The upper income group have too much wealth so they save and invest in business. The low
income group do not have adequate purchasing power to buy goods resulting in over
production, fall in prices and depression. Thus too much saving and too little consumption is
the cause of business depression.


It is the prospects of profit not the mere existence of savings, which govern investment in a
capitalist economy. Also the theory explains only the onset of depression not the advent of
boom. Thus, it is not a full fledge theory of business cycle.

3. Innovation theory

This theory explains innovations in business as a main course of increase in investment in
business fluctuation; innovation may mean any of the following:

1) Introduction of mechanical innovation

2) Introduction of technique of production

3) Development of new market for existing production

4) Development of sources of raw material

5) Introduction of new method of management.

According to Schumpeter whenever an innovation takes places this causes disequilibrium in
the existing economic system. This disequilibrium continues till there is readjustment at some
new equilibrium position. The illustrate the upswing we assume that the economy is in the
state of full employment of some innovation takes place, the production cost of existing
industry will increase, the establishment of new industry will be financed to expansion of
bank credit. The results will be sharp increase in prices of product.

       When other firms immediate the innovations and acquire additional fund from the
bank, an inflation force sets in an economy beyond a certain level increase in output causing

fall in prices and profitability. Further innovations do not come by quickly. It leads to
contract in money supply. Hence prices fall. The process of recession begins and continues
until equilibrium is again restored.


1) The basic assumption of the theory is unrealistic. Firstly, it assumes full employment in an
economy. Normally there is loss the full employment in capital economy.

2) Schumpeter aptitude to business cycle innovation only business cycle being a complex to
single factor only.

3) The theory assumes that every innovation in business is finance through expansion of bank
credit. Actually these are financed by drawing upon development resources especially get for
the purpose.

Monetary Theories

1. Pure Monetary Theory – Hautrey

        According to this theory, the main cause of business fluctuation is unstable monetary
and credit system. The fluctuation in the supply of money and bank credit is the basic factor
which causes cyclical process. The fluctuation of the process begins with the expansion of
bank credit and continues as long as credit expands. Till this process continues, the general
level of price rises because beyond a limit, demand rises at the rate higher than the rate of
increase in supply. Credit expansion accelerates the process of economic expansion and rise
in prices.

        The prosperity brought about by banking credit mechanism is reversed when banks
restrain their credit expansion because their cash reserves stand depleted due to increase in
loans and advances reduce inflow of deposits and withdrawal of deposits. As credit expansion
comes to an end the process of expansion is sloped down and demarks the beginning of


   1) Besides monetary factors, economic activity has also fluctuated because of changes in
       non monetary factors.

   2) Monetary factors do not fully explain the turning point of business cycle.

   3) Besides interest rate, other important factor in business decision is the marginal
       efficiency of capital.

2. Monetary Over Investment Theory – Hayek

       This theory emphasizes the role of imbalance between desired and actual investment
in economic fluctuation. For economy to remain in equilibrium, it is necessary that voluntary
savings are equal to actual investment. The equilibrium of the economy would be upset by
changes in money supply and saving investment relation.

       If new investments are financed through increased bank credit, there will be over
investment mainly in capital good industry. There may be expansion of investment without
contraction in consumption. The existing rate of interest cannot be maintained because it has
gone out of balance with consumer demand. As consumer demand increases, profitability in
consumer goods industry become higher than that of the capital goods industry and it shifts
investment from the latter to the former. As a result, demand for bank credit increases in
consumer goods industry. But due to bankers’ unwillingness and inability to meet credit
demand, a financial crisis develops leading to downswing in business activities.


1) This theory fails to take in account the non monetary factors.

2) It stresses upon the changes in interest rates as the main determinant of investment and
ignores other factors.

3) It lays emphasis on imbalance between investment in capital goods and consumer goods
but in modern economy such imbalances are self corrected.

3. Kynes Theory of Marginal Efficiency of Capital

       According to Kynes, the operation of business cycle is due to the fluctuation in
volume of investment. These fluctuations are due to fluctuations in marginal efficiency of
capital (MEC). Thus fluctuations in prospective returns determine MEC. An improvement in
MEC leads to increased investment, creates more employment output and income in the
economy and starts the period of prosperity. On the other hand, a decline in MEC through
decreased investment leads to unemployment and fall in income and output; which initiates
the period of depression.

       The real contribution of Kynes theory lies in explanation of the lower and upper
turning points of business cycle. The upper turning point or downturn MPC (Marginal
Propensity to Consume) being less than marginal consumption is less than savings increase
and led to less demand for goods and hence less production and increase in employment
level. The lower turning point is explained when income and consumption levels are low but
consumption does not fall in same proportion. Therefore increase in demand leads to increase
in production and rise in employment level.


Kynes advocacy of low interest rate as a remedy to economic crisis is subject to criticism.

          Keys to successful Business Cycle Management
Small business owners can take several steps to help ensure that their business runs with a
minimum of uncertainty and damage. "The concept of cycle management may be relatively
new," wrote Matthew Gallagher in Chemical Marketing Reporter, "but it already has many
adherents who agree that strategies that work at the bottom of a cycle need to be adopted as
much as ones that work at the top of a cycle. While there will be no definitive formula for
every company, the approaches generally stress a long-term view which focuses on a firm's
key strengths and encourages it to plan with greater discretion at all times. Essentially,
businesses are operating towards operating on a more even keel."

Some measures can be taken to control the business cycle. Measures can be divided into two
parts namely:

    Preventive measures
    Relief measures

Preventive measures
Preventive measures are those measures which are adopted during the phase of prosperity for
the purpose of regulating business and to avoid unwise experience in the future.

Preventive measures can be further classified into various categories

    Conservation of assets
Conservation of assets can be done by three ways
       1. Maximum utilization
       2. Minimum wastage
       3. Proper allocation of resources

    Avoid increasing overhead cost
Businessmen should try to minimize their cost because this will decrease profit of business
and this man become cause of depression.

    Avoid excessive inventories

In this phase, businessmen should anticipate the amount of goods that is to be produced i.e.
how much quantity to be produced as there may be possibility of cancellation of orders.

    Attention to customers
   Attention to customer means providing better facility to customer. Businessmen should
   try to win the confidence of customer so that the customer can become loyal towards the

Relief measures
Relief measures are those measures which are formulated to help in the recovery of business
during the period of contraction.

Relief measure can also be further divided into various parts

    Reduction in manufacturing cost
   Businessmen should always try to reduce production cost because it will help business in
   increasing the profit and that profit can be further invested into production activities.

    Improving the quality of product
   By improving the quality of products demand can be enhanced that will subsequently
   increase the sales of business and it will help the firm in recovering from depression.

    Development of plant, labour and organisation to make it flexible
   Development of infrastructure will definitely attract more investors and that will result in
   more production.

    Long term planning
   The firm should give importance and plan for its future developments. The firm should
   also adopt cyclical pricing policy so that it can overcome the problem faced during
   cyclical fluctuation.


A business cycle is a tool to understand the dynamism of a business and the economy as a
whole. The business cycle explained herein is an ideal business cycle. But it is usually
witnessed that an economy / business see the various phases in irregularity and a downward
turn of recession may itself see some ups and downs before it really hits a low, depression.

The example taken up to explain the business cycle is of a major player in the automobile
market and has been so for the past sixty years and hence its business has seen all the up and
down turns in the cycle. What has been done here is that all the dispersed ups have been
grouped in one part as recovery and prosperity and the downs as recession and depression, for
the simplicity of understanding of the functioning of businesses and the strategies they
implement in such situations.

Through this discussion the various phases of the business have been explained in detail, to
enlist them for recap: Recovery, Prosperity, Recession and Depression. The various theories
dedicated to understanding and building up the concept and formulation of a business cycle
have also been discussed, with emphasis on the major contributors.

In short the report talks about all the various aspects of a business cycle and after
enumerating them, it can be safely concluded that to understand how economic activities
shape a business and therefore the functioning of the business, the business cycle is the apt
method of study.


1. Burns, A. and Mitchell, W.C. (1946): Measuring Business Cycles, New York: National

Bureau of Economic Research

2. Chitre, V.S. (1986): Indicators of Business Recessions and Revivals in India.

3. Mall, O.P. (1999): Composite Index of Leading Indicators for Business Cycles in India,

RBI Occasional Paper, Vol. 20, No.3 (Winter 1999)

4. Moore, Geoffrey H (1980): ‘What is Recession?’ in Business Cycles, Inflation and

Forecasting, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., 13-19; or, Robert E.Hall, ‘The

Business Cycle Dating Process,’ NBER Reporter, Winter 1991/92, 1-3.

5. Moore G.H. (1980): Business Cycles, Inflation and Forecasting, NBER Studies in Business
Cycles No. 24, Cambridge, Mass, Ballinger Publishing Company


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