MLB Pre-Season Picks By: Kyle Pucciarello When most people think March Madness, they naturally think of the NCAA Tournament (which has been fantastic thus far). However, for me, “march madness” also means the tease that is baseball’s month-long spring training. For an entire month the scent of baseball is in the air, including spring training games on TV including players wearing numbers in the high 80s. The veteran players are relaxed and the younger invites are fighting for a roster spot. But with starters coming out after the first few innings, the games lack the excitement of the regular season. Another way to know it’s spring training: A-Rod is hitting the cover off the ball. Well, March has come and gone, and the 2007 Major League Baseball season is just one day away. Thus, I thought it only fitting to make some predictions about the season ahead. American League East: This year’s AL East is far stronger than it has been in past years. While Tampa Bay is probably still slated for the cellar, they have a lot of young talent (Carl Crawford, Scott Kazmir, B.J. Upton) and may wind up being one of those teams that makes a run at .500. Toronto, which showed a lot of promise last year with a strong 2nd place finish, will continue to play well with Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay at the top of the rotation, B.J. Ryan closing games, and MVP candidate Vernon Wells in the middle of the order. Look for Frank Thomas’ numbers to take a hit. As always, however, the top two spots in the AL East will be fought between the Yankees and the Red Sox. Both teams took steps to improve their pitching, with Boston acquiring Matsuzaka at the top of its rotation, and deciding to keep Papelbon in the closing role. The Yankees picked up Kei Igawa to round out the rotation, Luis Vizcaino to bolster a shaky bullpen, overpaid Andy Pettitte (who should have a serviceable year), and, perhaps most importantly, finally got rid of Randy Johnson. And, of course, there’s Chien-Mien Wang for the Yankees. He’ll start the season out on the DL but, let’s be honest, there’ll be enough Wang for everyone throughout the season. An actual conversation I had with a friend of mine about the Yankee starter still being available in a fantasy draft: “You know, Wang is still out there, just waving in the breeze.” - Oh yeah? “Normally I don’t like Wang, but this is tempting. That’s a big one out there in front of me.” - Is it now? “It’d be hard not to take it.” - You don’t want to leave Wang out there too long though.
“(laughs)” - Because then someone’s going to see your Wang, and before you know it, your Wang is in someone else’s hands. Thank you. I’ll be here all week. In terms of offense, the Yankees have an edge. Jorge Posada had a strong year last year and certainly has at least one more left in him, while Jason Varitek has begun to fade (his troubles have continued throughout spring training). While perhaps no 3-4 tandem is better than Boston’s David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, the Yankees have the more complete lineup. When Robinson Cano, mature with the bat but still years away from his prime, is hitting 8th, you know you’re in good shape. AL East Pick: New York Yankees
Central: The AL Central is quickly becoming one of most competitive in all of baseball – except for, y’know, the Royals. The White Sox are just two years removed from winning the World Series, but this year, will finish no higher than fourth in the Central. The top three spots are going to (in order): Cleveland, Detroit, and the Twins. Minnesota features the best pitcher in the game (some guy named Santana) and an elite closer in Joe Nathan. The problem is, the timetable on Francisco Liriano is uncertain (as is his effectiveness) and, other than the young right-hander Boof Bonser, there isn’t much to admire in the Twins’ starting rotation. Joe Mauer, the 2006 AL Batting Champion, and Justin Morneau (last year’s MVP) are going to put up big numbers again – that’s the understatement of the century. However, they just aren’t going to be enough to lift this team past the rest of the Central. While cameramen across the country rejoice, the Tigers should be worried that they’ll be without Kenny Rogers until most-likely the middle of the season. However, the rest of the pitching staff is more than capable: starters Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander will pick up the slack in the rotation and no one can touch reliever Joel Zumaya. Question marks in the pen include the aging Todd Jones and the 41-year-old Joe Table (aka Jose Mesa). Gary Sheffield will have a big year coming off an injury-riddled season, a postseason where he was nonexistent, and more potshots at Joe Torre than he had homeruns last year (yes, I’m a Yankee fan). Outfielders Craig Monroe and Marcus Thames have a lot of power, but also contribute a lot of strikeouts – as does leadoff man Curtis Granderson (174 K’s in 2006). But Cleveland is the team to watch in the Central. Hopefully the injury to C.C. Sabathia won’t be much of a setback because the problem with this club is the starting pitching. There are a lot of number four-type guys in this rotation, and that’s a problem when your Ace would be a number two on just about any other staff.
The key to the Indians is their lineup. Victor Martinez is about as good a hitting catcher as you’re going to see in the Major Leagues today, and no one needs to make a case for Travis Hafner (one of the scariest hitters in the league). This team is full of good, young infielders: Andy Marte, Josh Barfield, Jhonny Peralta, and Ryan Garko. And, let’s not forget Grady Sizemore in the outfield, who will probably nab more women this year than he will home runs (and he’s going to hit 35). AL Central Pick: Cleveland Indians West: There’s really only two reasons to watch the Mariners: Ichiro and King Felix Hernandez (if he realizes his potential this year). Sure there’s some guys on this team with talent like Yuniesky Betancourt, Richie Sexson, Kenji Johjima, and the always dangerous Raul Ibanez, but this team is destined to be left out in the rain (pun intended – I know, I’m hilarious). The other contender battling it out for the cellar in the West is the Texas Rangers. The pitching is still a big problem (although it’s getting better, that is, if we ever see Eric Gagne pitch again). But Texas will win its share of games largely because they’ve got a ton of guys who can hit: perennial Batting Crown contender Michael Young, Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock, Frank Catalanotto, and young 2B Ian Kinsler. Oakland is going to be tough this year, despite losing the rejuvenated bat of Frank Thomas and the $126 million arm of Barry Zito. As always, good, young starting pitching is their strength. Rich Harden takes over the reigns of the rotation, with Esteban Loaiza, Dan Haren (who could use a shave), Joe Kennedy and Joe Blanton rounding it out. None of those guys are going to dominate like the days of Zito, Hudson and Mulder, but they’re going to keep you in games. And with the impression Huston Street in the closing role, not too many games are going to slip away. The lineup, as stated earlier, lacks the pop of Thomas’ bat from last year but is still serviceable. Expect a surprisingly strong year out of Mike Piazza. The Angels, however, are the team to beat this year. The pitching is far superior to any other team in the American League, with John Lackey at the top and Francisco Rodriguez one of the premiere closers in the game. Unfortunately for the Halos, their staff is full of injuries. Last year’s phenom Jered Weaver is on the DL, and both Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar will be on the bench when the season starts. 2005’s AL Cy Young Jabba the Hut is also on the pine. However, when these guys come back healthy, no other staff can touch them. The bats, while not collectively phenomenal, should be enough to take this team to the playoffs. Vladimir Guerrero is still one of the best bets in baseball, and Garrett Anderson, while injury prone, is still one of the hardest working hitters out there. Chone Figgins is a phenomenal guy to have on a club – he can play just about anywhere, gets on base, and is lightning fast. He could, however, cut down on the K’s and bulk up his
walks. Juan Rivera had a nice year last year and should put up comparable numbers this season as well. Unfortunately for the Angels, they severely overpaid Gary Matthews Jr. You’ll never see the type of numbers he put up last year again, and let’s not forget he’ll be 33 by the middle of the season – his best days (and there weren’t many) are behind him. AL West Pick: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim from California by way of United States
AL Wild-Card Pick: Detroit Tigers
AL Individual Awards MVP: Travis Hafner (2nd: Alex Rodriguez) Cy Young: Johan Santana (2nd: Roy Halladay) Rookie of the Year: Alex Gordon (2nd: Dice K) Comeback Player of the Year: Gary Sheffield
National League East: Last year saw the Atlanta Braves reign of supremacy over the NL East finally come to an end, with the New York Mets being “who we thought they were” and playing phenomenally enough to get trounced by the St. Louis Cardinals in the playoffs. While Atlanta is going to have a stronger year this year, the NL East really comes down to two teams: the Phillies and the Mets. What? There are two other teams in the NL East? Really? I don’t believe it. Nothing about the Phillies is particularly frightening. While the staff has some upside like the ageless Jamie Moyer and a youth-movement including Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson (if he can be turned around) and Brent Myers (if he doesn’t wind up in jail), its got plenty of holes. And let’s not forget: Tom Gordon will be 40-years-old this year and hasn’t closed in a big spot since his days in Boston. What you like about the Phillies, other than their loving, relaxed fanbase, is their promising young bats. Ryan Howard, only 27-years-old, had an absolutely fantastic season last year en route to his first MVP award and the Phillies’ playoff run…what? He didn’t show up in the final weeks of September and the Phillies lost out on the playoffs? Oh. Chase Utley is one of the great young players in the game today and Jimmy Rollins is entering the prime of his career. So yes, the Phillies had a very good one-through-four in their order. But after that? Not so much.
It’s the Mets year again in the NL East, if not the entire National League. After Glavine, who continues to put up solid numbers, the rotation isn’t exactly what one would call elite (El Duque, John Maine, and Oliver Perez). However, their fifth starter, the young Mike Pelfrey, is going to do big things – if not this year, then real soon. The Mets will get Pedro back hopefully by the All-Star break, and if he can pitch at even 75% of his former self, the Metropolitans should be fine. As for the lineup it almost feels superfluous to talk about the Mets. Jose Reyes is the most exciting player in baseball and is going to be a perennial runner for MVP. You might as well say the same thing about David Wright. And, what the hell, Carlos Beltran too. Carlos Delgado is on the downswing of his career but he’s still going to put up big power numbers, even if his average slips. But the Mets right now are known for their growth of great young players. Forget Reyes and Wright, look at these other spring chickens on the club: Jose Valentin, Moises Alou, Tom Glavine, Orlando “I Can’t Find My Birth Certificate” Hernandez, and the baby faced Julio Franco. Look for these guys to be around for many years to come. NL East Pick: New York Mets (and AARP) Central: We’ll start off by apologizing to the city of Pittsburgh: this won’t be your year. Again. Good luck to your Steelers and Mike Tomlin. And unless Roger Clemens makes a decision before his 50th birthday, Houston fans will only have two things to appreciate this season: Craig Biggio’s 3,000th hit and Roy Oswalt. Then there’s the Cubs. Since Harry Caray’s death almost ten years ago, this team has been relevant only twice: 1998 and 2003. It’s not going to get much better this year. Carlos Zambrano is really the only guy you can get excited about in the rotation, with a bunch of pricey, slightly-above-average pitchers rounding it out. Ryan Dempster is not an elite closer in even the loosest sense of the term. And Mark Prior and Kerry Wood continue their tenure with the DL. The Central gets serious with the next three teams. St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati are going to be in a dogfight for the top spot in the Central (and they have to win a playoff berth here – their records won’t be good enough for a Wild Card spot). The defending champion Cardinals, after Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter, have a starting rotation that includes Braden Looper. Do I need to say anything else? If the Cardinals do much of anything it is going to be on the very large shoulders of Albert Pujols. He’s very good. Scott Rolen is entering the backside of his career, though he’s still got some solid seasons ahead. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of Jim Edmonds. While he still makes some fantastic plays in center, his tenure is just about up. It’s been a good ride Jim!
But I truly believe the Central comes down to Milwaukee and Cincinnati. Milwaukee has a great youth movement with already proven guys like Derrick Turnbow, Prince Fielder, Ricky Weeks, as well as guys coming up like Tony Gwynn, Corey Hart, and Carlos Villanueva. The problem with the Brewers is that they’re probably one year, and one sausage, away. Cincinnati has enough pitching to stay atop the division, and enough bats in the lineup to outhit teams like the Cubs and, when healthy, the Cardinals. Hopefully they’ll get a full year out of Ken Griffey (no longer Jr.) this year – both ends of that deal deserve it. NL Central Pick: Cincinnati Reds
West: The Colorado Rockies, team slogan: GenRation, will be one of the better last place teams this year. This is just a very uneven team, with promising young talent (guys like Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, Willy Taveras, and Jeff Baker) mixed among aging veterans (Todd Helton and Steve Finley). One thing to look forward to will be Kaz Matsui’s run at the MVP. Seriously. No? Not biting? Alright, how about his run at a .200 batting average? As for the Giants, Barry Zito is going to have a very big year, and not just on the mound. He just signed a contract for $126 million – believe me when I tell you he’s going to have a very big year. Expect the other Barry, Bonds that is, to break Hank Aaron’s record. Look for Bonds’ head size to grow to an unprecedented 9’ ¼” as well. There’s a lot to like for the defending NL West champion Padres this season. The pitching staff features two Hall of Famers (Greg Maddux and Trevor Hoffman) who still have a lot to offer a club, as well as phenom Jake Peavy. Reliever Cla Meredith (runner up to Yuniesky Betancourt for strangest first name in the league) showed a lot of promise in his 50 innings pitched last season. On the offensive side, the Giles’ brothers continue to put up good numbers, and youngsters Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene, and rookie Kevin Kouzmanhoff have a lot to offer. The story this year will be the Arizona Diamondbacks. A 1-2 starting tandem of Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson (who is back in the NL, as well as the heat, where he is comfortable) are going to be very tough to beat. A lot of the stories around this team have pointed out the youth movement, and the DBacks (along with new uniforms) are very high on outfielder Chris Young and SS Stephen Drew. Throw Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy into the mix and this is a pretty solid club. However, they’re not strong enough to beat the Dodgers. Los Angeles strengthened its rotation this off-season by signing Jason Schmidt. While he probably won’t approach his 2005 season, this guy still has a lot to offer. But the Dodgers don’t have any guys that are going to overpower you, and especially for a guy like Derek Lowe, the defense is going to have to be tight.
L.A.’s lineup is well rounded, and despite constant attacks of not having enough offense, the Dodgers will do fine against their competition in the West. Rafael Furcal is still one of the best leadoff hitters in the game, and Wilson Betemit is only going to get better. If Nomar stays healthy, he will have another nice year, and Jeff Kent continues to produce. The outfield is a little shakier, with veterans like Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, Marlon Anderson, and Brady Clark patrolling. A flash of youth in Matt Kemp may prove to be a player Dodgers’ fans look forward to watching in the coming years. NL West Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild-Card Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Individual Awards MVP: Jose Reyes (2nd: Albert Pujols) Cy Young: Brandon Webb (2nd: Chris Carpenter) Rookie of the Year: Stephen Drew (2nd: Mike Pelfrey) Comeback Player of the Year: Randy Johnson So that’s it, those are the picks for the season. We’ll tackle World Series predictions at the All-Star break. As for now, let’s sit back and enjoy the season ahead. Play ball!