A BLUE WAVE OF CHANGE DEMOCRATS SWEEP THE NATION ON ELECTION DAY by trendy3

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November 5, 2008 – 11:30 a.m.

A BLUE WAVE OF CHANGE: DEMOCRATS SWEEP THE NATION ON ELECTION DAY
es We Can” has now made the transition from slogan to statement of fact, as Barack Obama of Illinois will become the first African-American elected President. With sweeping gains throughout the Eastern Seaboard, new inroads in the Southwest and Mountain states, and a turnout operation of unparalleled effectiveness, the Obama campaign left nothing to chance on election day. Before more than 250,000 supporters in Grant Park, Senator Barack Obama broke through the longest-standing political barrier in American history. The new face of American politics has been etched in history. On the world stage, Obama’s election has already been met with enthusiasm and calls for renewed engagement with the start of a new Administration.

“Y

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After more than 20 months, and the most expensive campaign in history, America has elected to send a sitting Member of Congress to the Oval Office for the first time since President John Kennedy in 1960. A generational shift has occurred in American politics, as for the first time in two decades, neither a Bush nor Clinton will serve as President. For the first time in more than 50 years, the federal body politic will be without a Bush or a Dole in elected office. The 2008 electoral map is dramatically different, with Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado swinging towards Obama and providing a substantial margin of victory.
2008 GENERAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTES
WA 11 OR 7 MT 3 ID 4 WY 3 NV 5 CA 55 ND 3 SD 3 NE 5 UT 5 CO 9 KS 6 OK 7 IA 7 IL 21 MO 11 TN 11 AL 9 GA 15 IN 11 KY 8 NH ME VT 4 4 3 MN 10 WI 10 MI 17 OH 20 WV 5 PA 21 VA 13 NC 15 SC 8 NY 31

MA - 12 RI - 4 CT - 8 NJ - 15 DE - 3 MD - 10 DC - 3

AZ 10

NM 5

AR 6 MS 6

TX 34 AK 3

LA 9

FL 27

HI 4

BLUE STATES - 349 RED STATES - 163 UNDECIDED - 26

This update has been prepared within fourteen hours of the last polls closing in the 2008 election contests, and in advance of recounts, judicial challenges, and runoff elections. We have proceeded in distributing this report in order to timely communicate important results. However, we have necessarily relied on data that may be incomplete.

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Republicans were pushed into regional strongholds, as Obama secured victories in virtually every geography across the country. Despite strong turnout and advantages in new voter registration, victories in the South remained elusive. Still outstanding even this morning are the outcomes in North Carolina and Missouri, which could complete the most sweeping electoral victory in more than a decade. The state of the economy, combined with a turnout operation that far surpassed Republican efforts this election, delivered not only the White House, but increased House and Senate majorities for Democrats in 2009. Young Americans turned out in record numbers in key swing states, posting a more than five percent increase in turnout in a number of states. Voter demographics underwent a seismic shift since 2004, with Hispanics, young voters, African-American and White voters swinging to Obama in record numbers. This new coalition will place high demands on the new President, in addition to the traditional tensions and expectations of the Democratic party.

2008 GENERAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTES
WA 11 OR 7 MT 3 ID 4 WY 3 NV 5 CA 55 ND 3 SD 3 NE 5 UT 5 CO 9 KS 6 OK 7 IA 7 IL 21 MO 11 TN 11 AL 9 GA 15 IN 11 KY 8 NH ME VT 4 4 3 MN 10 WI 10 MI 17 OH 20 WV 5 PA 21 VA 13 NC 15 SC 8 NY 31

MA - 12 RI - 4 CT - 8 NJ - 15 DE - 3 MD - 10 DC - 3

AZ 10

NM 5

AR 6 MS 6

TX 34 AK 3

LA 9

FL 27

HI 4

BLUE STATES - 349 RED STATES - 163 UNDECIDED - 26

2004 GENERAL ELECTION ELECTORAL VOTES
WA 11 OR 7 MT 3 ID 4 WY 3 NV 4 CA 54 ND 3 SD 3 NE 5 UT 5 CO 8 KS 6 OK 8 IA 7 IL 22 MO 11 TN 11 AL 9 GA 13 IN 12 KY 8 NH ME VT 4 4 3 MN 10 WI 11 MI 18 OH 21 WV 5 PA 23 VA 13 NC 14 SC 8 NY 33 MA - 12 RI - 4 CT - 8 NJ - 15 DE - 3 MD - 10 DC - 3

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AZ 8

NM 5

AR 6 MS 7

TX 32 AK 3

LA 9

FL 25

In his address last evening, Obama began the process of charting a new course, calling for a renewed American commitment to patriotism, service, and sacrifice, even as he candidly recognized the challenges ahead. Pledging to be a President to all Americans and calling upon the spirit of Lincoln to heal the partisan divide, Obama stressed the immediate need to address global engagement, stimulate economic growth and innovation, and take action on climate issues and health care. An immediate need to transition key positions at Treasury, Defense, and the State Department, and begin the process of setting a new agenda with a Democratic majority in Congress, are just some of the critical first steps for Obama and his transition team.
HI 4

RED STATES - 286 BLUE STATES - 252

The impact on the judicial selection process will be pronounced. With unified government and a strong Senate majority, Obama could reshape the courts in a significant way, particularly at the District and Circuit Court level. Speculation abounds regarding the retirement of stalwart liberal Supreme Court Justices John Paul Stevens, David H. Souter, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, any of which would allow Obama to shape the court in much the same way as President Bush in the past two years.

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The impact of the dramatic increase in voter registration and Democratic turnout, combined with the coattails of a prevailing Presidential candidate resulted in a rout of the Republican party in races across the country. Democrats are now poised to unite Government at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue for the first time in over a decade. As a party, Democrats successfully proved that they had learned the lessons of 2000, and demonstrated their ability to inspire an American self-renewal in ways not seen in generations. With solidified majorities, the coming Congress must demonstrate the ability to govern.

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ELECTION RESULTS
252 172 11 DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED

SENATE

ELECTION RESULTS
54 40 2 4 DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS UNDECIDED

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Passive regulatory policy will almost assuredly be a thing of the past as well. The lessons of the recent financial crisis, and the visceral American outrage at the need for unprecedented federal intervention, will drive the Obama Administration to engage more deeply in the oversight of business and the financial markets than at any time in 70 years. Antitrust policy, telecommunications regulations, health-care reform, and climate issues are all central to Obama’s policy agenda, and his cabinet selections are likely to drive the engine of government towards far greater involvement in the business and social fabric of the country. The “innovation agenda” of green jobs, infrastructure development, and economic growth will be an immediate priority for the incoming Administration, creating the potential for a cornucopia of federal initiatives not seen since Roosevelt or Johnson. The tension between delivering on the promise of change and the realities of a faltering economy and dramatic budget deficit will be extraordinary. The last three months of the Bush Administration will also be shaped by last night’s results. The prospects of a lame-duck session that features the president- and vice-President elect, as well as the Republican candidate for President creates a dynamic not seen in more than 40 years. Anticipating wider majorities and a unified government in 2009, the scope of the lame duck, and the willingness of the current White House to negotiate compromise on key issues such as a stimulus package and Colombia Free Trade Agreement is a wide open question. Emboldened Democrats may well seek to take advantage of electoral victories to begin work on the new agenda, and eliminate any carryover issues to provide a clear path for the Obama Administration. As President Bush prepares to turn over the house keys after eight years in Washington, more than 50 major regulations on lawsuit limits for product liability, the Clean Air Act, Endangered Species Act, and fossil-fuel production remain under consideration before the clock strikes midnight on the Administration. Presidential pardons and final negotiations with the current Congress will dominate the final months of the Bush Presidency. In reality, all eyes will be on the transition, even as the incoming Administration and Democratic Leaders in Congress seek to prevent unexpected regulatory victories in the waning days of the Bush era. Election Insight 2008 profiles the key races, themes, and ballot measures that shaped yesterday’s elections, and outlines the trends, personalities, and priorities that will shape policy in Washington and around the states in 2009.

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THE ROAD AHEAD — OUTLINING THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt took office facing an economic crisis of unprecedented intensity, but having won the confidence of an electorate in need of measured stewardship. Seventy-five years later, the parallels are stark. President-elect Obama assumes office in the midst of a still unfolding recession, with U.S. combat troops deployed in active combat on two fronts, American dissatisfaction at an all-time high, and American confidence nearing the opposite extreme. Rather than a mandate for party ideology, the nation voted for a change to the status quo, with exit polling consistently identifying the theme of “change” as a central factor driving voters. Charting a course for the next four years, and more importantly beginning the process of transition, is the immediate task. The President-elect demonstrated an innate ability to inspire along the campaign trail, and will now seek to translate the tremendous surge in turnout and voter engagement to the task of governing. With an immediate need to engage on the economy and foreign policy, and to chart an agenda, focus will immediately turn to the makeup of the Obama Administration and his Cabinet selections. The challenge of governing, uniting, and charting a course for the policies of America will be immediate and profound.

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CABINET AND TRANSITION
President-elect Obama is expected to move expeditiously and with the precision honed through the campaign in selecting Cabinet nominees and senior White House staff. With Democrats wandering the White House wilderness for eight years, there is a deep bench of potential Cabinet appointees. Further complicating factors include how close allies of the Clintons will be included in the Administration and how President-elect Obama's shorter than normal political resume and priority on “outsiders” may factor in his decision making. The new administration will need to fill nearly 8,000 political appointments, 1,200 of which require Senate confirmation — a daunting task. As transitions go, there are two primary models. First, there is the efficient (in transition terms) model used in 1980 by President-elect Ronald Reagan who sequestered a group of trusted advisors in a cabin in West Virginia, where they were charged with filling the some 9,000 political jobs in the Administration and setting up the White House staff. This planning created a rapid start in operating the government, and afforded the Administration considerable strength in advancing an agenda. The other model has been followed by virtually every other Presidential transition — organized chaos. Democratic transitions have traditionally involved more complications, given the large number of interest groups in the Democrat party. President-elect Obama’s early choices will receive intense scrutiny from both sides of the aisle, as both new and veteran

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Members of Congress seek to gain leverage for their priority agenda items through the confirmation process. While a shadow transition effort has been underway for some weeks, a crystallizing force behind the effort, now that it becomes reality, will be the new White House Chief of Staff. It is widely expected that Representative Rahm Emanuel (D-IL), a close Obama ally, passionate policy and political architect, and seasoned veteran of the last Democratic Administration, will be tapped for the key post. In addition, given the financial crisis, the accelerated selection of a Treasury Secretary — arguably now the most powerful Cabinet position for the moment in light of new statutory authorities — that can credibly and quickly assume office will be of paramount importance. Key insights to watch for in the coming weeks and months on cabinet selections and transition:
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Hillary Factor: How will former supporters Senator Clinton be brought, or not brought, into an Obama Administration? Illinois Connection: Both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had extensive networks from the home states as a result of being governors. When it came time to fill the cabinet and White House, they looked to these networks. Will President-elect Obama’s Administration include a large number of Chicagoans and Illinois natives, and how extensive an “outsider” network will join the new Administration? Congress: With wide majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, will Presidentelect Obama turn to Senate colleagues from states with Democratic governors to fill key posts? Bipartisanship: Candidate Obama previewed that his Cabinet would be built inclusive of Republicans. How will that be implemented?

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Although at the end of the day purely speculative, there are a number of potential candidates for key positions in the Administration that have been mentioned more frequently than others. The following may offer some early insights into key appointments — or it may prove to be just another list:
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Agriculture: Tom Buis, National Farm Union President; Charles Stenholm, former Ranking Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee; Marshall Matz, Obama campaign advisor; Jim Leach (R-IA), former Congressman; Tom Vilsack, former Iowa Governor Attorney General: Eric Holder, Obama advisor and former Deputy Attorney General in Clinton Administration; Representative Artur Davis (D-AL); Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano

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Commerce: Penny Pritzker, Obama finance chair and member of the Board of Global Hyatt Corporation; Jason Furman, Obama senior economic advisor Defense: Robert Gates, current Secretary of Defense; Senator Jack Reed (D-RI); Sam Nunn, former Senator and chairman of Senate Armed Services Committee; Richard Danzig, former Clinton Navy Secretary Education: James Hunt, former governor of North Carolina; Arne Duncan, CEO Chicago Public Schools; Roy Roemer, former governor of Colorado; Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius; Virginia Governor Tim Kaine Energy: Ernest Moniz, MIT professor; Philip Sharp, Resources for the Future President and former Congressman Health and Human Services (HHS): Tom Daschle, former Senate Minority Leader; Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-CT); Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius; Howard Dean, DNC Chair and former Vermont governor Homeland Security: Tim Roemer, Center for National Policy president and former Congressman; James Lee Witt, former FEMA director; Raymond Kelly, New York City Police Commissioner; Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano Housing and Urban Development: Shirley Franklin, Mayor of Atlanta; Valerie Jarrett, Obama advisor Habitat Company CEO Interior: Brian Schweitzer, Montana Governor; Representative Jay Inslee (D-WA); Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), former Senator Labor: Linda Chavez-Thompson, former AFL-CIO official; Richard Gephardt, former House Majority Leader; David Bonior, former House Democratic Whip State: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson; Susan Rice, former Clinton State Department official; Sam Nunn; Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN); Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE); Senator John Kerry (D-MA) Transportation: Jane Garvey, former FAA administrator; Steve Heminger, Executive Director of San Francisco Bay Area's Metropolitan Transportation Commission; Representative Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) Treasury: Larry Summers, Clinton Treasury Secretary; Tim Geithner, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President; Paul Volcker, Obama economic advisor and former Federal Reserve chairman
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Veterans Affairs: Tammy Duckworth, Director of the Illinois Veterans Affairs Department, Paul Reickhoff, executive director of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America; Max Cleland, former Georgia Senator; Chet Edwards (D-TX) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Kathleen McGinty, former chair of Council on Environmental Quality; Peter Lehner, Natural Resources Defense Council executive director Office of Management and Budget (OMB): Peter Orszag, Congressional Budget Office director; Representative John Spratt (D-SC), chair of House Budget Committee U.S. Trade Representative: Cal Dooley, American Chemistry Council President; Daniel Tarullo, Georgetown University Law professor U.S. Ambassador to United Nations: Caroline Kennedy; Susan Rice; Lee Hamilton, former Congressman

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DEMOCRATS PUSH REPUBLICANS DEEPER INTO POLITICAL WILDERNESS

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or the first time in decades, the majority party posted double-digit gains for consecutive elections. While Democrats gained a total of 16 seats, the wave of voter dissatisfaction also struck Democratic incumbents, altering the landscape of the 111th Congress on both sides of the aisle. Along with a surge in first-time voters, the current economic crisis led to record-breaking numbers for voter turn out. Cast against a backdrop of widespread voter dissatisfaction with Congress, the competitive 2008 Congressional elections played out across largely Republican turf. Democratic fundraising advantages, and the coattails of a prevailing Democratic candidate for President created a headwind that Republicans simply could not overcome. House Democrats picked up 18 seats (while 11 races remain too close to call), toppling Republican incumbents in every region of the country. Democrats defeated both conservative and moderate Republicans. In all, Democrats defeated 12 Republican incumbents while losing only four of their own. Gains in the 2008 elections give the Democrats an 80-seat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, a feat not achieved since the post-Watergate election in 1974. This commanding majority will afford House leaders far greater latitude in setting an agenda that will require less attention to the more conservative faction of the Democratic caucus. Democratic wins in largely Republican areas resulted in increased numbers for both the New Democrats (pro-business, pro-trade) and for the Blue Dogs (mainly rural and southern Democrats), both of whom earned strengthened political clout within the Democratic Caucus. Democrats easily held almost all of their freshman members, many who came from Republican-leaning districts.

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U.S. HOUSE ELECTION RESULTS*
CURRENT 2009

Democrat Republican
*11 Undecided Races

236 199

252 172

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HOUSE SCORE CARD
DISTRICT
Alaska-AL Arizona 03 Arizona 05 California 11 California 50 Colorado 04 Connecticut 04 Florida 08 Florida 16 Florida 21 Florida 24 Florida 25 Georgia 08 Idaho 01 Illinois 06 Illinois 10 Indiana 03 Indiana 09 Kansas 02 Kentucky 03 Michigan 07 Michigan 09

PARTY
R R D D R D # R # R # R #
D D D R

WINNER
Don Young John Shadegg Harry Mitchell Jerry McNerney Brian Bilbray Betsy Markey James Himes Alan Grayson Tom Rooney Lincoln Diaz-Balart Suzanne Kosmas Mario Diaz-Balart Jim Marshall Walter Minnick Peter Roskam Mark Kirk Mark Souder Baron Hill Lynn Jenkins John Yarmuth Mark Schauer Gary Peters

DISTRICT
Minnesota 06 Mississippi 01 Missouri 06 Nebraska 02 Nevada 02 Nevada 03 New Hampshire 01 New York 24 New York 29 North Carolina 08 Ohio 01 Ohio 02 Pennsylvania 03 Pennsylvania 04 Pennsylvania 06 Pennsylvania 10 Pennsylvania 11 Texas 22 Virginia 02 Washington 08 Wisconsin 08

PARTY
R D R R R R #
D

WINNER
Michele Bachmann Travis Childers Sam Graves Lee Terry Dean Heller Dina Titus Carol Shea-Porter Michael Arcuri Eric Massa Larry Kissell Steven Driehaus Jean Schmidt Kathy Dahlkemper Jason Altmire Jim Gerlach Chris Carney Paul Kanjorski Pete Olson Glen Nye Reichert / Burner HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
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D D R # R # R # R R #
D D D D

R

#
D R D R #
D

10

D R D D D # R #
R D

R R R D D # D R # R #
R D D

D

Steve Kagan

KEY
= Incumbent Loss

# = Democratic Pick Up # = Republican Pick Up
D R

D = Democratic-Retained Seat R = Republican-Retained Seat

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HOUSE SCORE CARD – OPEN SEATS
DISTRICT
Alabama 02 Alabama 05 Arizona 01 California 04 Florida 15 Illinois 11 Illinois 18 Kentucky 02 Maryland 01 Minnesota 03 Missouri 09 New Jersey 03

PARTY
D # D # D #
D D D

WINNER
Bobby Neal Bright Parker Griffith Ann Kirkpatrick Tom McClintock Bill Posey Debbie Halvorson Aaron Schock David Boswell Frank Kratovil Erik Paulson Blaine Luetkemeyer John Adler

DISTRICT
New Jersey 07 New Mexico 01 New Mexico 02 New York 13 New York 25 New York 26 Ohio 07 Ohio 15 Ohio 16 Virginia 11 Wyoming-AL

PARTY
R # D # D # D # D # R # R # R # D # D #
R D D D D R R R D D

WINNER
Leonard Lance Martin Heinrich Harry Teague Michael McMahon Dan Maffei Chris Lee Steve Austria Steve Stivers John Boccieri Gerry Connolly Cynthia Lummis HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
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R R D # R # D # D #
R D R D

R R

11

R

#
D

KEY
= Incumbent Loss

# = Democratic Pick Up # = Republican Pick Up
D R

D = Democratic-Retained Seat R = Republican-Retained Seat

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NORTHEAST
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Connecticut: The last Republican Member of Congress in New England, Christopher Shays (R-CT), was defeated in 2008 after surviving several bruising campaigns in 2004 and 2006. New York: As in 2006, upstate New York proved to be unfriendly territory for the remaining Republicans in the New York State delegation. Democratic candidate Dan Maffei easily won the open seat of retiring Republican Jim Walsh, while Democrat Eric Massa toppled Republican incumbent Randy Kuhl. Democrat Michael McMahon won the open seat of scandal-plagued Staten Island Representative Vito Fossella. One of the most reliable Republican seats in New York, it had also been in Republican hands for almost 30 years, but analysts predicted this seat would change party hands. Chris Lee provided the one bright spot for Republicans by holding the seat of retiring Republican Tom Reynolds. New Hampshire: In one of the most high-profile races of the cycle, Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) defeated former member Jeb Bradley. Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania served as a battleground for half-a-dozen hotly contested races. Longstanding Democratic incumbent John Murtha survived a heated race, despite very public miscues by Murtha in the final weeks of the campaign. Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorksi also staved off a challenge from local conservative Mayor Lou Barletta. Also in the Philadelphia suburbs, two Republicans, Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent, both representing swing districts, scored comfortable victories.

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MIDWEST
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Illinois: With Illinois Senator Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, Democrats anticipated an impressive night in Illinois. As expected, the Democrats picked up the seat held by retiring Republican Jerry Weller, with Democrat Debbie Halvorson’s convincing victory over the Republican candidate, millionaire Marty Ozinga. The win means the second suburban Chicago district turnover for the Democrats, who picked up the seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) in a special election held in March 2008. Republicans had several successes in Illinois, with incumbents Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam both retaining seats in suburban swing districts. Republicans also fared well in filling the seat of retiring Republican Ray Lahood, with voters electing Republican State Senator Aaron Schock. At 27 years old, Schock will be the youngest member of the House of Representatives.

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Ohio: A source of considerable excitement in the past two presidential elections, Ohio did not disappoint Tuesday evening. Democrats were eyeing the seats of three retiring Republicans and had two Republican incumbents in their cross hairs. Democrats captured the 1st district seat of incumbent Steve Chabot and the 16th district seat of Ralph Regula. Republican Steve Stivers defended the seat of retiring incumbent Deborah Pryce and Steve Austria defended the seat of retiring incumbent Dave Hobson.

SOUTH
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North Carolina: After coming within fewer than 1000 votes of defeating Republican Robin Hayes in 2006, Democrat Larry Kisell pulled out a win this year in the race for the eastern North Carolina seat. Virginia: The Republican struggle in the suburbs, a theme seen throughout the evening, continued in the northern Virginia open seat of retiring Republican Tom Davis. Democrat Gerry Connolly secured victory in a district that had been in Republican control since 1994. Texas: Voters delivered a Republican highlight in Texas, where former congressional aide Pete Olsen defeated Democrat Representative Nick Lampson in the Houston-area district of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. This outcome was anticipated, as the district is one of the most Republican in the nation. Florida: Despite the favorable political conditions for House Democrats, several Freshman Members of Congress who won Republican-leaning seats in 2006 needed to run strong races for a 2008 win. First-term Democrat Tim Mahoney, falling into this category, fell short of reelection as his own personal scandals resulted in his defeat. Off-setting the loss of Mahoney, Democrat Suzanne Kosmas easily defeated incumbent Republican Tom Feeney and Alan Grayson defeated incumbent Republican Ric Keller. Republican incumbents Mario Diaz Balart, Vern Buchanan, and Lincoln Diaz-Balart all were able to hold on and win close contests over spirited challengers.

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WEST
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Arizona: Democrats picked up the open seat of retiring Republican Rick Renzi with the election of Ann Kirkpatrick. New Mexico: All three of New Mexico's House seats were up for grabs, with the incumbent Members of Congress vying for the seat of retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici. Democrat Martin Heinrich captured the Albuquerque open seat over Republican Randy White, while Democrat Harry Teague was victorious in the open swing seat in southern New Mexico — transferring this seat to Democrats after 40 years under Republican control. Democrats retained the open seat vacated by Senator-elect Tom Udall with a victory by Ben Lujan. Idaho: Republican Representative Bill Sali, who had won a hard-fought race in 2006, remains in a tight race with Democrat and businessman Walter Minnick in the eastern Idaho district, one of the most conservative in the country. Minnick holds a small lead over Sali however, this race remains too close to call. Colorado: Democrats were able to oust another incumbent in a solid Republican district in eastern Colorado. Democrat Betsy Markey defeated three-term Republican Marilyn Musgrave, who tilted further right than her conservative district found comfortable.

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APPROACHING THE SUMMIT: THE QUEST FOR THE ELUSIVE “60” CONTINUES

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fter narrowly capturing control of the Senate by a 51–49 margin in the elections of 2006, Democrats substantially increased their margin by at least five seats for the upcoming 111th Congress beginning in January 2009. Early in this year’s election process it appeared that Republicans would suffer additional losses to those of 2006 due in large part to the growing unpopularity of President Bush. However, the ensuing nationalization of Senate and House elections during the Presidential election, along with a severe economic crisis, pushed those losses beyond what most analysts expected earlier in the year.

U.S. SENATE ELECTION RESULTS*
CURRENT 2009

Democrat Republican Independent (Caucus with Democrats)

49 49 2

54 40 2

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*4 Undecided/Subject to Recount

As in 2006, Republican moderates such as Senator John Sununu (R-NH) suffered defeat. However, Democrats failed in their bid to defeat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) or conservative Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss. Open seats where Republican incumbents retired added to the loss of seats in swing states such as New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia. Despite significant gains, Democrats will not secure a filibuster-proof majority of 60. Key questions remain in terms of the makeup of the next Senate. The margin of control remains uncertain, with Senate races in Alaska, Minnesota, and Oregon still deadlocked, and speculation swirling over whether Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) will elect to caucus with Republicans or formally switch parties after his public support of Senator John McCain. In Illinois, Governor Rob Blagojevich will name a replacement for President-Elect Obama. While Blagojevich will almost certainly name a Democrat to fill the seat, his unpredictable approach to governing leaves even the short list in doubt. Potential replacements include Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr., Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, and current Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan.

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SENATE SCORE CARD
STATE Alaska Alabama Arkansas Colorado Delaware1 Georgia Iowa Idaho Illinios Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Massachusetts Maine Michigan Minnesota2 Mississippi Mississippi D R D R R D D R D R R R R D PARTY WINNER Stevens / Begich Jeff Sessions Mark Pryor Mark Udall Joe Biden Chambliss / Martin Tom Harkin Jim Risch Dick Durbin Pat Roberts Mitch McConnell Mary Landrieu John Kerry Susan Collins Carl Levin Norm Coleman Thad Cochran Roger Wicker STATE Montana Nebraska* New Jersey New Hampshire PARTY D R D
D

WINNER Max Baucus Mike Johanns Frank Lautenberg Jean Shaheen Tom Udall Kay Hagan James Inhofe Smith / Merkley

#
D

D

# New Mexico* # North Carolina #
D D

Oklahoma Oregon Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennesse Texas Virginia* West Virginia Wyoming Wyoming

R

D R D R R

Jack Reed Lindsey Graham Tim Johnson Lamar Alexander John Cornyn Mark Warner Jay Rockefeller John Barrasso Mike Enzi

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#
D

D R R

KEY
= Incumbent Loss

*Open Race

# = Democratic Pick Up # = Republican Pick Up # = Independent Pick Up
D R I

D = Democratic-Retained Seat R = Republican-Retained Seat I = Independent-Retained Seat

Delaware: With Joe Biden’s election as Vice President, incoming Delaware Governor Jack Markell will be required to appoint a replacement. Delaware does not require that the appointee come from the same political party.
1 2

Subject to mandatory recount

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KEY RACES
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Virginia: With the retirement of Senator John Warner (R-VA), this race was never in doubt. The Democratic candidate, former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA), has the highest popularity of any public official in the commonwealth by far. He won by 30 points in a former red state whose demographics continue to trend towards the Democrats. New Mexico: Here again, the retirement of Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) combined with the primary victory of the very conservative Congressman Steve Pearce (R-NM) led to a Democratic pick up. Popular Congressman Tom Udall (D-NM) who had previously served two terms as state Attorney General, won by a decisive margin. Minnesota: The fiercely independent state of Minnesota created a unique environment where third-party candidate Dean Barkley gained 15% of the vote, leaving Incumbent Norm Coleman (R) with a slim lead over challenger Al Franken in this race that is headed to a recount. Colorado: The retirement of another Republican incumbent, Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO), results in another Democratic pick up. Senator-elect Tom Udall will be joined in the 111th Congress by his cousin, Congressman Mark Udall. This election, in which Udall was pitted against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R-CO), was very close until September when Udall began to pull away. New Hampshire: In a rematch of their 2002 election, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) reversed the result of the earlier campaign and defeated Senator John Sununu (R-NH) by a comfortable margin. It was a tough and hard-fought campaign, as in 2002, but Sununu could not overcome the sizable margin of the Obama victory in New Hampshire, nor the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican party in general. Oregon: With the McCain campaign not competing in Oregon, Senator Gordon Smith (R-OR) was left to fend for himself in a state that heavily supported President-elect Obama. A strong third-party showing and strong campaign has given the incumbent Smith a chance at victory. North Carolina: Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) defeated Senator Elizabeth Dole to pick up a seat for Democrats that no one thought was vulnerable at the beginning of 2008. Hagan’s campaign focused through the summer of 2008 on Senator Dole’s absence from the state for the prior five years of her term. The Hagan campaign also benefited from a high turnout by African-American voters who support Barack Obama.

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Alaska: Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK), already locked in a tight race with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D-AK), was found guilty of ethics violations in a federal court one week from election day. Even so, the power of incumbency and a concerted appeal to voters has kept this race close, and it remains undecided the day after the election. Delaware: Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) was in the rare position of running for re-election along with being on the Democratic ticket for Vice President. With the Obama/Biden victory, and Biden’s expected victory in his Senate race, Biden must resign his Senate seat before taking the oath on January 20, 2009. In Delaware, the governor appoints an interim Senator. Since current Governor and the Governor-elect are Democrats, Delaware will remain in Democratic hands. Louisiana: Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) was seen as the only Democratic incumbent who could potentially lose her re-election bid. In the closing weeks of the race, however, Landrieu pulled ahead and won by a convincing 52–42 percent margin.

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BACK TO THE FUTURE: RESURGENCE OF THE 20TH CENTURY DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS

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wakening with the reality of their hard-sought emboldened majorities, Democratic leaders now face the task of shaping how they will govern in the 111th Congress. The dynamic of largely working as a check against the Bush Administration’s policy platform now shifts to how — and to what degree — the Congress will serve as the engine for the Obama Administration’s promised train of policy accomplishment. And yet, informed by the 1994 Republican Revolution (now definitively and resoundingly unwound by the electorate), there are many Democrats this morning urging prudent self-caution and steady progress rather than euphorically lurching into legislative action. With an eye already cast on 2010, Democrats do not want a repeat of the difficult lessons learned in 1994, when Republicans gained 54 House and 10 Senate seats after two hubris-filled years of Democratic control of the White House and Congress.

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But make no mistake: the mandate of this November 4th has given Democratic leaders the political capital and authority to move swiftly and actively. Americans have closed the crossing gates to governmental absentia, and endorsed a more intimate relationship between government and all aspects of economic and social life. And it will be Democrats who pick the stations, set the speed, and ride the rails on which the forthcoming legislative bullet trains will run.

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HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP
The strong Democratic performance in both open and contested House seats proved to be a crowning achievement for a House Leadership team that has evinced pride in its perceived discipline. Speaker Pelosi’s cabinet had been expected to remain virtually unchanged. However, the expected announcement of current Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) to be White House Chief of Staff would create unanticipated changes and a possible contest at a time when Leadership had hoped to continue with its status-quo successful dynamic.

DEMOCRATIC HOUSE LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES
POSITION Speaker Majority Leader Majority Whip Caucus Chairman DEMOCRAT Nancy Pelosi (CA) Steny Hoyer (MD) James Clyburn (SC) Chris Van Hollen (MD) John Larson (CT) Xavier Becerra (CA) Joe Crowley (NY) Chris Van Hollen (MD) Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL)

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DCCC

HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP
As the majority of the nation’s lawmakers tilt left, the Republican House Conference stands poised to drive hard to the right. The expectations are that the Republican leadership will reflect this ideological shift and current leaders seen as too moderate will be tossed aside. To date, all eyes have been trained on Representative Eric Cantor (R-VA.), currently the Chief Deputy Minority Whip. Cantor is perceived to be the only lawmaker who could mount a credible challenge to current Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), who announced his intention to remain as Leader earlier today. However, Cantor may instead choose to run for Minority Whip, currently occupied by Representative Roy Blunt (R-MO), whose leadership fate is uncertain. Current Conference Chairman Adam Putnam (R-FL) announced last evening that he would not seek re-election to his leadership post. Representative Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), who has chaired the conservative Republican Study Committee during the 110th Congress, is expected to seek the Conference Chairmanship.

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REPUBLICAN HOUSE LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES
POSITION Minority Leader Minority Whip Chief Deputy Whip Conference Chairman REPUBLICAN John Boehner (OH) Eric Cantor (VA) Kay Granger (TX) Paul Ryan (WI) Jeb Hensarling (TX) Marsha Blackburn (TN) Mike Pence (IN) Open John Carter (TX) Kevin McCarthy (CA) Pete Sessions (TX) Kay Granger (TX)

Conference Vice Chairman Conference Secretary NRCC

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EXPANDED HOUSE MAJORITY
The Democratic majority in the House is growing — making alliances, coalitions, and caucuses even more important, as well as heightening the possibilities of fault lines amidst the Democratic earthquake. The Congressional Progressive Caucus (71 members), Congressional Hispanic Caucus (21 members), and the Congressional Black Caucus (41 members*) are all well-known entities. The fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition (49 members) has not only been a fundraising juggernaut, but also a sought-after endorsement for Congressional candidates. One renewed group looking to grow its membership and role in the House is the New Democrat Coalition (58 members). The New Democrats separate themselves from other Democratic alliances because they tend to represent the high-growth suburban districts with independent-minded voters that Democrats plan to target to build a lasting majority. With Obama in the White House, New Democrats will serve as a business-friendly minus the strict “pay-as-you-go” check on the more liberal impulses of a party suddenly in control of all levels of power. The New Democrat PAC has grown from $636,400 in 2006 to $1.4 million in 2008 and endorsed 18 candidates this cycle. Their investment paid off with at least a dozen net new members joining their ranks in January.

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The Blue Dogs are and will continue to be the fiscal hawk of the party. The recent vote on the “rescue package,” however, tested their gumption. The Blue Dogs can continue to draw a line in the sand with their House Leadership on pay-go, however the Senate will consider legislation that is not paid for — or not paid for with an acceptable offset — leaving the Blue Dogs fractured. Whether the 111th Congress could find the Blue Dogs considering a bipartisan alliance with House Republicans on pay-go and balancing the budget remains to be seen. The 49 Blue Dogs raised $2.5 million this cycle, doubling their $1.2 million haul from 2006. The group endorsed 11 candidates for Congress, including for the first time a Senate candidate, Mark Warner (D-VA), the new junior senator of Virginia. However, with several incumbent Blue Dog losses to Republican challengers yesterday, it appears that their coalition stands to gain at most only 2 new members in the new Congress.

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POTENTIAL COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP — HOUSE
COMMITTEE Agriculture Appropriations Armed Services Budget Education and Labor Energy and Commerce Financial Services Foreign Affairs Homeland Security House Administration Judiciary Natural Resources POTENTIAL CHAIR Collin Peterson (MN) David Obey (WI) Ike Skelton (MO) John Spratt (SC) George Miller (CA) John Dingell (MI) Barney Frank (MA) Howard Berman (CA) Bennie Thompson (MS) POTENTIAL RANKING MEMBER Bob Goodlatte (VA) Jerry Lewis (CA) Mac Thornberry (TX) Paul Ryan (WI) Buck McKeon (CA) Joe Barton (TX) Spencer Bachus (AL) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL) Peter King (NY)

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Juanita Millender-McDonald (CA) Vern Ehlers (MI) John Conyers (MI) Nick Rahall (WV) Lamar Smith (TX) Elton Gallegly (CA) John Duncan (TN) Dan Burton (IN) David Dreier (CA) Ralph Hall (TX) Sam Graves (MO) Todd Akin (MO) Doc Hastings (WA) John Mica (FL) Steve Buyer (IN) Dave Camp (MI) Wally Herger (CA) Pete Hoekstra (MI) Jim Sensenbrenner (WI)

Oversight and Government Reform Henry Waxman (CA) Rules Science and Technology Small Business Standards of Official Conduct (Ethics) Transportation and Infrastructure Veterans' Affairs Ways and Means Select Intelligence Select Energy Independence and Global Warming Louise Slaughter (NY) Bart Gordon (TN) Nydia Velázquez (NY) Gene Green (TX) Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA) Jim Oberstar (MN) Bob Filner (CA) Charlie Rangel (NY) Silvestre Reyes (TX) Ed Markey (MA)

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SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP
Senate Democratic leadership will remain largely the same. Majority Leader Reid, up for re-election in 2010, will preside over a fortified Democratic Caucus that will still need to navigate the Senate’s parliamentary rules that mandate collaboration with the minority party. DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-NY), hailed as the great architect of the Democrat’s Senate assurgency, may decide to not serve a third term, which could pave the way for Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) to replace him.

DEMOCRATIC SENATE LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES
POSITION Majority Leader Majority Whip DSCC DEMOCRAT Harry Reid (NV) Dick Durbin (IL)
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Chuck Schumer (NY) Robert Menendez (NJ)

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SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) fended off a strong challenge and is expected to remain Minority Leader and the rest of the Republican leadership should remain intact. McConnell also will assume the mantel of the highest-ranking national Republican, and be a key player in rebuilding the G.O.P.’s brand and crafting its vision over the next two years.

REPUBLICAN SENATE LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES
POSITION Minority Leader Minority Whip Conference Chairman NRSC REPUBLICAN Mitch McConnell (KY) Jon Kyl (AZ) Lamar Alexander (TN) John Ensign (NV)

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POTENTIAL COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP — SENATE
COMMITTEE Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Appropriations POTENTIAL CHAIR Tom Harkin (IA) Blanche Lincoln (AR) Robert Byrd (WV) Daniel Inouye (HI) Harry Reid (NV-Doubtful)) Carl Levin (MI) Chris Dodd (CT) Tim Johnson (SD) Jack Reed (RI) Kent Conrad (ND) Daniel Inouye (HI) John Rockefeller (WV) Byron Dorgan (SD) Jeff Bingaman (NM) Barbara Boxer (CA) Max Baucus (MT) John Kerry (MA) Russ Feingold (WI) Ted Kennedy (MA) Joe Lieberman (CT) Daniel Akaka (HI) Tom Carper (DE) Pat Leahy (VT) Dianne Feinstein (CA) Charles Schumer(NY) John Kerry (MA) Mary Landrieu (LA) Daniel Akaka (HI) John Rockefeller (WV) Patty Murray (WA) Byron Dorgan (ND) Maria Cantwell (WA) Barbara Boxer (CA) John Rockefeller (WV) Dianne Feinsten (CA) Ron Wyden (OR) Herb Kohl (WI) POTENTIAL RANKING MEMBER Saxby Chambliss Pat Roberts (KS) Thad Cochran (MS)

Armed Services Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs

John McCain (AZ) Richard Shelby (AL)

Budget Commerce, Science and Transportation Energy and Natural Resources Environment and Public Works Finance Foreign Relations Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Judiciary Rules and Administration Small Business and Entrepreneurship Veterans' Affairs

Judd Gregg (NH) Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)

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Lisa Murkowski (AK) Richard Burr (NC) Jim Inhofe (OK) Chuck Grassley (IA) Richard Lugar (IA) Mike Enzi (WY) Susan Collins (ME)

Arlen Specter (PA) Bob Bennett (UT) Olympia Snowe (ME) Richard Burr (NC) Johnny Isakson (GA) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Tom Coburn (OK) John Cornyn (TX) Kit Bond (MO)

Indian Affairs Select Ethics Select Intelligence

Special Aging

Mel Martinez (FL) David Vitter (LA)

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THE 111TH CONGRESS — KEY ISSUES
Economy and Financial Services: “It’s the economy stupid!” — yesteryear’s catch phrase foreshadowed the very top-of-mind issue about which the majority of voters cared the most in the closing month of the campaign. With the backdrop of families suffering the shocks of then-rising gas and consumer prices and foreclosure threats, the stock markets gyrating wildly on a daily basis, and the constant daily drumbeat of yet another previously inconceivable federal governmental intervention to stem the economic turmoil, voters spoke decisively about where they sought focus. The current realities ensure without question that the 111th Congress will have plenty of economic and financial market issues on its legislative buffet. Continued recessionary market pressures, poor economic reports, declining home values and home sales, and additional corporate struggles or failures are all anticipated to cloud the First 100 Days. In addition to continued implementation and Congressional oversight of the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), where governmental action — and inaction — is already shaping winners and losers in the shake-out, 2009 will bring significant legislative activity designed to overhaul the regulatory structure of the U.S. financial services industry. Virtually every key Congressional and Administration stakeholder has called for a review — with most favoring a hatchet — rather than a scalpel-based approach to reform. Congress will also redouble its already activist oversight agenda, calling new Committee hearings to examine the causes of the economic turmoil, the effects on American citizens and business, the global interconnections, the need for regulatory reform, and, of course, the sources of blame for the financial plight. The new Congress will certainly echo several themes and topics that have emerged from the recent oversight examinations, including the call for increased transparency; enhanced consumer protections; accounting standards modification; short selling; credit rating agencies; development of a regulatory scheme for credit-default swaps; reform of the state-based insurance regulatory system; and the creation of federal-regulatory tools to enhance cooperation across federal financial regulators. Democratic priorities will also draw immediate attention to addressing consumer-oriented concerns, including foreclosure prevention and mitigation, bankruptcy reform, predatory lending, and credit lending practices. The New Energy Economy: Notwithstanding intrinsic economic challenges, a lead focus for the 111th Congress will be advancing the Obama Administration’s priorities on energy security, cleantech and renewable alternatives, and climate change policy. Comprehensive federal action will increasingly become the goal as states forge ahead with the development of their own initiatives and regulations in the absence of a chosen federal approach. The components of legislative proposals offered in 2008, the Obama campaign’s energy platform, the economy, and the dynamics among key players will provide a framework as Congress crafts the outline for the new energy economy in the early days of 2009.

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Mounting concerns over energy independence and global warming will direct attention towards proposals that promote “green-collar” jobs and renewable energy sources like wind, solar, geothermal, natural gas, and nuclear. Other issues certain to be intrinsic to the discussion include: requirements for clean, high-mileage, next-generation vehicles; deployment of clean-coal technology; reduction of U.S. oil imports; and capping carbon emissions. A renewed interest in a renewable electricity standard also has surfaced, accompanied by proposals for the expansion of the interstate electricity grid and integration of smart-grid capabilities. The expected result of any legislation passed in 2009 is an enhanced carbon market. President-elect Obama’s approach to climate change is expected to be stricter then the Boxer-Lieberman-Warner bill, with more aggressive cuts in emissions and the auctioning of all credits. The oil and gas industry can expect further reductions to tax credits as lawmakers seek funds to pay for new energy proposals, and industry may see windfall tax increases. The new Administration must resolve the regulation of air-quality standards in light of the D.C. Circuit’s opinion vacating the EPA’s Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), designed to assist states in meeting Clean Air Act requirements. In September, Congress lifted the moratorium on offshore drilling and approved the extension of tax incentives for renewable energy. In 2009, Congress will address regulation of the energy market, including speculation and regulation of oil companies. While oil and gas prices have dropped in recent weeks, increased regulation in these key energy areas will occur under a Democratic Congress and President Obama. Health Care: Health-care reform will remain a top priority of the Democratic Congress. With a rising uninsured population, increased costs across the board, and lingering concerns regarding the quality and affordability of the Medicare and Medicaid entitlement programs against the aging population, Congressional leaders have a tall task ahead to enact any meaningful healthcare reform. The desire exists for broad changes to the health care delivery system; however, the economic and federal budget situation may prevent the large-scale reform that many Congressional leaders crave. Democratic majorities in the House and Senate will ensure that health-care reform is tackled from the left. How far left these proposals may go depends on the ability of policymakers to come to an agreement on “how” and “what” health-care reform will look like, and who will pay for it. While large-scale health-care reform may not occur, significant piece-by-piece actions may take place, which alter the landscape of health-care for the foreseeable future. Democratic Congressional health care leaders are currently drafting proposals, Committees of jurisdiction have been laying the foundation for months with hearings and debates, and the Presidential candidates offered up their proposals — all in the hopes of having a seat at the table.

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Pressing issues will face the 111th Congress almost immediately, including reauthorization of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) and the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule. Other issues will almost certainly be discussed in 2009, including health-care information technology; quality and pay-for-performance; comparative effectiveness research; generic biologics; chronic-disease management; health insurance regulatory reform; and regulation of FDA and prescription drugs. The desire for major health-care reform coupled with the lack of resources and Congressional requirements to offset new spending with increased revenues or spending cuts will inevitably create deep tension with health care and industry organizations that face both threats and opportunities in this new environment. Tax: Unlike the prior tax reform of 1986, it is unlikely that the Administration will attempt to pass one large bill tax reform proposal. Both the Chairmen of the House Committee on Ways and Means and the Senate Committee on Finance favor an approach that would encompass as many as five or six individual tax policy bills. The tax reform process will be spread over the two years of the 111th Congress with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts in 2010 providing a powerful impetus to move quickly. The expectation is for even more dramatic changes to the tax code than occurred in 1986 including an increase in the top marginal tax rate from 35% to 39.6% and an increase in the tax rate for long-term capital gains from 15% to 20%. Budget: Underlying the aggressive activist agenda of the Democratic Congress is the reality that the federal budget is under severe strain, deeply exacerbated by the TARP stabilization efforts. Either federal spending must come down, taxes must increase, or both must occur before Democrats can enact favored policies. Unless a sharp economic turnaround occurs, the bleak budget situation may ultimately temper with stark clarity the campaign trail promises and gravitate toward passage of incremental reforms.

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FROM WASHINGTON TO THE STATES: NAVIGATING THE NEW STATE LANDSCAPE
Democrats headed into the election controlling the governor’s mansion in 28 states, as opposed to the Republicans’ 22. Eight races featured incumbents, four in each party. These elections offered four open seats with two Democrats (Delaware and North Carolina) and one Republican (Missouri) retiring from the governor’s office. Of the states that cast ballots for governor, seven elected Democrats, while four elected Republicans, resulting in a net gain of one governor for the Democratic Party. Democrats prevailed in all of the open races, picking up a seat in Missouri, with Democratic fourterm Attorney General Jay Nixon replacing retiring Republican Governor Matt Blunt. In North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue beat out the Republican Mayor of Charlotte, Pat McCrory, and in Delaware, State Treasurer Democrat Jack Markell’s win places him as the first Jewish governor of Delaware.

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GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT
CURRENT 2009

Democrat Republican

28 22

29 21

Incumbent Governors Brian Schweitzer (D-MT), John Lynch (D-NH), Jon Huntsman (R-UT), and John Hoeven (R-ND) all expectedly won re-election in their respective states. Governor Hoeven has served as governor of North Dakota since 2000, making him the nation’s longest-serving governor. The Democratic swing in Indiana at the end of the election season threw some doubt on incumbent Governor Mitch Daniels’ fate, but he won re-election and will continue to serve as the Republican governor. Vermont’s Republican Governor Jim Douglas retained his seat as well. Incumbent Democrats in Washington and West Virginia also held onto their seats, with Christine Gregoire and Joe Manchin, respectively, rounding out the eight victorious gubernatorial incumbents.

STATES
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BALLOT INITIATIVES
This year’s elections included 153 ballot measures at the state level, with Colorado having the highest number at 14, followed by California and Oregon, each with 12. Proposals on state ballots targeted a range of social issues, and also addressed gambling, affirmative action, immigration, marijuana possession, animal rights and “green” issues, among others. Voter reaction to these hot-topic issues mainly derived from within each state, as Presidential candidates kept their distance from the social issues that headlined the ballot measures, such as same-sex marriage, abortion, and stem-cell research. A survey of the results displays no discernible trend of conservatism or liberalism. On the specific issue of same-sex marriage, three states offered and passed proposals banning same-sex marriage: Arizona, California and Florida. In recent years, such bans have frequently appeared on state ballots, with over half the states having now voted on such a proposal. In the past, 29 of the 30 state proposals to ban same-sex marriage have succeeded. Heading into the election, Arizona was the only state to reject a ban, however this year, Arizona voters approved the measure. The most high-profile of this year’s crop was California’s Proposition 8 eliminating the right of same-sex couples to marry, which remains too close to call. If rejected, the state Supreme Court ruling permitting same-sex marriage would remain intact. Also along socially conservative lines, voters in Arkansas approved a proposal to preclude unmarried couples from adopting or fostering a child. Voters in California, Colorado, and South Dakota were less conservative with respect to abortionrelated measures offered by each state. The failure of South Dakota’s abortion referendum precludes a constitutional challenge in the Supreme Court. Washington passed a law making doctor-assisted suicide easier, similar to a proposal passed in Oregon in 1994. Such initiatives have been rejected in California, Michigan, and Maine. This year, Michigan offered a proposal to permit human embryo and human embryonic stem cell research, which passed. Immigration-related initiatives met a mixed fate. Missouri established English as its official language, however, Arizona rejected a measure related to employer knowledge of an employee’s authorized status, and Oregon failed to pass a provision that would prohibit teaching school in a language other than English for more than two years. Two states offered measures proposing to abolish affirmative action in state jobs and in education — Colorado and Nebraska. While the Nebraska measure remains undecided, Colorado joins California, Washington, and most recently, Michigan in passing such a proposal. Colorado voters rejected a “right to work” initiative, which would have prevented employers from requiring union membership for union dues payment.

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Though climate change and energy promise to remain at the policy forefront in 2009, ballot measures at the state level did not receive resounding approval. Three states had renewable energy initiatives on the 2008 ballot: California, Missouri, and Colorado. Missouri passed a measure requiring utilities to produce more renewable energy, while California voters rejected a similar, though more strict proposal. Colorado voters rejected an increase in taxes paid by the oil and gas industry, which would have directed 10% of the new revenue to programs promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. Eight states considered gambling and lottery-related measures, which also were met with a mix of successes and defeats. Arizona, Colorado, and Maryland voters approved measures favoring gaming, while voters in Maine and Ohio rejected proposals for a new casino. In its third attempt in recent years, Massachusetts finally succeeded in passing a prohibition on dog racing. Massachusetts also offered a repeat measure to abolish the state income tax. This initiative appeared on the ballot in 2002, when tax supporters dismissed it as outlandish and were shocked at the high percentage of voter support. This year, an aggressive campaign to preserve the state’s income tax resulted in a repeat failure of the measure. While ballot initiatives historically have resulted in a small increase (three to five percent) in voter turnout, there is little control over what type of voter the measures motivate. This year, as opposed to 2004, no swing state had a single controversial issue that would attract a significant party-affiliated group of voters. Most states’ ballot measures in the 2008 election were comprised of a mix of issues, some of which spoke to Republicans, some to Democrats, and yet others which were party-neutral. This made it difficult to predict the impact of ballot measures on voter and party turnout, and thus the trickle-down effect on turnout for the Presidential race.

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STATES
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STATE SCORE CARD
STATE DE DE IN IN IN MO MO MO MO MO MT MT MT MT NC NC NC NC NC NC ND ND ND ND ND ND NH OH OR OR OR RACE Governor* Lt. Governor* Governor Lt. Governor Attorney General* Governor* Lt. Governor Attorney General* Secretary of State Treasurer* Governor Lt. Governor Attorney General* Secretary of State Governor* Lt. Governor* Attorney General Secretary of State State Superintendent State Auditor Governor Lt. Governor Insurance Comissioner State Superintendent Treasurer State Auditor Governor Attorney General* Attorney General* Secretary of State* Treasurer* PARTY WINNER Jack Markell Matt Denn Mitch Daniels Becky Skillman Greg Zoeller Jay Nixon Peter Kinder Chris Koster Robin Carnahan Clint Zweifel Brian Schweitzer John Bohlinger Steve Bullock Linda McCulloch Beverly Perdue Walter Dalton Roy Cooper Elaine Marshall June Atkinson Beth Wood John Hoeven Jack Dalrymple Adam Hamm Wayne Sanstead Kelly Schmidt Bob Peterson John Lynch Richard Cordray John Kroger Kate Brown Ben Westlund

# #
D D

R R

# # R # D #
R D D D

D D

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STATES
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# # D # D
D D D

#
D

D D R R R D R R

D D

# # #
D D D

KEY
= Incumbent Loss

*Open Race

# = Democratic Pick Up # = Republican Pick Up # = Independent Pick Up
D R I

D = Democratic-Retained Seat R = Republican-Retained Seat I = Independent-Retained Seat

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STATE SCORE CARD
STATE PA PA PA PR PR UT UT UT UT UT VT VT VT VT VT VT WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WV WV WV RACE Attorney General Treasurer* State Auditor Governor Resident Commissioner Governor Lt. Governor Attorney General Treasurer* State Auditor Governor Lt. Governor Attorney General Secretary of State Treasuer State Auditor Governor Lt. Governor Attorney General Insurance Commissioner Secretary of State Sup. of Public Instruction Treasurer* State Auditor Lands Commissioner Governor Lt. Governor Attorney General PARTY WINNER Tom Corbett Tom Ellis Jack Wagner Luis Fortuno (New Progressive Party) Pedro Pierluisi (New Progressive Party) Jon Huntsman Gary R. Herbert Mark Shurleff Richard Ellis Auston Johnson James Douglas Brian Dubie William Sorrell Deb Markowitz Jeb Spaulding Tom Salmon Christine Gregorie Brad Owen Rob McKenna Mike Kreidler Sam Reed Randy Dorn Jim McIntire Brian Sonntag Peter Goldmark Russ Weeks Earl Ray Tomblin Darrell McGraw R
R

# D
NPR NPR R R R
R

# R
R R D D D D D D R D R – D D
D R

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STATES
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# R # D
D

KEY
= Incumbent Loss

*Open Race

# = Democratic Pick Up # = Republican Pick Up # = Independent Pick Up
D R I

D = Democratic-Retained Seat R = Republican-Retained Seat I = Independent-Retained Seat

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STATE LEGISLATURES
This year, 79 percent of the total legislative seats in the U.S. were up for re-election, a total of 5,824 seats across 44 states. With so few gubernatorial races occurring this year, the legislative elections provided a significant means for gaining or maintaining control at the state level. Due to the large gain of legislative seats in the last election cycle, Democrats had little room to increase their numbers. In 2006, Democrats picked up over 325 seats and 10 legislative chambers, and held just under 55 percent of all legislative seats heading into the 2008 elections. “Get-out-the-vote” efforts by the presidential campaigns may have helped decide the fate of state legislative races in 2008, with record-breaking turnout across the country. Historically, the presidential race creates a notable coattail effect. On average, the victorious party in the White House race adds over 125 state legislative seats in its favor. The trend continued this year, as Democrats increased the number of states in which they have control over both chambers from 23 to 27, leaving Republicans in control of both chambers in 14 states. In five states, party control is divided. As for the remaining states, Indiana and Montana remain undecided, the Alaska Senate consists of a 10-10 split, and Nebraska maintains a unicameral legislature. Of the 84 legislative chambers holding elections this year, 28 were considered battlegrounds, with either party having the opportunity to emerge with a majority. With most of the results in, party control has turned over in nine chambers: five chambers have switched from Republican to Democrat; four chambers have switched from Democrat to Republican. Majorities remain in flux in Indiana and Montana, where undecided seats could hand control to either party. Both Democrats and Republicans had notable victories, as the Democrats seized control of the Ohio House and Wisconsin Assembly, chambers that had been in the hands of Republicans since 1994. Republicans unexpectedly appear to have taken control of the Tennessee House for the first time since 1970, and have taken the Oklahoma Senate for the first time in the state’s history. Of particular importance, the house chamber in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas, as well as the New York Senate, were all on close watch this election. Legislative control in these chambers holds the potential to have a substantial impact on the 2011 redistricting of U.S. House delegations. The 2008 elections left party control in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania split between the chambers. Republicans in Texas control both chambers, and the Democrats command the New York Senate. Redistricting responsibility also accompanies victory in the state senates, as the 642 senate seats in 30 states filled this year will not be up again until after the 2010 census and the commencement of redistricting in 2011. These senators will play a chief role in the nation’s politics as they assist in redrawing boundaries for congressional and state legislative districts that will be used for the next decade.

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SONNENSCHEIN CONTACTS
For more information about Election Insight 2008 or to discuss your business priorities or strategic planning for 2009, please contact Mike McNamara (202.408.6430 or mmcnamara@sonnenschein.com), Todd Weiss (202.408.9109 or tweiss@sonnenschein.com), or your regular Sonnenschein contact. Sonnenschein with 700 lawyers and other professionals in 15 offices in the U.S. and Europe, and a global reach throughout the Americas, Asia, and the Middle East, serves the legal and public interest needs of many of the world’s best-known and most admired businesses, nonprofits and individuals.

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These materials should not be considered as, or as a substitute for, legal advice and they are not intended to nor do they create an attorney-client relationship. Because the materials included here are general, they may not apply to your individual legal or factual circumstances. You should not take (or refrain from taking) any action based on the information you obtain from this document without first obtaining professional counsel and you should not send us confidential information without first speaking to one of our attorneys and receiving explicit authorization to do so. This outlook has been developed based on the most currently available polling data from a range of sources. As such it is subject to interpretation, and is necessarily based on data that may be incomplete.

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A Reminder to Join Us for

ELECTION

2008
THE DAY AFTER
A Look at Who Won, Who Lost and What it Means For You
In the immediate aftermath of election night, two leading Washington insiders share their insights on the impact of the 2008 elections for the business and investment communities. Join us for an incisive analysis of the results and implications for the economy, your business and the nation featuring:

Joe Andrew Former Chairman, Democratic National Committee

Fred McClure Former Head of White House Legislative Affairs

Live Webinar TODAY Wednesday, November 5, 2008 4:00 pm to 5:00 pm EST Live New York City Event TODAY Wednesday, November 5, 2008 5:00pm to 7:00 pm EST 1221 Avenue of the Americas New York, NY Live Chicago Event Thursday, November 6, 2008 8:30 pm to 10:00 pm CST 7800 Sears Tower, 78th Floor Chicago, IL Live San Francisco Event Thursday, November 6, 2008 5:30 pm to 7:30 pm PST 525 Market Street, 26th Floor San Francisco, CA

To RSVP for any of these events, please contact RSVP@sonnenschein.com

Public Law & Policy Strategies Group
Successfully advancing policy and business agendas depends on having access to accurate legal, political and regulatory intelligence, knowing how best to leverage that information, and being able to communicate an effective message. We are recognized for delivering timely guidance, substantive counsel, and most importantly, results on legislative, regulatory, and transactional initiatives that accomplish priority outcomes for U.S. and international clients. Our diverse, energetic practice of knowledgeable professionals offers clients comprehensive experience at the highest levels. Offering a bipartisan focus, our national team of specialists includes a former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, former members of Congress, a former head of White House Legislative Affairs, as well as diplomats, chiefs of staff, legislative directors, veteran political and communications strategists, and other senior advisors from both sides of the political aisle.
Advocacy Services

Clients benefit from the substantial legal, political and public affairs expertise of our Advocacy Services Practice. We develop and implement comprehensive public policy advocacy campaigns to appropriately impact legislative and regulatory bodies at every level. We have achieved countless successes before Congress, the Executive Branch, state legislatures, as well as foreign governments and international organizations. Our Advisory Services Practice develops and implements aggressive strategies to shepherd significant transactions and negotiations, secure regulatory approval of mergers and acquisitions, manage litigation risk, and overcome potential legislative, and regulatory impediments to business decisions. We offer clients seasoned legal advisors who combine business savvy with deep political acumen. On a uniquely integrated basis, we deploy key components of a political campaign to boardroom decision making in order to deliver results. Through our pioneering Information Capital & Political Intelligence Practice, our team provides insight, analysis, and evaluation that separates rhetoric from reality for those involved in the public and private equity markets. By knowing the legislative and political “pulse” in local, national and foreign capitals, we present clients with valuable, insightful information so they can make prudent decisions in advance of the traditional news cycle. Our Global Services Practice offers clients operating in the global economy a broad range of business and legal consulting services focused at the intersection of public, private and nonprofit sectors. Clients have access to skilled lawyers, policy and trade professionals, lobbyists and political analysts, as well as communications strategists with the experience necessary to address their domestic and international legal, regulatory and investment needs across borders and industries. The ramifications of misunderstanding federal and state laws governing election and campaign-related activities can be significant for any organization. To help educate and protect our clients, our Compliance Practice helps navigate the legal process for everything from political participation and prohibitions on financial service entities, to fundraising strategies and other tools needed to build a more successful PAC. We counsel clients on developing and implementing risk management plans for compliance with new federal and state lobbying disclosure and campaign finance laws.

Advisory Services

Information Capital & Political Intelligence Global Services

Compliance Practice

Strategic Companies facing mass litigation, heavy regulation, major events, and entities advocating for legislative change that need to safeCommunications guard their reputations, regularly turn to our Strategic Communications & Public Affairs team to design and implement winning & Public Affairs communications programs and to cultivate key relationships. Our services range from providing media relations, litigation and crisis

communications, grassroots advocacy, coalition development and management, to message and credibility testing.
Energy & Regulated Industries

Our Energy & Regulated Industries practice offers comprehensive expertise in all areas of public law, policy and strategic communications relevant to electricity and other utilities, the oil and gas industries, energy consumers, and the investment community. Our command of the federal legislative and regulatory processes gives our clients access to innovative policy-making solutions and top-level decision-makers. Our understanding of the complex regulatory, transactional, legislative, and litigation environments surrounding regulated industries enables us to help clients develop or restructure competitive strategies before Congress and state legislatures, regulatory agencies, and in the markets.

Innovative, successful and principled. At the intersection of business, law, policy, and politics, we collaborate with our colleagues

to leverage their varied and expert regulatory, financial, political, and legal knowledge, as well as their professional relationships. Our focus is delivering results and achieving success. We bring credibility and depth to addressing our clients’ most critical issues and needs, maximizing opportunities, and providing an unparalleled level of service.

Public Law & Policy Strategies Group

http://plps.sonnenschein.com


								
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